Coronavirus pandemic

[roadman65]

I have both the freedom to go to Home Depot, Target, the bank (currently closed for construction), and the grocery store and the freedom to not wear a mask.  There is no either-or situation going on.

There is an either-or situation going on here, because 99% of indoor public places that have reopened have done so with a mandate requiring a face covering while inside.

Only in some states. It's true where I live, but not where kphoger lives.

Yes, that was my point, but I see where the confusion came in: I was saying "here" in reference to my location, not "here" as in this thread.

Here (in Upstate NY) I do have to wear a mask, but I think it's worth it if places can reopen, and doing it doesn't mean I am against freedom or want the government to always tell me what to do.

I do not like this whole thing and nothing against these as much as we do not have time to weigh in on this whole thing.  I for one do not trust the news as that they care more about their own survival, however it is what it is. This could not happen at a worse time as its an election year so it is politsized out of control and rumors fly so fast it surpasses the speed of sound.  People believe it and many get upset.

Plus people still can get it with masks on.  If you fail to wash your masks and touch your face to fix the falling masks and that is if youhave the money to afford these masks as they are $35 for a box of 50.   Plus gloves are only good if you switch them out regurlally as the germs stay on them once you touch a foreign object.  Then many itch their eyes with the gloves too which is the same as using your bare hands.

[kphoger]

I have both the freedom to go to Home Depot, Target, the bank (currently closed for construction), and the grocery store and the freedom to not wear a mask.  There is no either-or situation going on.

There is an either-or situation going on here, because 99% of indoor public places that have reopened have done so with a mandate requiring a face covering while inside.

Did I at some point say I don't wear a mask because I consider it an inconvenience?  I don't remember saying that.  What I have said is that I think the benefits of wearing one are overstated.  I rarely find myself in any situation in which I consider the risk I might pose to be in any way significant.
...
As I've said, most people around here don't believe wearing a mask everywhere is "what's right for society", and neither do I.  I guess things are different wear you live.

Pun aside, intentional or otherwise, yes, I think things are different where I live, not least because there have been 31,000 deaths attributed to COVID-19 in New York state. That was part of the reason I included those last two sentences:

I get the feeling that we may just have to wait until there's a bad outbreak in every corner of the country before this starts to sink in.
Not to sound self-righteous here, but I'm quite proud of upstate New York for being one of the only areas of the country to adopt mask-wearing as the norm before getting hit badly by the pandemic.

It was unintentional. 

If you admit that the pandemic is not equal from one part of the country to another, then why do you insist that people's actions be the same in all parts of the country?  To illustrate what I mean, take a look at the map below.



In those 22 counties outlined, there have only been a combined 69 cases TOTAL.  One-third of those counties haven't recorded a single case of COVID.  Why would you demand that those residents' actions be the same as, say, Sullivan County (NY), which has two-thirds the population but 21 times the COVID cases?  That makes no sense to me.

[hotdogPi]

Pandemics can clearly spread in places like the NW corner – it already happened in the SW corner (plus nearby parts of OK and TX).

If the SW corner had been taking better precautions (although we knew less about the virus when it happened, so it's unlikely), the outbreak wouldn't have been as bad.

[kalvado]

I have both the freedom to go to Home Depot, Target, the bank (currently closed for construction), and the grocery store and the freedom to not wear a mask.  There is no either-or situation going on.

There is an either-or situation going on here, because 99% of indoor public places that have reopened have done so with a mandate requiring a face covering while inside.

Did I at some point say I don't wear a mask because I consider it an inconvenience?  I don't remember saying that.  What I have said is that I think the benefits of wearing one are overstated.  I rarely find myself in any situation in which I consider the risk I might pose to be in any way significant.
...
As I've said, most people around here don't believe wearing a mask everywhere is "what's right for society", and neither do I.  I guess things are different wear you live.

Pun aside, intentional or otherwise, yes, I think things are different where I live, not least because there have been 31,000 deaths attributed to COVID-19 in New York state. That was part of the reason I included those last two sentences:

I get the feeling that we may just have to wait until there's a bad outbreak in every corner of the country before this starts to sink in.
Not to sound self-righteous here, but I'm quite proud of upstate New York for being one of the only areas of the country to adopt mask-wearing as the norm before getting hit badly by the pandemic.

It was unintentional. 

If you admit that the pandemic is not equal from one part of the country to another, then why do you insist that people's actions be the same in all parts of the country?  To illustrate what I mean, take a look at the map below.

In those 22 counties outlined, there have only been a combined 69 cases TOTAL.  One-third of those counties haven't recorded a single case of COVID.  Why would you demand that those residents' actions be the same as, say, Sullivan County (NY), which has two-thirds the population but 21 times the COVID cases?  That makes no sense to me.

I would say a pretty valid argument. However, experience show that one infected person can pass virus to 1000 others - that actually happened in Korea. This can mean that great statistics can be ruined pretty fast.
Bigger US cities already learned the lesson on being arrogant - remember "it can only happen in dirty China, not in US"?  Guess what would come next...

[kphoger]

Pandemics can clearly spread in places like the NW corner – it already happened in the SW corner (plus nearby parts of OK and TX).

If the SW corner had been taking better precautions (although we knew less about the virus when it happened, so it's unlikely), the outbreak wouldn't have been as bad.

The vast majority of those SW corner cases were packing plants.  Doesn't really apply to someone like me walking into a grocery store.

[J N Winkler]

In those 22 counties outlined, there have only been a combined 69 cases TOTAL.  One-third of those counties haven't recorded a single case of COVID.  Why would you demand that those residents' actions be the same as, say, Sullivan County (NY), which has two-thirds the population but 21 times the COVID cases?  That makes no sense to me.

The situation in northwestern Kansas is nowhere near a crisis--we are still having a mask debate here in Sedgwick County as hospitalizations have doubled in the past week and keep on climbing.

[corco]

Pandemics can clearly spread in places like the NW corner – it already happened in the SW corner (plus nearby parts of OK and TX).

If the SW corner had been taking better precautions (although we knew less about the virus when it happened, so it's unlikely), the outbreak wouldn't have been as bad.

The vast majority of those SW corner cases were packing plants.  Doesn't really apply to someone like me walking into a grocery store.

How did the first case get into the meat packing plant in the first place?

[kphoger]

Pandemics can clearly spread in places like the NW corner – it already happened in the SW corner (plus nearby parts of OK and TX).

If the SW corner had been taking better precautions (although we knew less about the virus when it happened, so it's unlikely), the outbreak wouldn't have been as bad.

The vast majority of those SW corner cases were packing plants.  Doesn't really apply to someone like me walking into a grocery store.

How did the first case get into the meat packing plant in the first place?

I don't recall if that was ever determined.

So, I take it your opinion is that people who live in a county with zero reported cases (such as the county I grew up in) should have the same mentality as those in a county with thousands?

[corco]

Pandemics can clearly spread in places like the NW corner — it already happened in the SW corner (plus nearby parts of OK and TX).

If the SW corner had been taking better precautions (although we knew less about the virus when it happened, so it's unlikely), the outbreak wouldn't have been as bad.

The vast majority of those SW corner cases were packing plants.  Doesn't really apply to someone like me walking into a grocery store.

How did the first case get into the meat packing plant in the first place?

I don't recall if that was ever determined.

So, I take it your opinion is that people who live in a county with zero reported cases (such as the county I grew up in) should have the same mentality as those in a county with thousands?

My thinking is twofold:

1) We're already seeing how this thing moves around and migrates from community to community. We don't know when it will hit NW Kansas, but it's nearly certain that it will. Best to be prepared and on the defensive.

2) We can say "oh it's just a meat packing plant, that doesn't affect everybody," but people at meat packing plants come from and go back home to the broader community. Whoever brought it into the packing plant got it from somewhere, and now a whole bunch of people are sick because somebody (probably) didn't take necessary precautions.

[hotdogPi]

2) We can say "oh it's just a meat packing plant, that doesn't affect everybody," but people at meat packing plants come from and go back home to the broader community. Whoever brought it into the packing plant got it from somewhere, and now a whole bunch of people are sick because somebody (probably) didn't take necessary precautions.

I've actually noticed that many of these single-county spikes across the country (not just factories, but also jails) don't affect the adjacent counties.

[kphoger]

SO you're backing up from "we don't need no government" to ...

When did I say that?

I absolutely believe we need a government.  And the government should pass laws prohibiting people from actively harming others, as well as punish people who do so.

But this isn't that.

Well, so the only difference between us is that you have your own opinion about good and bad things  - you don't deny government right to mandate things?
Think about it in terms of flood, levee, and some idiot who thinks having some water flowing by his home would make a great sight. 
Once we're on the same page, the only question is how much enforcement can be put into the regulation...

Nope.  You think the two things are equivalent, and I don't.

So, I take it your opinion is that people who live in a county with zero reported cases (such as the county I grew up in) should have the same mentality as those in a county with thousands?

My thinking is twofold:

1) We're already seeing how this thing moves around and migrates from community to community. We don't know when it will hit NW Kansas, but it's nearly certain that it will. Best to be prepared and on the defensive.

2) We can say "oh it's just a meat packing plant, that doesn't affect everybody," but people at meat packing plants come from and go back home to the broader community. Whoever brought it into the packing plant got it from somewhere, and now a whole bunch of people are sick because somebody (probably) didn't take necessary precautions.

So, the answer is yes.

2) We can say "oh it's just a meat packing plant, that doesn't affect everybody," but people at meat packing plants come from and go back home to the broader community. Whoever brought it into the packing plant got it from somewhere, and now a whole bunch of people are sick because somebody (probably) didn't take necessary precautions.

I've actually noticed that many of these single-county spikes across the country (not just factories, but also jails) don't affect the adjacent counties.

Very true.  Finney County (home to meat packing plants in Garden City) has had 1523 cases, but the eight bordering counties have barely topped 150 combined, and Lane County has had only 3 cases.  Similarly, Ford County (home to meat packing plants in Dodge City) has had 1926 cases, but the six bordering counties have barely topped 100 combined, and Kiowa County has had only 3 cases.

[kalvado]

Pandemics can clearly spread in places like the NW corner – it already happened in the SW corner (plus nearby parts of OK and TX).

If the SW corner had been taking better precautions (although we knew less about the virus when it happened, so it's unlikely), the outbreak wouldn't have been as bad.

The vast majority of those SW corner cases were packing plants.  Doesn't really apply to someone like me walking into a grocery store.

How did the first case get into the meat packing plant in the first place?

I don't recall if that was ever determined.

So, I take it your opinion is that people who live in a county with zero reported cases (such as the county I grew up in) should have the same mentality as those in a county with thousands?

Not that they have to - but they may regret that later.
On the other hand, its pretty likely that we'll end up in a situation when everyone would get sick sooner or later.  So it doesn't matter that much overall, and any suppression of infection rates is temporary only. 
Catch-22 at its best.

[webny99]

(Dang, knew I'd lose my short window to reply without quoting...)

I've actually noticed that many of these single-county spikes across the country (not just factories, but also jails) don't affect the adjacent counties.

Very true.  Finney County (home to meat packing plants in Garden City) has had 1523 cases, but the eight bordering counties have barely topped 150 combined, and Lane County has had only 3 cases.  Similarly, Ford County (home to meat packing plants in Dodge City) has had 1926 cases, but the six bordering counties have barely topped 100 combined, and Kiowa County has had only 3 cases.

Probably because things are very county-centric in the rural Midwest, with spread emanating from the county seat and not necessarily a whole lot of travel between counties.

[kphoger]

(Dang, knew I'd lose my short window to reply without quoting...)

I've actually noticed that many of these single-county spikes across the country (not just factories, but also jails) don't affect the adjacent counties.

Very true.  Finney County (home to meat packing plants in Garden City) has had 1523 cases, but the eight bordering counties have barely topped 150 combined, and Lane County has had only 3 cases.  Similarly, Ford County (home to meat packing plants in Dodge City) has had 1926 cases, but the six bordering counties have barely topped 100 combined, and Kiowa County has had only 3 cases.

Probably because things are very county-centric in the rural Midwest, with spread emanating from the county seat and not necessarily a whole lot of travel between counties.

I haven't been following county-specific data outside of Kansas.

1, have you noticed a difference between Midwestern states and states in other regions in that regard?

[hotdogPi]

(Dang, knew I'd lose my short window to reply without quoting...)

I've actually noticed that many of these single-county spikes across the country (not just factories, but also jails) don't affect the adjacent counties.

Very true.  Finney County (home to meat packing plants in Garden City) has had 1523 cases, but the eight bordering counties have barely topped 150 combined, and Lane County has had only 3 cases.  Similarly, Ford County (home to meat packing plants in Dodge City) has had 1926 cases, but the six bordering counties have barely topped 100 combined, and Kiowa County has had only 3 cases.

Probably because things are very county-centric in the rural Midwest, with spread emanating from the county seat and not necessarily a whole lot of travel between counties.

I haven't been following county-specific data outside of Kansas.

1, have you noticed a difference between Midwestern states and states in other regions in that regard?

It appears that only the Midwest, extended to AR and TN, has single-county spikes, although the NE/IA border area does spread to nearby counties. In the Northeast and the rest of the South, cases are high or low as a region, with similar numbers in adjacent counties, but you also don't have the "1 in 18 infected" like you see in Ford County, KS. The West doesn't have any extremely high numbers per capita except for some counties on the NM/AZ border that are highly Native American, and that particular area has similar numbers throughout.

Remember the Georgia funeral about two months back? That one definitely spread to adjacent counties.

[kphoger]

We are nowhere near herd immunity.

Does anyone know where those numbers came from?  There have been about 2.4 million confirmed cases in the USA, and the CDC estimates that 35% of cases are asymptomatic.  With a national population of 328 million, how does that math work out to ~6% of the population having been infected?  Is it because there has been a huge number of symptomatic cases that were never confirmed?

[tradephoric]

Since early May there has been about an 8 fold increase in daily cases in Arizona and the percentage of positive tests have tripled.  Yet the 7-day average of daily deaths in Arizona is lower today than it was in early May.  According to the data there has been a month long outbreak in Arizona yet we aren't seeing a new high in deaths.  Similar trends are starting to be seen in Florida, Texas and California.  Some theories to why we aren't seeing increases in deaths:

1.  A disproportionate number of young and healthy people are catching the virus now compared to early in the pandemic (not totally buying this argument).
2.  The virus has mutated and has become less deadly.
3.  The people who are getting infected may be experiencing less viral load due to preventative measures instituted by our government (social distancing/face masks).
4.  Treatments are getting better and hospital care is improving.
5.  The data is just all F@#$@ up and nothing can be trusted.

[hotdogPi]

6. Deaths lag cases. You're going to see a spike in cases first, then a spike in deaths later.

[tradephoric]

6. Deaths lag cases. You're going to see a spike in cases first, then a spike in deaths later.

I agree that deaths lag cases but the spike in Arizona cases and the rise in percentage positive test began nearly a month ago.  We should already be seeing a spike in deaths in Arizona but we aren't.  If you look at New York early in this pandemic, peak death occurred only about 1 week after peak cases.

[vdeane]

2) We can say "oh it's just a meat packing plant, that doesn't affect everybody," but people at meat packing plants come from and go back home to the broader community. Whoever brought it into the packing plant got it from somewhere, and now a whole bunch of people are sick because somebody (probably) didn't take necessary precautions.

It's amazing how many people don't get this - they just act as if the virus appears out of thin air in the plant.  How hard is it to understand that precautions you take are not only for yourself, but everyone else, even people you've never met, by reducing the chance you'll be a link in the transmission chain?

[kphoger]

2) We can say "oh it's just a meat packing plant, that doesn't affect everybody," but people at meat packing plants come from and go back home to the broader community. Whoever brought it into the packing plant got it from somewhere, and now a whole bunch of people are sick because somebody (probably) didn't take necessary precautions.

It's amazing how many people don't get this - they just act as if the virus appears out of thin air in the plant.  How hard is it to understand that precautions you take are not only for yourself, but everyone else, even people you've never met, by reducing the chance you'll be a link in the transmission chain?

Assuming that the virus didn't appear out of thin air at the Tyson plant, we can assume it came in from outside the plant.  And, assuming that the virus doesn't appear out of thin air in a town, we can assume it comes in from outside of town as well.  This is what I was actually getting at.  In the county I grew up in, for example, there have been zero cases of COVID.  So it makes no sense for a local, who interacts with basically nobody from outside of town, to wear a mask when running errands around town.  The chances that she is infected are basically nil.

[kalvado]

We are nowhere near herd immunity.

Does anyone know where those numbers came from?  There have been about 2.4 million confirmed cases in the USA, and the CDC estimates that 35% of cases are asymptomatic.  With a national population of 328 million, how does that math work out to ~6% of the population having been infected?  Is it because there has been a huge number of symptomatic cases that were never confirmed?

Antibody tests, I assume. Which means a lot more than 35% are asyptomatic and it is really more like a very bad flu than a black plague.
THink backward - US passed 100K deaths a while ago, and now official mortality estimate is 0.3%, higher in early days of it when ventilator use was not worked out.  That means 30 million total infected - 10% - which sort of matches the graph. 
Bad news is that we have a lot more to come.

[kphoger]

Bad news is that we have a lot more to come.

I had intended to, but forgot to, preface my question by reiterating my skepticism about the herd immunity argument to begin with.  Until we know how long our immune systems hang on to SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, I don't frankly care how close we are to reaching "herd immunity".

[kalvado]

Bad news is that we have a lot more to come.

I had intended to, but forgot to, preface my question by reiterating my skepticism about the herd immunity argument to begin with.  Until we know how long our immune systems hang on to SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, I don't frankly care how close we are to reaching "herd immunity".

Did you read the guardian link I posted yesterday? I fully believe the ultimate outcome would  be the same:  https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/31/did-a-coronavirus-cause-the-pandemic-that-killed-queen-victorias-heir
So "flattening the curve" still stands, but the only difference it makes is WHEN you and me (literal use this time) would be infected, not IF we would get away with no infection

[jakeroot]

2) We can say "oh it's just a meat packing plant, that doesn't affect everybody," but people at meat packing plants come from and go back home to the broader community. Whoever brought it into the packing plant got it from somewhere, and now a whole bunch of people are sick because somebody (probably) didn't take necessary precautions.

It's amazing how many people don't get this - they just act as if the virus appears out of thin air in the plant.  How hard is it to understand that precautions you take are not only for yourself, but everyone else, even people you've never met, by reducing the chance you'll be a link in the transmission chain?

Assuming that the virus didn't appear out of thin air at the Tyson plant, we can assume it came in from outside the plant.  And, assuming that the virus doesn't appear out of thin air in a town, we can assume it comes in from outside of town as well.  This is what I was actually getting at.  In the county I grew up in, for example, there have been zero cases of COVID.  So it makes no sense for a local, who interacts with basically nobody from outside of town, to wear a mask when running errands around town.  The chances that she is infected are basically nil.

Unless your birth county is living under a dome, there's no way to guarantee that interaction isn't occurring with an infected person. "Basically nil" is still "more than none".

And before you say "well of course", I would then ask why the county wouldn't take precautions when inter-county interaction is still physically possible? There's no way to guarantee virus containment without a physical containment of the people. Doing absolutely nothing, because there's basically no outside interaction, is simply asking for trouble. Can a mask prevent spread? No, but can it help? Yes, so why doesn't the county do what it can to keep it out? They're ahead of the game, and they need to stay ahead as long as US cases keep growing.