Coronavirus pandemic

[Brandon]

CDC Antibody Studies Confirm Huge Gap Between COVID-19 Infections and Known Cases

Some food for thought.

The CDC analyzed blood samples drawn for routine tests unrelated to COVID-19 from patients in New York City, Connecticut, South Florida, Missouri, Utah, and western Washington state. Although these samples may not be representative of the general population, they provide a clearer picture of virus prevalence than screening limited to people who sought virus tests because they had symptoms consistent with COVID-19 or because they were in close contact with known carriers.

[SEWIGuy]

This was just explained to you. Testing is not prioritized for the sick. This high a percentage rate based on "anyone can get a test"  is a sign of very large community spread. If that many people are carrying around and no realizing it, they can pass it to those more vulnerable. Which means hospitalizations and deaths could significantly rise in the coming weeks.

So yes the cases going up with this amount of testing is alarming and a bad sign.

What can i say of course it isn't great that there is a significant rise in cases in some states.  But did you really think Florida, Texas, and Arizona - who were largely spared from the virus in March/April - would just magically avoid it when they started to reopen?  No doubt more people are catching the virus in certain states (evidenced by the rising percentage positive tests) but it's nowhere near as bad as what New York was facing in April (which has been my main point over the past few posts.. just because we are seeing record high cases doesn't mean things are that bad).  At its worse there were 1,000 deaths a day in NY.  California being double the population of NY could potentially see 2,000 deaths per day if they get hit similarly hard.  Today California is averaging 59 deaths a day due to COVID which is 28% fewer deaths than its peak average of 82 deaths on April 23rd.   So even with a tripling in daily cases in California since April 23rd, there has been a 28% reduction in deaths.  Increased cases doesn't necessarily equate to increased deaths... California being a good example of this.  Just pump the brakes a little.

Increased cases, while not necessarily increasing the the death rate, will undoubtedly lead to more deaths.  The problem was the opening up without reasonable restrictions AND the last of a robust contact tracing program.  Other countries have showed what can be done with both of those.  We failed because we didn't have the patience to be reasonable with our reopening and our leadership had no desire to significantly invest in contact tracing.

[SEWIGuy]

https://covidtracking.com/blog/why-changing-covid-19-demographics-in-the-us-make-death-trends-harder-to

What we know: the death lag

According to the CDC, the average period from symptom onset to death is about two weeks. The average lag between death and the reporting of a death is just over seven days.

New daily positive cases only began to exceed the plateau of the previous two weeks around June 18-19, which means that an increase in deaths as a result of the rise in new cases would not be expected to show up until July.

This may be one reason why the US deaths trend currently differs from Brazil and India. In those, cases have risen consistently; the current surge in the US comes after a decline and a plateau.

[SEWIGuy]

Don't go to bars.  Don't go to restaurants where spacing isn't a thing.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/26/this-chart-shows-the-link-between-restaurant-spending-and-new-coronavirus-cases.html?__source=sharebar%7Ctwitter&par=sharebar

"Higher restaurant spending appears to be linked to a faster spread of the coronavirus, according to a JPMorgan study.

Analyst Jesse Edgerton analyzed data from 30 million Chase credit and debit cardholders and from Johns Hopkins University's case tracker. He found that increased restaurant spending in a state predicted a rise in new infections there three weeks later.

He also said restaurant spending was the strongest predictor across all categories of card spending."

[tradephoric]

https://covidtracking.com/blog/why-changing-covid-19-demographics-in-the-us-make-death-trends-harder-to

What we know: the death lag

According to the CDC, the average period from symptom onset to death is about two weeks. The average lag between death and the reporting of a death is just over seven days.

New daily positive cases only began to exceed the plateau of the previous two weeks around June 18-19, which means that an increase in deaths as a result of the rise in new cases would not be expected to show up until July.

Good link.  Nationally it appears cases have been solidly rising for the past two weeks yet average deaths continues to decline.  This is not what we saw in New York  back in April where the peak in deaths only lagged the peak in new cases by 3 days.  How long before we actually see deaths start to rise?  I'm not complaining but i'd argue that enough time has elapsed where it should have already happened (especially in somes states where case positivity rates have been rising for over a month).
 

[SEWIGuy]

I think its pretty hard to have an apples-to-apples comparison between what was happening as this was emerging and what is happening now.  The testing environment is different.  How doctors manage cases is different.  How data is reporting may be different.

I mean, we will know by about mid to late July right?

[Max Rockatansky]

Lengthy video on the process of production of vaccines, lots of COVID stuff tossed in because it was topical:

[kalvado]

Don't go to bars.  Don't go to restaurants where spacing isn't a thing.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/26/this-chart-shows-the-link-between-restaurant-spending-and-new-coronavirus-cases.html?__source=sharebar%7Ctwitter&par=sharebar

"Higher restaurant spending appears to be linked to a faster spread of the coronavirus, according to a JPMorgan study.

Analyst Jesse Edgerton analyzed data from 30 million Chase credit and debit cardholders and from Johns Hopkins University's case tracker. He found that increased restaurant spending in a state predicted a rise in new infections there three weeks later.

He also said restaurant spending was the strongest predictor across all categories of card spending."

A bit of nitpicking -  it would be great if they could differentiate between take-out and dine-in. Apparently, credit card charge doesn't differentiate. Maybe some analysis of tips may help.

[SEWIGuy]

Don't go to bars.  Don't go to restaurants where spacing isn't a thing.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/26/this-chart-shows-the-link-between-restaurant-spending-and-new-coronavirus-cases.html?__source=sharebar%7Ctwitter&par=sharebar

"Higher restaurant spending appears to be linked to a faster spread of the coronavirus, according to a JPMorgan study.

Analyst Jesse Edgerton analyzed data from 30 million Chase credit and debit cardholders and from Johns Hopkins University's case tracker. He found that increased restaurant spending in a state predicted a rise in new infections there three weeks later.

He also said restaurant spending was the strongest predictor across all categories of card spending."

A bit of nitpicking -  it would be great if they could differentiate between take-out and dine-in. Apparently, credit card charge doesn't differentiate. Maybe some analysis of tips may help.

Not sure why that matters.  The correlation is there regardless. 

[kalvado]

Don't go to bars.  Don't go to restaurants where spacing isn't a thing.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/26/this-chart-shows-the-link-between-restaurant-spending-and-new-coronavirus-cases.html?__source=sharebar%7Ctwitter&par=sharebar

"Higher restaurant spending appears to be linked to a faster spread of the coronavirus, according to a JPMorgan study.

Analyst Jesse Edgerton analyzed data from 30 million Chase credit and debit cardholders and from Johns Hopkins University's case tracker. He found that increased restaurant spending in a state predicted a rise in new infections there three weeks later.

He also said restaurant spending was the strongest predictor across all categories of card spending."

A bit of nitpicking -  it would be great if they could differentiate between take-out and dine-in. Apparently, credit card charge doesn't differentiate. Maybe some analysis of tips may help.

Not sure why that matters.  The correlation is there regardless.

It matters because brief mask-on visit for pickup is probably much less hazardous than long mask-off dine-in. Hot food is likely safe enough anyway.   

[SEWIGuy]

Don't go to bars.  Don't go to restaurants where spacing isn't a thing.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/26/this-chart-shows-the-link-between-restaurant-spending-and-new-coronavirus-cases.html?__source=sharebar%7Ctwitter&par=sharebar

"Higher restaurant spending appears to be linked to a faster spread of the coronavirus, according to a JPMorgan study.

Analyst Jesse Edgerton analyzed data from 30 million Chase credit and debit cardholders and from Johns Hopkins University's case tracker. He found that increased restaurant spending in a state predicted a rise in new infections there three weeks later.

He also said restaurant spending was the strongest predictor across all categories of card spending."

A bit of nitpicking -  it would be great if they could differentiate between take-out and dine-in. Apparently, credit card charge doesn't differentiate. Maybe some analysis of tips may help.

Not sure why that matters.  The correlation is there regardless.

It matters because brief mask-on visit for pickup is probably much less hazardous than long mask-off dine-in. Hot food is likely safe enough anyway.   

Right but the point is that increased visits to restaurants is followed by increased positive tests.  It doesn't really matter if its for sit down or take out, but I think everybody realizes its due to sit down.

[kalvado]

Don't go to bars.  Don't go to restaurants where spacing isn't a thing.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/26/this-chart-shows-the-link-between-restaurant-spending-and-new-coronavirus-cases.html?__source=sharebar%7Ctwitter&par=sharebar

"Higher restaurant spending appears to be linked to a faster spread of the coronavirus, according to a JPMorgan study.

Analyst Jesse Edgerton analyzed data from 30 million Chase credit and debit cardholders and from Johns Hopkins University's case tracker. He found that increased restaurant spending in a state predicted a rise in new infections there three weeks later.

He also said restaurant spending was the strongest predictor across all categories of card spending."

A bit of nitpicking -  it would be great if they could differentiate between take-out and dine-in. Apparently, credit card charge doesn't differentiate. Maybe some analysis of tips may help.

Not sure why that matters.  The correlation is there regardless.

It matters because brief mask-on visit for pickup is probably much less hazardous than long mask-off dine-in. Hot food is likely safe enough anyway.   

Right but the point is that increased visits to restaurants is followed by increased positive tests.  It doesn't really matter if its for sit down or take out, but I think everybody realizes its due to sit down.

That's why I think it would be grat to have separate take-out and eat-in data. But sometimes you can only have the data you can have, and not the data you want... 

[tradephoric]

Arizona has a slightly higher population than Massachusetts yet Massachusetts has seen 10x the number of COVID deaths.  Will Arizona be spared from this pandemic or is their spike in cases still coming?   


https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?scale=linear&data=deaths&region=US&location=Arizona&location=Massachusetts&doublingtime=3

Revisiting this post from early May.   Arizona has most definitely seen a spike in cases yet their deaths have not risen significantly.  Arizona has a long way to go before they reach the high of 1,223 weekly reported deaths Massachusetts faced back in April.  Right now Arizona is reporting 244 weekly reported deaths.  For the last month Arizona has basically been experiencing an exponential rise in daily cases with roughly a 3-day doubling time.  During this exponential growth of cases, why hasn't there been a rise in deaths similar to what Massachusetts saw when they underwent their exponential growth in cases?  Here is a graph of the reported cases and deaths from each state:

[kphoger]

I went to Lowe's the other day, and I was the only non-employee in the building wearing a mask.

Hey now, a typical Lowe's is larger than some New England states!   

[webny99]

I went to Lowe's the other day, and I was the only non-employee in the building wearing a mask.

Hey now, a typical Lowe's is larger than some New England states!   

Mid-Atlantic states, too: I think I could clinch Delaware's counties faster than Lowe's aisles.

[Eth]

I went to Lowe's the other day, and I was the only non-employee in the building wearing a mask.

Hey now, a typical Lowe's is larger than some New England states!   

Mid-Atlantic states, too: I think I could clinch Delaware's counties faster than Lowe's aisles.

You can pass through all three counties in about 30 minutes, so you'd have a good shot.

[J N Winkler]

In Kansas, a statewide mask order is set to take effect at midnight Friday morning.  It apparently will require the wearing of masks in public areas both indoors and outdoors, but draft language is not yet available, and a number of county commissions (including in Sedgwick County) are exploring whether they have the ability to opt out under an amendment to the state emergency management law that was enacted last month as the result of a compromise between the governor and the legislature.

[wxfree]

In Kansas, a statewide mask order is set to take effect at midnight Friday morning.  It apparently will require the wearing of masks in public areas both indoors and outdoors, but draft language is not yet available, and a number of county commissions (including in Sedgwick County) are exploring whether they have the ability to opt out under an amendment to the state emergency management law that was enacted last month as the result of a compromise between the governor and the legislature.

That's ridiculous.  We should wear masks indoors in public places or where people are crowded together, but not when alone outside.  Instead of responding to the best scientific evidence, people are reacting to the stupidest elements of some "other side."  I remember a time when we worked together to accomplish the goal we all had.  I remember what the world was like before it was full of ignorant experts.  We humans are doing a better job of destroying what it means to have enlightened and elevated life on this planet than some defective package of XNA that isn't really alive could ever accomplish

[Max Rockatansky]

In Kansas, a statewide mask order is set to take effect at midnight Friday morning.  It apparently will require the wearing of masks in public areas both indoors and outdoors, but draft language is not yet available, and a number of county commissions (including in Sedgwick County) are exploring whether they have the ability to opt out under an amendment to the state emergency management law that was enacted last month as the result of a compromise between the governor and the legislature.

That's ridiculous.  We should wear masks indoors in public places or where people are crowded together, but not when alone outside.  Instead of responding to the best scientific evidence, people are reacting to the stupidest elements of some "other side."  I remember a time when we worked together to accomplish the goal we all had.  I remember what the world was like before it was full of ignorant experts.  We humans are doing a better job of destroying what it means to have enlightened and elevated life on this planet than some defective package of XNA that isn't really alive could ever accomplish

California has an all the time outdoor rule as well (although exercise and hiking are excluded).  Essentially said provision isn't something that can be enforced. 

[bandit957]

California has an all the time outdoor rule as well (although exercise and hiking are excluded).  Essentially said provision isn't something that can be enforced.

I'm on the "LockdownSkepticism" sub on Reddit, and people in California say it's never enforced outdoors (although a few people apparently do wear masks outdoors).

[Max Rockatansky]

California has an all the time outdoor rule as well (although exercise and hiking are excluded).  Essentially said provision isn't something that can be enforced.

I'm on the "LockdownSkepticism" sub on Reddit, and people in California say it's never enforced outdoors (although a few people apparently do wear masks outdoors).

How can it be enforced even if that was a priority?  No police department has that kind of man power to stop people on side walks and parking lots for not wearing a mask.  The order should have been limited to indoor settings or places where a 6 foot clearance couldn't be maintained.

[webny99]

Here's an interesting 20-minute listen regarding mask wearing that hits on a lot of the aspects that have been discussed in this thread.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-we-now-know-about-face-masks/

(Reply 4500! )

[Bruce]

California has an all the time outdoor rule as well (although exercise and hiking are excluded).  Essentially said provision isn't something that can be enforced.

I'm on the "LockdownSkepticism" sub on Reddit, and people in California say it's never enforced outdoors (although a few people apparently do wear masks outdoors).

That sub seems to not consider scientific data or reliable sources at all. Probably should be banned like the other problematic fake news subs.

[bandit957]

That sub seems to not consider scientific data or reliable sources at all. Probably should be banned like the other problematic fake news subs.

So the American Academy of Pediatrics and the BBC aren't reliable sources?

[J N Winkler]

That's ridiculous.  We should wear masks indoors in public places or where people are crowded together, but not when alone outside.

California has an all the time outdoor rule as well (although exercise and hiking are excluded).  Essentially said provision isn't something that can be enforced.

One of the TV stations local to me has a story saying that the requirement to wear a mask outdoors will apply only in public settings where six-foot social distancing cannot be maintained.  But I don't know that this is based on actual sight of any draft verbiage.

I think the majority of the motivation is to get mask wearing in public indoor spaces to 100% or close to it.  If that happens, it may be enough to tamp down the current surge in cases, since large gatherings are basically no longer happening outdoors--Fourth of July fireworks and large events like Taco Fest have been cancelled, and we are in the dog days of summer.  I'm skeptical there is any real interest in attempting to enforce a mask order outdoors, with or without a carve-out for open spaces.