Coronavirus pandemic

[kphoger]

Really I see no reason to think that unless we start chaning our behavior soon, that this fall is going to be a disaster.

Did you type that right?

I kind of expect the real-world risk to be worse in the fall than it was in the spring, yet I expect restrictions to be lighter.  Which is, of course, a feedback loop.

[SEWIGuy]

Really I see no reason to think that unless we start chaning our behavior soon, that this fall is going to be a disaster.

Did you type that right?

I kind of expect the real-world risk to be worse in the fall than it was in the spring, yet I expect restrictions to be lighter.  Which is, of course, a feedback loop.

Edited.

Yeah exactly.  We may have overreacted in the Spring, but the thought is we would have done something with that downtime.  And yeah we have done a lot to create emergency room space, manage the disease better, manufacture PPE, but it seems like we are about to backslide in a way that is not going to be manageable.

[kphoger]

it seems like we are about to backslide in a way that is not going to be manageable.

Some places have demonstrated that, even after the virus's butt is kicked in an area, a resurgence is still possible (AK, HI, MT).  But, having said that, other places have not shown any up-slope yet, such as the region below.



Meanwhile, other states (including my own) were showing a clear and sustained down-slope, then have been bouncing back up again sharply.  And plenty of states are similar to that, just with less-obvious down-slopes preceding the resurgence.

So I'm not sure that, even if things turn worse, they will do so everywhere.

[webny99]

If cases continue to rise, while number of deaths and the death rate continue to decline, does that mean real-world risk has increased?

[kphoger]

If cases continue to rise, while number of deaths and the death rate continue to decline, does that mean real-world risk has increased?

A few possibilities:

Deaths start rising again – yes
Cases are due only to increased testing – no
Virus becomes less lethal – hmmmm, maybe?

[kalvado]

If cases continue to rise, while number of deaths and the death rate continue to decline, does that mean real-world risk has increased?

Looks like quite a few people left with problems after virus "recovery"
Look for #covid1in20

[Roadgeekteen]

New York just added Delaware to the advisory... something tells me that their high cases is because of the people not letting them in.

[webny99]

... traveling is about 50% less fun right now.

I'm not sure I agree. Traffic is lighter than usual for the most part, mask wearing has become habit at this point, and I was one for social distancing even before the pandemic hit.

[J N Winkler]

If cases continue to rise, while number of deaths and the death rate continue to decline, does that mean real-world risk has increased?

A few possibilities:

Deaths start rising again – yes
Cases are due only to increased testing – no
Virus becomes less lethal – hmmmm, maybe?

Because the current crop of cases skews much younger, I think the lag time before hospitalizations and deaths start going up is likely to be longer.

There seems to be a hopeful expectation that since testing has ramped up and testing criteria have been loosened in many jurisdictions, the current case numbers reflect greater sampling of mild cases.  That may be true if the comparison is to mid-March when criteria were more stringent, but not if it is to mid-May when states started reopening, since positive test percentages have been increasing.

I think what might save states like Texas and Florida, and maybe even Arizona, is the fact that covid-19 is to an extent a known quantity in a way it was not in New York back in March, and people have been modifying their behavior accordingly.  Also, the fact most new cases are in young people should buy a bit more time for mask mandates and other nonpharmaceutical interventions (short of full lockdown) to choke off exponential growth.

[stormwatch7721]

Really I see no reason not to think that unless we start chaning our behavior soon, that this fall is going to be a disaster.  People in the north are going to start heading back indoors, and there will be numerous outbreaks tied to schools and colleges.

This is why I'm concerned about the 2nd wave.

[formulanone]

... traveling is about 50% less fun right now.

I'm not sure I agree. Traffic is lighter than usual for the most part, mask wearing has become habit at this point, and I was one for social distancing even before the pandemic hit.

YMMV: though I can't say I see a huge difference on the roads. On one hand, I was able to breeze through rush hours in Chattanooga and Huntsville, but those are also places where a single disruption can turn their major corridors to a crawl. We usually go to the Gulf Shores during Memorial Day but I was able to swap out to a few days before July 4th; traffic is always terrible in the former, but was easy-peasy for a quick jump to the beach this time.

We went to beaches in the morning and evening, when it's quiet and less chance of a sunburn in 90 minutes. No difficulty keeping 20 feet apart, though we seemed to be one of three families wearing masks throughout the hotel (outside of the rooms). We stayed out of the pools and did take out. Washed up frequently and I think we did the right thing. They haven't come in contact with anyone but two visits from relatives over a month apart. I'm the dangerous one, so to speak...though I've requested projects with few personnel to train (1-5 people) and being reclusive throughout.

Though air travel has less crowds, the flight choices are lean, and the amenities become very spartan (which is what happens when you get spoiled...play me a very tiny fiddle). The warning from some airlines is that they might try to increase load capacity to 90-100% again...not looking forward to that.

[kphoger]

City traffic was only noticeably light for a few weeks here.  I've noticed rush hour being a little lighter.  I haven't been on a road trip since March, though, and I haven't inquired about road conditions of those I know who have traveled out of state recently.

[hbelkins]

I haven't really been anywhere since a doctor's appointment in Lexington back in the spring, and a Saturday trip to London to check out some construction and a new J-turn on KY 80, so I haven't noticed any upticks in traffic. But gas prices are up. Increased demand and the switch to summer blend probably plays a part, but I'd imagine the biggest reason is the end of the Saudi-Russian price war.

I'm supposed to go back to the doctor in Lexington on Friday, but I'm giving serious thought to canceling that appointment.

[roadman65]

Not surprising this:
https://www.newsbreakapp.com/n/0PXKvGOe?s=a99&pd=03tKkkTW

[oscar]

traveling is about 50% less fun right now.

Agreed. My current trip is heavily focused on route-clinching, with the incidental benefit of improving my "round 2" county count (counties revisited in the U.S. after I completed them all in summer 2010). About zero socializing. No visits to relatives (especially my 90-something aunt who is just a few counties away from my current location), too dangerous to their health.. No trips to the beach. No hot springs. No fun, aside from driving.

One reason for doing this all now is the hope that more sports will come back to life later in the year, giving me more to do at home. That's turning into a "maybe" at best.

[TheHighwayMan3561]

What was most disappointing for my recent drive was having to restrict myself to chain restaurants out of uncertainty of what was open as well as likely better standardized protocols for safety than a local joint may have had (both for their safety and mine).

[SectorZ]

Not surprising this:
https://www.newsbreakapp.com/n/0PXKvGOe?s=a99&pd=03tKkkTW

The Dunks that are closing are only the ones in Speedway gas stations.

[kphoger]

Not surprising this:
https://www.newsbreakapp.com/n/0PXKvGOe?s=a99&pd=03tKkkTW

What was most disappointing for my recent drive was having to restrict myself to chain restaurants out of uncertainty of what was open as well as likely better standardized protocols for safety than a local joint may have had (both for their safety and mine).

Two points about this:

* A lot of chain fast-food restaurants have limited ability to rearrange their space.  Some of them have tables bolted to the floor.  However, some other chains don't have this problem.  For example, the Firehouse Subs near us totally removed half of the tables in their dining area, which makes distancing really easy.

* A lot of sit-down restaurants–whether part of a chain or locally owned–have large booths, half of which are blocked off nowadays.*  Furthermore, if a restaurant isn't a franchise of a nationwide chain, then I suspect the manager feels less pressure to earn every dollar possible, meaning the manager feels less pressure to allow more customers than safe.


*  Note:  A few weeks ago, my parents were at a sit-down restaurant with half the booths blocked off.  When those tables filled up, the server un-blocked the booth next to my parents and seated guests there without asking if that was OK with my parents first.

[hbelkins]

Went in my local Dairy Queen one day last week to pick up something because the drive-through was too backed up for my liking. I noticed that they had every other booth blocked off. That makes no sense. If you are sitting in a booth, your back is to the back of the person in the adjoining booth. Unless people have grown mouths and noses and can breathe, cough, or sneeze out of the backs of their heads, the virus isn't going to spread when people are back-to-back. It's not like a flea that can jump off of you and onto someone else.

[SEWIGuy]

Went in my local Dairy Queen one day last week to pick up something because the drive-through was too backed up for my liking. I noticed that they had every other booth blocked off. That makes no sense. If you are sitting in a booth, your back is to the back of the person in the adjoining booth. Unless people have grown mouths and noses and can breathe, cough, or sneeze out of the backs of their heads, the virus isn't going to spread when people are back-to-back. It's not like a flea that can jump off of you and onto someone else.

It's a way for them to limit the number of people in the place and spread them apart from one another.

[kphoger]

Went in my local Dairy Queen one day last week to pick up something because the drive-through was too backed up for my liking. I noticed that they had every other booth blocked off. That makes no sense. If you are sitting in a booth, your back is to the back of the person in the adjoining booth. Unless people have grown mouths and noses and can breathe, cough, or sneeze out of the backs of their heads, the virus isn't going to spread when people are back-to-back. It's not like a flea that can jump off of you and onto someone else.

It's a way for them to limit the number of people in the place and spread them apart from one another.

Also, not blocking them off would leave not much more than 6 feet between facing diners.

[SEWIGuy]

Went in my local Dairy Queen one day last week to pick up something because the drive-through was too backed up for my liking. I noticed that they had every other booth blocked off. That makes no sense. If you are sitting in a booth, your back is to the back of the person in the adjoining booth. Unless people have grown mouths and noses and can breathe, cough, or sneeze out of the backs of their heads, the virus isn't going to spread when people are back-to-back. It's not like a flea that can jump off of you and onto someone else.

It's a way for them to limit the number of people in the place and spread them apart from one another.

Also, not blocking them off would leave not much more than 6 feet between facing diners.

Right.  Then there is the kid that turns around, the people getting in and out of the booth, etc.

[jakeroot]

I went to a place called Ford's Garage for dinner last week (the location northeast of Fishers, IN), and they had put up clear plastic screens between all the booths. This allowed them to open up all of the booths. The tables were still pretty far apart, as expected.

I also went a place called Texas Roadhouse (chain I hadn't heard of), and they also had clear plastic screens between the booths, but I don't know if this is part of their normal decor. Every other booth was also not being used, from what I could see.

[kphoger]

I went to a place called Ford's Garage for dinner last week (the location northeast of Fishers, IN), and they had put up clear plastic screens between all the booths. This allowed them to open up all of the booths. The tables were still pretty far apart, as expected.

Yes, that's a perfect solution.  I assume it can get expensive, though.  I'm only really familiar with plastic drum shields, but those panels ain't cheap.

I also went a place called Texas Roadhouse (chain I hadn't heard of)

One of the best values around for going on a date, in my opinion.  My wife had never gone to it until last year, and we didn't realize what we were missing.  In my opinion, Texas Roadhouse is worth probably at least 20% more than what they charge.

[jakeroot]

[clipped because I'm on mobile]

The screens weren't like bendable or anything. I think they may have been closer to those shields you describe. Literally just like hard clear plastic.

We have a local "chain" [of two] here in Seattle called Jimmy Macs that takes the place of Texas Roadhouse. I would agree that the value is indeed excellent. Although a growing number of people, including my own girlfriend, do shy away from meat. So presenting it as a date option is risky .