Coronavirus pandemic

[wolfiefrick]

Okay, well then what do you suggest? Do you think it would be feasible to lock down the whole fucking country forever until the last case of this virus is snuffed out?

This is an individual responsibility issue. If you don't want to get the virus, wear a mask, practice social distancing, and don't go out if you have symptoms. The data I've read suggest that it's mostly younger people getting this in Florida, Texas and Arizona, which is why deaths aren't rising nearly as sharply as they did in March-April, and as such they require shorter stays in the ICU, assuming they even need to go there at all!

We should do what we should have done.  Largely shut down for six to eight weeks and open up reponsibly.

And its not simply a personal responsibility issue.  The young are spreading it to the old and vulnerable.  People who haven't engaged in risky behavior.

Vague. What does "responsibly"  mean?

I'm all for trenching populations and trying our best to control people's access to the elderly, especially those who live in nursing homes, so they won't get infected and die in massive numbers.

That's why it was so fitting for you to cleverly choose not to respond to my point that it was absolutely fucking reprehensible for Cuomo to shove old people who tested positive back into their nursing homes.

[wolfiefrick]

And that's all I took out of your post because most of it was uninteresting and uninformative.

And there it is.

Translation: "I didn't like how the statistics you posted contravene my "˜THE SKY IS FALLING!' narrative, so I will choose not to engage in a thoughtful debate about the merit of said statistics, and instead will fire back with a childish platitude. That'll show him!"

Misusing stats is not engaging in thoughtful debate.  It's intellectual dishonestly.  I don't debate with people who are dishonest.

Everything that I predicted would happen when states opened back up without the necessary safety precautions in place is happening.  Increased spread....followed by hospitalizations...followed by deaths. 

Every.  Single.  Thing.

Instead of looking at what other countries have done, invest heavilly in testing and tracing, shutting down for lengthy times and opening up responsibly, we have largely decided to screw it and throw caution to the wind.

And you want to engage in "thoughtful debate" about what exactly?  It's very obvious what needs to be done.  And we won't do it.

I didn't fucking misuse any statistics. I posted them as they were, and derived the obvious conclusion from them that Florida and Texas did exactly what they were supposed to do, while New York and New Jersey, which get tons of praise from the media, utterly botched it. The statistics I posted even prove that we ARE investing in testing, even more than other western countries!

[SEWIGuy]

Okay, well then what do you suggest? Do you think it would be feasible to lock down the whole fucking country forever until the last case of this virus is snuffed out?

This is an individual responsibility issue. If you don't want to get the virus, wear a mask, practice social distancing, and don't go out if you have symptoms. The data I've read suggest that it's mostly younger people getting this in Florida, Texas and Arizona, which is why deaths aren't rising nearly as sharply as they did in March-April, and as such they require shorter stays in the ICU, assuming they even need to go there at all!

We should do what we should have done.  Largely shut down for six to eight weeks and open up reponsibly.

And its not simply a personal responsibility issue.  The young are spreading it to the old and vulnerable.  People who haven't engaged in risky behavior.

Vague. What does "responsibly"  mean?

I'm all for trenching populations and trying our best to control people's access to the elderly, especially those who live in nursing homes, so they won't get infected and die in massive numbers.

That's why it was so fitting for you to cleverly choose not to respond to my point that it was absolutely fucking reprehensible for Cuomo to shove old people who tested positive back into their nursing homes.

Because it wasn't relative to what we were talking about.  Just another way you engage in dishonest debates.

Fine.  Blame him.  Now what?  How do we move forward?  THAT'S what we are talking about.

[SEWIGuy]

And that's all I took out of your post because most of it was uninteresting and uninformative.

And there it is.

Translation: "I didn't like how the statistics you posted contravene my "˜THE SKY IS FALLING!' narrative, so I will choose not to engage in a thoughtful debate about the merit of said statistics, and instead will fire back with a childish platitude. That'll show him!"

Misusing stats is not engaging in thoughtful debate.  It's intellectual dishonestly.  I don't debate with people who are dishonest.

Everything that I predicted would happen when states opened back up without the necessary safety precautions in place is happening.  Increased spread....followed by hospitalizations...followed by deaths. 

Every.  Single.  Thing.

Instead of looking at what other countries have done, invest heavilly in testing and tracing, shutting down for lengthy times and opening up responsibly, we have largely decided to screw it and throw caution to the wind.

And you want to engage in "thoughtful debate" about what exactly?  It's very obvious what needs to be done.  And we won't do it.

I didn't fucking misuse any statistics. I posted them as they were, and derived the obvious conclusion from them that Florida and Texas did exactly what they were supposed to do, while New York and New Jersey, which get tons of praise from the media, utterly botched it. The statistics I posted even prove that we ARE investing in testing, even more than other western countries!

LOL, when you use completely different timeframes, it's not apples to apples.  It's dishonestly.   

Arizona, Florida, and Texas have NOT done what is necessary.  You are blind to what is happening.  Congrats.

[GaryV]

... we were all told to flatten the curve early on during the initial spread of the virus. Florida, Arizona and Texas did an excellent job of doing this, seeing as they are only now experiencing their first major wave of cases and they're not being accompanied by a sharp rise in deaths.

Can you explain just what Florida was doing in March and April to flatten their curve?  Because from what I heard, it was pretty much business as usual.  My thought is that they had just gotten lucky that it hadn't reached them yet.

New York, by contrast, had a policy up until about five seconds ago that forced hospitals to send elderly people who tested positive for COVID-19 BACK TO THEIR NURSING HOMES.

THAT is reprehensible.

Very true.  Michigan did the same thing.  There's a reason nursing home deaths account for nearly a third of all deaths.  Michigan did it at the same time that the 1000-bed field hospital at TCF (formerly Cobo) was essentially empty - because the field hospital "didn't have the capability" to handle nursing home patients.  Huh?

[wolfiefrick]

That's why it was so fitting for you to cleverly choose not to respond to my point that it was absolutely fucking reprehensible for Cuomo to shove old people who tested positive back into their nursing homes.

Because it wasn't relative to what we were talking about.  Just another way you engage in dishonest debates.

Fine.  Blame him.  Now what?  How do we move forward?  THAT'S what we are talking about.

It was, indeed, relative. You called Florida's, Texas', and Arizona's responses to the virus "reprehensible,"  using the logic that, at this point, we know more about the virus and how to prevent it.

I mentioned the nursing home policy because that was actually reprehensible, because New York held onto that policy until May.

Your "dishonest debate"  line is just a cop out. We move forward with the knowledge that a) there is no magic government response to this in a federalist country with 330 million people, b) whoever is going to get it is going to get it, and c) protecting the vulnerable by keeping them away from the rest of the people who need to do their jobs and stimulate the economy is the best way to get through this.

[hotdogPi]

3rd, 4th, and 5th in deaths per capita: CT, MA, and RI. No nursing home policy.

As 6th is Louisiana, it appears that the pattern is simply that the states that got spikes early are the ones with the most deaths.

[wolfiefrick]

3rd, 4th, and 5th in deaths per capita: CT, MA, and RI. No nursing home policy.

As 6th is Louisiana, it appears that the pattern is simply that the states that got spikes early are the ones with the most deaths.

Yeah, that's probably true. I wasn't trying to attribute the deaths simply to the nursing home policies, but there's an argument to be made that there are a lot more people in NY than in CT, MA and RI. I suppose some of those states, especially CT, are in the New York City metro area, so they felt effects of NY's mismanagement of the virus.

What I find *really* interesting is how NOBODY is talking about California right now. They're having the same rise in cases and deaths as are Florida, Texas and Arizona. Gavin Newsom was pretty strict about lockdowns in his state though... maybe they just don't fit the narrative?

Governed by Democrats: NY, NJ, CT, RI, CA
Governed by Republicans: FL, TX, AZ, MA

Hmmm...

[SEWIGuy]

That's why it was so fitting for you to cleverly choose not to respond to my point that it was absolutely fucking reprehensible for Cuomo to shove old people who tested positive back into their nursing homes.

Because it wasn't relative to what we were talking about.  Just another way you engage in dishonest debates.

Fine.  Blame him.  Now what?  How do we move forward?  THAT'S what we are talking about.

It was, indeed, relative. You called Florida's, Texas', and Arizona's responses to the virus "reprehensible,"  using the logic that, at this point, we know more about the virus and how to prevent it.

I mentioned the nursing home policy because that was actually reprehensible, because New York held onto that policy until May.

Your "dishonest debate"  line is just a cop out. We move forward with the knowledge that a) there is no magic government response to this in a federalist country with 330 million people, b) whoever is going to get it is going to get it, and c) protecting the vulnerable by keeping them away from the rest of the people who need to do their jobs and stimulate the economy is the best way to get through this.

a) Who asked for a "magic" response?  More dishonesty.  A more coordinated response could definitely have happened and would have worked better.

b) You have a fundamental misunderstanding of how this disease spreads.  The vulnerable have to work.  They have to go out. It is impossible to do what you are suggeting.

c) No it isn't.  Countries who have engaged in the path you suggest have seen both higher death rates AND shi**y economies.  The economy is going to suck until you tamp down the virus. 

It's very obvious.  Countless examples show that.  Your supposed path results in more death, more spread and an economy that still sucks.

[SEWIGuy]

3rd, 4th, and 5th in deaths per capita: CT, MA, and RI. No nursing home policy.

As 6th is Louisiana, it appears that the pattern is simply that the states that got spikes early are the ones with the most deaths.

For now.
Yeah, that's probably true. I wasn't trying to attribute the deaths simply to the nursing home policies, but there's an argument to be made that there are a lot more people in NY than in CT, MA and RI. I suppose some of those states, especially CT, are in the New York City metro area, so they felt effects of NY's mismanagement of the virus.

What I find *really* interesting is how NOBODY is talking about California right now. They're having the same rise in cases and deaths as are Florida, Texas and Arizona. Gavin Newsom was pretty strict about lockdowns in his state though... maybe they just don't fit the narrative?

Governed by Democrats: NY, NJ, CT, RI, CA
Governed by Republicans: FL, TX, AZ, MA

Hmmm...

[hotdogPi]

MA has a Republican governor, although he's a true moderate. (The legislature is under Democratic control.)

"NY and NJ have more people" means nothing when comparing numbers per capita.

Rising really fast: FL, SC (plus ID, but that's just because Boise is most of the state)
Second fastest: TX, LA, MS, AL, GA, southern CA
Northern CA is below all these.

[wolfiefrick]

"NY and NJ have more people" means nothing when comparing numbers per capita.

True. Really don't know why I mentioned that. I guess I was trying to hypothesize what role the nursing home policies played in the death rates by thinking about population size and how many nursing homes NY has compared to CT.

[tradephoric]

There is a real life story of the Tortoise and the Hare taking place (California is the Tortoise and New York is the Hare).  Ignoring the test positivity rate early in the pandemic when few tests were being done, the test positivity rate in California has been hovering between 4-8% this entire pandemic.  Of the 6 most populous states in the country, California is the only state that hasn't seen a test positivity rate in the double digits (TX, FL, NY, PA, IL have all seen test positivity rates of at least 18%).  On the surface that sounds like good news but the problem is what happens if California starts to see test positivity rates of 20-30% in the fall and winter when the state is in the middle of flu season? 



We have heard about "flattening the curve" but California delaying the big spike in cases now (by reclosing the economy) may mean they will see their spike in cases during the middle of flu season.  That sounds like a worse case scenario.  Or perhaps residents of California are slowly but surely getting infected by the virus and achieving a herd immunity that will prevent the test positivity rate from climbing to 20-30% like all the other populous states have.

[CNGL-Leudimin]

Weren't you under some pretty heavy restrictions early in the pandemic?  I seem to recall you mentioning things like people being unable to leave the house for even exercise. 

Yep, we were under some pretty heavy restrictions. I had to resort to run back and forth through the corridor, something I would have been called crazy at the start of the year. However since early May we are allowed to go outside for exercise again. Still no races, originally I had one of my favorites scheduled for today that I had to do at my own risk. On the bright side I've already secured one entry for 2021, they sell out in few minutes!

[US71]

I noticed today about half the eateries that reopened have gone back to carry-out only.  Doesn't seem to apply to fast feeders, just local mom & pop dine-ins

[NE2]

b) whoever is going to get it is going to get it

What the fuck does this mean?

[US71]

b) whoever is going to get it is going to get it

What the fuck does this mean?

Will of God ^(tm) ?

[ftballfan]

I noticed today about half the eateries that reopened have gone back to carry-out only.  Doesn't seem to apply to fast feeders, just local mom & pop dine-ins

Most of the fast food places in my town have remained drive-thru only and will likely remain that way until there is a vaccine and/or effective treatment. At least one of them has a yard sign listing a phone number for big rigs to call in to order.

[hbelkins]

I love how the skeptics talking points have evolved over the last few weeks:

First it was..."Case counts really don't matter.  Testing is just increasing.  Hospitalizations are what matters."

Then it was..."Sure more are in the hospitals, but they are young and we are treating them better."

Now its..."These people aren't really dying of Covid."

Almost other western country has figured this out.  It's a deadly pandemic which requires a significant societal response.  The longer we delay that response, the longer it will take for us to get things someone back to normal.  Constantly minimizing or ignoring it, won't magically make it go away.

https://cbs12.com/news/local/man-who-died-in-motorcycle-crash-counted-as-covid-19-death-in-florida-report

Congratulations on finding one out of 131,000.

(If anything, again, we're likely undercounting; see reply #5084. Unless there's also something else going around killing thousands more than usual that we haven't identified.)

Did you even bother to read the links within?  Here, I'll make it easy and add it here: https://cbs12.com/news/coronavirus/dozens-of-florida-labs-still-report-only-positive-covid-tests-skewing-positivity-rate

I know of three instances in Kentucky where COVID deaths were improperly listed.

Lincoln County, person died of kidney failure, listed as COVID.

Carter County, person died of cancer, listed as COVID.

(In both of those cases, the families went public to dispute the COVID reports, but AFAIK the state never backed off the claims.)

And in Hopkins County, an infant died of SIDS but was reported as COVID. I haven't been able to follow that case as closely as the other two, as it's on the other end of the state.

[Duke87]

3rd, 4th, and 5th in deaths per capita: CT, MA, and RI. No nursing home policy.

As 6th is Louisiana, it appears that the pattern is simply that the states that got spikes early are the ones with the most deaths.

Yeah, that's probably true. I wasn't trying to attribute the deaths simply to the nursing home policies, but there's an argument to be made that there are a lot more people in NY than in CT, MA and RI. I suppose some of those states, especially CT, are in the New York City metro area, so they felt effects of NY's mismanagement of the virus.

Dunno about MA and RI, but here in CT we definitely had a huge nursing home problem. The state tried to set up a system where they'd set some nursing homes aside specifically for covid-positive residents only in the hopes of isolating them from the others, and move people around as needed to try to keep the sick patients and the healthy ones in different places.

This backfired royally, once they started moving people around it just created a way for the virus to start spreading between nursing homes. Our state pubic health commissioner ended up getting fired back in May over this.

What I find *really* interesting is how NOBODY is talking about California right now. They're having the same rise in cases and deaths as are Florida, Texas and Arizona. Gavin Newsom was pretty strict about lockdowns in his state though... maybe they just don't fit the narrative?

This is because government policies don't enable or inhibit the spread of a virus, people's behavior does. Strict rules handed down from the governor's mansion aren't effective if people don't follow them.

New York and New Jersey not only made strict rules, they also threw resources into enforcement and made it clear they weren't fucking around. Connecticut in comparison has been a bit looser with its rules than most of its northeastern peers and hasn't brought the enforcement hammer down very hard... but Connecticut is full of the type of people who even in normal times bathe their kids in Purell and go to the doctor once a week to make sure their freckles aren't skin cancer, so enforcement hasn't been necessary.

There is a real life story of the Tortoise and the Hare taking place (California is the Tortoise and New York is the Hare).

Quick question: what website are you getting these graphs from?

[Roadgeekteen]

b) whoever is going to get it is going to get it

What the fuck does this mean?

I mean we all die eventually.

[ozarkman417]

b) whoever is going to get it is going to get it

What the fuck does this mean?

Natural Selection.

[Max Rockatansky]

Weren't you under some pretty heavy restrictions early in the pandemic?  I seem to recall you mentioning things like people being unable to leave the house for even exercise. 

Yep, we were under some pretty heavy restrictions. I had to resort to run back and forth through the corridor, something I would have been called crazy at the start of the year. However since early May we are allowed to go outside for exercise again. Still no races, originally I had one of my favorites scheduled for today that I had to do at my own risk. On the bright side I've already secured one entry for 2021, they sell out in few minutes!

I remember I was preparing to resort to some pretty weird stuff regarding exercise myself upon hearing stories like that and the rumors that were floating around California.  I'm still kind of surprised that Fresno of all places was one of the first places that decided to do a city wide lock down in the entire U.S.  I had a railroad grade even picked up just outside the City Limits just in case I needed it.  It got pretty dicey for awhile when there was a 50 mile radius rule (not a state rule) that was put in place.  I never bothered to put my garage back together since I assumed correctly the state wouldn't hesitate to shut gyms down again.  If anything I've been expanding it whenever I can find things to add.  At minimum the crack down on outdoor exercises State Side are something I don't think will back track.

[webny99]

The states that didn't take this pandemic seriously at the beginning are getting hit hard now. These are mostly states where people spent a lot of time outdoors in the nice March/April/May weather, and are now indoors in the A/C breathing re-circulated (and in some cases, COVID-filled) air.

Of course hospitalizations/deaths are increasing much more slowly in the South now than they were in NYC in April. But please, that's not an accomplishment: We're 4-1/2 months in to this thing! Old people are being quite cautious for the most part, there's preventative measures like mask wearing and social distancing, there's less travel, we know more about the virus, etc., etc., etc.

Call the response in Southern states bungled if you wish - it has been less than stellar, and it is truly wild that mask debates are still raging - but I think a big increase in cases in the South in these hot summer months was basically inevitable.

[Max Rockatansky]

The states that didn't take this pandemic seriously at the beginning are getting hit hard now. These are mostly states where people spent a lot of time outdoors in the nice March/April/May weather, and are now indoors in the A/C breathing re-circulated (and in some cases, COVID-filled) air.

Of course hospitalizations/deaths are increasing much more slowly in the South now than they were in NYC in April. But please, that's not an accomplishment: We're 4-1/2 months in to this thing! Old people are being quite cautious for the most part, there's preventative measures like mask wearing and social distancing, there's less travel, we know more about the virus, etc., etc., etc.

Call the response in Southern states bungled if you wish - it has been less than stellar, and it is truly wild that mask debates are still raging - but I think a big increase in cases in the South in these hot summer months was basically inevitable.

A lot that did take it seriously are being hit just as hard anyways, sure seems that way here in California.  People probably don't want to hear this but there was probably no stopping a run of the virus once it got here.  I don't think any of the States that had early lock downs even had the goal of "stopping the virus" but rather keeping hospitalizations from getting out of control like they did in Europe and NYC.