Cities/states that will grow/shrink the fastest post-COVID

[planxtymcgillicuddy]

Which cities or states could you see growing the fastest in a post-COVID world? I see anywhere along the 85 corridor booming, especially through central NC/upstate SC. Particularly places like Greenville/Spartanburg, Gastonia, Lexington, Salisbury, High Point, etc. I think a lot of Urban Corridorians/Atlantans/Floridians will want to leave out and start anew, and the Carolinas would be fertile ground for such moves. I also see western states like Utah and Idaho having a post-COVID population boom over the coming decade or two. St. George, UT, Boise, ID and Reno, NV all spring to mind with this. In terms of shrinking, obviously the megalopoli of America would take a sizeable hit. They won't become ghost towns, but quite a few will see a noticeable decrease. Places like NYC/LA/Chicago/etc

[hotdogPi]

I have been expecting the cities you mentioned to grow quickly even without COVID. The difference is that my expectation has the Phoenix area and Florida becoming much less, while a post-COVID world would have the really dense cities decline in population instead. (Tampa and Orlando would probably grow in a post-COVID world if disregarding climate change.) Denver also wouldn't become a huge city in a post-COVID world, instead staying about where it is now.

[thspfc]

Can't imagine Madison, or even Dane County, is an attractive place to move for very many people after all of the restrictions that we've got here compared to the rest of the state and country. Of course Madison still lives and dies with the university, so as long as the university grows the town will grow no matter what.

[kphoger]

I anticipate that, in a post-COVID world, the pandemic will end up having very little effect on growth patterns.  People will forget and move on with life.

[Revive 755]

Nominating Illinois for fastest shrinking.

[kphoger]

I just realized that the closure of large employment hubs may have a larger impact than I was originally considering.

[corco]

If Zillow is right my house here in Boise has appreciated 19% since COVID started, so I'd say that's a fair assessment.

[TheHighwayMan3561]

Can't imagine Madison, or even Dane County, is an attractive place to move for very many people after all of the restrictions that we've got here compared to the rest of the state and country. Of course Madison still lives and dies with the university, so as long as the university grows the town will grow no matter what.

I would say though it's a very appealing city for outdoorsy people with the lakes, trails, and at times annoyingly bike-friendly culture. Add in that being in the university city means top-shelf health care and that's a winner for many, though jobs not related to the university or state government might be hard to come by.

[Rothman]

There waa some article that said that Syracuse, NY would be the hardest hit city...mainly because the weather is some of the worst in the country and a lot of people just needed a little nudge to look to greener fields.

But, the real estate market right now makes no sense whatsoever as prices have actually gone up in upstate NY.  Some say it is due to people fleeing NYC, which is true, but I don't understand why they're fleeing north.

[Brandon]

Nominating Illinois for fastest shrinking.

That will have less to do with Covid than with other, pre-existing factors.  All Covid did was to exacerbate it.

[bandit957]

University towns have been some of the fastest growing places in America for the past 40 years, but now everyone knows universities are a joke, so I don't think those will keep growing.

[NWI_Irish96]

I think at least a fair amount of the massive shift to telework caused by COVID will stick around once this is over. With people commuting less to offices, people will be less constrained by where their office is when choosing where to live. This could hurt cities and close-in suburbs. If someone only has to go to their office 1-2 days a week, that 3000 square foot house that's an hour commute from the office becomes more attractive than the 1800 square foot townhome that costs the same and is a 20 minute commute.

Also, with people commuting less, being located to public transportation becomes less important so suburbs of big cities that aren't near commuter rail lines might get some growth.

[3467]

It's the long term effect of remote work and that just isn't clear except it will be much larger.
A lot depends on how long the vaccine works and if we foolishly allow reservoirs link mink farms to exist where it can mutate.

[webny99]

...

But, the real estate market right now makes no sense whatsoever as prices have actually gone up in upstate NY.  Some say it is due to people fleeing NYC, which is true, but I don't understand why they're fleeing north.

That's actually just what I clicked on this thread to mention. It's crazy here in the Rochester area, too; at one point earlier this year it was among the hottest markets in the country. We've also got Kodak and now Amazon ramping up here, so no doubt that plays some role too.

Maybe the people leaving NYC just don't want to move to a different state.

[hotdogPi]

...

But, the real estate market right now makes no sense whatsoever as prices have actually gone up in upstate NY.  Some say it is due to people fleeing NYC, which is true, but I don't understand why they're fleeing north.

That's actually just what I clicked on this thread to mention. It's crazy here in the Rochester area, too; at one point earlier this year it was among the hottest markets in the country. We've also got Kodak and now Amazon ramping up here, so no doubt that plays some role too.

Maybe the people leaving NYC just don't want to move to a different state.

It might also be partly because the region stretching from Erie PA to all of ME (through upstate NY and all of VT and NH) is one of the two places in the continental US mostly unaffected by COVID. (The other is WA/OR and stretching to the Bay Area.)

[webny99]

...

But, the real estate market right now makes no sense whatsoever as prices have actually gone up in upstate NY.  Some say it is due to people fleeing NYC, which is true, but I don't understand why they're fleeing north.

That's actually just what I clicked on this thread to mention. It's crazy here in the Rochester area, too; at one point earlier this year it was among the hottest markets in the country. We've also got Kodak and now Amazon ramping up here, so no doubt that plays some role too.

Maybe the people leaving NYC just don't want to move to a different state.

It might also be partly because the region stretching from Erie PA to all of ME (through upstate NY and all of VT and NH) is one of the two places in the continental US mostly unaffected by COVID. (The other is WA/OR and stretching to the Bay Area.)

I realized from the very early stages of the pandemic that it was going to be a major advantage to be in a state that got hit hard, but an area of the state far removed from the worst of the outbreak. That has certainly been borne out so far: most people in this area have taken the pandemic very seriously, and mask-wearing was the norm by April/May, months earlier than other parts of the country.

[hotdogPi]

...

But, the real estate market right now makes no sense whatsoever as prices have actually gone up in upstate NY.  Some say it is due to people fleeing NYC, which is true, but I don't understand why they're fleeing north.

That's actually just what I clicked on this thread to mention. It's crazy here in the Rochester area, too; at one point earlier this year it was among the hottest markets in the country. We've also got Kodak and now Amazon ramping up here, so no doubt that plays some role too.

Maybe the people leaving NYC just don't want to move to a different state.

It might also be partly because the region stretching from Erie PA to all of ME (through upstate NY and all of VT and NH) is one of the two places in the continental US mostly unaffected by COVID. (The other is WA/OR and stretching to the Bay Area.)

I realized from the very early stages of the pandemic that it was going to be a major advantage to be in a state that got hit hard, but an area of the state far removed from the worst of the outbreak. That has certainly been borne out so far: most people in this area have taken the pandemic very seriously, and mask-wearing was the norm by April/May, months earlier than other parts of the country.

I'm not sure that's the reason. It's a continuous region that includes all of NY except downstate, VT, NH (although that may be changing), and ME. Erie PA is on the edge, and it may include some of western MA. (VT is actually doing better than upstate NY.) In addition, remember when it was mainly Seattle? The central and eastern parts of Washington don't seem to have cared about this, while the western part of the state is doing really well.

[kphoger]

I just realized that the closure of large employment hubs may have a larger impact than I was originally considering.

Question as a follow-up to this thought:  Can anyone think of a large corporation that's ended up shutting down a large employment center somewhere–one large enough to measurably affect the population of the city due to egress?

[SP Cook]

You are all making the "accountant's fallacy"  which is assuming the item you need exists.   There is no COVID 19 cure, and may very well never be.  But I will play along.

- Telework.  A lot of businesses have figured out that they can work just fine, thank you very much, remotely.   If a particular white collar job, or something like 90% of it, can be done just fine from your employees' basements, then renting mega-expensive downtown office space really does not make much sense.  Lots of people will spend 90% or more of their time in a home-office. 

- Telework, part two.  Now, if a business can be done just as well from your employee's suburban sub-division, it can be done, in many cases, from most anywhere with functional internet, and a few other things (functional air connections, business support infrastructure, etc.).  So people will leave poorly run high tax places with bad climates for well run low tax places with good climates. 

- Tele-education.  I think that we can all agree that tele-education of high schoolers and certainly of grade schoolers has failed totally.  However, most college subjects can be done quite well.  Not much of STEM or of health care, but you can learn most things just fine on-line.  Now, certainly, a lot of rich kids will continue to go to traditional college because they want to blow off four years, but a lot of average kids and poor kids will just move to the on line model.  Lots of college towns will get smaller.

- The junket.  The WSJ predicts that there will be a permanent 30% drop in air travel demand.  Part of this is covered above.   You do not need to go to HQ if there is no HQ.  Your CPA working in the Cincinnati suburbs will just facetime with his boss working in the Chicago suburbs.  But also, the big meeting / junket is getting cut back.  Now, certainly some companies will keep it up, particularly those who use it more for junket purposes than actual learning, but more serious companies will just zoom everyone.

- NYC.  Wall street.  It can all be done on the computer.

[brad2971]

You are all making the "accountant's fallacy"  which is assuming the item you need exists.   There is no COVID 19 cure, and may very well never be.  But I will play along.

- Telework.  A lot of businesses have figured out that they can work just fine, thank you very much, remotely.   If a particular white collar job, or something like 90% of it, can be done just fine from your employees' basements, then renting mega-expensive downtown office space really does not make much sense.  Lots of people will spend 90% or more of their time in a home-office. 

- Telework, part two.  Now, if a business can be done just as well from your employee's suburban sub-division, it can be done, in many cases, from most anywhere with functional internet, and a few other things (functional air connections, business support infrastructure, etc.).  So people will leave poorly run high tax places with bad climates for well run low tax places with good climates. 

- Tele-education.  I think that we can all agree that tele-education of high schoolers and certainly of grade schoolers has failed totally.  However, most college subjects can be done quite well.  Not much of STEM or of health care, but you can learn most things just fine on-line.  Now, certainly, a lot of rich kids will continue to go to traditional college because they want to blow off four years, but a lot of average kids and poor kids will just move to the on line model.  Lots of college towns will get smaller.

- The junket.  The WSJ predicts that there will be a permanent 30% drop in air travel demand.  Part of this is covered above.   You do not need to go to HQ if there is no HQ.  Your CPA working in the Cincinnati suburbs will just facetime with his boss working in the Chicago suburbs.  But also, the big meeting / junket is getting cut back.  Now, certainly some companies will keep it up, particularly those who use it more for junket purposes than actual learning, but more serious companies will just zoom everyone.

- NYC.  Wall street.  It can all be done on the computer.

Two things:

1. The "permanent 30% drop in air travel demand" will turn into a 30% increase in air travel demand shortly after either a very painful Zoom downtime situation, or Zoom "accidentally" lets private information related to the conference calls get into the hands of Chinese and Russian hackers. This is regardless of what happens with the various COVID vaccines.

2 But let's play along with this notion of the "permanent 30% drop in air travel demand." That only means that any and all attempts at high-speed rail will end (Brightline West, I'm looking at you LOL) because the airline tickets will be...too competitively priced. Even with that, "permanent 30% drop in air travel demand" won't last long.

[kphoger]

You are all making the "accountant's fallacy"  which is assuming the item you need exists.   There is no COVID 19 cure, and may very well never be.  But I will play along.

- Telework.  A lot of businesses have figured out that they can work just fine, thank you very much, remotely.   If a particular white collar job, or something like 90% of it, can be done just fine from your employees' basements, then renting mega-expensive downtown office space really does not make much sense.  Lots of people will spend 90% or more of their time in a home-office. 

- Telework, part two.  Now, if a business can be done just as well from your employee's suburban sub-division, it can be done, in many cases, from most anywhere with functional internet, and a few other things (functional air connections, business support infrastructure, etc.).  So people will leave poorly run high tax places with bad climates for well run low tax places with good climates. 

- Tele-education.  I think that we can all agree that tele-education of high schoolers and certainly of grade schoolers has failed totally.  However, most college subjects can be done quite well.  Not much of STEM or of health care, but you can learn most things just fine on-line.  Now, certainly, a lot of rich kids will continue to go to traditional college because they want to blow off four years, but a lot of average kids and poor kids will just move to the on line model.  Lots of college towns will get smaller.

- The junket.  The WSJ predicts that there will be a permanent 30% drop in air travel demand.  Part of this is covered above.   You do not need to go to HQ if there is no HQ.  Your CPA working in the Cincinnati suburbs will just facetime with his boss working in the Chicago suburbs.  But also, the big meeting / junket is getting cut back.  Now, certainly some companies will keep it up, particularly those who use it more for junket purposes than actual learning, but more serious companies will just zoom everyone.

- NYC.  Wall street.  It can all be done on the computer.

Alternative scenario:  Things basically go back to normal within a few years, regardless of the status of the pandemic.

[webny99]

I realized from the very early stages of the pandemic that it was going to be a major advantage to be in a state that got hit hard, but an area of the state far removed from the worst of the outbreak. That has certainly been borne out so far: most people in this area have taken the pandemic very seriously, and mask-wearing was the norm by April/May, months earlier than other parts of the country.

I'm not sure that's the reason. It's a continuous region that includes all of NY except downstate, VT, NH (although that may be changing), and ME. Erie PA is on the edge, and it may include some of western MA. (VT is actually doing better than upstate NY.) In addition, remember when it was mainly Seattle? The central and eastern parts of Washington don't seem to have cared about this, while the western part of the state is doing really well.

I'm not saying it's the only reason, but it is one of the reasons. Our state government took it very seriously because of the severity of the NYC outbreak, and while the focus was on the NYC area, the leadership (including things like messages on VMS signs, etc.) was good for the entire state, not just NYC. Also, keep in mind that Vermont and much of New Hampshire and Maine are very rural. The only major cities in the region you outlined are in Upstate New York; that's not just coincidence.

With regards to the Seattle comparison, their outbreak was not as bad as NYC's, and it was also earlier, when fewer people overall took it seriously. New York also made things like self-quarantining, quarantining after travel, mask-wearing, and their VMS campaigns statewide issues, while I doubt that was the case in central/eastern WA.

In addition, the phenomenon of people in rural areas dismissing COVID as a "big city problem" didn't affect Upstate NY in the same way as rural WA, because of the statewide campaigns and the general understanding that, because we share a state with the biggest city in the county, we're going to be directly affected by what happens there. There's never been a sense of COVID being far away and unable to ever reach us, and that's certainly thanks to NYC, as well as higher population density and the fact that there are smaller cities scattered throughout the state through which the virus could spread. This is also in contrast to Midwestern and other rural areas that have had/are now having bad outbreaks.

[Rothman]

My wife works the NYSDOH hotline.  This rosy-colored view of NY is false.  State-run testing sites are now overwhelmed in Albany and Buffalo.  Upstate NY has not been immune to the second wave.  NY may not be the Dakotas, but things are getting worse here.

[webny99]

NY may not be the Dakotas, but things are getting worse here.

Right, I was never expecting to get all the way to full vaccine distribution without things getting bad here, but the fact that we've gone this long without things getting out of hand is a testament to the factors I outlined.

[Roadgeekteen]

Hopefully, the Dakota's don't shrink that much.