The Census has released its population estimates for 2020

[kphoger]

For example, here's an interesting comparison I just whipped up:

[hotdogPi]

How did Puerto Rico do compared to 2019 estimates? I expect it to go down significantly because of Hurricane Maria, but I don't know how much the estimates accounted for that.

[kalvado]

Are these numbers going to affect vaccination percentages?

Not really. Largest discrepancy between estimate and census count is 4.6%.
That is enough to turn 44.6% first shot in NYS as of now  into 42.6% vaccinated. Not really a deal breaker

[Road Hog]

I see the new census numbers as a push politically. I wouldn't count Texas as safe red going forward, although the new seats will likely be gerrymandered red. Ohio and West Virginia are red states, and the other states that do independent redistricting (even California) are in play enough where it's 50-50. California could actually go -1 in red seats if it plays out that way. Same with NY and IL.

[GenExpwy]

And as outlined in this map:

https://mcusercontent.com/d525ab9ade4d860d2b5772468/images/9f3dcfb4-c61e-4c65-9d39-2e7bb761e6ac.png

West Virginia is the only state to lose population 1950-2020.  Other states have grown fast and others slow, but only one state has less people today than 70 years ago.  When WV had SIX congressmen, or roughly 6/435ths of the population.

West Virginia also becomes the second state to have fewer than half as many representatives as it did after the 1900 Census. WV had 5 after the 1900 Census, and now it will have 2. (The size of the House was 386 after the 1900 reapportionment.) The other is Iowa, which went from 11 post-1900 to 4 today.

[kernals12]

Demographer Lyman Stone thinks that there was some double counting caused by the enormous number of New Yorkers who moved due to the lockdown (people retreating to second homes, college students moving back in with parents etc.)

[Dirt Roads]

And as outlined in this map:

https://mcusercontent.com/d525ab9ade4d860d2b5772468/images/9f3dcfb4-c61e-4c65-9d39-2e7bb761e6ac.png

West Virginia is the only state to lose population 1950-2020.  Other states have grown fast and others slow, but only one state has less people today than 70 years ago.  When WV had SIX congressmen, or roughly 6/435ths of the population.

West Virginia also becomes the second state to have fewer than half as many representatives as it did after the 1900 Census. WV had 5 after the 1900 Census, and now it will have 2. (The size of the House was 386 after the 1900 reapportionment.) The other is Iowa, which went from 11 post-1900 to 4 today.

Of course, the common joke about the education system in West Virginia is partly to blame. 
[Repeat from MTR days:]  Three R's:  Readin', 'Ritin' and "Road to Columbus" (1970s); Readin', 'Ritin' and "Road to Charlotte" (1980s).

[SP Cook]

Is the census 100% perfect?  No.  Like every other work of man, it is imperfect.

Is there any evidence of any ill will or purposeful ignoring of any group of any type?  None whatsoever. 

Is there any evidence that the tiny fraction of 1% who refused to participate changed any result in any meaningful way?  None whatsoever.

The numbers are what they are.  Move on.

[webny99]

Demographer Lyman Stone thinks that there was some double counting caused by the enormous number of New Yorkers who moved due to the lockdown (people retreating to second homes, college students moving back in with parents etc.)

I don't really buy it. I'm sure the census isn't 100% perfect, but I think the numbers for Upstate NY have been excessively pessimistic throughout the 2010's, so it's good to see some mean reversion.

I can't wait for the county data, but I won't be at all surprised if it's the urban and suburban Upstate counties that are contributing to the error more so than NYC and environs.

[kalvado]

Demographer Lyman Stone thinks that there was some double counting caused by the enormous number of New Yorkers who moved due to the lockdown (people retreating to second homes, college students moving back in with parents etc.)

I don't really buy it. I'm sure the census isn't 100% perfect, but I think the numbers for Upstate NY have been excessively pessimistic throughout the 2010's, so it's good to see some mean reversion.

I can't wait for the county data, but I won't be at all surprised if it's the urban and suburban Upstate counties that are contributing to the error more so than NYC and environs.

I can very easily see some talk about "you moved here, you need to fill census form over here now - otherwise we have no resources to support community!" coming from local officials as more people moved out of NYC due to covid. There is a clear reason for them to do that - money - even if this is slightly against "as of 4/1" model.
Moreover, efforts to reach undercounted via alternative  data sources can easily be a part of it - those who were in NYC on 4/1, but fled afterwards may even not fill the form in the city themselves, but data can be obtained via alternative channels.

[NWI_Irish96]

Demographer Lyman Stone thinks that there was some double counting caused by the enormous number of New Yorkers who moved due to the lockdown (people retreating to second homes, college students moving back in with parents etc.)

I don't really buy it. I'm sure the census isn't 100% perfect, but I think the numbers for Upstate NY have been excessively pessimistic throughout the 2010's, so it's good to see some mean reversion.

I can't wait for the county data, but I won't be at all surprised if it's the urban and suburban Upstate counties that are contributing to the error more so than NYC and environs.

I can very easily see some talk about "you moved here, you need to fill census form over here now - otherwise we have no resources to support community!" coming from local officials as more people moved out of NYC due to covid. There is a clear reason for them to do that - money - even if this is slightly against "as of 4/1" model.
Moreover, efforts to reach undercounted via alternative  data sources can easily be a part of it - those who were in NYC on 4/1, but fled afterwards may even not fill the form in the city themselves, but data can be obtained via alternative channels.

Pretty sure I mentioned this once already, but there is a matching operation that weeds out duplicate responses. If a family filled out a second form at a second location, it would get eliminated.

[kalvado]

Is the census 100% perfect?  No.  Like every other work of man, it is imperfect.

Is there any evidence of any ill will or purposeful ignoring of any group of any type?  None whatsoever. 

Is there any evidence that the tiny fraction of 1% who refused to participate changed any result in any meaningful way?  None whatsoever.

The numbers are what they are.  Move on.

Gov. Cuomo II disagrees!
https://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/new-york-elections-government/ny-state-census-cuomo-congressional-district-lawsuit-20210427-tmmau4xlsved5h3jkpwrp4z6aq-story.html

New York is considering a lawsuit after losing a representative in the House amid a Census that saw the Empire State fall just 89 people short of keeping all its seats.

[kalvado]

Demographer Lyman Stone thinks that there was some double counting caused by the enormous number of New Yorkers who moved due to the lockdown (people retreating to second homes, college students moving back in with parents etc.)

I don't really buy it. I'm sure the census isn't 100% perfect, but I think the numbers for Upstate NY have been excessively pessimistic throughout the 2010's, so it's good to see some mean reversion.

I can't wait for the county data, but I won't be at all surprised if it's the urban and suburban Upstate counties that are contributing to the error more so than NYC and environs.

I can very easily see some talk about "you moved here, you need to fill census form over here now - otherwise we have no resources to support community!" coming from local officials as more people moved out of NYC due to covid. There is a clear reason for them to do that - money - even if this is slightly against "as of 4/1" model.
Moreover, efforts to reach undercounted via alternative  data sources can easily be a part of it - those who were in NYC on 4/1, but fled afterwards may even not fill the form in the city themselves, but data can be obtained via alternative channels.

Pretty sure I mentioned this once already, but there is a matching operation that weeds out duplicate responses. If a family filled out a second form at a second location, it would get eliminated.

Question is about the efficiency of such filtration. I doubt it will work 100% - and it may be interesting to see how this would get scrutinized.
And I suspect it will, as NYS legal efforts are almost certain to proceed all the way up to SCOTUS.

[kphoger]

Is the census 100% perfect?  No.  Like every other work of man, it is imperfect.

Is there any evidence of any ill will or purposeful ignoring of any group of any type?  None whatsoever. 

Is there any evidence that the tiny fraction of 1% who refused to participate changed any result in any meaningful way?  None whatsoever.

The numbers are what they are.  Move on.

Gov. Cuomo II disagrees!
https://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/new-york-elections-government/ny-state-census-cuomo-congressional-district-lawsuit-20210427-tmmau4xlsved5h3jkpwrp4z6aq-story.html

New York is considering a lawsuit after losing a representative in the House amid a Census that saw the Empire State fall just 89 people short of keeping all its seats.

Reminds me of Florida counting hanging chads.  Or a football team challenging a ref call.

[NWI_Irish96]

Is the census 100% perfect?  No.  Like every other work of man, it is imperfect.

Is there any evidence of any ill will or purposeful ignoring of any group of any type?  None whatsoever. 

Is there any evidence that the tiny fraction of 1% who refused to participate changed any result in any meaningful way?  None whatsoever.

The numbers are what they are.  Move on.

Gov. Cuomo II disagrees!
https://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/new-york-elections-government/ny-state-census-cuomo-congressional-district-lawsuit-20210427-tmmau4xlsved5h3jkpwrp4z6aq-story.html

New York is considering a lawsuit after losing a representative in the House amid a Census that saw the Empire State fall just 89 people short of keeping all its seats.

First of all, even though I'm not an official spokesperson for the Bureau, in the event that a lawsuit gets filed, everybody is likely to be put under a gag order, so I would no longer be able to contribute to this discussion.

Since it hasn't yet been filed, I can say is that the threatened lawsuit has no merit, and even if it somehow gets through the lower courts, there's no way this Supreme Court takes a seat from MN and gives it to NY. This is nothing more than wasting taxpayers money on a lawsuit so the governor can demonstrate that he's "fighting for his people" [and perhaps to distract from his other issues]

Also, as to the 1% that never respond, there are alternative methods to get a count in those cases. A state or locality doesn't just not get people counted because they don't respond.

[kphoger]

Florida counting hanging chads.  Or a football team challenging a ref call.

This is nothing more than ... the governor can demonstrate that he's "fighting for his people" [and perhaps to distract from his other issues]

Yep.  You say potato...

[Rick Powell]

In my town, any house listed for sale will get immediate cash offers at $30k or more above list price from people wanting to move from IL. Indiana gained 4.7%, compared to 2.3% for Ohio, 2.0% for Michigan, and Illinois lost 0.1%.

But Lake County IN as a whole isn't experiencing a population boom as would be expected from all those folks supposedly just waiting to move across the state line. 2010 - 496k 2019 est. - 485k, a 2% drop.

[webny99]

Florida counting hanging chads.  Or a football team challenging a ref call.

This is nothing more than ... the governor can demonstrate that he's "fighting for his people" [and perhaps to distract from his other issues]

Yep.  You say potato...

The funny thing is that many people were expecting NY to lose two seats. It's crazy that it came that close to being zero, but IMO we should still just be happy it was only one.

[NWI_Irish96]

In my town, any house listed for sale will get immediate cash offers at $30k or more above list price from people wanting to move from IL. Indiana gained 4.7%, compared to 2.3% for Ohio, 2.0% for Michigan, and Illinois lost 0.1%.

But Lake County IN as a whole isn't experiencing a population boom as would be expected from all those folks supposedly just waiting to move across the state line. 2010 - 496k 2019 est. - 485k, a 2% drop.

A market boom that started in 2020 wouldn't be reflected in 2019 population estimates, though it is noteworthy that 2019 was the first year of increase over the previous year in a long time.

[Scott5114]

Also, as to the 1% that never respond, there are alternative methods to get a count in those cases. A state or locality doesn't just not get people counted because they don't respond.

What are some of these methods? Are they estimation-type methods or do they rely on other data sources, like public records?

[NWI_Irish96]

Also, as to the 1% that never respond, there are alternative methods to get a count in those cases. A state or locality doesn't just not get people counted because they don't respond.

What are some of these methods? Are they estimation-type methods or do they rely on other data sources, like public records?

My understanding is that estimation is a last resort. Neighbors and public records are used first.

[hotdogPi]

Also, as to the 1% that never respond, there are alternative methods to get a count in those cases. A state or locality doesn't just not get people counted because they don't respond.

What are some of these methods? Are they estimation-type methods or do they rely on other data sources, like public records?

My understanding is that estimation is a last resort. Neighbors and public records are used first.

I believe the New York numbers. What I don't believe is the lower numbers in states with high percentages of Hispanics (although Puerto Rico, not a state and with high uncertainty due to the hurricane, exceeded expectations). Do you have an explanation for that?

[Dirt Roads]

For example, here's an interesting comparison I just whipped up:

Great stats.  But regarding "standard of living" it seems like the percentage of rent versus wages makes more sense.  Amazingly, that raises Iowa (1), Kansas (2), Oklahoma (3), Wyoming (4) and Wisconsin (5) to the top; but not surprisingly droops California (50), New York (49), Hawaii (48), Florida (47) and Massachusetts (46) to the bottom. 

[Scott5114]

But that's not an ideal metric for "standard of living" either. Oklahoma is very cheap to live in, but the education system here is horrible due to years of budget cuts, so if you have kids and it's important to you that they don't grow up to be stupid, then Oklahoma may not be the place for you. It's also got a horrible climate, with 100° days and high humidity common in the summer, cold wind in the winter, and strong tornadoes in the springtime. If you're poor or unemployed, the state doesn't really do a whole lot to help you out. You have to look at ODOT road signs any time you go anywhere.

That's not saying Oklahoma is awful either. I could leave if I wanted to, but I haven't yet. But what I'm getting at is that you will never be able to quantify "standard of living" because people have different standards for what's important to them in life. Some people care only about the bottom line when it comes to choosing a state to live in. If you do, then Oklahoma is likely to be an attractive option. Others take a more holistic view and thus may be more likely to enjoy living in California, New York, or Hawaii and find spending the money to do so worth it.

[kphoger]

the education system here is horrible due to years of budget cuts, so if you have kids and it's important to you that they don't grow up to be stupid, then Oklahoma may not be the place for you.

Of course, throwing money at an education system doesn't necessarily make it any better.