Cars Are Now Rolling Computers: So What Happens When They Stop Getting Updates?

[Brandon]

You buy a new one, just like a computer.

Sure, cause everyone has $50,000 to spend every 4 years on a new model.

As I said above, if that's the business model the car manufacturers want to go with, all of a sudden transit will start to look real nice for a lot of people.

They'll go with older used vehicles instead.  The average age and mileage of the typical vehicle will climb as people would rather maintain and keep than buy a new $50k car.

[kalvado]

You buy a new one, just like a computer.

Sure, cause everyone has $50,000 to spend every 4 years on a new model.

As I said above, if that's the business model the car manufacturers want to go with, all of a sudden transit will start to look real nice for a lot of people.

I'm pretty sure the business model they want to go with is making the car itself a subscription.

it is called "lease"

[ZLoth]

You buy a new one, just like a computer.

Cars are much more expensive than personal computers, and most of purchase a car, pay off the loan, and then drive it until it no longer runs which is about 15-20 years. I know personally that I cannot afford a new car until I get my home paid off, and that won't occur until early 2030. That means I have to TLC of my existing vehicles and cross my fingers.

[vdeane]

You buy a new one, just like a computer.

Sure, cause everyone has $50,000 to spend every 4 years on a new model.

As I said above, if that's the business model the car manufacturers want to go with, all of a sudden transit will start to look real nice for a lot of people.

I'm pretty sure the business model they want to go with is making the car itself a subscription.

it is called "lease"

That's what they're currently pushing, but the long-term goal is self-driving cars that you would summon on a phone app when you want one.

[MikieTimT]

If you live in an area with little to no road salting and not literally on the coast, as long as the body stays painted and not wrecked, there's no reason that a replacement/rebuilt engine or transmission wouldn't keep a 10 year or older car on the road.  Tech is just a distraction and source of obsolescence.  Besides, other than the tiny screen, a smartphone is imminently more useful than anything OEMs put into cars anymore as long as you at least have a Bluetooth headunit.

[kkt]

You buy a new one, just like a computer.

Sure, cause everyone has $50,000 to spend every 4 years on a new model.

As I said above, if that's the business model the car manufacturers want to go with, all of a sudden transit will start to look real nice for a lot of people.

I'm pretty sure the business model they want to go with is making the car itself a subscription.

If I wanted to lease a car, I would have done so already.

I'm a buy it new and then drive it until it falls apart guy.

[kalvado]

If you live in an area with little to no road salting and not literally on the coast, as long as the body stays painted and not wrecked, there's no reason that a replacement/rebuilt engine or transmission wouldn't keep a 10 year or older car on the road.  Tech is just a distraction and source of obsolescence.  Besides, other than the tiny screen, a smartphone is imminently more useful than anything OEMs put into cars anymore as long as you at least have a Bluetooth headunit.

I always thought that computer control is primarily about drivetrain tuning and diagnostics. Everything else is bells and whistles.

[SEWIGuy]

You buy a new one, just like a computer.

Sure, cause everyone has $50,000 to spend every 4 years on a new model.

As I said above, if that's the business model the car manufacturers want to go with, all of a sudden transit will start to look real nice for a lot of people.

1. Most Americans own their cars for more than five years.

https://www.thezebra.com/resources/driving/average-length-of-car-ownership/

2. You can buy a used car at a lower price.

3. You can choose to lease instead.

Car companies know what they are doing. They know that they will push out the high margin new cars that people want, and the used car and lease market will take care of those who want to (or have to) spend less.

[vdeane]

You buy a new one, just like a computer.

Sure, cause everyone has $50,000 to spend every 4 years on a new model.

As I said above, if that's the business model the car manufacturers want to go with, all of a sudden transit will start to look real nice for a lot of people.

1. Most Americans own their cars for more than five years.

https://www.thezebra.com/resources/driving/average-length-of-car-ownership/

2. You can buy a used car at a lower price.

3. You can choose to lease instead.

Car companies know what they are doing. They know that they will push out the high margin new cars that people want, and the used car and lease market will take care of those who want to (or have to) spend less.

How does buying used or keeping a car longer change the software no longer being updated?  At best you're looking at functionality going away as it falls out of support (potentially with nagging from the car company), but it's also a security concern as security vulnerabilities go unaddressed.  There's a reason why many people who are familiar with technology won't keep devices that are connected to the internet and are no longer recieving updates.

And yes, car companies are aggressively pushing leases, but I hardly want to live in a world where all cars are a lease.  I could see leases evolving into a subscription model where you just pay a monthly rate for a car (not your specific car, just "a car") and they would come swap it out when it was time (no more trading in the old car, selecting a new one, and signing a new lease).  This might then evolve into the self-driving ridesharing fleet concept many were pushing before it because clear that self-driving cars were further away than pundits thought.

[kalvado]

You buy a new one, just like a computer.

Sure, cause everyone has $50,000 to spend every 4 years on a new model.

As I said above, if that's the business model the car manufacturers want to go with, all of a sudden transit will start to look real nice for a lot of people.

1. Most Americans own their cars for more than five years.

https://www.thezebra.com/resources/driving/average-length-of-car-ownership/

2. You can buy a used car at a lower price.

3. You can choose to lease instead.

Car companies know what they are doing. They know that they will push out the high margin new cars that people want, and the used car and lease market will take care of those who want to (or have to) spend less.

How does buying used or keeping a car longer change the software no longer being updated?  At best you're looking at functionality going away as it falls out of support (potentially with nagging from the car company), but it's also a security concern as security vulnerabilities go unaddressed.  There's a reason why many people who are familiar with technology won't keep devices that are connected to the internet and are no longer recieving updates.

And yes, car companies are aggressively pushing leases, but I hardly want to live in a world where all cars are a lease.  I could see leases evolving into a subscription model where you just pay a monthly rate for a car (not your specific car, just "a car") and they would come swap it out when it was time (no more trading in the old car, selecting a new one, and signing a new lease).  This might then evolve into the self-driving ridesharing fleet concept many were pushing before it because clear that self-driving cars were further away than pundits thought.

So far, connectivity loss and associated loss of over-the-air features, is the biggest example of car obsolescence- not the other way around Loosing remote start is bad, but not critical.
I doubt any car would be non-driveable without connectivity, there are enough remote areas where nothing works. Selling a car which wouldn't start after a hike in (insert your nearby national or big state park) may crash sales for that model. 
Major thing that I may see is apple-style pairing of car components for compatibility. Moving used transmission from another car may become interesting. I just hope they wouldn't go as far as digitally signing brake pads.

[formulanone]

You buy a new one, just like a computer.

Sure, cause everyone has $50,000 to spend every 4 years on a new model.

As I said above, if that's the business model the car manufacturers want to go with, all of a sudden transit will start to look real nice for a lot of people.

I'm pretty sure the business model they want to go with is making the car itself a subscription.

If I wanted to lease a car, I would have done so already.

I'm a buy it new and then drive it until it falls apart guy.

Also, no auto manufacturer has increased their warranty time-or-mileage coverage in about 15 years. That's a pretty good tell that they just want you to keep replacing them.

[wxfree]

This is something I don't know much about.  I know about automotives, but I stopped keeping up with advances years ago.  I love roads and driving and have less than no interest in whatever it is people are doing with those onboard computers.  I've never used or wanted to use a car to access the Internet or GPS service or connect with another device, so I ignore those features.  I just want a car to start, go faster, go slower, and steer.  The only computers I need are the ones that have been on there for 30 years, controlling the fuel injection and transmission.  Do I care if the thing that makes noises and lights I'd rather not have is updated?  I don't know enough to know whether I should.  Is there a reason I shouldn't pull whatever fuse or cut whatever wire connects it to the Internet in order to keep it from being hacked?  Will the engine not start if it can't look up instructions for how to activate the starter?  Will the wheels not steer because the computer doesn't know the difference between clockwise and counterclockwise and needs to ask Google?  I have the computer set to stop asking to pair with a device every time I get in, and then I just ignore it.  If I knew more about it, I'd probably be inclined to just pull the damned thing out because a hole in the dashboard is better than an annoyance and security risk.  Are people worried about the car not actually working anymore or are they just worried about not being able to connect the latest devices for purposes that have nothing to do with getting down the road?  Do I need to brush up on carburetor rebuilding principles, buy a dwell meter, and dig up my old timing light in order to avoid automotive cyberhell?

[GaryV]

Do you ever want to turn on your defroster or A/C? That's a feature on my screen now, not a button.

Personally I prefer to use Android Auto so I can access Google Maps or Waze instead of relying on the built-in map feature on the car. Because we found out that not only doesn't it have real-time traffic, it often doesn't have road updates or closures that happened months or even years ago. (An alternative would be to use the phone itself, like I did in my previous vehicles that didn't have all the fancy gadgets.)

[Rothman]

I prefer just using my cell phone in a mount to Android Auto.

[mgk920]

Forthcoming 'Right to repair' laws, too.  I have also heard the 'horror' stories of common consumable replacement items, like headlight and other light bulbs, having to pass an OEM 'chip match' test in order to work,  Just like with computer printers.  The next few years will be very interesting in that regard.

Mike

[vdeane]

So far, connectivity loss and associated loss of over-the-air features, is the biggest example of car obsolescence- not the other way around Loosing remote start is bad, but not critical.
I doubt any car would be non-driveable without connectivity, there are enough remote areas where nothing works. Selling a car which wouldn't start after a hike in (insert your nearby national or big state park) may crash sales for that model. 
Major thing that I may see is apple-style pairing of car components for compatibility. Moving used transmission from another car may become interesting. I just hope they wouldn't go as far as digitally signing brake pads.

I'm still waiting for the first cases of hacked cars to hit the news.  Honestly, given how much of a nightmare software security in cars is, I'm surprised it hasn't happened already.  Imagine ransomware on a car, or a car's computer being turned into part of a bot net.

[ZLoth]

Is there a reason I shouldn't pull whatever fuse or cut whatever wire connects it to the Internet in order to keep it from being hacked?

You do realize that cassette tape players and CD players are practically extinct on new cars now. That means that you will either be reliant on terrestrial radio, possibly SiriusXM, audio from a Bluetooth connection, maybe an Aux connection, or streaming through the Internet.

What is more worrying to me is how the automakers are trying to further monetarize some features of the car as part of a monthly subscription to the point of putting up walls and not allowing Android Auto/Carplay to run in favor of their own in-house apps.

[vdeane]

What is more worrying to me is how the automakers are trying to further monetarize some features of the car as part of a monthly subscription to the point of putting up walls and not allowing Android Auto/Carplay to run in favor of their own in-house apps.

And then there's the opposite, with Google trying to get even more data by building the car's OS and having the driver's Google account tied to everything rather than going through the phone.