NFL (2020-2024)

[thspfc]

I dunno, watching Aaron Rodgers fail consistently is quality entertainment to me.

I don't know about tonight though, the Jets are making me extremely nervous right now as this is a trap game for the Texans.  The Jets looks to have just as much talent as the Texans, especially on the defensive side.  What if Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams really break out tonight and has their best game ever since leaving Green Bay?  And as if that weren't bad enough, we just found out that Diggs is lost for the season, and still no Nico Collins.  Our running game can only take us so far before it becomes too predictable.  Last year the Jets clobbered the Texans without the talents of Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams; tonight they have both of them do deal with.

I'm not trying to sound like a pessimist, but we Texans fans are unique in that we never count our opponents until the final victory formation, just trying to anticipate all possible outcomes.

It's not a trap game, it's a tough game period and everyone knows it. Jets are 2.5-point favorites, mostly because the Texans are missing Collins and Diggs. You can afford to lose your top receiver; you can't afford to lose your top two in the middle of the season, pretty much no matter who your QB is. We saw the Eagles offense earlier this year look like the literal Panthers when they were missing their top two WRs.

Soon as I looked at the week 9 schedule a few days ago and saw this game, I thought of a Bills/Browns game in 2019 when the 2-6 Browns were favored over the 6-2 Bills. Browns won that game 19-16. I think it'll be a similar outcome tonight, after which there will be plenty of lizard-brained "are the Jets back???" talk.

[SEWIGuy]

What if Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams really break out tonight and has their best game ever since leaving Green Bay?

They could, but that would have been over three years ago for both players. Honestly neither one has been all that good and I doubt they will perform magic this week. Rodgers mobility and accuracy have been a problem all year and those don't get better with age.

I think the Jets could win but it would likely be an ugly, defensive game. Which often happens on a Thursday night.

[SEWIGuy]

One other thing about Rodgers. People seem to forget that he wasn't very good in 2022 - his last year in Green Bay. I think in retrospect it is easy to see that LaFleur's offense is what gave him his late career resurggence. But he didn't like that offense - too much motion and not enough quarterback freedom. And that's why his current offense looks so static, while Green Bay's is humming.

[webny99]

Soon as I looked at the week 9 schedule a few days ago and saw this game, I thought of a Bills/Browns game in 2019 when the 2-6 Browns were favored over the 6-2 Bills. Browns won that game 19-16. I think it'll be a similar outcome tonight, after which there will be plenty of lizard-brained "are the Jets back???" talk.

Nice throwback. This is a good example of the "evening the records" phenomenon/test. There's probably a better term for it, but essentially when two ~average teams enter a game with a wide gap in record, the team with the worse record tends to win, bringing their records more in line with each other, because there really wasn't as much separating them as their pregame records would suggest.

In this case, you could ask: What makes more sense?
(A) (Texans 7-2, Jets 2-7) OR
(B) (Texans 6-3, Jets 3-6)

... and there's a very strong argument that the latter makes more sense.


(I agree on your larger point that it's a tough game and the Jets could easily win, but the Bills should have also won that Browns game too. Losing to those Browns on a missed field goal that would have forced OT was probably the most bitterly disappointing game of the 2019 season for that upstart Bills team.)

[Great Lakes Roads]

Soon as I looked at the week 9 schedule a few days ago and saw this game, I thought of a Bills/Browns game in 2019 when the 2-6 Browns were favored over the 6-2 Bills. Browns won that game 19-16. I think it'll be a similar outcome tonight, after which there will be plenty of lizard-brained "are the Jets back???" talk.

Nice throwback. This is a good example of the "evening the records" phenomenon/test. There's probably a better term for it, but essentially when two ~average teams enter a game with a wide gap in record, the team with the worse record tends to win, bringing their records more in line with each other, because there really wasn't as much separating them as their pregame records would suggest.

In this case, you could ask: What makes more sense?
(A) (Texans 7-2, Jets 2-7) OR
(B) (Texans 6-3, Jets 3-6)

... and there's a very strong argument that the latter makes more sense.


(I agree on your larger point that it's a tough game and the Jets could easily win, but the Bills should have also won that Browns game too. Losing to those Browns on a missed field goal that would have forced OT was probably the most bitterly disappointing game of the 2019 season for that upstart Bills team.)

And the Jets won 21-13, improving their record to 3-6... that was a game with so many injuries on both sides.

[SEWIGuy]

The Texans offensive line is crap. And Stroud certainly hasn't taken that next step.

[Max Rockatansky]

The Texans only have a +1 point differential this year despite being 6-3.

[webny99]

The Texans only have a +1 point differential this year despite being 6-3.

You can thank the Vikings for that. All of their other games except the win over the Patriots have been decided by one score.

[thspfc]

The Texans only have a +1 point differential this year despite being 6-3.

You can thank the Vikings for that. All of their other games except the win over the Patriots have been decided by one score.

They had a -12 at 4-1 a few weeks ago. Would be surprised if that wasn't a record.

[jgb191]

The Texans offensive line is crap. And Stroud certainly hasn't taken that next step.

OL issues, injuries, and inexperience from the young stars are the reasons why making the Super Bowl this season would be expecting way too much from the Texans.  Need I remind again that our franchise is still the only one in NFL History has yet to even win a Divisional Round of the playoffs?  Let's focus on winning that first (before we even dream about the Super Bowl)!  All of the other 31 teams have won Divisional Playoff games multiple times, when will the Texans finally get one?

Right now I wondering if the Texans even have enough this season to give Baltimore or KC a challenge?

And my worst fears came true Thursday Night -- turns out that Aaron Rodgers STILL had enough magic left in him to lift the Jets against the Texans.  Both defenses seemed evenly skilled, but Aaron's offense performed well enough to outduel that of CJ's.  I guess its hard to beat experience.  Aaron Rodgers is certainly far more battle-tested than CJ Stroud is.

[ZLoth]

After today's loss, I'm wondering if the Sunday Night Football game on December 22nd of the Cowboys versus the Bucs will be swapped out for a more viable game.

[Big John]

After today's loss, I'm wondering if the Sunday Night Football game on December 22nd of the Cowboys versus the Bucs will be swapped out for a more viable game.

I could see a switch to PHI/WAS.

[ZLoth]

After today's loss, I'm wondering if the Sunday Night Football game on December 22nd of the Cowboys versus the Bucs will be swapped out for a more viable game.

I could see a switch to PHI/WAS.

Based upon the current number of losses (2 for both Philly and Washington), I would say that it would definitely be a more competitive team. Washington doesn't even get a bye until December, thus they are one game ahead of Philly. Plus, it would be a rematch from November 14th.

[SEWIGuy]

Cowboys draw eyeballs though.

[mgk920]

I'm ready to fork the Bears.

Mike

[Max Rockatansky]

They have certainly come back to reality.

[Great Lakes Roads]

Forked from my perspective...

AFC: NYJ, NE, MIA, CLE, CIN, TEN, JAC, LV
NFC: NYG, DAL, CAR, NO

Going to fork the Bears... I will make a separate post on my predictions for the divisional winners as well as what teams will be going to the playoffs/wildcard spots.

EDIT: Also going to fork the Colts.

[ZLoth]

Forked from my perspective...

AFC: NYJ, NE, MIA, CLE, CIN, TEN, JAC, LV
NFC: NYG, DAL, CAR, NO

Going to fork the Bears... I will make a separate post on my predictions for the divisional winners as well as what teams will be going to the playoffs/wildcard spots.

EDIT: Also going to fork the Colts.

As far as I'm concerned, the Buffalo Bills have a less than 1% chance of taking a wild card slot or even missing the playoffs. Only the New York Jets have won more games than the Buffalo Bills have lost in the AFC east.

[thspfc]

I might be a bit of a Lions hater, but I have to admit, the fact that they just beat a 6-2 Packers team by double digits at Lambeau, their historical house of horrors, and nobody outside of Wisconsin is surprised, reflects how good that team is.

I was at Colts/Vikings and it was a tough watch at times. Home crowd was not happy until the TD late in the 4th, but I left impressed with what the Vikings coaching staff has done, and with Darnold aside from two horrendous interceptions. Granted, "aside from two horrendous interceptions" is akin to asking Ms. Lincoln how the play went.

[1995hoo]

ESPN reporting the Saints have fired their coach.

[JayhawkCO]

ESPN reporting the Saints have fired their coach.

Was a crazy hire at the time anyway.

[webny99]

ESPN reporting the Saints have fired their coach.

Was a crazy hire at the time anyway.

Remember when the Saints had the highest-scoring offense through two weeks? LOL. I am glad I didn't overreact to that, now they look like probably my safest fork of all considering the team they just lost to.

A long overdue fork update (new in bold):
AFC:
Forked:
Patriots, Raiders, Steelers, Titans, Browns, Jaguars

NFC:
Forked:
Commanders, Panthers, Saints, Vikings, Giants


I'm fairly certain two of my NFC forks (Vikings and Commanders) will be incorrect. After adding the Giants, that leaves me with just three NFC forks, yet I can't think of any other logical candidates to add. This sounds crazy, but I think all 13 other teams have a decent shot.

Staying the course with this list for now. Cowboys, Bears, Seahawks, Jets, and Dolphins are on watch (the latter only because it would be in poor taste to fork them now... and they've looked better since Tua returned which I do think gives them a very slim path to a wild card)

[Henry]

I might be a bit of a Lions hater, but I have to admit, the fact that they just beat a 6-2 Packers team by double digits at Lambeau, their historical house of horrors, and nobody outside of Wisconsin is surprised, reflects how good that team is.

I also hate both teams, but I loved to see the one I hate the most lose. Lambeau has almost always been a tough place for the road team to win at, so I'm happy that the Lions got it done.

[JayhawkCO]

I'm a more conservative forker this year:

NE, LV, DEN, NYG

Adding CAR. Should have probably done them before the season, but the NFC South used to produce some surprises. But they looked like hot garbage.

Probably can add TEN and JAX now.

Also, still happy to take the MIN o/u 4.5 wins bet!!

Already forked: DEN, NE, LV, NYG, TEN, JAX.
Now forking: NO, DAL, NYJ, MIA

Tack on CLE. Too early to do anyone in the NFC West or North.

[SEWIGuy]

I might be a bit of a Lions hater, but I have to admit, the fact that they just beat a 6-2 Packers team by double digits at Lambeau, their historical house of horrors, and nobody outside of Wisconsin is surprised, reflects how good that team is.

I also hate both teams, but I loved to see the one I hate the most lose. Lambeau has almost always been a tough place for the road team to win at, so I'm happy that the Lions got it done.

No one inside of Wisconsin is really surprised by the result either. Lambeau lost its mystique long ago. (I'm a Packer fan.)