NFL (2020-2024)

[NWI_Irish96]

Maybe 98% in the history of the NFL, but certainly not 98% of active coaches. Going for it was the pretty obvious choice. It was 4th and inches, not 4th and 1. DET has an elite o-line and run game. The conversion rate of going for it was definitely higher than the conversion rate of a 39-yard field goal.

I'm probably more of an analytics truther than you are, but I have to disagree with your last sentence. NFL kickers this year on FGs from 30-39 yards are 94.5%. From 40-49, they're 75.7%, so right at 39 yards, it's probably something like 88%. 4th and 1 success rates average about 60% in today's NFL per https://medium.com/@dacr444/analyzing-4th-down-attempts-over-the-last-24-seasons-8c0f99c538cb.

It wasn't 88%, but probably closer to 70-75% considering the context of Detroit's offense, offensive scheme and coaching advantage, and the fact that it was shorter distance than your typical 4th & 1.

And again, I'm an analytics nerd, so if the numbers say to go for it, I'm going for it. Kicking a FG to go up 6 is a fool's errand most of the time, so I definitely agree with going for it here. I was just pointing out that I disagree with an aspect of that analysis.

The reason to go for it isn't because it's more likely that you convert the 1st down than the FG. The reason to go for it is:

60% success going for it = 100% chance of victory
40% failure going for it = 70% chance of victory
88% success kicking the FG = 85% chance of victory
12% failure kikcing the FG = 67% chance of victory

(Ballparking the numbers a little bit on the chance of victory.)

(.6 * 1) + (.4 * .7) = 88% chance of winning if you go for it
(.88 * .85) + (.12 * .67) = 83% chance of winning if you attempt a FG

I think the biggest takeaway is that both options were pretty good, so at that point it's a matter of how the coach feels about the situation.

When analytics provide a < 10% difference in the two options, that's where other factors should be considered. When that difference gets above 10%, it starts to become really questionable to go against the numbers.

[gonealookin]

It wasn't 88%, but probably closer to 70-75% considering the context of Detroit's offense, offensive scheme and coaching advantage, and the fact that it was shorter distance than your typical 4th & 1.

The funny thing about it was that for all of those alleged advantages you cite, none of them account for one of the offensive linemen choosing that particular moment to step on Goff as he pulled away from the center.

In college ball that play is dead because Goff's knee went down before he handed the ball off, so the ball goes over on downs.  Not the case in the NFL, but still, how often have you seen that cause the timing of the play to be thrown off so badly that the defense easily knocks the ball carrier backward, or even resulting in a lost fumble.

[Max Rockatansky]

As the resident Lions fan I can say that I had no issue going for it on 4th down.  Everyone is forgetting that the kick was no guarantee and it still would have been a tie game with a miss.  I rather the Lions do whatever they can to get away from the loser mentality that has been prevalent since 1957. 

That said, the defensive injuries are starting to have an apparent affect now.  I'm also still really concerned about Dan Campbell's ability to make half time adjustments and adapt to what the other team is doing.  Both were really apparent issues in the Chicago game and the defense was last night.

[JayhawkCO]

I think the biggest takeaway is that both options were pretty good, so at that point it's a matter of how the coach feels about the situation.

When analytics provide a < 10% difference in the two options, that's where other factors should be considered. When that difference gets above 10%, it starts to become really questionable to go against the numbers.

I would argue that a 5% difference in expected win value matters a whole lot in a billion dollar industry. Imagine if my Fortune 500 company didn't make a decision that would increase profit by 5%. The CEO would be hung in effigy.

[NWI_Irish96]

I think the biggest takeaway is that both options were pretty good, so at that point it's a matter of how the coach feels about the situation.

When analytics provide a < 10% difference in the two options, that's where other factors should be considered. When that difference gets above 10%, it starts to become really questionable to go against the numbers.

I would argue that a 5% difference in expected win value matters a whole lot in a billion dollar industry. Imagine if my Fortune 500 company didn't make a decision that would increase profit by 5%. The CEO would be hung in effigy.

Football metrics don't account for things like weather, wind, players who may not be 100%, etc. I don't know enough about the markets to know if there is an analogy there.

[JayhawkCO]

I think the biggest takeaway is that both options were pretty good, so at that point it's a matter of how the coach feels about the situation.

When analytics provide a < 10% difference in the two options, that's where other factors should be considered. When that difference gets above 10%, it starts to become really questionable to go against the numbers.

I would argue that a 5% difference in expected win value matters a whole lot in a billion dollar industry. Imagine if my Fortune 500 company didn't make a decision that would increase profit by 5%. The CEO would be hung in effigy.

Football metrics don't account for things like weather, wind, players who may not be 100%, etc. I don't know enough about the markets to know if there is an analogy there.

Understood that things "on paper" don't always match reality. But you can estimate the effects of some of those things too. Let's say the game was outside last night and the wind was really howling. You can take the same expected value formulae I posted above and adjust the kicking percentage. Sure, normally the kicker makes a 39 yard FG at 88%, but tonight, we're calling that a 75% chance, and then re-run the numbers. As expected, it would make it even more worthwhile to go for it.

[thspfc]

I would say about 98% of coaches in the history of the NFL would have looked at 4th and 1 at the opponent's 21 yard line, in a tie game with 43 seconds left, and kicked the field goal.

Maybe 98% in the history of the NFL, but certainly not 98% of active coaches. Going for it was the pretty obvious choice. It was 4th and inches, not 4th and 1. DET has an elite o-line and run game. The conversion rate of going for it was definitely higher than the conversion rate of a 39-yard field goal.

I'm probably more of an analytics truther than you are, but I have to disagree with your last sentence. NFL kickers this year on FGs from 30-39 yards are 94.5%. From 40-49, they're 75.7%, so right at 39 yards, it's probably something like 88%. 4th and 1 success rates average about 60% in today's NFL per https://medium.com/@dacr444/analyzing-4th-down-attempts-over-the-last-24-seasons-8c0f99c538cb.

I contest that 60% number.

1) the number I find most often on the internet for 4th and 1 is 65-66%.
2) again, it was 4th and inches. Less than half a yard.
3) the Lions have the best offensive line in the league and David Montgomery in the backfield. This is not poker. There is more to it than "what are the chances the next card is a diamond?"

The 4th and 2 conversion rate is allegedly about 57%, 8% lower than 4th and 1. You can't gloss over the difference between 3 feet (or 1 yard) and 1 foot (the distance they had to get). That alone takes the conversion rate for this particular play well over 70%. DET's offensive line and RBs probably add at least another 7-10% compared to league average, moving it over 80%.

[wanderer2575]

I was told there would be no math.

[JayhawkCO]

I would say about 98% of coaches in the history of the NFL would have looked at 4th and 1 at the opponent's 21 yard line, in a tie game with 43 seconds left, and kicked the field goal.

Maybe 98% in the history of the NFL, but certainly not 98% of active coaches. Going for it was the pretty obvious choice. It was 4th and inches, not 4th and 1. DET has an elite o-line and run game. The conversion rate of going for it was definitely higher than the conversion rate of a 39-yard field goal.

I'm probably more of an analytics truther than you are, but I have to disagree with your last sentence. NFL kickers this year on FGs from 30-39 yards are 94.5%. From 40-49, they're 75.7%, so right at 39 yards, it's probably something like 88%. 4th and 1 success rates average about 60% in today's NFL per https://medium.com/@dacr444/analyzing-4th-down-attempts-over-the-last-24-seasons-8c0f99c538cb.

I contest that 60% number.

1) the number I find most often on the internet for 4th and 1 is 65-66%.
2) again, it was 4th and inches. Less than half a yard.
3) the Lions have the best offensive line in the league and David Montgomery in the backfield. This is not poker. There is more to it than "what are the chances the next card is a diamond?"

The 4th and 2 conversion rate is allegedly about 57%, 8% lower than 4th and 1. You can't gloss over the difference between 3 feet (or 1 yard) and 1 foot (the distance they had to get). That alone takes the conversion rate for this particular play well over 70%. DET's offensive line and RBs probably add at least another 7-10% compared to league average, moving it over 80%.

OK, so call it 80%. The FG is 88%, which again, is not the point. You don't go for it because you're more likely to get the 1st vs. making the FG, which in this case is still inaccurate even at 80%. You go for it because going for it (successful or not) improves your chances of winning more than attempting a field goal (successful or not). That's all I'm saying.

[tigerwings]

"Kicking a FG to go up 6 is a fool's errand most of the time"

Cardinals did this late in the 4th on Sunday, and lost by 1.

[tigerwings]

As the resident Lions fan I can say that I had no issue going for it on 4th down.  Everyone is forgetting that the kick was no guarantee and it still would have been a tie game with a miss.  I rather the Lions do whatever they can to get away from the loser mentality that has been prevalent since 1957. 

That said, the defensive injuries are starting to have an apparent affect now.  I'm also still really concerned about Dan Campbell's ability to make half time adjustments and adapt to what the other team is doing.  Both were really apparent issues in the Chicago game and the defense was last night

Agree. After the Pack tied it, I said to myself "don't gave the ball back.

I've watched 50 years of mostly shitty Lions football. It took leaving Detroit for Denver to see a Super Bowl team.

[thspfc]

"Kicking a FG to go up 6 is a fool's errand most of the time"

Cardinals did this late in the 4th on Sunday, and lost by 1.

The way Olsen explained it on the broadcast was one of those things that's absurd on paper but makes so much sense in reality, because of the ways we humans behave.

[epzik8]

Why exactly did Kirk Cousins get booed in Minnesota today?

[SEWIGuy]

Why exactly did Kirk Cousins get booed in Minnesota today?

He left after not accomplishing much.

[Big John]

Who is currently on the clock for first pick in the draft?

Mike

Jaguars hold the tiebreaker at 2-10.

Jaguars won today, so the Raiders are now in line for the first pick.

[TheHighwayMan3561]

Who is currently on the clock for first pick in the draft?

Mike

Jaguars hold the tiebreaker at 2-10.

Jaguars won today, so the Raiders are now in line for the first pick.

And will probably pick a punter or something with it if they get it.

[Great Lakes Roads]

AFC
East- Buffalo Bills (CLINCHED PLAYOFF SPOT)
North- Pittsburgh Steelers
South- Houston Texans
West- Kansas City Chiefs (CLINCHED PLAYOFF SPOT)

NFC
East- Philadelphia Eagles (CLINCHED PLAYOFF SPOT)
North- Detroit Lions (CLINCHED PLAYOFF SPOT)
South- Tampa Buccaneers
West- TBD

AFC Wildcards- Baltimore Ravens, Los Angeles Chargers, Denver Broncos
NFC Wildcards- Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Washington Commanders

Week 14 update... the Lions from the NFC North and the Eagles from the NFC East clinched a playoff spot!
Anybody can clinch the NFC West division at this point...

Forked from my perspective...

AFC: NYJ, NE, MIA, CLE, CIN, TEN, JAC, LV, IND
NFC: NYG, DAL, CAR, NO, CHI, LAR, SF, ATL, ARI

[jgb191]

Deja Vu alert:  For the second consecutive week, the Chiefs won by the score of 19-17 in Arrowhead vs a division opponent.

The last four Chiefs victories were by a combined nine points.

Something tells me that pattern will continue to persist, their next four victories (finishing the regular season) will combine for a single-digit margin just as their last four.  They won their last two Super Bowls by a combined six points.

The Chiefs (and today the Eagles) just continues to drive the point home:  there is not that much of a talent disparity between the best and worst teams in the NFL....All 32 teams are immensely talented, seems like the culture (from coaches and executives) and mentality make most of the difference.  Even the Panthers have been a challenge to overcome even for the best teams.

[snowc]

Today's NFL meme of the day: Bills lose to the Rams by 2 points.

[ZLoth]

https://twitter.com/NFL_Scorigami/status/1865918787834302539

[webny99]

Something tells me that pattern will continue to persist, their next four victories (finishing the regular season) will combine for a single-digit margin just as their last four.  They won their last two Super Bowls by a combined six points.

That would not only be unprecedented in NFL history, it would cause a total nationwide meltdown.

[JayhawkCO]

Something tells me that pattern will continue to persist, their next four victories (finishing the regular season) will combine for a single-digit margin just as their last four.  They won their last two Super Bowls by a combined six points.

That would not only be unprecedented in NFL history, it would cause a total nationwide meltdown.

Not THAT unprecedented. The Vikings two years ago went 11-0 in one-score games in the regular season.

[thspfc]

My Super Bowl pick is an Eagles/Chiefs rematch

I feel confident in this pick because of the likely matchups this is the one that people don't want to see. And the one that people don't want to see is usually the one that ends up happening.

[webny99]

Something tells me that pattern will continue to persist, their next four victories (finishing the regular season) will combine for a single-digit margin just as their last four.  They won their last two Super Bowls by a combined six points.

That would not only be unprecedented in NFL history, it would cause a total nationwide meltdown.

Not THAT unprecedented. The Vikings two years ago went 11-0 in one-score games in the regular season

8-0 with a +18 point differential, averaging less than a field goal margin of victory *in eight consecutive weeks* , is an entirely different level than even the 2022 Vikings. The Vikings had a number of games they won by 7 or 8 sprinkled in, which are completely different than games won decided by 3 or less, not to mention three losses and three multi-score wins, also sprinkled in.

[Max Rockatansky]

The Chiefs look to me like they are just going through the motions of the regular season.  I imagine they'll probably hit the on switch when it comes to the playoffs like last year.