NFL (2020-2024)

[epzik8]

And the Patriots wasted no time in firing first-year coach Jerod Mayo, not even waiting until Black Monday.

Their FO definitely isn't messing around anymore

[webny99]

The Seahawks become the first 10-win team to miss the playoffs in the 17 game era. Somewhat surprising that it took 4 seasons, considering that in theory it's more likely to happen with more games.

It was somewhat common in the 12-game playoff era. A 17th game makes it more likely, but having 14 playoff teams also makes it *less* likely, so there's a canceling effect.

Now with 7 playoff teams per conference, half the conference has to hit 10 wins for this to happen. You'd generally expect half of the teams to finish above .500, but usually there's one or two 9-8 teams among them. This year's NFC had eight teams over .500 (exactly what you'd expect) but no 9-8 teams at all.

[thspfc]

My AFC bracket:

5) Chargers defeat 4) Texans
3) Ravens defeat 6) Steelers
2) Bills defeat 7) Broncos

3) Ravens defeat 2) Bills
1) Chiefs defeat 5) Chargers

1) Chiefs defeat 3) Ravens

The narrative writes itself in the AFC. Two teams that have been on the doorstep and are under enormous pressure to take down the dynasty, in a year where many people seem to think the Chiefs are weak.

The NFC is much tougher. Trying to go through every round, the only confident pick I can make is the Eagles to beat the Packers - and that becomes difficult if Hurts isn't cleared to go.

The NFC storylines are incredible. In the wild card we'll get . . .

- two week 1 rematches
- either the Rams/Lions/Stafford/Goff intertwining of fate AGAIN, or the Vikings against one of only two teams they lost to all year.

In the divisional we'll likely get

- MIN/DET part 3, or one of the above
- possibly another Bucs/Eagles matchup, which, weirdly, has some major recent history with Tampa winning in blowouts 3 of the last 4 times including twice in the playoffs
- possibly a Commanders/Eagles divisional showdown

And then maybe the Lions/Eagles showdown that I've been waiting for since about week 8.

I cannot wait for this postseason. 2021-22 was the last time I felt strongly that we were in for some absolute cinema.

[webny99]

The Lions have scored an impressive 533 points so far this season. They need just one touchdown tonight to crack the top 10 scoring offenses of all time. Surprisingly enough, they'd be the first team to do so in the 17-game era.

Two other teams also made the list of top scoring offenses this season. The 2024 Bills finished 16th all-time with 525 points scored, and the 2024 Ravens finished 18th all-time with 518 points scored.

[DenverBrian]

How about no divisions, top seven get in?

Maybe two divisions instead of four. AFC North and South; NFC East and and NFC West. The "division" winners get in, but it allows for five at-large seeds in each conference. You could still keep all legacy division rivalries.

[SEWIGuy]

How about no divisions, top seven get in?

Maybe two divisions instead of four. AFC North and South; NFC East and and NFC West. The "division" winners get in, but it allows for five at-large seeds in each conference. You could still keep all legacy division rivalries.

That wouldn't work either if you want to maintain two games per season against rivals.

[Max Rockatansky]

Never thought that would ever see the Lions get the one seed or win 15 games.  The defense picked the right time to overcome all these injuries. 

[TheHighwayMan3561]

I wish I'd never become an NFL fan. Or a sports fan in general. Every team I root for is an embarrassment.

[Max Rockatansky]

If the Lions can turn it around even with the Ford family still owning them there is hope for any franchise. 

[Great Lakes Roads]

AFC
#2 Bills vs. #7 Broncos
#3 Ravens vs. #6 Steelers
#4 Texans vs. #5 Chargers

NFC
#2 Eagles vs. #7 Packers
#3 Buccaneers vs. #6 Commanders
#4 Rams vs. #5 Vikings

Divisional
#1 Chiefs vs. #5 Chargers
#2 Bills vs. #3 Ravens

#1 Lions vs. #6 Commanders
#2 Eagles vs. #4 Rams

Conference
#1 Chiefs vs. #2 Bills
#1 Lions vs. #2 Eagles

Super Bowl
#1 Lions vs. #2 Bills

[Roadgeekteen]

Who is currently on the clock for first pick in the draft?

Mike

Jaguars hold the tiebreaker at 2-10.

Jaguars won today, so the Raiders are now in line for the first pick.

Raiders won. So it is now the Giants.

Giants won, so now four 3-win teams, Patriots now on track for the first pick.

Pats won, but still fired their coach.
Titans officially have the first pick, final pending any trades.

They may have fired the coach because they won.

[SEWIGuy]

Who is currently on the clock for first pick in the draft?

Mike

Jaguars hold the tiebreaker at 2-10.

Jaguars won today, so the Raiders are now in line for the first pick.

Raiders won. So it is now the Giants.

Giants won, so now four 3-win teams, Patriots now on track for the first pick.

Pats won, but still fired their coach.
Titans officially have the first pick, final pending any trades.

They may have fired the coach because they won.

That would be an odd thing to do.

And it was decided before the game anyway.

[thspfc]

5) Chargers defeat 4) Texans
3) Ravens defeat 6) Steelers
2) Bills defeat 7) Broncos

3) Ravens defeat 2) Bills
1) Chiefs defeat 5) Chargers

1) Chiefs defeat 3) Ravens

5) Vikings defeat 4) Rams
3) Buccaneers defeat 6) Commanders
2) Eagles defeat 7) Packers

1) Lions defeat 5) Vikings
2) Eagles defeat 3) Buccaneers

2) Eagles defeat 1) Lions

Super Bowl: Eagles defeat Chiefs

[SEWIGuy]

It turns out that the biggest paper-tiger out there is the Packers. They played only seven games against teams that made the playoffs this year, going 2-5. Only wins were at home v. Houston and at the Rams. Otherwise they feasted on non-playoff teams, going 9-1 largely against the NFC West and AFC South.

Wait until next year when they have nine games against this year's playoff teams, not including games against Joe Burrow and the Bengals and at the Cowboys. I would not be surprised to see them around or below .500 and out of the playoffs next year.

[JayhawkCO]

AFC
#2 Bills vs. #7 Broncos
#3 Ravens vs. #6 Steelers
#4 Texans vs. #5 Chargers

NFC
#2 Eagles vs. #7 Packers
#3 Buccaneers vs. #6 Commanders
#4 Rams vs. #5 Vikings

Divisional
#1 Chiefs vs. #5 Chargers
#2 Bills vs. #3 Ravens

#1 Lions vs. #6 Commanders
#2 Eagles vs. #4 Rams

Conference
#1 Chiefs vs. #2 Bills
#1 Lions vs. #4 Rams

Super Bowl
#1 Chiefs vs. #1 Lions

[mgk920]

Titans officially have the first pick, final pending any trades.

No trades of first round picks (yet), but I'm starting to seriously wonder if teams will be getting leery of taking QBs early in the first round.

Mike

[SEWIGuy]

Titans officially have the first pick, final pending any trades.

No trades of first round picks (yet), but I'm starting to seriously wonder if teams will be getting leery of taking QBs early in the first round.

Mike

Why? Last year was a major success for QB when the following picks were quarterbacks.

1. Caleb Williams - showed a lot of flashes despite the Bears being a sh*tshow.
2. Jayden Daniels - likely rookie of the year with the Commanders heading to the playoffs
3. Drake Maye - the Patriots were a disaster but he played very well.
8. Michael Penix, Jr. - took over with a couple games to go from Kirk Counsins and played very well
10. JJ McCarthy - injured in pre-season
12. Bo Nix - after a rough start, lead the Broncos to their first post-season in over a decade

Not a bust among them. Five franchises feel great about the position right now. The only question is McCarthy because of his injury.

[Max Rockatansky]

I do wonder how the Vikings are going to handle their QB situation.  Sam Darnold looked pretty damn good all year until last night. 

[JayhawkCO]

I do wonder how the Vikings are going to handle their QB situation.  Sam Darnold looked pretty damn good all year until last night. 

My hunch is we (they) let him go. He's going to be earning a bunch of money next year due to his above average play this year. But teams only start to hit their window to win a Super Bowl when they have a QB on a rookie contract, and we didn't spend a 1st rounder on JJ to not play him. We also signed Daniel Jones pro-actively to be our backup (in my opinion).

If we happen to win (or maybe even just make) the Super Bowl, I might change my mind.

[SEWIGuy]

I do wonder how the Vikings are going to handle their QB situation.  Sam Darnold looked pretty damn good all year until last night. 

My hunch is we (they) let him go. He's going to be earning a bunch of money next year due to his above average play this year. But teams only start to hit their window to win a Super Bowl when they have a QB on a rookie contract, and we didn't spend a 1st rounder on JJ to not play him. We also signed Daniel Jones pro-actively to be our backup (in my opinion).

If we happen to win (or maybe even just make) the Super Bowl, I might change my mind.

They may just franchise him to keep him around for one more year. They have the cap space and then they don't get mixed up in a long-term deal. I think Jones is a free agent after this year as well.

[JayhawkCO]

I do wonder how the Vikings are going to handle their QB situation.  Sam Darnold looked pretty damn good all year until last night. 

My hunch is we (they) let him go. He's going to be earning a bunch of money next year due to his above average play this year. But teams only start to hit their window to win a Super Bowl when they have a QB on a rookie contract, and we didn't spend a 1st rounder on JJ to not play him. We also signed Daniel Jones pro-actively to be our backup (in my opinion).

If we happen to win (or maybe even just make) the Super Bowl, I might change my mind.

They may just franchise him to keep him around for one more year. They have the cap space and then they don't get mixed up in a long-term deal. I think Jones is a free agent after this year as well.

Definitely a possibility as well. I think I read his cap hit as the franchise player would be north of $40 million.

[thspfc]

2 days ago I would've said they have to offer Darnold at least 3 years at ~$45m/year. Now I think the franchise tag is the most commitment they'd be comfortable making. How quickly things change in the NFL.

[thspfc]

Antonio Pierce is still an NFL head coach . . . uhh . . . hello Raiders?

[NWI_Irish96]

Wild Card Round:

PHI over GB, TB over WAS, MIN over LAR
BUF over DEN, BAL over PIT, LAC over HOU

Divisional Round:

DET over MIN, PHI over TB
KC over LAC, BUF over BAL

Championships:

PHI over DET, BUF over KC

Super Bowl:

BUF over PHI

[epzik8]

Super Bowl:

BUF over PHI

I'm still so desperate for a Bills breakthrough in the big game, and it'd be nice for it to be against Philly.