The quest for the most average American

[noelbotevera]

A thought experiment that came to my mind:

Since the United States population is over 300 million, it easily satisfies the law of large numbers* (n = 330 million or whatever). In theory, you could take every American's attribute -- race, gender/sex, income, height, hair color, etc. -- and plot it as a normal distribution. Take the exact middle of that, for each descriptor, and boom -- you've created the most average person.

(By extension, you could also use this to determine where the most average person is likely to live, and maybe the most average city or whatever.)

Of course, searching Google returns plenty of stories where people tried to do this...except they tried interviewing people. You're not gonna get a large enough sample size that way.

Ignoring the politics, WaPo attempted this using statistics, though they didn't determine where the most average person would live (they assumed Frisco, Texas). A naive answer is to assume that the average person lives in southern Missouri, where the mean population center is, but people don't live evenly throughout the country, and most commonly live in urban areas.

So...is this a doable task? Nope!

-We're assuming the Census Bureau never suffers from sampling bias. I regret to inform you that this is a load of bollocks.
-Assuming it is, Census Bureau data is not granular enough to determine occupation; you'll probably get an industry, but not a definitive answer like "teacher" or "CPA".
-The same can be said about education; the best you'll get is "completed some college", but that could range from spending 1 day on campus to dropping out at the last semester.
-Financial data is corrupted by outliers.

And finally, the dagger: none of these variables are independent. While hair color won't determine if you're a firefighter or a software engineer, there are correlations between income, occupation, education, and so on.

However, a fun possibility is to consider where the most average person would live in the US, and that would be more doable.

*Mathematicians on this forum, yes this is probably a bad use of the theory here. However, nobody knows why large sample sizes still converge to normal distributions, so...roll with it. I got a C in Stats anyways, this isn't my forte.

[wxfree]

This is a fascinating idea, and I'd love to know who the average American is.  I remember reading in the newspaper about 25 or 30 years ago that Wichita Falls was the most average city.  While "most average" may not seem like a noble identifier, it makes an area interesting for things like marketing research.

However, I don't know whether the importance we put on averages is justified.  If we determine the average telephone number in a city, the average ZIP code in a state, or the average channel in a television package, have we learned anything?  I would love for the answer to be a "yes," because I love to learn things, but I have doubts.  If we find out that the average American likes your product, how many such people are there?  What if it's only one?

I'm imagining an average person as a mix of so many different characteristics that the average loses meaning and a person very nearly average (next to that person in the distribution of averageness) is completely different in character despite being close to the middle overall, with a vastly different set of characteristics still centering close to the average.  Imagine one person with values 40 and 50, averaging to 45, and then another person with values 0 and 90, still averaging to 45, but a very different person.  I don't think that's the most accurate way to describe it, but it's simple.  What does it mean to use a thousand-dimension average rather than a one dimension average on a number line, or a two dimension average on a graph?  I'd love if someone found meaning in it, but it seems like a challenge.

As interesting as it would be to know the average person, I like the idea of an average city more.  I suspect that by losing the extreme specificity of an individual more meaning can be found.  Since we don't have people who are 50.1 percent female or 14.8 percent redheaded or 2.1 percent law enforcement (or whatever those numbers are), it may be more useful to identify communities where those characteristics are distributed at the average rate and large enough for those averages to matter.

[Rothman]

Using a mean/average of an American citizen would be a totally inappropriate summary statistic of the data.

[mgk920]

I agree, just what is an 'Average (US)American'?   That is why the USA is a federal republic of semi-sovereign states, and has such a thing as an Electoral College.  In fact, before the Civil War. the term was 'The United States are', while after the Civil War it became 'The United States is'.

Mike

[SEWIGuy]

I agree, just what is an 'Average (US)American'?   That is why the USA is a federal republic of semi-sovereign states, and has such a thing as an Electoral College.  In fact, before the Civil War. the term was 'The United States are', while after the Civil War it became 'The United States is'.

The United States of America is a thing. So yes, there can be an "average American."

Anyway, the average American is probably a GenX white woman, who lives in an urban metropolitan area (likely close to where she grew up), works in heath care or education, is married and has one or two children. She probably went to church at one point, but doesn't any longer. Likely has a bachelor's degree, or has made significant progress toward one.

Anyway, the next time you check in at your doctor's office, if the woman there is a fortyish year old white woman, she is probably as close to the average as you are going to get.

[noelbotevera]

I agree, just what is an 'Average (US)American'?   That is why the USA is a federal republic of semi-sovereign states, and has such a thing as an Electoral College.  In fact, before the Civil War. the term was 'The United States are', while after the Civil War it became 'The United States is'.

Mike

I mean, by that logic then what's an average German? After all, "Germany" didn't exist until 1871 and there's a bunch of smaller states like Bohemia, Prussia, Bavaria all with their unique cultures.

The truth is, there is an average American, which in 1776 agreed that (a.) being part of Britain was a bad idea and (b.) lived in the 13 Colonies, each of which had a unique culture.

As interesting as it would be to know the average person, I like the idea of an average city more.  I suspect that by losing the extreme specificity of an individual more meaning can be found.  Since we don't have people who are 50.1 percent female or 14.8 percent redheaded or 2.1 percent law enforcement (or whatever those numbers are), it may be more useful to identify communities where those characteristics are distributed at the average rate and large enough for those averages to matter.

As Rothman alluded to, I knew this was a losing effort. But, finding an average city is more doable. There's more objective and independent metrics, and adding one more person to a city isn't likely to wreck any kind of analysis you make.

I theorize such a city would have a large finance and university presence. Think of Cincinnati, Ohio or Raleigh, North Carolina.

[mgk920]

Yea, the local cultures of Wisconsin are VERY DIFFERENT from the local cultures of Illinois, New York, Florida, Louisiana, Hawaii, etc.  It is what makes the USA what it is.  There is no 'average' there.

Mike

[SEWIGuy]

Yea, the local cultures of Wisconsin are VERY DIFFERENT from the local cultures of Illinois, New York, Florida, Louisiana, Hawaii, etc.  It is what makes the USA what it is.  There is no 'average' there.

Mike

You should travel abroad more. We aren't that much different than people from different regions of other countries.

And as someone who has lived throughout the midwest, the culture of Wisconsin isn't "VERY DIFFERENT" than the local culture of Illinois. They are two, midwestern states.

[Scott5114]

Yea, the local cultures of Wisconsin are VERY DIFFERENT from the local cultures of Illinois, New York, Florida, Louisiana, Hawaii, etc.  It is what makes the USA what it is.  There is no 'average' there.

Mike

You should travel abroad more. We aren't that much different than people from different regions of other countries.

And as someone who has lived throughout the midwest, the culture of Wisconsin isn't "VERY DIFFERENT" than the local culture of Illinois. They are two, midwestern states.

I think the canonical response to this post would involve long, aggressive honking, followed by arguing about the elevation differences between the two.

[kalvado]

An average person should have one boob and one ball.

[Road Hog]

Point of order: The concept of Germany existed long before Napoleon's victory over the Holy Roman Empire in 1802. After Napoleon's defeat, (snip history) the Prussians effectively annexed all the remaining tiny kingdoms, principalities and margravates and made it one state in 1871, mostly voluntarily. That union created what is now the modern nation of Germany (Prussia adopted the name as its own). The boundaries of course were changed by two world wars.

[vdeane]

That union created what is now the modern nation of Germany (Prussia adopted the name as its own).

Not that the name change was accepted universally.  My Great-Grandfather was quite insistent that he was Prussian, not German.

[kphoger]

An average person should have one boob and one ball.

that's just mean