Grand Parkway to Real Estate and Life Issues

[Max Rockatansky]

People have to be hooking up in the first place to have unintended pregnancies ... There is a lot of celibacy going around, whether it's deliberately self-imposed or just incidental.

People have to look up from their phones once in a while to hook up. 

I'm honestly surprised that I didn't end up with at least one kid.  From about the age of 23 I was almost always in some sort of relationship, and I rarely stuck to using condoms once things turned serious.   One woman I was dating for about three years got noticeable indications of being pregnant but didn't make it out of the first trimester before having a miscarriage. 

Then again, is this hobby really the best place to look for an indication on how much the average adult is having unprotected intercourse nowadays? 

[kphoger]

Then again, is this hobby really the best place to look for an indication on how much the average adult _____?

Fill in the blank.  The answer is no.

[Bobby5280]

Then again, is this hobby really the best place to look for an indication on how much the average adult is having unprotected intercourse nowadays?

I think rates of teen pregnancy in the U.S. is a good barometer. Teens generally don't have the same ease of access to contraceptives as adults. Yet they're horny as hell (well, at least the boys are anyway). Teen pregnancy rates today are less than 1/3 of the rates in 1990. The downward trend has accelerated since 2010.

Births per 1000 females, aged 18-19 was 94.0 in 1990. That rate was 27.3 in 2021.
For girls ages 15-19, the rate was 61.8 in 1990. In 2021 the rate was 14.4.
For girls ages 15-17, the rate was 38.6 in 1990. In 2021 the rate was 5.8.

Rates of virginity have sharply increased in the Gen-Z group, as has "sexlessness" (not having sex in a 12-month or longer time span).

[Max Rockatansky]

Then again, is this hobby really the best place to look for an indication on how much the average adult is having unprotected intercourse nowadays?

I think rates of teen pregnancy in the U.S. is a good barometer. Teens generally don't have the same ease of access to contraceptives as adults. Yet they're horny as hell (well, at least the boys are anyway). Teen pregnancy rates today are less than 1/3 of the rates in 1990. The downward trend has accelerated since 2010.

Births per 1000 females, aged 18-19 was 94.0 in 1990. That rate was 27.3 in 2021.
For girls ages 15-19, the rate was 61.8 in 1990. In 2021 the rate was 14.4.
For girls ages 15-17, the rate was 38.6 in 1990. In 2021 the rate was 5.8.

Rates of virginity have sharply increased in the Gen-Z group, as has "sexlessness" (not having sex in a 12-month or longer time span).

Question, why does this matter to you so much?  Most parents would probably say that teens not having kids when they are of high school age is probably a good thing.  Having a child during the teen years or early adulthood in modern American is pretty much a guaranteed way to ruin your life financially. 

[NE2]

Found the Matt Gaetz.

[Rothman]

Then again, is this hobby really the best place to look for an indication on how much the average adult is having unprotected intercourse nowadays?

I think rates of teen pregnancy in the U.S. is a good barometer.

Wut.  No...No, it is not.  Teens could finally be smartening up when it comes to preventing pregnancies.

Still, if we make it easier to care for and raise children and also better incentivize the production of babies, there will be more babies.

[kalvado]

Then again, is this hobby really the best place to look for an indication on how much the average adult is having unprotected intercourse nowadays?

I think rates of teen pregnancy in the U.S. is a good barometer. Teens generally don't have the same ease of access to contraceptives as adults. Yet they're horny as hell (well, at least the boys are anyway). Teen pregnancy rates today are less than 1/3 of the rates in 1990. The downward trend has accelerated since 2010.

Births per 1000 females, aged 18-19 was 94.0 in 1990. That rate was 27.3 in 2021.
For girls ages 15-19, the rate was 61.8 in 1990. In 2021 the rate was 14.4.
For girls ages 15-17, the rate was 38.6 in 1990. In 2021 the rate was 5.8.

Rates of virginity have sharply increased in the Gen-Z group, as has "sexlessness" (not having sex in a 12-month or longer time span).

Now same thing for 20-25 and 25-30  groups

[kphoger]

Still, if we make it easier to care for and raise children and also better incentivize the production of babies, there will be more babies.

Residents with babies should get to use the Parkway without paying a toll.  There, back on topic!

[Bobby5280]

Question, why does this matter to you so much?

When the consequences of this demographic downturn finally hit I, and so many other people who are reaching retirement age in the next 15-20 years, may be affected by it pretty badly.

We're going to have too small of a working age tax base to fund programs like Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. The lopsided imbalance of too many retired age people and not enough working age people is going to cause all kinds of problems. The notion of retirement may become a thing of the past for many Americans. They'll have to work til they die, or get medically incapacitated shortly before they die.

I'll probably feel a bit of schadenfreude at one of the problems: people trying to downsize out of their pricey McMansions in the 2030's and 2040's and find a severe shortage of buyers. They'll be stuck. Good. They're the same assholes who showed up at city council meetings to make them vote down permits for multi-unit housing or anything deemed "affordable." They did all they could to put a floor under high housing prices to protect their investment. In 15-20 years those folks will see most of that equity evaporate due to a glut of unsold homes on the market. The Japanese coined a term "Akiya" for vacant homes (mostly in rural areas). Japan has over 9 million of those. They're abandoned homes no one wants to claim. We may see a lot of that problem take hold here.

I'm more scared about the prospect of our military not having shit for manpower in 20 years. None of the branches of our military are hitting recruiting targets now. The Army has lowered its academic and physical fitness standards. An increasingly "multi-polar" geo-political world will be at greater risk for war. I like scaring bigots about how much of the world's youth lives in Africa and that the continent could either turn into a economic powerhouse or military powder keg. World War III could be started due to Africa.

Still, if we make it easier to care for and raise children and also better incentivize the production of babies, there will be more babies.

European countries have been trying all sorts of steps. None of them seem to be reversing the trends of their demographic downturns. At best, they're only slowing the drop.

[Max Rockatansky]

Take care of insulating yourself then if you are so worried about your retirement years.  I've spent an entire career and most of my adult life setting up the financial pieces that I have lined up now.  Really all that is left for me is to let the next decade play out with staying on track with maximum pension vestment and finishing paying off the mortgage.  I can't control what others haven't done to prepare themselves, so I don't see a point in being concerned.
 

[kalvado]

Question, why does this matter to you so much?

When the consequences of this demographic downturn finally hit I, and so many other people who are reaching retirement age in the next 15-20 years, may be affected by it pretty badly.

We're going to have too small of a working age tax base to fund programs like Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. The lopsided imbalance of too many retired age people and not enough working age people is going to cause all kinds of problems. The notion of retirement may become a thing of the past for many Americans. They'll have to work til they die, or get medically incapacitated shortly before they die.

I'll probably feel a bit of schadenfreude at one of the problems: people trying to downsize out of their pricey McMansions in the 2030's and 2040's and find a severe shortage of buyers. They'll be stuck. Good. They're the same assholes who showed up at city council meetings to make them vote down permits for multi-unit housing or anything deemed "affordable." They did all they could to put a floor under high housing prices to protect their investment. In 15-20 years those folks will see most of that equity evaporate due to a glut of unsold homes on the market. The Japanese coined a term "Akiya" for vacant homes (mostly in rural areas). Japan has over 9 million of those. They're abandoned homes no one wants to claim. We may see a lot of that problem take hold here.

I'm more scared about the prospect of our military not having shit for manpower in 20 years. None of the branches of our military are hitting recruiting targets now. The Army has lowered its academic and physical fitness standards. An increasingly "multi-polar" geo-political world will be at greater risk for war. I like scaring bigots about how much of the world's youth lives in Africa and that the continent could either turn into a economic powerhouse or military powder keg. World War III could be started due to Africa.

Still, if we make it easier to care for and raise children and also better incentivize the production of babies, there will be more babies.

European countries have been trying all sorts of steps. None of them seem to be reversing the trends of their demographic downturns. At best, they're only slowing the drop.

Japan is pretty deep in it as we speak.

And there is a simple metric - workforce participation rate, which can translate into how many "dependents" a working adult has. Right now US is at ~62%, for 0.61 "dependent" per worker. Common wisdom would be that if participation drops, remaining workers would have to work harder for a smaller reward to keep things going. Automation may (and does) change that, though.

And.. US has a demographic reserve. 12 years of school and 30% of college enrollment may be cut, so people start working earlier. Increase of retirement age is another knob which is being turned.

[kalvado]

Take care of insulating yourself then if you are so worried about your retirement years.  I've spent an entire career and most of my adult life setting up the financial pieces that I have lined up now.  Really all that is left for me is to let the next decade play out with staying on track with maximum pension vestment and finishing paying off the mortgage.  I can't control what others haven't done to prepare themselves, so I don't see a point in being concerned.
 

Financial cushion may be great, but it's only a part of the story. Good luck with your green bills when there is noone to change your diaper and move you to a wheelchair. Or bring and cook your food. 

[Max Rockatansky]

Take care of insulating yourself then if you are so worried about your retirement years.  I've spent an entire career and most of my adult life setting up the financial pieces that I have lined up now.  Really all that is left for me is to let the next decade play out with staying on track with maximum pension vestment and finishing paying off the mortgage.  I can't control what others haven't done to prepare themselves, so I don't see a point in being concerned.
 

Financial cushion may be great, but it's only a part of the story. Good luck with your green bills when there is noone to change your diaper and move you to a wheelchair. Or bring and cook your food. 

Ah, you assume that I have much incentive to live to point where those are actual problems.  After seeing how both my parents slowed were consumed by disease I can assure you that I have no desire to have the same happen to me.   What they both went through wasn't life, or at least not what it should have been.

As an aside, my wife's grandmother recently passed away.  She had eight sons and seven them were fairly local to where she lived.  More or less, it was just the eldest son (my father in-law) and a paid caretaker who took care of her day-to-day needs.  My father-in-law is partially retired which is the only reason he was able to be so readily available.

[ElishaGOtis]

[Max Rockatansky]

Which part?  The statistics about childbirth or me not being all that enthusiastic about it potentially having a really negative end of life/retirement years' experience?

Then again, I suppose being stuck in your expensive toll island home would give one time to ponder some of life's biggest questions.

[Rothman]

Question, why does this matter to you so much?

When the consequences of this demographic downturn finally hit I, and so many other people who are reaching retirement age in the next 15-20 years, may be affected by it pretty badly.

We're going to have too small of a working age tax base to fund programs like Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. The lopsided imbalance of too many retired age people and not enough working age people is going to cause all kinds of problems. The notion of retirement may become a thing of the past for many Americans. They'll have to work til they die, or get medically incapacitated shortly before they die.

I'll probably feel a bit of schadenfreude at one of the problems: people trying to downsize out of their pricey McMansions in the 2030's and 2040's and find a severe shortage of buyers. They'll be stuck. Good. They're the same assholes who showed up at city council meetings to make them vote down permits for multi-unit housing or anything deemed "affordable." They did all they could to put a floor under high housing prices to protect their investment. In 15-20 years those folks will see most of that equity evaporate due to a glut of unsold homes on the market. The Japanese coined a term "Akiya" for vacant homes (mostly in rural areas). Japan has over 9 million of those. They're abandoned homes no one wants to claim. We may see a lot of that problem take hold here.

I'm more scared about the prospect of our military not having shit for manpower in 20 years. None of the branches of our military are hitting recruiting targets now. The Army has lowered its academic and physical fitness standards. An increasingly "multi-polar" geo-political world will be at greater risk for war. I like scaring bigots about how much of the world's youth lives in Africa and that the continent could either turn into a economic powerhouse or military powder keg. World War III could be started due to Africa.

Still, if we make it easier to care for and raise children and also better incentivize the production of babies, there will be more babies.

European countries have been trying all sorts of steps. None of them seem to be reversing the trends of their demographic downturns. At best, they're only slowing the drop.

Meh, from what I've heard, their efforts have been pretty weak and little more than lip service and ineffective little handouts.

[kphoger]

We're going to have too small of a working age tax base to fund programs like Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. The lopsided imbalance of too many retired age people and not enough working age people is going to cause all kinds of problems. The notion of retirement may become a thing of the past for many Americans. They'll have to work til they die, or get medically incapacitated shortly before they die.

Or they'll just moderately increase taxes or moderately decrease payouts and life will go on.  I'm no economist, but I don't expect the entire system to just completely break.

[Max Rockatansky]

We're going to have too small of a working age tax base to fund programs like Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. The lopsided imbalance of too many retired age people and not enough working age people is going to cause all kinds of problems. The notion of retirement may become a thing of the past for many Americans. They'll have to work til they die, or get medically incapacitated shortly before they die.

Or they'll just moderately increase taxes or moderately decrease payouts and life will go on.  I'm no economist, but I don't expect the entire system to just completely break.

Internet people have been predicting the collapse of Social Security since I was in high school.  I often wonder if it is vindicating constantly predicting doom and gloom so long as you ultimately get one outcome right.   

[74/171FAN]

Yeah I am unsure what to even name this if I split it.   

[Max Rockatansky]

Yeah I am unsure what to even name this if I split it.   

"Wonderings of a toll island neighborhood"

[Rothman]

Yeah I am unsure what to even name this if I split it.   

"Make babies" -- Gus Portokalos

[wxfree]

On the effect of toll island neighborhoods on birthrates, with emphasis on whether such neighborhoods may impact working population and tax revenues on regional and larger scales

[Max Rockatansky]

On the effect of toll island neighborhoods on birthrates, with emphasis on whether such neighborhoods may impact working population and tax revenues on regional and larger scales

I can envision someone living at a toll island as being the instigating reason a for break up.

[kphoger]

Yeah I am unsure what to even name this if I split it.

On the effect of toll island neighborhoods on birthrates, with emphasis on whether such neighborhoods may impact working population and tax revenues on regional and larger scales

It does have a nice ring to it.  But what would be the other thread's name?

[GaryV]

On the effect of toll island neighborhoods on birthrates, with emphasis on whether such neighborhoods may impact working population and tax revenues on regional and larger scales

Channeling the ghost of Jonathan Swift?