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Author Topic: Tropical cyclone tracking thread  (Read 74530 times)

Pete from Boston

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #100 on: January 13, 2016, 04:09:11 PM »


Again, why do we need to name subtropical systems?

There's no need to take it personally.
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CNGL-Leudimin

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #101 on: January 14, 2016, 09:45:07 AM »

Again, why do we need to name subtropical systems?

The same I say. That is why my list of storms of 2007 starts with Barry.

Edit: Alex has transitioned from subtropical storm to hurricane!!! Now that is crazy. The Eastern Pacific (I count EPAC and CPAC together) also got an early hurricane, Pali. Now it's almost dissipated.
« Last Edit: January 14, 2016, 09:57:16 AM by CNGL-Leudimin »
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golden eagle

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #102 on: January 16, 2016, 09:11:43 PM »

Why did the NHC use Alex as a name, rather than a list of names from the 2015 season?
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Thing 342

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #103 on: January 16, 2016, 10:00:19 PM »

Why did the NHC use Alex as a name, rather than a list of names from the 2015 season?
Because it's 2016.

Nexus 6P

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #104 on: January 16, 2016, 11:05:16 PM »

So, when the season cranks back up this summer, they'll start with the B name?
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Thing 342

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #105 on: January 16, 2016, 11:13:02 PM »

So, when the season cranks back up this summer, they'll start with the B name?
Yes. All storms forming within a certain year use the names from that year's list.

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CNGL-Leudimin

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #106 on: January 17, 2016, 08:06:35 AM »

Why did the NHC use Alex as a name, rather than a list of names from the 2015 season?

Did you mean hurricane Alex should have been hurricane Larry instead? Even though we are off season*, lists are used in a calendar year. I would have liked how Meteo-France (or rather, Mauritius or Madagascar) would have named a tropical storm in the SW Indian had it formed in July or August, as back then they didn't have announced the current list.

* Off-season in the Atlantic and EPAC, as we are on the Southern Hemisphere season. In fact I'm currently tracking cyclone Victor in the South Pacific, which has stalled after attaining Category 1 status.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #107 on: January 17, 2016, 09:18:05 AM »

Why did the NHC use Alex as a name, rather than a list of names from the 2015 season?

Did you mean hurricane Alex should have been hurricane Larry instead? Even though we are off season*, lists are used in a calendar year. I would have liked how Meteo-France (or rather, Mauritius or Madagascar) would have named a tropical storm in the SW Indian had it formed in July or August, as back then they didn't have announced the current list.

* Off-season in the Atlantic and EPAC, as we are on the Southern Hemisphere season. In fact I'm currently tracking cyclone Victor in the South Pacific, which has stalled after attaining Category 1 status.

The only thing close to Victor right now is the Cook Islands. 
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #108 on: February 12, 2016, 02:40:04 PM »

Has anyone seen the Tropical Cyclone Report for 'hypercane' Patricia (Castilian Spanish pronounciation: [paˈtɾiθia])? Yes, that crazy thing that churned off the Mexican Pacific coast for a few days back in October. It seems we don't need that unreliable reading from typhoon Nancy anymore... Also it got damn close to 'Tip' the lowest pressure on record set by typhoon Tip.

As for current news, there is a rapid intensification in progress somewhere. Just ask for Mr. Winston :sombrero:.
« Last Edit: February 12, 2016, 02:45:43 PM by CNGL-Leudimin »
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #109 on: February 19, 2016, 05:50:26 PM »

So we have now a Category 5 cyclone. What a crazy track Cyclone Winston has taken, and now it's bearing on Fiji islands with up to 165 mph (1 min)/145 mph (10 min) sustained winds. It has already started to strike the islands...
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #110 on: February 25, 2016, 05:09:51 PM »

According to the Weather Channel, Winston had 185 mph winds when it made landfall in Fiji.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #111 on: April 27, 2016, 01:55:13 PM »

As the Southern hemisphere season ends with a bang (Cyclone Fantala, a late season category 5 that went back and forth and dissipated because of that), we know the retired names from Atlantic and Eastern Pacific lists. From the Atlantic list fall Erika and Joaquin, and from the Eastern Pacific one the obvious falls, Patricia. You may be shocked by Erika being retired despite never reaching hurricane status, but the same was done with Allison back in 2001. At the opposite end stands Emily, its 2005 iteration is the only Category 5 hurricane not retired since the current lists were put into use. Joaquin got unlucky, it becomes one of those use-and-throw names (as it went just unused in 2009) like Ike or Igor. In 2021 the names Elsa and Julian in the Atlantic and Pamela in the EPAC will be used instead.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #112 on: May 27, 2016, 05:20:08 PM »

TD 2 has formed by the Bahamas. Expected track takes it towards the South Carolina coastline
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #113 on: May 27, 2016, 06:13:47 PM »

Yesterday the first tropical depression of the Western Pacific as recognised by the Japan Meteorologic Agency (JMA) formed, marking the fifth latest start on record, and half a year after the last depression disipated. This dull happened as El Niño faded away. That phenomenon, combined with a positive Indian Ocean dipole, made the Australian cyclone season the most boring on record, as only three tropical storms formed (Stan, Tatiana, Uriah), of which only one reached hurricane strenght according to the Saffir-Simpson scale (Stan, though Uriah reached category 4 but did so while in the Southwest Indian; no cyclones reached category 3, and thus hurricane strenght, according to the Australian scale).

Now that a TD has formed in the Atlantic, if it reaches tropical storm strenght, it won't be Alex since that was used already in January, but Bonnie.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #114 on: June 05, 2016, 11:12:58 AM »

TD 3 has formed in the western Carribean. Expected tracks gives it a landfall in the panhandle of Florida as a tropical storm and skirts the East coast.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #115 on: July 31, 2016, 09:10:58 PM »

Invest 97L...hmm. Very close to being a tropical depression/storm but can't quite "close off" its LLC quite yet. And where's it going? Nobody knows...South TX, TX/LA, Yucatan, Mexico, Belize, Florida, what's going on. In my amatuerofessional opinion, when it closes off, it'll go right to Tropical Storm Earl.  :coffee: :meh: :hmmm:
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #116 on: August 09, 2016, 11:23:40 AM »

The Eastern Pacific season got to an inactive start, but then five tropical storms formed in the first half of July. Now that is a waking up :sombrero:. And I find the islamic state guilty of forcing tropical storm Ivette last week to have a different name (It would have been Isis otherwise).

Oh, and outside the NOAA (NHC/CPHC) area of responsability I always go with the RSMC. So I will consider a tropical cyclone to be already a tropical storm if it has been named even if the JTWC doesn't say so, and if JTWC considers an unnamed cyclone to be a tropical storm, I will call it a tropical depression since it's not named. Only named systems have reached at least tropical storm status for me.
I would have liked how Meteo-France (or rather, Mauritius or Madagascar) would have named a tropical storm in the SW Indian had it formed in July or August, as back then they didn't have announced the current list.

This year a tropical storm formed in its area of responsability in July (which there is like January). Fortunately they had already released the lists for the next three seasons, so they were able to name it.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #117 on: September 03, 2016, 07:57:26 PM »

So, someone was off their game with a particular tropical storm that starts with H which escaped from the Gulf of México and is now meandering its way up the North Atlantic.  Received an NWS alert today, which was a rude shock to my Labor Day weekend.  This week is supposed to be nasty as a result, with catastrophic effects as a result along coastal RI and MA (including beach erosion).  And all while I'm supposed to get the house ready for an aunt who's flying in the area on Thursday.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #118 on: September 04, 2016, 11:34:53 AM »

I've already 'killed' that H storm (Go ahead and say its name: Hermine) since it's no longer tropical. It was the first storm of that name to reach hurricane status. I've also seen Madeline battering Hawaii and now Lester passing to the North of the state. And Japan getting hit by several storms in a row: Kompasu, the 'North Korean' Mindulle (or Mindeulle as I spell it), Lionrock and its crazy track, and now Namtheun (Note: Kompasu goes between Lionrock and Namtheun in the naming list).
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #119 on: September 04, 2016, 12:49:40 PM »

I've already 'killed' that H storm (Go ahead and say its name: Hermine) since it's no longer tropical.

Still, it's going to be quite a menace around here in RI and southeastern Mass.  Beach erosion up and down the coast (on top of a 1-2 foot storm surge - occurring during high tide, IIRC), torrential rains even inland, not to mention the winds - I'd take a nor'easter over a hurricane any day.  I wouldn't discount it just yet.  And on top of that, it's going over Block Island directly - which is an extremely horrendous situation, given the limited evacuation options and its vulnerability to coastal erosion.  So I'm worried.

I've also seen Madeline battering Hawaii and now Lester passing to the North of the state. And Japan getting hit by several storms in a row: Kompasu, the 'North Korean' Mindulle (or Mindeulle as I spell it), Lionrock and its crazy track, and now Namtheun (Note: Kompasu goes between Lionrock and Namtheun in the naming list).

That's quite a mouthful for the Pacific. :eek:
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #120 on: September 09, 2016, 08:16:23 AM »

Newton has broken up over Baja and Sonora, it sent its heavy rain throughout AZ and NM. An increase of humidity and some cloudiness expected for So CA. The cold front is pushing Newton away and high temps locally are in the 90s.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #121 on: September 09, 2016, 06:40:48 PM »

Remnants of Newton is helping to drive the severe weather in the Midwest and central Plains, while giving me a rainy Friday night.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #122 on: September 13, 2016, 05:52:24 AM »

Okay, I put some order in the Western Pacific. I don't recognize tropical storm Malou as such simply because it was not tropical, but subtropical (And Japan doesn't use the subtropical designation). I don't recognize tropical depression 17W because Japan didn't so. I recognize tropical storm Rai as such, not as a depression like JTWC did, because it was named. And I don't recognize typhoon Meranti... well, I recognize it, but not the unrealistically low winds Japan analyzes it (they ALWAYS do that), so I go with the JTWC estimate, extrapolated to 10 minutes (Category 5 with 160 mph 10-min sustained winds).
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #123 on: September 14, 2016, 04:02:42 AM »

How come a tropical storm has formed over land? I didn't believe that was possible, but Julia thinks otherwise. Anyway that is uninteresting to me since there is a category 5 typhoon that has peaked just short of Haiyan elsewhere (that would be Meranti).
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #124 on: September 16, 2016, 12:21:57 AM »

How come a tropical storm has formed over land? I didn't believe that was possible, but Julia thinks otherwise.
TDs frequently form onshore in the Indian Ocean region: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_North_Indian_Ocean_cyclone_season#Deep_Depression_BOB_02

...As for Mertanti, I strongly doubt it ever actually reached its stated peak intensity (165 kt, <890mb, per JTWC). Most objective Dvorak analyses only had it around T7.4 (about 150kt, 910mb; still pretty powerful, but nonetheless).
Compare between Meranti (L) and Haiyan (R) at their peaks. Somehow Meranti has a lower pressure and only 5kt slower wind speeds than Haiyan, despite having a much worse structure and warmer cloud tops.


Is it too much to ask to get reconnaissance in the WPac?
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