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Author Topic: Tropical cyclone tracking thread  (Read 61494 times)

CNGL-Leudimin

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #175 on: September 06, 2017, 11:39:07 AM »

Both Irene and Irma were used before the establishment of current lists in 1979: Irene in 1959 and 1971 and Irma in 1978. And yes, I know the lists are reused every 6 years in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific (out to -140°). Other basins just continue through a long list, and when they reach the end of the list they start over again and thus no Greek letters are used, such as in the Western Pacific (with Guchol being named today only 5 names remain before getting back to the start).
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #176 on: September 06, 2017, 12:33:47 PM »

Latest track shifted Irma to hit Miami, then go back offshore before land-falling somewhere along the southeast Atlantic coastline from Georgia to North Carolina
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berberry

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #177 on: September 06, 2017, 02:32:00 PM »

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berberry

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #178 on: September 06, 2017, 02:57:31 PM »

Latest track shifted Irma to hit Miami, then go back offshore before land-falling somewhere along the southeast Atlantic coastline from Georgia to North Carolina

That's exactly right, a double landfall. More specifically, Miami and points south should be prepared for landfall of a ridiculously strong cat 5 hurricane (the model average is a strong cat 4, but 5 is very possible and should be the focus of preparations. Irma has outperformed her forecasters' predictions for a couple days now). Much of Florida's eastern coastline may be spared a direct hit but instead take a long ride through the western half of the storm after it re-enters the Atlantic Ocean north of Miami. Coastal Georgia and South Carolina, particularly from Savannah to Charleston, should be prepared for a cat 3 or 4 landfall.

« Last Edit: September 06, 2017, 03:15:28 PM by berberry »
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DeaconG

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #179 on: September 06, 2017, 03:02:18 PM »

Oh, lovely. Just checked the NHC track and Irma's projected to exit Florida right where I live (Brevard County). Lovely.
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1995hoo

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #180 on: September 06, 2017, 04:05:44 PM »

Oh, lovely. Just checked the NHC track and Irma's projected to exit Florida right where I live (Brevard County). Lovely.

The track I saw showed the eye passing more or less right over my brother-in-law's area of Broward County and then the storm exiting near my sister-in-law's area in Brevard.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #181 on: September 06, 2017, 05:45:09 PM »

My dad and stepmom recently moved to Sarasota and i also have friends with Florida relatives.
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Stephane Dumas

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #182 on: September 06, 2017, 08:27:47 PM »

Much more worrying, there's 2 nuclear plants in South Florida who's in Irma path. http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article171542692.html
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DeaconG

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #183 on: September 07, 2017, 12:03:22 PM »

Brevard County has just ordered a mandatory evacuation of the beaches and Merritt Island, starting at 3 PM Friday. The latest track shows Irma passing right over KSC. (I live 15 miles west of KSC).
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berberry

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #184 on: September 07, 2017, 01:17:41 PM »

The NHC forecast shows landfall near Miami as a cat 4. Why? I've seen several TV meteorologists say they think it will be a 5, and on the Weather Channel they keep showing the water temperature map, which clearly indicates warmer water off the southern coast of Florida than what Irma is presently churning through in the Atlantic. The NHC track doesn't put the storm over any major land masses before Florida, and there's all that hot water off the Florida coast. I can't imagine what they're thinking is gonna weaken this monster.
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jeffandnicole

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #185 on: September 07, 2017, 01:29:02 PM »

The NHC forecast shows landfall near Miami as a cat 4. Why? I've seen several TV meteorologists say they think it will be a 5, and on the Weather Channel they keep showing the water temperature map, which clearly indicates warmer water off the southern coast of Florida than what Irma is presently churning through in the Atlantic. The NHC track doesn't put the storm over any major land masses before Florida, and there's all that hot water off the Florida coast. I can't imagine what they're thinking is gonna weaken this monster.

Other forces are at play. Namely, the front that is causing Irma to turn north in the first place.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #186 on: September 07, 2017, 03:57:35 PM »

The NHC forecast shows landfall near Miami as a cat 4. Why? I've seen several TV meteorologists say they think it will be a 5, and on the Weather Channel they keep showing the water temperature map, which clearly indicates warmer water off the southern coast of Florida than what Irma is presently churning through in the Atlantic. The NHC track doesn't put the storm over any major land masses before Florida, and there's all that hot water off the Florida coast. I can't imagine what they're thinking is gonna weaken this monster.
There may be some effect from interaction with land.  It's been over tiny islands but is now closer to Hispaniola and, soon, Cuba.  That disrupts the wind pattern, which may weaken it.  As long as the eye and most of the core remain over water the effect should be fairly small.  The forecast shows gradual weakening.  In addition to interaction with land, there's the cold front that was mentioned.  That will likely come along with less upper-level outflow and more shear.  Also, when that cold front is approaching there may be some dry air intrusion.  A hurricane is a precision machine.  Many components can contribute to or detract from a storm's intensity.
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berberry

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #187 on: September 07, 2017, 04:12:12 PM »


Other forces are at play. Namely, the front that is causing Irma to turn north in the first place.


Yeah, that must be it. I suppose it would do so with an influx of dry air? Meteorologists are not entirely in agreement about whether that front will weaken the storm much. Some don't think it will be enough to counteract the hot water that surrounds Florida, and so they say that if it does anything at all it will strengthen before landfall. I've also heard the idea that the front won't approach fast enough to impact Irma all that much. She'd still turn north because the general trend is toward the poles, and she's gonna turn that way as soon as the strong Bermuda high will allow it. I have no formal knowledge of the subject, but as an interested layman it makes less sense to me that it might weaken.
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berberry

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #188 on: September 07, 2017, 04:21:47 PM »

... A hurricane is a precision machine.  Many components can contribute to or detract from a storm's intensity.

Yeah, while our forecasts are not quite so precise, haha. The models have always done a better job of forecasting a storm's path than they've done of forecasting its intensity.
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ET21

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #189 on: September 07, 2017, 04:56:14 PM »

More than likely, the incoming trough that'll help direct Irma will also bring in a bit of shear which hurricanes do not like hence the slight weakening to a cat 4 possibly. Reason why Irma has thrived as a 170-185 mph storm is the lack of shear.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #190 on: September 08, 2017, 07:18:25 PM »

Best wishes to everyone in Irma's path! It looks like, according to the latest model runs, that the storm will go right up the peninsula from the Keys up to the Georgia line and beyond. And as I was saying in another forum I belong to, if Irma should want to blast through Orlando (with all its tourist attractions such as Disney World), Tinkerbell could sprinkle all the pixie dust in the world; it ain't gonna do a damn bit of good.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #191 on: September 08, 2017, 10:29:30 PM »

Barbuda, hit by Irma, is about to meet Jose. The poor bastards.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #192 on: September 09, 2017, 12:39:33 AM »

And Katia just hit Mexico as a cat 2. Mexico just had that 8.4 magnitude earthquake so not looking good for them either.

berberry

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #193 on: September 09, 2017, 09:41:12 AM »

The latest forecast track says Key West, Naples and Tampa could all see the eye of cat 5 Irma. On TV they said that Key West High School is filled to capacity with evacuees, yet emergency management experts are saying the high school may not be safe. A few days ago I said that in the end Irma might make Harvey seem tame by comparison, and the storm still seems to have that potential. I'm happy to say that the several people I know who live in South Florida have either left the state or evacuated to Orlando.

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DeaconG

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #194 on: September 09, 2017, 04:32:28 PM »

Yes, that track shifting west just enough to get Irma off from over me...but my extended family in the Tampa metro area are about to have issues. I'm looking at tropical storm winds by Monday versus Cat 3 several days ago.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #195 on: September 09, 2017, 06:56:00 PM »

http://wfla.com/2017/09/09/traffic-alert-should-use-allowed-on-i-4-from-tampa-to-orlando/

Update Shoulders could be used as the passing lane for hurricane evacuation.
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1995hoo

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #196 on: September 10, 2017, 11:39:29 AM »

The 11:00 update for Irma's track showed it had turned somewhat directly to the north. Looks like a direct track towards the area of Fort Myers where our relatives live. They won't be going anywhere any time soon because the one road that leads in and out of their neighborhood (Briarcliff Road) will surely flood. It floods during ordinary thunderstorms.
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1995hoo

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #197 on: September 10, 2017, 05:51:28 PM »

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"You know, you never have a guaranteed spot until you have a spot guaranteed."
—Olaf Kolzig, as quoted in the Washington Times on March 28, 2003,
commenting on the Capitals clinching a playoff spot.

"That sounded stupid, didn't it?"—Kolzig, to the same reporter a few seconds later.

1995hoo

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #198 on: September 10, 2017, 09:32:13 PM »

I'm not sure whether to applaud our relatives staying in Fort Myers. But I'm chuffed they're OK so far (21:11 Sunday).....

Quote
We feel we are safe - and made it! Some trees and screens that we can see, street is flooded but just at end of driveway here so hopefully won't be an issue - storm surge is still to come so we won't know till later or tomorrow about mom and dads. Thank you for all the prayers and support we'll continue to send updates when the sunshines! ❤️

Her parents live closer to the coast and flooding was a serious worry.
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"You know, you never have a guaranteed spot until you have a spot guaranteed."
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"That sounded stupid, didn't it?"—Kolzig, to the same reporter a few seconds later.

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