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Author Topic: Tropical cyclone tracking thread  (Read 61515 times)

US71

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #250 on: October 06, 2017, 10:43:34 PM »

Jim Cantore is reported to be at Orange Beach, AL
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #251 on: October 06, 2017, 11:24:22 PM »

Oh god... Iím not going there to meet the ďHurricane Magnet!Ē
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #252 on: October 06, 2017, 11:36:53 PM »

Well... just updated. Nate is now a 75 mph Cat 1. Iím betting itíll reach Cat 2.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #253 on: October 07, 2017, 03:54:33 PM »

Well... just updated. Nate is now a 75 mph Cat 1. Iím betting itíll reach Cat 2.

It did, at 90 mph (Edit: Whoops...that's still Cat 1, my bad).  It may strengthen a little more prior to hitting land.

As far as hurricanes go, this one's gonna get a speeding ticket.  It's moving NNW at an amazing 25 mph, getting ready to turn N then NNE.  Hurricanes generally like warmer water, and the water temperature is still in the upper 70's, but there's a ridge the storm has attached itself to that is causing this one to fly thru the Gulf.

It'll hit land tonight.  This time tomorrow it'll already be near Kentucky, and in 48 hours - Monday Evening - it'll be around New York State!

The NHC site has good discussion about it: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/071504.shtml? .  Click on the 'Graphics' link to view the various paths and cones.
« Last Edit: October 07, 2017, 04:00:12 PM by jeffandnicole »
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #254 on: October 10, 2017, 03:34:35 PM »

Then Ophelia decided to form. Will we get to Rina? Will we get to Whitney for all I care? Probably not... Rina, probably.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #255 on: October 10, 2017, 05:35:54 PM »

This year's list is the same one that was exhausted in 2005 except for a few names that were replaced. I would like to see another Vince, but I guess we will end with Philippe or Rina.

Side note: in 2014 we got a hurricane Vance in the Pacific.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #256 on: October 26, 2017, 08:37:12 AM »

From NHC: A broad area of low pressure located over the western Caribbean Sea
and Central America continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Close proximity to land is likely to limit
development of this system during the next 24 hours. However,
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for the system
to become more organized Friday and Saturday as it moves slowly
northward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Strong upper-level
winds associated with an approaching cold front will make conditions
less favorable by Sunday. Regardless of development, this system is
expected to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of Central
America and Cuba during the next couple of days. These rains are
forecast to spread northward across portions of South Florida and
the Keys on Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Next name is Philippe.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #257 on: October 26, 2017, 04:54:04 PM »

Meanwhile the Western Pacific has run out of names. Unlike the NHC, Japan uses only one long list, and every year they continue from where they left the previous year. So now they have reached the end, they start over from the beginning.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #258 on: October 27, 2017, 02:32:16 PM »

A tropical low has become really organized. Now with a high 80% chance to develop.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #259 on: October 28, 2017, 02:01:57 PM »

TD-18 has formed just south of Cuba
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #260 on: October 30, 2017, 01:37:14 PM »

TD-18 has formed just south of Cuba
Although it came and went, it developed into Philippe. Next name is Rina... shouldíve found a better replacement name for Rita.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #261 on: October 31, 2017, 10:08:42 AM »

TD-18 has formed just south of Cuba
Although it came and went, it developed into Philippe. Next name is Rina... shouldíve found a better replacement name for Rita.

Lovely Rina, mener maid! :-D
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #262 on: November 02, 2017, 07:44:09 AM »

Harvey the costliest storm on record. Wow.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #263 on: November 02, 2017, 08:44:41 AM »

Harvey the costliest storm on record. Wow.

Not surprising considering the entire region of southeastern Texas was destroyed in some fashion: wind damage to the south near Corpus Christi, flooding in the Houston metro area and parts of southwestern LA. Then flooding up through the Tennessee Valley, lower Mississippi Valley, and parts of the Appalachians as it moved further inland as a post tropical system.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #264 on: November 07, 2017, 02:07:20 PM »

A little late - 10 PM EST yesterday, Rina was designated.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #265 on: January 16, 2018, 12:10:07 PM »

Thread revival ó several storms have been active since Rina. Now we have Berguitta active in the Indian.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #266 on: January 16, 2018, 04:35:25 PM »

Yup, cyclone Berguitta in the Southwest Indian. So far the Southern Hemisphere has had the following storms:
Tropical Storm Cempaka (Australia but named by Indonesia, not tracked by the JTWC)
Tropical Storm Dahlia (Australia but again named by Indonesia)
Cyclone Ava, category 2 (Southwest Indian)
Cyclone Irving, category 2 (Formed in Australia but quickly crossed into the Southwest Indian)
Tropical Storm Joyce (Australia, somehow managed to survive overland for a long time)

In addition we already had the first storm of the Northwest Pacific (or as I call it the "Typhoon Pacific"), Tropical Storm Bolaven (known in the Philippines as Agaton and never considered a storm by the JTWC). Last year there were fewer category 5 typhoons (only the long-lasting Noru) than category 5 hurricanes in the Atlantic (Irma and Maria).
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #268 on: January 25, 2018, 10:23:45 AM »

Yup, cyclone Berguitta in the Southwest Indian. So far the Southern Hemisphere has had the following storms:
Tropical Storm Cempaka (Australia but named by Indonesia, not tracked by the JTWC)
Tropical Storm Dahlia (Australia but again named by Indonesia)
Cyclone Ava, category 2 (Southwest Indian)
Cyclone Irving, category 2 (Formed in Australia but quickly crossed into the Southwest Indian)
Tropical Storm Joyce (Australia, somehow managed to survive overland for a long time)

In addition we already had the first storm of the Northwest Pacific (or as I call it the "Typhoon Pacific"), Tropical Storm Bolaven (known in the Philippines as Agaton and never considered a storm by the JTWC). Last year there were fewer category 5 typhoons (only the long-lasting Noru) than category 5 hurricanes in the Atlantic (Irma and Maria).

IMO, Lan is a Cat 5. Looked like one, had a ASCAT pass with Cat 5 Winds...
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #269 on: January 29, 2018, 02:05:24 PM »

And then Cebile decided to peak as the strongest storm so far in 2018 - 135 mph.
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CNGL-Leudimin

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #270 on: January 29, 2018, 03:04:46 PM »

Nice to see another hurricane tracker. I haven't been really active lately, having shifted my focus to running. I created this thread mainly for Atlantic hurricanes, as obviously the audience of this forum would be more interested on them, even though I decided to open this to anything anywhere. However, I have some idiosyncrasies, such as I always estimate wind speeds in a 10 minute lapse as recommended by the WMO, and thus they are about 1.14 times lower than JTWC's 1 minute estimates. For example I consider Cebile to have peaked at 115 mph, which matches Meteo-France advisories.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #271 on: January 31, 2018, 11:16:40 AM »

Nice to see another hurricane tracker. I haven't been really active lately, having shifted my focus to running. I created this thread mainly for Atlantic hurricanes, as obviously the audience of this forum would be more interested on them, even though I decided to open this to anything anywhere. However, I have some idiosyncrasies, such as I always estimate wind speeds in a 10 minute lapse as recommended by the WMO, and thus they are about 1.14 times lower than JTWC's 1 minute estimates. For example I consider Cebile to have peaked at 115 mph, which matches Meteo-France advisories.
Good to see another one too. I prefer 1-min winds over 10 min, because It’s a lot easier to track those kind of winds.

Also, Cebile is back up to Category 4. Peaked with 140 mph this time.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #272 on: February 09, 2018, 10:58:26 AM »

TD 02W forms, as well as Cyclone Gita in the SPAC.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #273 on: February 12, 2018, 09:42:41 AM »

02W decided to became a Tropical Storm, and received the name Sanba. Gita is also nearly a Cat 5 on the Australian Scale...
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #274 on: February 12, 2018, 11:07:17 AM »

Gita could also be the strongest storm to ever have hit Tonga.
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