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Author Topic: Tropical cyclone tracking thread  (Read 59251 times)

MikeTheActuary

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #375 on: September 12, 2018, 09:05:45 PM »

Waffle House has activated its Emergency Operations Center, and Fox News has educated its viewers/readers on FEMA's Waffle House Index: http://www.foxnews.com/food-drink/2018/09/12/hurricane-florence-prompts-waffle-house-to-activate-storm-center.html
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Beltway

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #376 on: September 12, 2018, 09:08:05 PM »

Weather channel on tv (can't find it on their website) said TS winds extend 170 miles out from the center.  NHC puts the cumulative probability of Richmond getting a 39 mph sustained wind at 31% . 

I'm not sure what the cumulative probability means in a practical sense.  The probabilities for any 24 hour period are in the single digits.  Those are probably predicated on the low probability of the storm taking a significant turn to the north, which is in the realm of possibility.
« Last Edit: September 12, 2018, 09:10:48 PM by Beltway »
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #377 on: September 12, 2018, 11:02:13 PM »

Florence is down to a Cat 2 but wind field is now 80 miles for hurrivane force and 195 for TS force. Honestly this is worse than a cat 4 coming ashore here. NHC is also calling for a 110 mph landfall, I'm a little skeptical of that as the shear won't subside for another 12 hours at least.

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Beltway

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #378 on: September 12, 2018, 11:22:28 PM »

Florence is down to a Cat 2 but wind field is now 80 miles for hurrivane force and 195 for TS force.

*UP TO* that distance, as I commented about earlier.

Honestly this is worse than a cat 4 coming ashore here. NHC is also calling for a 110 mph landfall, I'm a little skeptical of that as the shear won't subside for another 12 hours at least.

Steadily decreasing in wind speeds.  I bet it will be down to 95 mph high Cat 1 at landfall.  In any event, Cat 2 is no way comparable to Cat 4 which would cause catastrophic wind damage plus a very high storm surge.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #379 on: September 13, 2018, 06:29:59 AM »

This is what I mean by ambiguity, at least with the "up to" qualifier.  Per NHC at 500 AM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018.

"Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km).  A NOAA buoy located about 80 miles (130 km) south of the center of Florence has recently reported sustained winds of 52 mph (83 km/h) with a gust to 64 mph (104 km/h)."

The forward motion of the storm is given to be 15 mph, so that would add "up to" 15 mph to the sustained winds north of the center of the storm, and subtract "up to" 15 mph from the sustained winds south of the center.  So the first quoted sentence maximums are for the northern quadrant.  The sustained wind speed at that buoy is 22 mph less than hurricane force.

The quoted statement also may include both sustained winds and gusts.  Tropical storm gusts are not to be trifled with as they are not a quick burst of air as in a thunderstorm, but typically have a 5 to 10 minute duration where they build slowly and then decline slowly.

« Last Edit: September 13, 2018, 06:35:41 AM by Beltway »
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #381 on: September 13, 2018, 06:13:29 PM »

https://www.rappler.com/nation/special-coverage/weather-alert/211950-typhoon-ompong-pagasa-forecast-september-13-2018-11pm


http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/39082319/philippines-starts-massive-evacuations-as-huge-typhoon-nears


A typhoon alert has been issued for Philippines for Typhoon Mangkhut

FTFY. Ompong is just a local name, the official name of that category 5 super typhoon, the one assigned to it by the Japanese Meteorological Agency, is Mangkhut (and even then they don't use names in Japan, Mangkhut being known there as simply "Typhoon no. 22").
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #382 on: September 13, 2018, 06:22:22 PM »

DirecTV channels 361-1 and 361-2 have been activated for severe weather coverage.  The -1 channel is a mix of Weather Channel, Accuweather, CNN, and a random local station, and the -2 channel is most likely the local station.  So far I have seen Durham WTVD, Greensboro WFMY, Winston-Salem WXII, Myrtle Beach WMBF, and Columbia WLTX and WACH coverage represented.

Have the Eastern NC affiliates temporarily gone off the air?  Makes me wonder why Myrtle Beach is the only affiliate on the coast that I’ve seen so far.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #383 on: September 13, 2018, 08:11:01 PM »

Has anyone heard from slorydn?  I know he lives in that area.  To everyone else, please be safe.
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Beltway

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #384 on: September 13, 2018, 08:22:17 PM »

Wilmington, NC, is in the center of the projected track, and weather.com shows current winds of NNW 38 mph.

Here is their weather.com forecast over the next 24 hours.  I will be watching things and commenting on the actuals.

8:30 PM THU NNW 38 mph
8:45 PM THU NNW 39 mph
9:00 PM THU NNW 39 mph
10:00 PM THU NNW 43 mph
11:00 PM THU N 45 mph
12:00 AM FRI N 49 mph
1:00 AM FRI N 49 mph
2:00 AM FRI N 49 mph
3:00 AM FRI N 51 mph
4:00 AM FRI N 53 mph
5:00 AM FRI N 53 mph
6:00 AM FRI N 47 mph
7:00 AM FRI NNE 49 mph
8:00 AM FRI NNE 56 mph
9:00 AM FRI N 55 mph
10:00 AM FRI NNE 54 mph
11:00 AM FRI ENE 52 mph
12:00 PM FRI E 52 mph
1:00 PM FRI E 52 mph
2:00 PM FRI E 55 mph
3:00 PM FRI ESE 54 mph
4:00 PM FRI ESE 55 mph
5:00 PM FRI ESE 55 mph
6:00 PM FRI ESE 60 mph
7:00 PM FRI ESE 58 mph
8:00 PM FRI ESE 43 mph

« Last Edit: September 13, 2018, 08:30:50 PM by Beltway »
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #385 on: September 13, 2018, 09:02:19 PM »

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Beltway

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #386 on: September 13, 2018, 09:14:18 PM »

TV production videographic blunder seen by thousands of viewers … employees may get canned over that.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #387 on: September 13, 2018, 11:24:45 PM »

Florence down to a Cat 1.

NHC is admitting uncertainty with Isaac as it could strengthen again in about 48 hours, or it could degenerate into an open wave. If it does strengthen, it will likely go west. What is intersting is some model runs (about 20%) have Isaac 10 days out going to the same place the 2012 Isaac made landfall, and with similar strength predicted on said models (tropicaltidbits.com). Note: I don't trust models further than 5 days out but something to keep an eye on.

Lastly: Does anyone have any information on hurricane 12 from 1975 (aka pacific northwest hurricane) or the 2006 subtropical storm up at a similar latitude?

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Beltway

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #388 on: September 13, 2018, 11:42:37 PM »

Florence down to a Cat 1.

90 mph.  I predicted that upthread when it was supposedly Cat 4.

Wilmington, NC, is near the ocean, is near the center of the projected track, and weather.com shows current winds of N 51 mph.

Actuals
-------
8:30 PM THU NNW 38 mph
9:45 PM THU NNW 47 mph
10:00 PM THU NNW 47 mph
10:30 PM THU N 48 mph
11:30 PM THU N 51 mph
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #390 on: September 14, 2018, 12:09:19 AM »

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Beltway

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #391 on: September 14, 2018, 05:30:06 AM »

Per Weather.com at 5:30 AM

Morehead City, NC
5:30 AM FRI ESE 84 mph

Wilmington, NC Hourly Weather
5:30 AM FRI NNW 67 mph
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #392 on: September 14, 2018, 09:20:14 AM »

We have landfall as a Cat One with 95 mph winds, just south of Wilmington NC
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Beltway

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #393 on: September 14, 2018, 09:30:02 AM »

We have landfall as a Cat One with 95 mph winds, just south of Wilmington NC

Who says?  Weather dot com reports current winds of NNE 57 mph at Wilmington.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #394 on: September 14, 2018, 10:16:08 AM »

I've been looking at NCDOT and SCDOT cameras along I-95, and there are empty spots and occasional cars going by. Florence, SC seems to have the most traffic, and it's moving.

Unless conditions change during the day or the weekend, I have a feeling my trip next week may not be a bust after all.

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #395 on: September 14, 2018, 12:00:24 PM »

https://wcti12.com/weather/hurricane-stories/statement-from-wcti-general-manager-matt-bowman

Update WCTI in North Carolina has been ordered to evacuate due to Florence.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #396 on: September 14, 2018, 12:05:22 PM »

https://wcti12.com/weather/hurricane-stories/statement-from-wcti-general-manager-matt-bowman

Update WCTI in North Carolina has been ordered to evacuate due to Florence.

[Bullshit]Our first priority is always the safety and well-being of our staff [/bullshit]

If that was their first priority, they wouldn't be putting their staff and reporters in dangerous situations in the first place, using the 2nd Amendment as their justification for doing so.  They could've easily located a few days ago.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #397 on: September 14, 2018, 12:19:30 PM »

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/09/14/super-typhoon-mangkhut-s-strongest-storm-slam-into-philippines/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.c7a6c8cc6f22


Here is an update on Typhoon Mangkut in the Philippines note China has been mentioned to be in the storm's path.
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Beltway

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #398 on: September 14, 2018, 12:54:58 PM »

https://wcti12.com/weather/hurricane-stories/statement-from-wcti-general-manager-matt-bowman
Update WCTI in North Carolina has been ordered to evacuate due to Florence.
[Bullshit]Our first priority is always the safety and well-being of our staff [/bullshit]
If that was their first priority, they wouldn't be putting their staff and reporters in dangerous situations in the first place, using the 2nd Amendment as their justification for doing so.  They could've easily located a few days ago.

Says because of rising waters.  I heard earlier that it was 10 feet above MHW.  New Bern is up the Neuse River and there is a funnel effect for waters coming up the bay.

New Bern now has easterly winds of 38 mph per Weather.com.  Now slightly less than TS winds, but the direction would blow waters up the river.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #399 on: September 14, 2018, 01:55:37 PM »

Super Typhoon Mangkhut (equivalent to a Category 5) is about to make landfall in Luzon with 165 mph winds, after peaking with 180 mph.
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