How long will it take for route numbers to vanish?

[roadman65]

With the threat of Self Driving Cars and the current use of the GPS, route numbers that we use that are designated by federal, state, and regional road agencies really won't be necessary any longer.  Currently most GPS users do not look at a map to see what route number (or numbers) to get between two points.    They just follow along and most do not pay attention to shields.  For example, going from Denver to Colorado Springs requires you to take I-25 between the two cities, however if someone uses the GPS, and drives between the two, you can bet that most drivers would not even realize or even care they used I-25 to get there.

Most people its amazing that we get our ass out of the bedroom to the toilet on our own, but most are using the GPS to get to their house to a nearby beach for fun and recreation.  This GPS thing is here to stay and with talk on another thread people nowadays pick and choose what road signs are important to read or not.  Route shields are one that many will ignore.  Heck most here in Orlando do not even realize most of US 441 is concurrent with US 17 & 92 even signal contractors.  The signal, for example, at US 17, 92, & 441 at Stable Drive has its street blade to read "US 441." and not even "Orange Blossom Trail" as the other signalized intersections use as its the local street name.  All three routes are signed together, and most drivers still only see the US 441 shield and not the US 17 and US 92 shields that are more conspicuous as they are on top over the US 441 shield.

So in about twenty years I somehow feel that route designations will no longer be signed and PA and NY reference numbers will be used for highway identification and inventory listing.  What are your thoughts?

[formulanone]

I think they'll still be around for a long time: there's still going to be human-driven vehicles for a number of decades. It might take a few generations for that to truly change; even then, there will be some folks who will take 'ol 2039 Mazda Miata for a spin (every other summer weekend, after contacting their personal insurance rep and electronically signing the affidavit by some method not-yet-invented).

There's still a lot of help that signs perform; I think many people still look for those. How they become machine-readable is another matter...

[Max Rockatansky]

We're talking about a technology that is still in it's infancy and might get a pretty big hammer (rightfully or wrongfully is up to your interpretation) from legislatures.  Say everything is smooth sailing or at least best care scenario with the progress of automation technology....will it even occupy 20% of the market in 20 years or even 10%?  I would draw a comparison to electric cars or hybrids that utilize battery power trains, they have progressed but aren't ready price wise to become a standard feature for the masses.  Another thing to consider, all this automation technology and nobody ever really talks is how it would affect the trucking industry?  As far as I know nobody has really even given a series look on how to automate a heavy duty truck.  So even if automation becomes a thing for the run of the mill commuter the signage will likely needed even if it is mostly serving commercial navigation. 

[kphoger]

Not till after bicycles are prohibited.

[kalvado]

Not till after bicycles are prohibited.

[froggie]

^ As you may or may not be aware, there are some freeways in western states that allow bicycles.  Nevermind that the vast majority of numbered routes are NOT on freeways.

[Max Rockatansky]

^ As you may or may not be aware, there are some freeways in western states that allow bicycles.  Nevermind that the vast majority of numbered routes are NOT on freeways.

I-17 comes to mind in that regard.  It was always something to see bike riders heading downhill next to cars blowing past them at 80 MPH.  I never understood why they wouldn't want to take the more scenic detour down Bumble Bee Road.

[kalvado]

^ As you may or may not be aware, there are some freeways in western states that allow bicycles.  Nevermind that the vast majority of numbered routes are NOT on freeways.

I am thinking more about long haul interstates keeping their numbers. My impression is that those are the ones with strongest road-number association.
Bicycles, on the other hand, are mostly short haul - and my impression that for short haul numbers are less important than for long haul. SHort haul often has street name for numbered road, and that name is used more than number

Maybe I am wrong, though.

[Brian556]

Remember that roads still need numbers for internal purposes at the DOT.

[kphoger]

Sat-nav devices still need to tell you which road to turn on, in case there are multiple turns near your point of exit.  In that regard, numbers are simpler and shorter than names.

[froggie]

Also, there are plenty of locations across the country where a given streetname is derived from its highway route number.

Should also mention an example of kphoger's comment from my part of the world:  which do you think people will have an easier time figuring out, especially if they're not from the area:  Dry Pond Rd, or Route 16?

[pianocello]

Route numbers have the potential remain, at least in conversation or addresses long after they're decommissioned. Here's an example: Many businesses in St. Johns, MI are addressed to US-27 (e.g. the McDonalds is located at 920 S. US-27). US-27 hasn't existed in the state since 2002, and it was last on that stretch of road in 1996 (or earlier). There are plenty of other examples where the road name is literally just the route number, even in some cities.

[Bruce]

Bicycles have their own national numbering scheme too, you know...it's about distance, not mode.

[kphoger]

Bicycles have their own national numbering scheme too, you know...it's about distance, not mode.

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Yes, I know.  My point was that not everyone transiting highways is doing so in a vehicle that can give them directions from a speaker.  Route numbers will remain useful for people crossing the country by bicycle.

FWIW, if the bicycle were to be invented nowadays rather than long ago, I'm certain they wouldn't allow us to ride them because they're too dangerous.

[epzik8]

I hate GPS with a passion. I actually know how to read maps, and I'm sure everyone else on this forum knows how to as well. I've read and understood maps since I was probably 5 years old. I understand them so well that I'm able to memorize them in my head without having to bring them along with me on my mini-road trips. And it would be a shame if American highway numbers were to disappear because of GPS and self-driving cars.

[US 41]

So in about twenty years I somehow feel that route designations will no longer be signed and PA and NY reference numbers will be used for highway identification and inventory listing.  What are your thoughts?

You're kidding right?

I would be willing to bet that in 20 years that more than 95% of the population in the US that owns a vehicle, will own a vehicle that they have to drive themselves. I'd even be willing to bet when I die in 60 years that most vehicles on the road will still be vehicles that you have to drive yourself.

I don't think most people are going to trust or even be able to afford cars with that kind of technology. Plus it only takes one thing to go wrong with a self driving car and you're either going to be dead or seriously injured.

[kalvado]

So in about twenty years I somehow feel that route designations will no longer be signed and PA and NY reference numbers will be used for highway identification and inventory listing.  What are your thoughts?

You're kidding right?

I would be willing to bet that in 20 years that more than 95% of the population in the US that owns a vehicle, will own a vehicle that they have to drive themselves. I'd even be willing to bet when I die in 60 years that most vehicles on the road will still be vehicles that you have to drive yourself.

I don't think most people are going to trust or even be able to afford cars with that kind of technology. Plus it only takes one thing to go wrong with a self driving car and you're either going to be dead or seriously injured.

As far as I remember, it is expected that vehicles made today would last 20-25 years. Self driving cars are in the infancy yet, I don't expect mass production within at least 5 years. Then production rump-up..

So more meaningful question is what would happen in 40 years, when cars which replace today vehicles are retired..

[NE2]

I hate GPS with a passion.

Why? GPS is a satellite-based system that tells you your location. In other words, it makes it possible to find where you are on a map without going through the index and looking up nearby streets.

[kphoger]

Wait...  Are self-driving cars expected to replace driven cars or simply be an option alongside them?

[Max Rockatansky]

Wait...  Are self-driving cars expected to replace driven cars or simply be an option alongside them?

Whether they designed to replace them or not implimenation of something like that would take generations, it certainly wouldn't be even close to possible in the 20 years that many of the proponents claim that it will be.  Bottom line you'll have a high entry price for the feature kind of like how hybrids and electric motors are now.  The price will gradually decline over time as demand increases and the technology becomes easier to produce cost effectively.  Lest we forget that there is still a large chunk of the population who hang on to 10 year plus vehicles for one reason or another...money or the lack thereof being the leading reason.

I think the GPS is just the punching bag a lot of road-geeks use for the people who get lost going around the block.  Really these were the same people who couldn't read a map decades ago.  They might blindly follow said GPS to oblivion but the devices are more suitable to their navigation needs.  Hell I like my GPS, but it is just a facilitator of being useful for information like altitude and being able to program a local detour if need be that I wouldn't know otherwise.

[kphoger]

If anything, I would expect the product of self-driving cars and GPS/SatNav to be more numbers, not fewer.  After all, computers don't care about cute street names, just humans do.  In a hundred years, what if every street and road in the country were given an hexadecimal identifier or something like that?

[Max Rockatansky]

You hit the nail on the head, it's something that's a far flung in terms of happening.  I seem to recall there were similar seniments about flying cars making roads unnecessary at some point but obviously that technology proved impractical.  So basically going back to the main question posed by the OP, we're looking at several generations of use before things like road signage become irrelevant and there is full road-way automation.  There is still so many hurdles that can make the automation technology plateau or sputter out completely that really can't be foreseen in it's present form.  If anything is true it's certain that the automation technology would be completely dependent on GPS guidance.  So what happens if you don't get the software upgrade and your car decides to take you down a road that no longer exists or was pulverized for an expansion project?  For the foreseeable future I can't even see allowing for full automation that can't be intervened upon by the human occupant of the vehicle.  Even planes require the pilot to be paying attention and prepared to intervene when necessary.

[7/8]

You hit the nail on the head, it's something that's a far flung in terms of happening.  I seem to recall there were similar seniments about flying cars making roads unnecessary at some point but obviously that technology proved impractical.  So basically going back to the main question posed by the OP, we're looking at several generations of use before things like road signage become irrelevant and there is full road-way automation.  There is still so many hurdles that can make the automation technology plateau or sputter out completely that really can't be foreseen in it's present form.  If anything is true it's certain that the automation technology would be completely dependent on GPS guidance.  So what happens if you don't get the software upgrade and your car decides to take you down a road that no longer exists or was pulverized for an expansion project?  For the foreseeable future I can't even see allowing for full automation that can't be intervened upon by the human occupant of the vehicle.  Even planes require the pilot to be paying attention and prepared to intervene when necessary.

I remember watching the Discovery channel with my brothers as a kid (maybe 10 years ago) saying there would be widespread use of flying cars around 2012, and we were so pumped. What a bunch of bogus that turned out to be

[kphoger]

I had a book that said we would have fully converted to metric by 1983.

Predictions are bunk.  I believe things when they happen and not before.

[Kacie Jane]

Sat-nav devices still need to tell you which road to turn on, in case there are multiple turns near your point of exit.  In that regard, numbers are simpler and shorter than names.

This.

The more GPS catches on (though we're probably close enough to peak proliferation already), the *more* route numbers we'll see, not fewer.