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Author Topic: France to ban sales of petrol and diesel cars by 2040  (Read 4912 times)

Max Rockatansky

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Re: France to ban sales of petrol and diesel cars by 2040
« Reply #25 on: July 07, 2017, 08:50:46 AM »

 
I don't see the viability in 23 years for something like this to happen.  Electric cars still cost a substantially larger amount new than the internal combustion counterparts, they don't have the range, nor are they built to last.  That's the dirty little secret to electric and hybrid reliability, you do have to replace the batteries after a certain period of time or number of miles.  That is something that isn't cheap either, I wonder what the going rate on replacement batteries for smaller cars like the Bolt and Left actually these days?  Realistically though, this is more likely to happen in a smaller country in such a short time period where the infrastructure could be built up quicker to support electric.  A country like the US or Canada likely is never going to become completely reliant on electrics given the sheer size vs range compared to internal combustion given the massive size compared to smaller European countries.  Really I think electrics are going to be stuck in the realm of the urban commuter here in the US until the range and price of purchase drops considerably.

France (and most of western Europe) is more evenly spaced in population than the United States; while major cities still exist, there are few areas with almost no people.

That's why it stands a punchers chance at working.  The country is fairly small at something like 250,000 square miles and highly urbanized with 67 million in that space.  Compare that to something like Texas at 268,000 square miles and 28 million people and becomes apparent how packed France really is.  Its unlikely you could get very far from a place to power an electric provided the infrastructure was built up enough.
« Last Edit: July 07, 2017, 08:52:53 AM by Max Rockatansky »
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kalvado

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Re: France to ban sales of petrol and diesel cars by 2040
« Reply #26 on: July 07, 2017, 09:06:19 AM »

I don't see the viability in 23 years for something like this to happen.  Electric cars still cost a substantially larger amount new than the internal combustion counterparts, they don't have the range, nor are they built to last.  That's the dirty little secret to electric and hybrid reliability, you do have to replace the batteries after a certain period of time or number of miles.  That is something that isn't cheap either, I wonder what the going rate on replacement batteries for smaller cars like the Bolt and Left actually these days?  Realistically though, this is more likely to happen in a smaller country in such a short time period where the infrastructure could be built up quicker to support electric.  A country like the US or Canada likely is never going to become completely reliant on electrics given the sheer size vs range compared to internal combustion given the massive size compared to smaller European countries.  Really I think electrics are going to be stuck in the realm of the urban commuter here in the US until the range and price of purchase drops considerably.
Range: how often you really use the range of a gas car? I would say that I do not drive more than 100 miles/day for at least 28 days a month. Roadgeeks aside, people tend to consider 300 miles as a threshold for a flight.
Cost: you may want to look at how things would go with mass production. Economy of scale is a great thing.
Build to last: did you ever drive cheaper brands? I can show you zillion gas cars not build to last.

I would say electric cars do have their problems, but those are deeper. Are they really cleaner? Some people say no. DO we have enough copper to build all those motors? Neodymium? Some people doubt that.  Can roads sustain increased loads (compare electric and gas curb weight)? Can we generate and distribute enough electric power? - well, those two are a matter of investment. But.. do we have money?

Electric cars attract a lot of wishful thinking, and that pushes technical issues on a back burner. But.. oil is in finite supply, after all...
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Chris

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Re: France to ban sales of petrol and diesel cars by 2040
« Reply #27 on: July 07, 2017, 09:49:49 AM »

A problem in Europe - more so than North America - is that most people do not have a private driveway to charge their electric vehicle overnight. So they are dependent on street side parking. Of course it is possible to build a charging point at public parking spaces, but the cost to do that on a large scale is extremely high.

Charging times and charging capacity are also an issue - I'd say even more so than range. It just takes too long to charge a vehicle for long-distance driving. It is possible, but it is very inconvenient. A 150 mile range would be acceptable if it took only 5 of 10 minutes to recharge.

There are few fast charging stations outside of the freeway system (and even then coverage is limited). This can be mitigated by building more fast charging stations, but the market is too small for that to be economically viable. But once the EV-market becomes big, charging capacity will be an issue. Many fuel stations have 10 or even 20 pumps and along busy routes, they are used non-stop with most vehicles being parked there for only 2-5 minutes. Imagine if everyone had to stop for half an hour or more.

There are 7,500 Teslas in the Netherlands, out of 8.2 million passenger cars overall (that is < 0.001%). But the superchargers are often all taken by Teslas. Fast-charging capacity would need to increase dramatically to be able to carry a large scale EV market.

kalvado

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Re: France to ban sales of petrol and diesel cars by 2040
« Reply #28 on: July 07, 2017, 10:21:31 AM »

There are 7,500 Teslas in the Netherlands, out of 8.2 million passenger cars overall (that is < 0.001%). But the superchargers are often all taken by Teslas. Fast-charging capacity would need to increase dramatically to be able to carry a large scale EV market.
That is about 0.1%, actually.

As for "fast charge in driveway"...
Tesla runs a bit less than 4 miles on 1 kWt*h. 150 miles would need about 40 kWt*h, delivering that in 10 min as you suggest is 240 kWt of power draw, or 500 amps draw. For comparison: most US homes have 100 or 200 amp service, so putting a quick charger in garage/driveway is a significant cost (and would include upgrade of area distribution grid at some point).
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Chris

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Re: France to ban sales of petrol and diesel cars by 2040
« Reply #29 on: July 07, 2017, 11:45:05 AM »

My bad about the 0.1%.

Driving an electric car requires a different mindset. Parking = charging. Long-distance driving usually mean charging up to 80%, because the remaining 20% requires more time.

A Tesla Model S can charge up to 200 miles worth of range in about 25 minutes at a supercharger. However so far the Tesla is an exception, other electric cars require much more time to charge per unit of range. For example the Nissan Leaf, Volkswagen e-Golf or Hyundai Ioniq can charge 90 miles of range in 25-35 minutes, making these electric cars less useful for longer trips than the Tesla.

english si

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Re: France to ban sales of petrol and diesel cars by 2040
« Reply #30 on: July 07, 2017, 12:51:45 PM »

I mean, we can go back to 1800
Macron will like that - he's rather Napoleonic!
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kalvado

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Re: France to ban sales of petrol and diesel cars by 2040
« Reply #31 on: July 07, 2017, 12:59:33 PM »

I mean, we can go back to 1800
Macron will like that - he's rather Napoleonic!
Yeah.. but didn't they predict back then that London streets would be overfilled with horse manure by 1950 or so?
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MikeTheActuary

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Re: France to ban sales of petrol and diesel cars by 2040
« Reply #32 on: July 07, 2017, 01:04:48 PM »

Charging times and charging capacity are also an issue - I'd say even more so than range. It just takes too long to charge a vehicle for long-distance driving. It is possible, but it is very inconvenient. A 150 mile range would be acceptable if it took only 5 of 10 minutes to recharge.

I would suggest that the ideal ought to be:

Range = a typical driver's comfortable bladder capacity plus a safe margin to account for congestion, terrain, and potential sparseness of services

Recharge time = the approximate time needed to return a driver's bladder to "max range"; less if there are fewer recharge stations than potential drivers addressing bladder needs.

For me, at least, on long distance drives, I usually need a bio-break around the time I get to one-third or one-quarter on the gas gauge, if I haven't needed to hit the caffeine too hard.
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jakeroot

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Re: France to ban sales of petrol and diesel cars by 2040
« Reply #33 on: July 07, 2017, 02:24:18 PM »

It's true that diesel particulate filters can very significantly reduce particulate emission from diesel engines, however they only work when the fluid is maintained per manufacturer specifications, and fluid replacement is expensive.  Moreover, DPF systems reduce the power output of vehicles as the car has to produce extra power to push the exhaust through the filter.

As a diesel owner...

1) The Adblue is not expensive. My Golf's Adblue tank is 4 gallons, which costs about $45 USD to fill...every 9,000 miles (you do it yourself).
2) DPFs can reduce the power output, but manufacturers tune the engines with this in mind, so you'd never know.
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Max Rockatansky

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Re: France to ban sales of petrol and diesel cars by 2040
« Reply #34 on: July 07, 2017, 04:43:19 PM »

I don't see the viability in 23 years for something like this to happen.  Electric cars still cost a substantially larger amount new than the internal combustion counterparts, they don't have the range, nor are they built to last.  That's the dirty little secret to electric and hybrid reliability, you do have to replace the batteries after a certain period of time or number of miles.  That is something that isn't cheap either, I wonder what the going rate on replacement batteries for smaller cars like the Bolt and Left actually these days?  Realistically though, this is more likely to happen in a smaller country in such a short time period where the infrastructure could be built up quicker to support electric.  A country like the US or Canada likely is never going to become completely reliant on electrics given the sheer size vs range compared to internal combustion given the massive size compared to smaller European countries.  Really I think electrics are going to be stuck in the realm of the urban commuter here in the US until the range and price of purchase drops considerably.
Range: how often you really use the range of a gas car? I would say that I do not drive more than 100 miles/day for at least 28 days a month. Roadgeeks aside, people tend to consider 300 miles as a threshold for a flight.
Cost: you may want to look at how things would go with mass production. Economy of scale is a great thing.
Build to last: did you ever drive cheaper brands? I can show you zillion gas cars not build to last.

Range:  Me personally?...I'm not exactly the paragon of a good example for the "norm" since I probably do drive at least 30 plus days a year over 300 miles.  The tricky thing out here on the West Coast is that there are substantial distances sometimes between services.  Whereas that wouldn't an issue in the eastern U.S. much less France outside of suburbia on the western side of the country range is a killer for electrics.  I have a couple friends down in Los Angeles who actually drive electrics daily but hung on to a internal combustion vehicle simply because the electric can't hack it outside the city.  But then again, that's why I said France would have a much better chance of building up the infrastructure for electric given the high population density in a relatively small area.
Cost:  That's the thing, electric really needs to be pushed into the forefront of mass production to drive the costs down.  Is France going to a completely electric market going to accomplish that?...probably not...  Would an expanded electric market world wide drop the price of electrics?...more than likely, but what is the threshold?
Build Quality:  At the end of the day the owner is largely the party responsible for their vehicle not lasting and not so much the automaker.  The era of Yugo-type vehicles running ago is pretty much done in first world countries but people who can't maintain their vehicles is still a huge problem.  State side, have you ever run into a person who actually has read the maintenance schedule much less follows it?...its a rarity.  But then again the replacement costs for batteries would go down if electric production were ever to cross a certain point, right now the maintenance costs will be still be substantially higher than an internal combustion counterpart.

english si

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Re: France to ban sales of petrol and diesel cars by 2040
« Reply #35 on: July 07, 2017, 04:46:27 PM »

Yeah.. but didn't they predict back then that London streets would be overfilled with horse manure by 1950 or so?
Yes, though that misses the point I was making, which wasn't about 19th century technology, but about 21st century French presidents!
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kalvado

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Re: France to ban sales of petrol and diesel cars by 2040
« Reply #36 on: July 07, 2017, 05:39:59 PM »

Yeah.. but didn't they predict back then that London streets would be overfilled with horse manure by 1950 or so?
Yes, though that misses the point I was making, which wasn't about 19th century technology, but about 21st century French presidents!
OK, then lets discuss manure production by 21st century politicians?
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Re: France to ban sales of petrol and diesel cars by 2040
« Reply #37 on: July 07, 2017, 05:43:16 PM »

Yeah.. but didn't they predict back then that London streets would be overfilled with horse manure by 1950 or so?
Yes, though that misses the point I was making, which wasn't about 19th century technology, but about 21st century French presidents!
OK, then lets discuss manure production by 21st century politicians?
I can think of one who is a pile of manure, but I won't say who it is.
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vdeane

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Re: France to ban sales of petrol and diesel cars by 2040
« Reply #38 on: July 07, 2017, 06:16:11 PM »

The US and Canada both have areas where just driving to the next metro area alone exceeds the range of an electric car.  That undoubtedly skews the perception of feasibility.  France does not have that problem, nor does most if not all of the EU as a whole.  Imagine an entire country with the density of the I-95 corridor between DC and Boston.  That's what Europe is like.  That is why they are able to set targets for all-electric usage.  If the US were to try the scenario I detailed earlier, you'd need base stations in the middle of nowhere, or relegate those trips to airplanes (which, let's be honest, more and more people are doing now anyways as roadtrips are slowly going the way of the dodo).  Not a problem in Europe.  Even if you exceed the range and have to switch cars, at least you'll be near a metro area the car can base itself in.  Plus most intercity trips there are by train.  Simply put, most people aren't going to be exceeding even the present-day range of electrics, much less the range after some iterative technological improvement.

And yes, I expect the scenario I detailed to come to pass.  Ever hear of the 80/20 problem in technology?  The last 20% of the project takes 80% of the work.  I'd estimate self-driving cars are about 85% complete, so 60% of the work remains.  Similar situation for electric cars.  Considering that both have only been worked on for five, ten years at the very maximum, that's actually right on target.  And the date can be changed or the law repealed if it doesn't pan out.  Also, there's a lot of push for this future.  Government bureaucrats are salivating at the safety aspect, bike/ped/transit advocates are salivating at the end of car ownership, and companies in the car/technology/advertising industries are salivating at the increased profit potential self-driving ride hailing offers (such a company could theoretically do in 10 years what it took Toyota 100 to do in terms of profit).  Simply put: there are too many groups invested in this for society to easily change course.  That doesn't mean I like it.  I don't.  I intend to continue with my manual-transmission, human-driving Civic for as long as possible, but, I don't expect to be able to do so for my entire lifetime.

Where are you getting this from?  There is nothing to suggest that we have hit a wall that will halt development on these fronts.


Umm, the history of the world since Day One.  Science is about finding out what is true, not about "envisioning" something you wish were true.  It is pretty clear that electric cars don't work.  It is yet more clear that the science ficiton of a self-driving car doesn't work. 

For everything you can list that someone invented (discovered to be true) I can list 10000 things that someone did not invent, because these things cannot exist.  In other words science proved these not to be possible.  Not everything you wish was true can be made true.  Somethings just are not possible.  Like practical electric cars, self-driving cars, and so-called "renewable" energy.


What specific evidence do you have to support your position?  Your argument looks like "they're not able to do everything I need right now, so therefore they will always be a failure".  I dare you to cite the evidence needed to prove me wrong, because so far, you don't have anything.  I already made points about electric and self-driving cars, so let's talk about renewable energy, otherwise know as that thing every country in the world other than the US are making MASSIVE investments in.  Experts estimate that wind power along in North Dakota could power the entire country.  Similar for solar panels in Death Valley.  How is that a failure?  Tesla, in addition to cars, is also making home batteries that could be used to store power generated when the sun is shining/wind is blowing to be used when it isn't.  These are not insurmountable problems.  Well, maybe if you're locked into the current paradigm.  But that's not a "scientific impossibility".
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kalvado

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Re: France to ban sales of petrol and diesel cars by 2040
« Reply #39 on: July 07, 2017, 08:10:59 PM »

Yeah.. but didn't they predict back then that London streets would be overfilled with horse manure by 1950 or so?
Yes, though that misses the point I was making, which wasn't about 19th century technology, but about 21st century French presidents!
OK, then lets discuss manure production by 21st century politicians?
I can think of one who is a pile of manure, but I won't say who it is.
A more challenging question is if there is anyone who does NOT fit that definition...
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kalvado

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Re: France to ban sales of petrol and diesel cars by 2040
« Reply #40 on: July 07, 2017, 08:31:34 PM »

The US and Canada both have areas where just driving to the next metro area alone exceeds the range of an electric car.  That undoubtedly skews the perception of feasibility.  France does not have that problem, nor does most if not all of the EU as a whole.  Imagine an entire country with the density of the I-95 corridor between DC and Boston.  That's what Europe is like.  That is why they are able to set targets for all-electric usage.
Which only means that one size doesn't fit all. You may use same logic to say that people living along I-95 corridor (would that be close to population of France?) may reasonably switch to electric if that can be done in Europe. Is that a good idea? I don't know.

let's talk about renewable energy, otherwise know as that thing every country in the world other than the US are making MASSIVE investments in.  Experts estimate that wind power along in North Dakota could power the entire country.  Similar for solar panels in Death Valley.  How is that a failure?  Tesla, in addition to cars, is also making home batteries that could be used to store power generated when the sun is shining/wind is blowing to be used when it isn't.  These are not insurmountable problems.  Well, maybe if you're locked into the current paradigm.  But that's not a "scientific impossibility".
And the cost is.... We're talking about 1000 gigawatts generating capacity. Typical cost for cheaper coal/gas is $1/watt of generating capacity, more for renewables, say $2. Plus all new distribution grid for long haul transport, probably about the same  4e12 dollars is 25% of US annual GDP, or 2.5 Iraq wars.
All-electric cars would double that.

ANd ongoing costs may also be interesting. I did pay $300/month for electricity in apartment during winter months when we had a real winter. (yes, all-electric apartment is not a good idea) That was at NY rate. AT German renewable-heavy rate that would be more than $1000/month... I doubt that would be affordable situation for me..
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vdeane

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Re: France to ban sales of petrol and diesel cars by 2040
« Reply #41 on: July 08, 2017, 01:39:26 AM »

My understanding is that the cost of renewables is continually going down.
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english si

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Re: France to ban sales of petrol and diesel cars by 2040
« Reply #42 on: July 08, 2017, 05:43:34 AM »

Imagine an entire country with the density of the I-95 corridor between DC and Boston.  That's what Europe is like.
That's what parts of (Western) Europe are like - France is less like that (one of the reasons it pioneered HSR is that distances are larger than typical in Europe), though certainly it's more Northeastern in density than Mid-western.
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Chris

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Re: France to ban sales of petrol and diesel cars by 2040
« Reply #43 on: July 08, 2017, 05:43:42 AM »

France is not as densely populated as it is made out to be in this thread. The average is fairly high, but the population is greatly concentrated in a number of urban areas. Almost a fifth of the French population lives in Île-de-France, the area around Paris. Traffic has to travel fairly long distances through rural areas between larger cities. It's not Nevada or Montana of course, but traveling through France is not akin to the Eastern Seaboard either. Exits on the French toll roads are routinely 15 - 20 miles apart because there are no towns of significance to serve.

Germany, Italy, England and the Benelux are much more densely populated than France. In Norway, the number of electric vehicles on the roads outside of the metropolitan areas goes down dramatically. Only Teslas are capable of some decent intercity driving, other vehicles have a limited range which means you have to stop often to recharge.

Bergen and Oslo, Norway's two largest cities, are only 200 miles apart by air. But there are no freeways between them. Even with a gasoline car it takes a solid 7 hours to drive between those cities. It's a very long day to do that with a Nissan Leaf that needs 30 minutes of recharging for every 90 minutes of driving.

kalvado

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Re: France to ban sales of petrol and diesel cars by 2040
« Reply #44 on: July 08, 2017, 08:04:07 AM »

My understanding is that the cost of renewables is continually going down.
It does, but an interesting question is if it will go down to the point of being commercially affordable, or we will have to adapt (lets say instead of paying 30% for housing go to paying 20% for housing and 15% for energy), or that change would be forced on us...
So far, Germany - who is renewable leader - does some crazy subsidies, and on rock solid path to some real crisis I'm afraid.
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Re: France to ban sales of petrol and diesel cars by 2040
« Reply #45 on: July 08, 2017, 08:24:06 AM »

German subsidies on solar panels made them much more expensive for a period - because it created a demand higher than supply. While there's improvements in supply, efficiency, etc, the cost of PV-cells has gone down due to German local governments having bought their fill of heavily-subsidised panels and so demand has decreased.

Germany, when it closed its nuclear power stations in the wake of Fukushima, became reliant on French nuclear power (the French are very happy to oversupply and export to the UK, Germany, etc) and has only decreased that reliance by expanding coal capacity.
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kalvado

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Re: France to ban sales of petrol and diesel cars by 2040
« Reply #46 on: July 08, 2017, 08:59:43 AM »

German subsidies on solar panels made them much more expensive for a period - because it created a demand higher than supply. While there's improvements in supply, efficiency, etc, the cost of PV-cells has gone down due to German local governments having bought their fill of heavily-subsidised panels and so demand has decreased.

Germany, when it closed its nuclear power stations in the wake of Fukushima, became reliant on French nuclear power (the French are very happy to oversupply and export to the UK, Germany, etc) and has only decreased that reliance by expanding coal capacity.
There are secondary effects, like unpredictable demand for coal power - which results in uncertain schedule and reduced returns for coal operators. Due to regulations on how renewable has to be accommodated, price of coal generated energy went negative in few extreme cases. If the ultimate goal is to bankrupt non-renewable sector, Germans are going in a right direction...
In truly economic approach, any weather-dependant project must be handicapped with storage facilities (hydro-pump, battery like Chinese did, or something else) to be able to provide at least short-term operational commitments.  I am afraid those are the things - namely destruction of old business without building sustainable new model - which would make current development mostly useless, if not harmfull in long term.
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Re: France to ban sales of petrol and diesel cars by 2040
« Reply #47 on: July 09, 2017, 12:13:25 AM »

France is not as densely populated as it is made out to be in this thread. The average is fairly high, but the population is greatly concentrated in a number of urban areas. Almost a fifth of the French population lives in Île-de-France, the area around Paris. Traffic has to travel fairly long distances through rural areas between larger cities. It's not Nevada or Montana of course, but traveling through France is not akin to the Eastern Seaboard either. Exits on the French toll roads are routinely 15 - 20 miles apart because there are no towns of significance to serve.

Germany, Italy, England and the Benelux are much more densely populated than France. In Norway, the number of electric vehicles on the roads outside of the metropolitan areas goes down dramatically. Only Teslas are capable of some decent intercity driving, other vehicles have a limited range which means you have to stop often to recharge.

Bergen and Oslo, Norway's two largest cities, are only 200 miles apart by air. But there are no freeways between them. Even with a gasoline car it takes a solid 7 hours to drive between those cities. It's a very long day to do that with a Nissan Leaf that needs 30 minutes of recharging for every 90 minutes of driving.

And the train trip between Bergen and Oslo is about 8 hours one way.

Also, France strikes me as having a density similar to the upper Midwest/Great Lakes part of the USA.

Mike
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Mdcastle

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Re: France to ban sales of petrol and diesel cars by 2040
« Reply #48 on: July 09, 2017, 09:48:35 AM »

Keep in mind that policy makers are not envisioning people going into their garage, getting into their electric car, driving to another metro, and refueling like a gas car of today.  They are envisioning something more like this:
You decide to travel to another metro area, so you grab your phone and open the Uber app and summon a self-driving ride hailing vehicle.  The vehicle arrives at your door a few minutes later,

Then you see that the previous kid was sick in the back seat, so you go back to the app and summon another car. There's a football game starting up, so you're put in the back of a queue and it's an hour before another car arrives. This one smells funky and has dog hair in it but you accept it. You spend an hour loading up your car seats and suitcases because you couldn't do that the night before while being charged a fee for having the car even though you're not moving then you're off. 10 minutes later since you didn't pay for a private car it drives out of the way to pick up a guy that hasn't showered in a month and has already drank his breakfast, takes 30 minutes to load and arrange his stuff, and then won't shut up.


and you get in, potentially alongside other travelers headed in the same direction if you didn't pay extra for a private car.  Instead of looking at the scenery, the windshield is full of ads, and you spend most of the time on your phone looking at Facebook and Netflix.  When the car maxes out its range, it pulls into a charging station, where you get out and transfer to another car
Which takes an hour because again you need to transfer and adjust your child car seat, your suitcases, all the change in the ashtray, you're old McDonalds bag so you don't get fined for leaving trash in the car, and in the mean time your wife and kids have wandered off into a nearby store. Rinse and repeat the process every 100 miles
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SP Cook

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Re: France to ban sales of petrol and diesel cars by 2040
« Reply #49 on: July 10, 2017, 11:13:14 AM »

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What specific evidence do you have to support your position?  Your argument looks like "they're not able to do everything I need right now, so therefore they will always be a failure".  I dare you to cite the evidence needed to prove me wrong, because so far, you don't have anything. 

I'm sorry, you just do not understand what science is.  It is about finding out the unchangable Laws of Nature.  It is not about dreaming up something you WISH were true and making it so.  Because somethings just are not true. 

I can list a billion things that would be nice, from living forever to having wings to warp engines to cars that run on dirt.  None of those can exist.  Not because enough of (other people's) money has not yet been throwen at them, but because they are simply not possible. 

That is what science is.  People that think otherwise are the natural victims of the snake oil salesman.

You honestly think that ANYTHING is possible?  That, given enough money, you could raise a caveman from the dead (memories and all intact) from a fingernail? 

Rediculious.
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