AARoads Forum

Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length

Author Topic: France to ban sales of petrol and diesel cars by 2040  (Read 4151 times)

corco

  • *
  • *
  • Offline Offline

  • Posts: 4900
  • Just Livin' the Dream

  • Age: 30
  • Location: Boise, Idaho
  • Last Login: February 23, 2019, 12:21:03 AM
    • Corcohighways.org
Re: France to ban sales of petrol and diesel cars by 2040
« Reply #50 on: July 10, 2017, 11:32:35 AM »

Quote
You honestly think that ANYTHING is possible?  That, given enough money, you could raise a caveman from the dead (memories and all intact) from a fingernail? 

You know what a straw man is right?

jakeroot

  • *
  • Offline Offline

  • Posts: 9369
  • U/Wash - Urban Design

  • Age: 23
  • Location: Seattle and Tacoma, WA Vancouver, BC | Arlington, VA
  • Last Login: Today at 12:45:22 AM
Re: France to ban sales of petrol and diesel cars by 2040
« Reply #51 on: July 10, 2017, 01:09:50 PM »

Quote
What specific evidence do you have to support your position?  Your argument looks like "they're not able to do everything I need right now, so therefore they will always be a failure".  I dare you to cite the evidence needed to prove me wrong, because so far, you don't have anything. 

I'm sorry, you just do not understand what science is.  It is about finding out the unchangable Laws of Nature.  It is not about dreaming up something you WISH were true and making it so.  Because somethings just are not true.

I can list a billion things that would be nice, from living forever to having wings to warp engines to cars that run on dirt.  None of those can exist.  Not because enough of (other people's) money has not yet been throwen at them, but because they are simply not possible.

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-future-is-now-awesome-things-that-were-impossible-20-years-ago-2011-7
Logged

kalvado

  • *
  • Offline Offline

  • Posts: 2599
  • Location: upstate NY
  • Last Login: February 23, 2019, 10:55:09 PM
Re: France to ban sales of petrol and diesel cars by 2040
« Reply #52 on: July 10, 2017, 01:30:07 PM »

Quote
What specific evidence do you have to support your position?  Your argument looks like "they're not able to do everything I need right now, so therefore they will always be a failure".  I dare you to cite the evidence needed to prove me wrong, because so far, you don't have anything. 

I'm sorry, you just do not understand what science is.  It is about finding out the unchangable Laws of Nature.  It is not about dreaming up something you WISH were true and making it so.  Because somethings just are not true.

I can list a billion things that would be nice, from living forever to having wings to warp engines to cars that run on dirt.  None of those can exist.  Not because enough of (other people's) money has not yet been throwen at them, but because they are simply not possible.

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-future-is-now-awesome-things-that-were-impossible-20-years-ago-2011-7
There is equally long list of things that seemed just around the corner, but never realized.
Vacation on the moon, supersonic flight to Australia, nuclear powered everything just to name a few.
And despite tons and tons of money thrown into cancer research, progress is very slow.
You can try to accelerate certain things, but you cannot bribe Mother Nature..
Logged

vdeane

  • *
  • *
  • Offline Offline

  • Posts: 9757
  • Age: 27
  • Location: Latham, NY
  • Last Login: February 23, 2019, 10:48:18 PM
    • New York State Roads
Re: France to ban sales of petrol and diesel cars by 2040
« Reply #53 on: July 10, 2017, 01:56:11 PM »

Incidentally, there is another type of non-gasoline car that exists that we haven't talked about: hydrogen fuel cells.  These cars don't have the issues that electric cars have with range and refueling time.  There's just one problem... stations to refuel them don't exist.  The push for electric is in part because a homeowner could charge the car overnight in their garage, meaning that they are still usable even if there is no station in town.

I'm sorry, you just do not understand what science is.  It is about finding out the unchangable Laws of Nature.  It is not about dreaming up something you WISH were true and making it so.  Because somethings just are not true. 

I can list a billion things that would be nice, from living forever to having wings to warp engines to cars that run on dirt.  None of those can exist.  Not because enough of (other people's) money has not yet been throwen at them, but because they are simply not possible. 

That is what science is.  People that think otherwise are the natural victims of the snake oil salesman.

You honestly think that ANYTHING is possible?  That, given enough money, you could raise a caveman from the dead (memories and all intact) from a fingernail? 

Rediculious.
You do realize there is a difference between "there are some things that are theoretically impossible" and "electric cars and self-driving cars specifically are impossible", right?  And, of course, there is a difference between revolutionary change and incremental change.  Warp drive is revolutionary.  The advances needed to get self-driving electric cars on the road are incremental.

In many cases, especially with technology, change is not from "good to better" but from "good to better in some ways but worse in others".  Let's say self-driving cars never perform well on a snow-covered roadway (certainly possible).  Dealbreaker?  Perhaps to some, but others would no doubt celebrate about how there would be more room on the roads for plows and emergency responders.  A car that can't go anywhere is a car that won't be violating any travel bans that are imposed.  I could easily see this becoming a something that will never be "fixed" because "it's safer if people just stayed home anyways".  If you're looking for a self-driving electric car that has the exact same capabilities of your human-driven gas car, well that will probably never happen, but it's worth noting that the number of people outside the forum who would consider anything less to be a dealbreaker are in the minority, especially in more urbanized areas.  Most people don't like driving.  They don't care how they get there, as long as they get from point A to point B in the most efficient amount of time.  For them, the car is little more than a mere appliance, on par with a washing machine.  I remember thinking similar thoughts with respect to smartphones.  "Sure, it's nice when you're away from the computer, but who would want to browse on such a tiny screen (and get their fingerprints all over it) and interact through apps instead of a web browser?"  Turns out, most people.  Sure, I'd personally find it quite nice if the future I depicted earlier never comes to pass.  But I don't want to be caught by surprise if I some day find that my stick shift civic isn't being made any more because people want to buy or rideshare self-driving electrics.  As was mentioned, most people fly if it takes more than 300 miles to get somewhere.  Get the range to 300 miles, and only roadgeeks will give a crap how long it takes to recharge.

Also: http://www.makeuseof.com/tag/8-spectacularly-wrong-predictions-computers-internet/

I notice you still haven't responded to my question, by the way.  Why do you feel that further advancement on these fronts will not occur?  What you seem to think is "self-evident" is only "self-evident" to yourself.
Logged
Please note: All comments here represent my own personal opinion and do not reflect the official position of NYSDOT or its affiliates.

jakeroot

  • *
  • Offline Offline

  • Posts: 9369
  • U/Wash - Urban Design

  • Age: 23
  • Location: Seattle and Tacoma, WA Vancouver, BC | Arlington, VA
  • Last Login: Today at 12:45:22 AM
Re: France to ban sales of petrol and diesel cars by 2040
« Reply #54 on: July 10, 2017, 02:36:44 PM »


You can try to accelerate certain things, but you cannot bribe Mother Nature..

(can you stop with the ellipses, please??)

You cannot "bribe" mother nature, but what "she" is capable of is not yet fully understood.

There is equally long list of things that seemed just around the corner, but never realized.
Vacation on the moon, supersonic flight to Australia, nuclear powered everything just to name a few.
And despite tons and tons of money thrown into cancer research, progress is very slow.

Very, very silly list.

Vacation on the moon: possible. Just no demand
Supersonic flight to Australia: possible if Concorde still flew
Nuclear-powered everything: dangers of nuclear power kept that from being realised (still possible though)

Cancer research is slow but there's no evidence to suggest that it cannot be cured.
« Last Edit: July 10, 2017, 05:14:51 PM by jakeroot »
Logged

kalvado

  • *
  • Offline Offline

  • Posts: 2599
  • Location: upstate NY
  • Last Login: February 23, 2019, 10:55:09 PM
Re: France to ban sales of petrol and diesel cars by 2040
« Reply #55 on: July 10, 2017, 04:40:07 PM »


You can try to accelerate certain things, but you cannot bribe Mother Nature..

(can you stop with the ellipses, please??)

You cannot "bribe" mother nature, but what "she" is capable of is not yet fully understood.

There is equally long list of things that seemed just around the corner, but never realized.
Vacation on the moon, supersonic flight to Australia, nuclear powered everything just to name a few.
And despite tons and tons of money thrown into cancer research, progress is very slow.

Very, very silly list.

Vacation on the moon: possible. Just not demand
Supersonic flight to Australia: possible if Concorde still flew
Nuclear-powered everything: dangers of nuclear power kept that from being realised (still possible though)

Cancer research is slow but there's no evidence to suggest that it cannot be cured.

OK, where can I book a ticket for moon vacation? Oh, wait - some people even say Neil Armstrong should get Oscar for that filming, not astronaut wings, and even orbital tourism is not really there..
Concorde didn't have range for Australia trips, BTW, and cost in terms of fuel burn was astronomical. SO next generations of airliners are getting lower fuel burn, less noise - with speed being pretty much irrelevant (actually, even conventional airliners today are slower than airliners of 60-70s).
Nuclear.. Same thing - doing it properly is too expensive.
But - those are the things which formed vision of future at some point, were seen as a proof of almighty science and human intelligence.... Only to get mothballed a few years later.
Can anyone say with certainty that electric cars will not go the same way? Or wouldn't stay as a niche product? Totally possible.

In general, future development is often unpredictable, unexpected problems arise and become show-stoppers.
I suspect that physics is coming to just another hard stop (hopefully before next jump), and biology becomes the fastest growing area. If I had to make some weird predictions, I would say that 100 years from now transportation would still be running on gasoline - but said gasoline would be harvested from new breed of gas-producing trees.  (and I would give myself 5% chance of being correct about that). I don't see electric cars as a good development path...
Logged

jakeroot

  • *
  • Offline Offline

  • Posts: 9369
  • U/Wash - Urban Design

  • Age: 23
  • Location: Seattle and Tacoma, WA Vancouver, BC | Arlington, VA
  • Last Login: Today at 12:45:22 AM
Re: France to ban sales of petrol and diesel cars by 2040
« Reply #56 on: July 10, 2017, 05:38:01 PM »

OK, where can I book a ticket for moon vacation? Oh, wait - some people even say Neil Armstrong should get Oscar for that filming, not astronaut wings, and even orbital tourism is not really there..
Concorde didn't have range for Australia trips, BTW, and cost in terms of fuel burn was astronomical. SO next generations of airliners are getting lower fuel burn, less noise - with speed being pretty much irrelevant (actually, even conventional airliners today are slower than airliners of 60-70s).
Nuclear.. Same thing - doing it properly is too expensive.
But - those are the things which formed vision of future at some point, were seen as a proof of almighty science and human intelligence.... Only to get mothballed a few years later.
Can anyone say with certainty that electric cars will not go the same way? Or wouldn't stay as a niche product? Totally possible.

Building a moon base is possible (or, at least it is in theory). Just because you can't go there right now, doesn't mean it's impossible. We just haven't figured out a way to practically pull it off -- yet!

Concorde had range to reach Oz. It just depended on where you started from. EWR/SYD or LHR/SYD might be out of reach. But development only stopped because of expense and lack of interest, especially in light of 9/11. Just like above, there's no proof to conclude supersonic flight to/from Oz as impossible. The development just hasn't reached that stage -- yet!

Nuclear -- well I don't know enough about it. Yes, it's expensive. But I don't think we've fully exploited its potential. I doubt we will, given the recent nuclear scares. But neither you nor I could definitively say "nuclear doesn't work in everything" because neither of us are in that field. The most important thing is that we know for sure that we don't know if it's impossible or not.

In general, future development is often unpredictable, unexpected problems arise and become show-stoppers.
I suspect that physics is coming to just another hard stop (hopefully before next jump), and biology becomes the fastest growing area. If I had to make some weird predictions, I would say that 100 years from now transportation would still be running on gasoline - but said gasoline would be harvested from new breed of gas-producing trees.  (and I would give myself 5% chance of being correct about that). I don't see electric cars as a good development path...

I couldn't really say for sure where we're headed, in terms of how vehicles are powered. I suspect that petrol/diesel vehicles will be outlawed (due to CO2 emissions) before they become impractical to use (due to increased fuel costs).

My prediction is that the battery capacity for electric vehicles will improve dramatically over the next ten years, alongside improvements in charge time, where these vehicles become just as practical as gas-powered cars. But the costs are the most important thing, and is ultimately what keeps something from hitting prime-time. It remains to be seen whether or not electric cars will improve in terms of drive-away price.
Logged

JJBers

  • *
  • Offline Offline

  • Posts: 670
  • I'm a road geek in the middle of nowhere

  • Age: 15
  • Location: Willimantic, CT
  • Last Login: October 12, 2018, 08:32:34 PM
Re: France to ban sales of petrol and diesel cars by 2040
« Reply #57 on: July 10, 2017, 07:25:59 PM »

Can we move this to off-topic? It really isn't about highways.
Logged
Clinched Stats,
Flickr,
(2di: I-81 [TN, WV-MD], I-84, I-95 [NH, CT-NY, MD-GA], and I-91)

jakeroot

  • *
  • Offline Offline

  • Posts: 9369
  • U/Wash - Urban Design

  • Age: 23
  • Location: Seattle and Tacoma, WA Vancouver, BC | Arlington, VA
  • Last Login: Today at 12:45:22 AM
Re: France to ban sales of petrol and diesel cars by 2040
« Reply #58 on: July 11, 2017, 04:10:33 AM »

Can we move this to off-topic? It really isn't about highways.

Might be better in "Travel". Maybe. Definitely not "international highways" though.
Logged

mgk920

  • *
  • Offline Offline

  • Posts: 3195
  • Location: Appleton, WI USA
  • Last Login: February 23, 2019, 11:16:27 PM
Re: France to ban sales of petrol and diesel cars by 2040
« Reply #59 on: July 11, 2017, 03:57:59 PM »

Keep in mind that policy makers are not envisioning people going into their garage, getting into their electric car, driving to another metro, and refueling like a gas car of today.  They are envisioning something more like this:
You decide to travel to another metro area, so you grab your phone and open the Uber app and summon a self-driving ride hailing vehicle.  The vehicle arrives at your door a few minutes later,

Then you see that the previous kid was sick in the back seat, so you go back to the app and summon another car. There's a football game starting up, so you're put in the back of a queue and it's an hour before another car arrives. This one smells funky and has dog hair in it but you accept it. You spend an hour loading up your car seats and suitcases because you couldn't do that the night before while being charged a fee for having the car even though you're not moving then you're off. 10 minutes later since you didn't pay for a private car it drives out of the way to pick up a guy that hasn't showered in a month and has already drank his breakfast, takes 30 minutes to load and arrange his stuff, and then won't shut up.


and you get in, potentially alongside other travelers headed in the same direction if you didn't pay extra for a private car.  Instead of looking at the scenery, the windshield is full of ads, and you spend most of the time on your phone looking at Facebook and Netflix.  When the car maxes out its range, it pulls into a charging station, where you get out and transfer to another car
Which takes an hour because again you need to transfer and adjust your child car seat, your suitcases, all the change in the ashtray, you're old McDonalds bag so you don't get fined for leaving trash in the car, and in the mean time your wife and kids have wandered off into a nearby store. Rinse and repeat the process every 100 miles

AAAAAND . . .

. . . this all also assumes that there will be a 'relief' car available when you get there.

Mike
Logged

 


Opinions expressed here on belong solely to the poster and do not represent or reflect the opinions or beliefs of AARoads, its creators and/or associates.