Coronavirus pandemic

[kalvado]

then keep the borders closed to keep it from coming back until a vaccine or treatment is developed that allows a full return to normalcy than easing to lighter measures that stay around forever.

Actually, it's more likely other countries will close their borders to the US, given that this country leads the worlds in infections.

2 weeks quarantine at the border - international borders optimistically, state or regional borders within US mildly pessimistically, at city fence pessimistically.
Comparmentalization is  well known strategy for disease control... Constitutional? well, Darwin theory works regardless.

[kalvado]

then keep the borders closed to keep it from coming back until a vaccine or treatment is developed that allows a full return to normalcy than easing to lighter measures that stay around forever.

Actually, it's more likely other countries will close their borders to the US, given that this country leads the worlds in reported infections.

Made a very important fix for you there.

Deaths may be a better metric, and NY has a chance to catch up with Italy and Spain - and probably already is on a per-capita basis.
This thing will be known as NYC virus after all, I'm afraid

[vdeane]

then keep the borders closed to keep it from coming back until a vaccine or treatment is developed that allows a full return to normalcy than easing to lighter measures that stay around forever.

Actually, it's more likely other countries will close their borders to the US, given that this country leads the worlds in infections. 

For now, but not forever.  Look at China.  For a while the danger was people from there spreading it to the rest of the world, but now the danger is people from everywhere else spreading it back, leading to China closing their border to prevent this.

I'd rather keep the heavier measures for long enough to eradicate the disease in the US and then keep the borders closed to keep it from coming back until a vaccine or treatment is developed that allows a full return to normalcy than easing to lighter measures that stay around forever.

Forget eradication. Not really an option here.
Mutating virus to less severe disease is the best possible - but not guaranteed - case.

Maybe not globally, but within a country should be possible.  China managed - they got to a point where 100% of new cases could be traced to travel from out of the country, at which point they shut the border and reopened the country.  True, they're also not 100% normal, but they're an authoritarian country so if they can reopen sooner by using surveillance and civil liberties infringements rather than waiting for 100% of people with the virus to be recovered and no longer infectious, that's what they're going to do.

then keep the borders closed to keep it from coming back until a vaccine or treatment is developed that allows a full return to normalcy than easing to lighter measures that stay around forever.

Actually, it's more likely other countries will close their borders to the US, given that this country leads the worlds in reported infections.

Made a very important fix for you there.

Deaths may be a better metric, and NY has a chance to catch up with Italy and Spain - and probably already is on a per-capita basis.
This thing will be known as NYC virus after all, I'm afraid

Italy had to ration who was treated for coronavirus.  As Cuomo said in a daily press briefing, NYC never got to the point where people were being refused care due to lack of capacity (though I'm sure it came uncomfortably close, and required special provisions like sharing ventilators).

[kalvado]

Deaths may be a better metric, and NY has a chance to catch up with Italy and Spain - and probably already is on a per-capita basis.
This thing will be known as NYC virus after all, I'm afraid

Italy had to ration who was treated for coronavirus.  As Cuomo said in a daily press briefing, NYC never got to the point where people were being refused care due to lack of capacity (though I'm sure it came uncomfortably close, and required special provisions like sharing ventilators).

NY had a much better preparedness, yet of right now Italy has 302 deaths per million, Spain 326 and NYS 360 - and unlike Europe, NYS isn't past death peak yet.
Underreporting is a big question. NYC has about 150-200 daily undiagnosed at-home deaths more than normal (10x normal, actually)  - about 20%. Not sure what EU numbers are (not trivial, for sure. France doubled their number in a single day because of similar issue). But even with hyperactive Cuomo, NYC is worse off than any other  spot on a map.

UPD: to put things into perspective, "normal" annual mortality in US is about 950 per million, or 80 people per million monthly. 

[Max Rockatansky]

Apparently First Responders are being allowed to skip lines at Costco.  My wife is both I'm the former, so I suppose that's cool...although we don't need anything. 

[mgk920]

then keep the borders closed to keep it from coming back until a vaccine or treatment is developed that allows a full return to normalcy than easing to lighter measures that stay around forever.

Actually, it's more likely other countries will close their borders to the US, given that this country leads the worlds in reported infections.

Made a very important fix for you there.

Is the fact that the USA is the third most populous country on the planet a factor in that statistic?

Mike

[Max Rockatansky]

then keep the borders closed to keep it from coming back until a vaccine or treatment is developed that allows a full return to normalcy than easing to lighter measures that stay around forever.

Actually, it's more likely other countries will close their borders to the US, given that this country leads the worlds in reported infections.

Made a very important fix for you there.

Is the fact that the USA is the third most populous country on the planet a factor in that statistic?

Mike

The fact that NYC and NYS have about 150,000 reported cases is pretty telling that because that is the part of the U.S. that has a population density closest to Europe (at least NYC).  Now at the end of the day the actual fatalities will be a far more accurate statistic at plotting out the spread than reported cases.  Most cases won't ever go reported because people don't know they have it or don't have the symptom severity that would merit a test.  One thing is for sure, dense urban environments are getting hit way harder (which should be no surprise since that model has been something in almost every global pandemic). 

[kalvado]

then keep the borders closed to keep it from coming back until a vaccine or treatment is developed that allows a full return to normalcy than easing to lighter measures that stay around forever.

Actually, it's more likely other countries will close their borders to the US, given that this country leads the worlds in reported infections.

Made a very important fix for you there.

Is the fact that the USA is the third most populous country on the planet a factor in that statistic?

Mike

NYS has more reported cases than any country (other than USA, of course). That can be a result of aggressive testing, though, so not so bad per se.
We're also petty high in death counts, after Italy Spain and France - and still not at plateau in terms of daily deaths - which is a worse sign...

[NWI_Irish96]

then keep the borders closed to keep it from coming back until a vaccine or treatment is developed that allows a full return to normalcy than easing to lighter measures that stay around forever.

Actually, it's more likely other countries will close their borders to the US, given that this country leads the worlds in reported infections.

Made a very important fix for you there.

Is the fact that the USA is the third most populous country on the planet a factor in that statistic?

Mike

Of course the population is a factor, but the fact that we exploded past the other countries in cases and deaths after we saw what was going on there tells us that we responded poorly. 

On January 30, the US confirmed its first person to person transmission, and the same day the World Health Organization declared it a Public Health Emergency.  Those two events should have been enough to trigger a lot of the measures that took until mid to late March to get put into place.

If we had locked down the country in early February, we probably could have limited the loss of life to a couple thousand or less, and we could be getting things back to normal by about now.

[hotdogPi]

India is the second largest country, and it has fewer than 10,000 cases. Indonesia is just behind the US in total population and has under 5,000 cases.

[Max Rockatansky]

then keep the borders closed to keep it from coming back until a vaccine or treatment is developed that allows a full return to normalcy than easing to lighter measures that stay around forever.

Actually, it's more likely other countries will close their borders to the US, given that this country leads the worlds in reported infections.

Made a very important fix for you there.

Is the fact that the USA is the third most populous country on the planet a factor in that statistic?

Mike

Of course the population is a factor, but the fact that we exploded past the other countries in cases and deaths after we saw what was going on there tells us that we responded poorly. 

On January 30, the US confirmed its first person to person transmission, and the same day the World Health Organization declared it a Public Health Emergency.  Those two events should have been enough to trigger a lot of the measures that took until mid to late March to get put into place.

If we had locked down the country in early February, we probably could have limited the loss of life to a couple thousand or less, and we could be getting things back to normal by about now.

But you're talking about measures that haven't been implemented in several generations.  All this talk over the last couple decades about "insert Virus"  coming to get us probably played a bigger factor than is being assumed in why the response was slow. 

[Max Rockatansky]

India is the second largest country, and it has fewer than 10,000 cases. Indonesia is just behind the US in total population and has under 5,000 cases.

Yeah, but how accurate is that?  I still find it hard to believe the 81k cases China is reporting.  The viral spread is probably far greater than is likely assumed and there are probably a lot of countries that will take few measures even if hit hard.  Granted India has the benefit of being barricaded from China by some pretty huge mountain ranges...

[kalvado]

India is the second largest country, and it has fewer than 10,000 cases. Indonesia is just behind the US in total population and has under 5,000 cases.

Are they even testing? (Hint: not nearly as much as US!)

[kalvado]

India is the second largest country, and it has fewer than 10,000 cases. Indonesia is just behind the US in total population and has under 5,000 cases.

Yeah, but how accurate is that?  I still find it hard to believe the 81k cases China is reporting.  The viral spread is probably far greater than is likely assumed and there are probably a lot of countries that will take few measures even if hit hard.  Granted India has the benefit of being barricaded from China by some pretty huge mountain ranges...

China is probably pretty accurate. Well, as accurate as anyone can be with mild symptoms not worthy of testing or seeking doctor help and so not accounted for.

[kalvado]

then keep the borders closed to keep it from coming back until a vaccine or treatment is developed that allows a full return to normalcy than easing to lighter measures that stay around forever.

Actually, it's more likely other countries will close their borders to the US, given that this country leads the worlds in reported infections.

Made a very important fix for you there.

Is the fact that the USA is the third most populous country on the planet a factor in that statistic?

Mike

Of course the population is a factor, but the fact that we exploded past the other countries in cases and deaths after we saw what was going on there tells us that we responded poorly. 

On January 30, the US confirmed its first person to person transmission, and the same day the World Health Organization declared it a Public Health Emergency.  Those two events should have been enough to trigger a lot of the measures that took until mid to late March to get put into place.

If we had locked down the country in early February, we probably could have limited the loss of life to a couple thousand or less, and we could be getting things back to normal by about now.

I would argue that a single 1-page document put out by CDC on February 1st is responsible for most of what we see in US now.

[NWI_Irish96]

India is the second largest country, and it has fewer than 10,000 cases. Indonesia is just behind the US in total population and has under 5,000 cases.

It's incredibly likely that those numbers are underreported, but those are also two countries where there is not a lot of international travel to those countries or by their residents compared to China, Europe and the US.

[kalvado]

India is the second largest country, and it has fewer than 10,000 cases. Indonesia is just behind the US in total population and has under 5,000 cases.

It's incredibly likely that those numbers are underreported, but those are also two countries where there is not a lot of international travel to those countries or by their residents compared to China, Europe and the US.

Per worldmeter, Indonesia administered 14,000 tests, India 146,000 - and US 2.4 million

[Max Rockatansky]

India is the second largest country, and it has fewer than 10,000 cases. Indonesia is just behind the US in total population and has under 5,000 cases.

Yeah, but how accurate is that?  I still find it hard to believe the 81k cases China is reporting.  The viral spread is probably far greater than is likely assumed and there are probably a lot of countries that will take few measures even if hit hard.  Granted India has the benefit of being barricaded from China by some pretty huge mountain ranges...

China is probably pretty accurate. Well, as accurate as anyone can be with mild symptoms not worthy of testing or seeking doctor help and so not accounted for.

I know we talked about it up thread but that really opens the door to China not being the origin point if there is solid accuracy there.  It's sad to say but it is pretty hard to believe what the Chinese government puts out about anything on a humanitarian level, hopefully it is good information this time.  Granted there are a bunch of people around the world that probably are questioning what their public officials have done or told them regarding the current pandemic. 

[kalvado]

India is the second largest country, and it has fewer than 10,000 cases. Indonesia is just behind the US in total population and has under 5,000 cases.

Yeah, but how accurate is that?  I still find it hard to believe the 81k cases China is reporting.  The viral spread is probably far greater than is likely assumed and there are probably a lot of countries that will take few measures even if hit hard.  Granted India has the benefit of being barricaded from China by some pretty huge mountain ranges...

China is probably pretty accurate. Well, as accurate as anyone can be with mild symptoms not worthy of testing or seeking doctor help and so not accounted for.

I know we talked about it up thread but that really opens the door to China not being the origin point if there is solid accuracy there.  It's sad to say but it is pretty hard to believe what the Chinese government puts out about anything on a humanitarian level, hopefully it is good information this time.  Granted there are a bunch of people around the world that probably are questioning what their public officials have done or told them regarding the current pandemic.

You can cross-verify chinese data against different sources - e.g. estimates of infection rate in Wuhan estimate by Imperial college - and things add up.
There is a long twitter chain (is that the best source these days?) on the issue: https://twitter.com/chaosong/status/1247712587728519168 
Looks like reasonable set of arguments..

[ixnay]

It's impressive to me how Washington State went from being, basically, the epicenter, to being just another state. WA is dark on the maps, but not any darker than quite a few other states, and lighter than Michigan, New York, Louisiana, and New Jersey.

Have we started to hit the upper curve? Per day increases in cases seem to be decreasing percentage-wise.

There's an ongoing outbreak at the state prison in Monroe, so expect the numbers to rise again.

It led to an uprising at the prison.

https://www.newser.com/story/289344/state-prison-erupts-after-6-inmates-test-positive.html

ixnay

[ozarkman417]

Missouri just closed all schools for the remainder of the academic year. I do wonder how finals are going to be carried out, if they happen. The problem with online tests is there is no way to prevent cheating.

[US71]

Missouri just closed all schools for the remainder of the academic year. I do wonder how finals are going to be carried out, if they happen. The problem with online tests is there is no way to prevent cheating.

Arkansas has done the same.

[TheGrassGuy]

You can cross-verify chinese data against different sources - e.g. estimates of infection rate in Wuhan estimate by Imperial college - and things add up.

Duh, because the latter is based on the former!

[kalvado]

You can cross-verify chinese data against different sources - e.g. estimates of infection rate in Wuhan estimate by Imperial college - and things add up.

Duh, because the latter is based on the former!

No. There are some very interesting cross-checks.

[jakeroot]

It's impressive to me how Washington State went from being, basically, the epicenter, to being just another state. WA is dark on the maps, but not any darker than quite a few other states, and lighter than Michigan, New York, Louisiana, and New Jersey.

Have we started to hit the upper curve? Per day increases in cases seem to be decreasing percentage-wise.

There's an ongoing outbreak at the state prison in Monroe, so expect the numbers to rise again.

It led to an uprising at the prison.

https://www.newser.com/story/289344/state-prison-erupts-after-6-inmates-test-positive.html

Glad it didn't turn into a full-blown riot where guards start getting hurt.

Weird to hear about a prison riot. Those aren't common...right?