The Census has released its population estimates for 2020

[iowahighways]

After finally weeding out those .pl files, here are my observations of Iowa's census numbers:

• Despite the Des Moines Register calling the city's growth "sluggish", the city of Des Moines' population of 214,133 is an all-time record, breaking the one set in 1960.
• Davenport is back over 100,000 for the first time since the 1980s, at 101,724.
• West Des Moines (68,723) is barely ahead of Ankeny (67,887) for most populous Des Moines suburb. Given Ankeny's phenomenal rate of growth, it will probably overtake WDM by mid-decade.
• On that note, ten of Des Moines' suburbs now have populations over 10,000: Altoona, Ankeny, Clive, Grimes, Johnston, Norwalk, Pleasant Hill, Urbandale, Waukee, and West Des Moines. In 1990 only three suburbs (Ankeny, Urbandale, and WDM) had that many people.
• Meanwhile, Burlington (23,982), Clinton (24,469), and Fort Dodge (24,871) have all dropped below 25,000; Ottumwa (25,529) managed to eke out a small gain. And Keokuk (9,900) has dropped below 10,000 for the first time since the 60s... the 1860s.
• In all, 42 cities have more than 10,000 people, with 26 having more than 20,000 and 11 having more than 50,000.
• Among the new CDP's, the one that caught me by surprise is Kent Estates, with a population of 2,074. Neither the Iowa DOT map nor Google Maps shows it. Wikipedia says it's just outside of Muscatine.
• The Omaha-Council Bluffs MSA is knocking on the door of 1 million, with 967,604. Des Moines remains the largest MSA entirely in Iowa, with 709,466.
• I knew Dallas County was growing rapidly, but didn't think it would flirt with 100,000 (it came just short, with 99,678). Even the county seat of Adel now has 6,153 people. The areas of growth continue to be in central, eastern, and northwest Iowa, with rural counties continuing to decline.
• The smallest incorporated city would have been Pioneer in Humboldt County, population 4, but it disincorporated last year. Le Roy in Decatur County, with 11, is the smallest now.

EDIT: The complete list is online at the Iowa Data Center.

[kkt]

August 12, 1 PM EDT. Put it on your calendar.

Happens to also be my birthday!

Happy birthday, Roadgeekteen!

[NWI_Irish96]

How did NYC get to over 8.8M?  They cracked 8M for the first time in the city's history in 2000 and ISTR that estimates had them shrinking in recent years.



Mike

On the other hand, Loving County, Texas had 82 in 2010, was estimated at 169 in 2019, and counted only 64 in 2020 – it was predicted to more than double, but it went down instead.

How can they get that wrong? They could literally just physically count every person who lives there

Estimates are based on the American Community Survey, which only goes to a percentage of households each year. In a county as small as Loving, likely only 1-2 households were sampled, so an increase in the count in those households would be extrapolated as an increase in the entire county. The process really isn't reliable for populations that small.

[hotdogPi]

Wikipedia list of cities over 100,000 has been updated: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_by_population

[roadman65]

Houston is getting close to overtaking Chicago. With people fleeing NY lately, it won't be long that they become third.

What makes you think they're fleeing to Houston, though? Especially considering that all of the NY counties that lost population are upstate.

There has been a surge in population in the Houston Area for some time. Many New Yorkers are fleeing the high taxes and ether moving to Florida or that part of Texas.  Plus development there attracts people.  Also hen TX SH 99 is completed you can figure on more development along its corridor to warrant more growth and attract more outsiders.

[Rothman]

Houston is getting close to overtaking Chicago. With people fleeing NY lately, it won't be long that they become third.

What makes you think they're fleeing to Houston, though? Especially considering that all of the NY counties that lost population are upstate.

There has been a surge in population in the Houston Area for some time. Many New Yorkers are fleeing the high taxes and ether moving to Florida or that part of Texas.  Plus development there attracts people.  Also hen TX SH 99 is completed you can figure on more development along its corridor to warrant more growth and attract more outsiders.

So...Texas is turning blue.  I don't know if this movement is as clear as you're making it out to be.

[JayhawkCO]

Wikipedia list of cities over 100,000 has been updated: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_by_population

Looks like there's a decent chance that my city enters the top 50 come 2030.

Chris

[Rothman]

Let's face it, the real update we're looking for is for the Top 300 U.S. Cities by Population quiz on Sporcle.

[TXtoNJ]

Houston is getting close to overtaking Chicago. With people fleeing NY lately, it won't be long that they become third.

What makes you think they're fleeing to Houston, though? Especially considering that all of the NY counties that lost population are upstate.

There has been a surge in population in the Houston Area for some time. Many New Yorkers are fleeing the high taxes and ether moving to Florida or that part of Texas.  Plus development there attracts people.  Also hen TX SH 99 is completed you can figure on more development along its corridor to warrant more growth and attract more outsiders.

New Yorkers aren't "fleeing" anything except for high property values driven by real estate speculation (from both capital management companies and foreign investors). Most emigrants from NY/NJ/CT are headed to the Metroplex, due to similar established industries (corporate management, finance).

Houston had all its tri-state relocations in the '70s-'80s when the oil majors moved their headquarters from the Northeast. If anyone from that part of the country is headed down there, it would be retirees/remote workers who want to live in a large house and warm climate close to their kids in Dallas/Austin.

Houston's growth in the past decade has been from energy relocations and secondary services (now significantly slowing), along with foreign immigration owing to its status as a port city.

[Scott5114]

Houston is getting close to overtaking Chicago. With people fleeing NY lately, it won't be long that they become third.

What makes you think they're fleeing to Houston, though? Especially considering that all of the NY counties that lost population are upstate.

There has been a surge in population in the Houston Area for some time. Many New Yorkers are fleeing the high taxes and ether moving to Florida or that part of Texas.  Plus development there attracts people.  Also hen TX SH 99 is completed you can figure on more development along its corridor to warrant more growth and attract more outsiders.

Just because upstate New York is declining and Houston is growing doesn't mean that people are moving from New York to Houston. There are counties in Oklahoma that are losing population too; I think it'd be more likely that those people are moving to Houston than New Yorkers are (given that Houston is a center for the oil industry, and lots of Oklahomans are already employed in the oil industry).

[SP Cook]

And the WSJ today has roughed out the figures and identified the districts that will have to get "smaller"  , which is to say geographically smaller in order to encompass the correct number of people.  The suburbs of Houston, Austin, Dallas, Orlando, Las Vegas, and Atlanta.    The largest increase in population among current districts were TX 22, south suburban Houston, with 40% more people living there now than when it was drawn in 2011; FL 9 , south suburban Orlando; TX 26, Denton County north of Dallas; TX 10, a contorted district running from Austin's edge to Houston's; and TX 31, Austin's northern suburbs.

It reports that virtually all the population growth in the country was in suburbs and exurbs; both urban cores and rural areas lost population.

[kphoger]

On the other hand, Loving County, Texas had 82 in 2010, was estimated at 169 in 2019, and counted only 64 in 2020 – it was predicted to more than double, but it went down instead.

How can they get that wrong? They could literally just physically count every person who lives there

Estimates are based on the American Community Survey, which only goes to a percentage of households each year. In a county as small as Loving, likely only 1-2 households were sampled, so an increase in the count in those households would be extrapolated as an increase in the entire county. The process really isn't reliable for populations that small.

I also wonder if the fickle nature of the oil fracking business has something to do with it too.

[TheHighwayMan3561]

Minnesota:

-The 10-county Twin Cities metro area grew rapidly, Ramsey County (St. Paul) not as much as the others, but still by almost 9%. Exurban counties like Carver and Scott grew the fastest, and the effects could definitely be seen in the 2020 elections for those familiar with what to look for.

-St. Louis County (Duluth) grew by precisely 5 people. I wonder what counties had the the closest net to zero change.

-It was about 50/50 on outstate counties gaining/losing population. What surprised me a bit was Otter Tail County grew by nearly 5% and nearby Becker County by over 8%.

[Scott5114]

The fastest-growing county in Oklahoma is Canadian County (OKC west surburbs). I figured it would be Cleveland (south suburbs) or McClain (south exurbs).

[JayhawkCO]

I can do a snapshot for Colorado.

• 5th fastest growing state, and now 21st most populous overall (passing Minnesota)
• Greeley is the 4th fastest growing metro area
• Denver went from 26th largest city to 19th (Passing Detroit, El Paso, Memphis, Baltimore, Boston, Washington, and Nashville)
• Colorado Springs went from 42nd largest city to 40th (Passing Long Beach and Virginia Beach)
• Aurora went from 56th largest city to 51st (Passing Cleveland, New Orleans, Honolulu, Anaheim and Tampa)
• Fort Collins went from 171st largest city to 156th (Passing Hayward, Bridgeport, Syracuse, Torrance, Kansas City (KS), Paterson, Joliet, Pasadena, Pomona, Salinas, Corona, Palmdale, Rockford, Springfield (MA), and Springfield (MO))
  
• Colorado now has 10 cities with a population greater than 100K (Greeley and Boulder joined the club, and the only states with more are California, Florida, and Texas)
  
• Broomfield County is the fastest growing county in the state (+32.6%) with Weld County not far behind (+30.2%)
• 16 of the 64 counties increased in population by more than 10%
• The least populous county in Colorado changed from Mineral County to Hinsdale County (788 people)
• 16 of the 64 counties declined in population with the worst being Kit Carson County (-14.3%)

Chris

[JayhawkCO]

-St. Louis County (Duluth) grew by precisely 5 people. I wonder what counties had the the closest net to zero change.

Washington County in Colorado grew by 3 people.  There's my entry.

Edit: Yakutat City & Borough in Alaska remained exactly the same (662).

Chris

[Rothman]

I am surprised by Dearborn, MI, which appears to have broken the 100,000 mark to the point where it's in the top 300.

[webny99]

-St. Louis County (Duluth) grew by precisely 5 people. I wonder what counties had the the closest net to zero change.

Upthread I mentioned Warren County, NY, which increased by 30 people. But St. Louis County definitely has that beat, because Warren is also much smaller in total population.

-It was about 50/50 on outstate counties gaining/losing population. What surprised me a bit was Otter Tail County grew by nearly 5% and nearby Becker County by over 8%.

Those are both counties with a good portion of seasonal residents, correct?
I ask because, however surprised you were about Otter Tail and Becker, I was twice as surprised by Hamilton County, NY (the smallest county in the state with a total 2020 population of 5,107). There's simply no way Hamilton County has actually grown by 5% since 2010 while almost every other rural county declined, so there must be something else going on. I can't help but wonder if a number of seasonal residents came back early during Covid, so they were there for the census instead of Florida or wherever. Maybe something similar is going on with the Detroit Lakes region.

[SkyPesos]

I'm surprised at how far off the 2020 estimates were compared to the census (though this is my first time comparing estimate numbers to the coming census, so let me know if stuff like this is normal). Like St Louis County was estimated to lose population from 999k in the 2010 census to 994k in the 2020 estimates, but actually gained about 5k people to 1.004m in the 2020 census counts. This isn't the worst example, just one that actually gained population when a loss was projected that was in my mind.

[kevinb1994]

I'm surprised at how far off the 2020 estimates were compared to the census (though this is my first time comparing estimate numbers to the coming census, so let me know if stuff like this is normal). Like St Louis County was estimated to lose population from 999k in the 2010 census to 994k in the 2020 estimates, but actually gained about 5k people to 1.004m in the 2020 census counts. This isn't the worst example, just one that actually gained population when a loss was projected that was in my mind.

They even moved Jacksonville down a spot. Looks like they managed to fix that (we had moved down to #13 before moving back up to #12).

I was expecting us to move back down to #14, which is where we were in 2000. That didn't happen.

When Jacksonville did the 2010 Census a decade ago, it moved up to #11. That must've felt good (that was before I left New Jersey for Florida, though). Now, if we ever move up to #10 or higher...

Meanwhile, Duval County is now #6 in Florida population-wise, which is interesting because that means that Pinellas County is #7 now. Feels great living in a county with almost a million people (the last time this was the case was in NY). Especially now that the population is more diverse and is more like a minority-majority place. Though, it's still somewhat short of that in actuality. But that's ok.

Moving on to metro areas/TV markets, Metro Jacksonville has moved past that of Greater Milwaukee (we're at #39 now). It's still behind the other three Florida metro areas, though (no way will we ever get to the size and scope of Miami's metropolitan area!). As mentioned in another thread on this forum, Orlando just surpassed Miami in the size of their TV market (makes sense, due to UCF being a powerhouse nowadays). And while Disney World continues to be a victim of their own success, Universal Orlando is in the process of expansion, adding not only new hotels and rides (which is what Disney World seems to be stuck doing), but an actual expansion of their theme park palette over on Sand Lake Road, near the airport (something that had to wait back in the day, due to the Glenn Luther Martin Company having built their old, historic facility in 1957, a catalyst for I-4 construction, before merging with the American-Marietta Corporation in 1961 and then, later, with the Allan Haines Lockheed Corporation in 1995, forming the Allan Haines Lockheed Glenn Luther Martin Corporation).

[webny99]

"People are fleeing NY!" was never a narrative that I believed on any level, and the data released today prove it. If there's been any mass migration out of NYC, it's primarily been since (and possibly during) the 2020 census; and at least some has been to elsewhere in the state.

Except that's literally the truth and it's been so for decades.
[img snipped]

A net loss from domestic migration does not necessarily mean "people are fleeing". For a state that significantly exceeded expectations and grew by 4% over the last decade, while three other states actually lost population, that's a misguided statement at best.

There has been a surge in population in the Houston Area for some time. Many New Yorkers are fleeing the high taxes and ether moving to Florida or that part of Texas.  Plus development there attracts people.  Also hen TX SH 99 is completed you can figure on more development along its corridor to warrant more growth and attract more outsiders.

Just because upstate New York is declining and Houston is growing doesn't mean that people are moving from New York to Houston. There are counties in Oklahoma that are losing population too; I think it'd be more likely that those people are moving to Houston than New Yorkers are (given that Houston is a center for the oil industry, and lots of Oklahomans are already employed in the oil industry).

Yeah, I don't get it. The whole "people are fleeing NY" narrative is based around New York City, right? And that only makes sense because NYC is the largest city in the country, and therefore, if people are fleeing, it could potentially be a lot of people. But NYC's growth since 2010 was actually quite robust, exceeding almost all prior estimates. So if you take NYC out of the picture, you're left with Upstate NY, which is nothing at all like NYC and in fact not a whole lot different than Pennsylvania or Ohio. Population-wise, Upstate NY has about 6 million people, comparable to Wisconsin or Minnesota. So saying that NY's population loss will cause Houston to surpass Chicago is no different than saying MN or WI's population loss will cause Houston to surpass Chicago. But that doesn't make any sense, since rural areas all over the country are losing population, and cities all over the country are growing. There's no evidence that any two specific examples are correlated, not to mention that there are many other factors besides domestic migration at play, including international migration and an aging population.

So if the discussion is about Houston encroaching on Chicago in total population, removing NY from the equation entirely would be a good place to start.

[bing101]

The 2021 Rand McNally Atlas still has Florida at 4th for population.  It looks like 2022 is out (saw a post about this recently) so I'm guessing the ranking swap between NY and FL will be effective in the 2023 edition. 

It's interesting how NY and FL swapped places, because isn't Florida a LOT of transplanted New Yorkers, or is that an old stereotype?

It's has to be an old stereotype at this point. But then again there is an ongoing stereotype of Northern California going to Reno , Austin , Dallas, North Carolina Research Triangle area, Colorado, Oregon and Washington State.  Also there is an ongoing stereotype of Southern California residents moving to Arizona, Las Vegas,  Houston, Atlanta, and Tennessee.

But back to this one I heard of another stereotype that Florida has ex Venezuela and Cuban residents or refugees in the article.

[Scott5114]

The 2021 Rand McNally Atlas still has Florida at 4th for population.  It looks like 2022 is out (saw a post about this recently) so I'm guessing the ranking swap between NY and FL will be effective in the 2023 edition. 

It's interesting how NY and FL swapped places, because isn't Florida a LOT of transplanted New Yorkers, or is that an old stereotype?

It's has to be an old stereotype at this point. But then again there is an ongoing stereotype of Northern California going to Reno , Austin , Dallas, North Carolina Research Triangle area, Colorado, Oregon and Washington State.  Also there is an ongoing stereotype of Southern California residents moving to Arizona, Las Vegas,  Houston, Atlanta, and Tennessee.

There was a video being circulated on the OKCTalk forums at one point of a Bay Area news station doing a "wow would you look at that" story on a family that sold their Bay Area home to move to Guthrie, Oklahoma. Of course, they tied it into the larger "people are fleeing CA in droves" narrative, but I guess Oklahoma as a destination was perceived as unusual enough by the Bay Area press that it was considered worth writing a story over.

[plain]

I see Roanoke, VA came in at #326 (last for cities over 100k pop. and first time since 1980), barely making it over by 11 people. Congratulations Roanoke.

Montgomery is about to overtake Birmingham as AL's largest city*, but only because Birmingham is losing people at a faster rate than Montgomery 

*EDIT: 2nd largest, I forgot about Huntsville.

[bandit957]

Every census since at least 1990, the census has put out a text file listing every incorporated place and CDP, along with population, number of housing units, latitude, and longitude.

Anyone know if they have this out yet, or where I can find it?