The Census has released its population estimates for 2020

[kphoger]

And the thing is, there's no reason online education has to be a disaster.

Is there any good online solution for special ed?  Step one for a lot of those issues is physical proximity:  for the teacher to physically get down to the student's level and make eye contact.

[SP Cook]

So I found the Census Bureau's map, by county, of population change.  And I have some questions and some observations. 

- The map shows a general small decline in most rural counties, but some rural counties are holding their own and even growing a bit.  Much of northern New England, and a few counties in northern NY.  Much of south eastern PA, like Lancaster County and around that.  The Great Valley of Virginia.  Almost all of TN, except the western edge.  Most of the Mountain West and the inland Pacific Northwest.  Much of WI and MN.

- Likewise some rural places are really emptying fast.  The coalfields of WV, KY and VA, obviously.  This I get, but someone explain a few others.    The area between the fall line and the shore in NC lost a lot.  Never that wealthy of a place, but nothing much has changed in 10 years, some of these counties lost upwards of 15%.  Southwest GA.   Most of the Mississippi River counties from MO and IL south.   Again, never that big or prosperous of a place, but no real economic collapse there either.    Much of the Texas panhandle (oil issues?).  Southeastern MO.  This one really is baffling, as it has a climate and topography very similar to the rural parts of TN that are growing. 

- Apparently the biggest loser is Alexander County, IL, -36%.  Now that is only 3000 people, but what happened there?  Plant shut down?  Flood? 

[kphoger]

- Apparently the biggest loser is Alexander County, IL, -36%.  Now that is only 3000 people, but what happened there?  Plant shut down?  Flood? 

One big hit was that a public housing complex in Cairo was falling apart, so it was shut down in 2017.  About 200 families lost their homes.

[bandit957]

- Apparently the biggest loser is Alexander County, IL, -36%.  Now that is only 3000 people, but what happened there?  Plant shut down?  Flood? 

One big hit was that a public housing complex in Cairo was falling apart, so it was shut down in 2017.  About 200 families lost their homes.

I heard the whole town of Cairo was falling apart.

Lately the whole state of Illinois has been falling apart.

[kphoger]

Lately the whole state of Illinois has been falling apart.

I think you mean it's going downhill.

[NWI_Irish96]

- Apparently the biggest loser is Alexander County, IL, -36%.  Now that is only 3000 people, but what happened there?  Plant shut down?  Flood? 

One big hit was that a public housing complex in Cairo was falling apart, so it was shut down in 2017.  About 200 families lost their homes.

I heard the whole town of Cairo was falling apart.

Lately the whole state of Illinois has been falling apart.

Houses in my town are selling like hotcakes (are hotcakes really a top-selling item?) and most are people escaping Illinois taxes.

[kphoger]

Cairo has been on the decline since before the turn of the century.  The turn of the 20th century, that is.

[golden eagle]

Urban areas and especially college towns are damn lucky the census was conducted in April 2020, instead of being conducted right now.

Explain Jackson County, IL, home to Southern Illinois University. It went from over 60K to less than 53K. Same with McDonough County (Western Illinois U), going from 32.6 to 27.2K. DeKalb County (Nothern Illinois U) went from 105K to 100.4K. I guess it could be possible that many students left because of the previous governor's budget decisions.

[Daniel Fiddler]

Urban areas and especially college towns are damn lucky the census was conducted in April 2020, instead of being conducted right now.

Explain Jackson County, IL, home to Southern Illinois University. It went from over 60K to less than 53K. Same with McDonough County (Western Illinois U), going from 32.6 to 27.2K. DeKalb County (Nothern Illinois U) went from 105K to 100.4K. I guess it could be possible that many students left because of the previous governor's budget decisions.

I don't live in Illinois but I would leave Tennessee and move to Florida due to some of my governor's decisions, not relating to the budget though.

[golden eagle]

- Apparently the biggest loser is Alexander County, IL, -36%.  Now that is only 3000 people, but what happened there?  Plant shut down?  Flood? 

One big hit was that a public housing complex in Cairo was falling apart, so it was shut down in 2017.  About 200 families lost their homes.

I heard the whole town of Cairo was falling apart.

Lately the whole state of Illinois has been falling apart.

I drove through Cairo back in 2015. It's in even worse shape than the last time I saw it in the 80s. So sad to see a town at the junction of two major rivers like it is.

[Max Rockatansky]

- Apparently the biggest loser is Alexander County, IL, -36%.  Now that is only 3000 people, but what happened there?  Plant shut down?  Flood? 

One big hit was that a public housing complex in Cairo was falling apart, so it was shut down in 2017.  About 200 families lost their homes.

I heard the whole town of Cairo was falling apart.

Lately the whole state of Illinois has been falling apart.

I drove through Cairo back in 2015. It's in even worse shape than the last time I saw it in the 80s. So sad to see a town at the junction of two major rivers like it is.

On it's way to becoming a full on ghost town.  It reminds me a lot of the present state of the mostly ruined Goldfield, NV (once the largest the community in the state and similar in size to Cairo in it's prime).

[kphoger]

Urban areas and especially college towns are damn lucky the census was conducted in April 2020, instead of being conducted right now.

Explain Jackson County, IL, home to Southern Illinois University. It went from over 60K to less than 53K. Same with McDonough County (Western Illinois U), going from 32.6 to 27.2K. DeKalb County (Nothern Illinois U) went from 105K to 100.4K. I guess it could be possible that many students left because of the previous governor's budget decisions.

86% of Illinois counties lost population.  Imagine what the loss in the counties you mentioned would have been if the census had been taken one year later.

Carbondale's mayor said six months ago:  "Our situation is typical of rural America. Towns that used to be market towns are now drying up, disappearing. The possibilities of keeping young people there are difficult."   Notably, coal mines aren't the huge employers they used to be.

[webny99]

86% of Illinois counties lost population.

How many of the remaining 14 are in Chicagoland? I'd think it has to be half or more. 

I'm interested in the fact that the Chicago area seems to have grown slightly (and some counties, such as Grundy and Kendall, more substantially) and yet that wasn't enough to lead the state to any population growth. Is rural Illinois really that much worse off than rural areas of other states, or is it just a case of mid-size metros not growing like they are in other states?

Imagine what the loss in the counties you mentioned would have been if the census had been taken one year later.

I wouldn't assume that those populations shrunk a lot further between April 2020 and April 2021. Some students may have returned by April 2021, and this stuff is quirky to begin with.

[webny99]

So I found the Census Bureau's map, by county, of population change.  And I have some questions and some observations. 

- The map shows a general small decline in most rural counties, but some rural counties are holding their own and even growing a bit.  Much of northern New England, and a few counties in northern NY.  Much of south eastern PA, like Lancaster County and around that. 

Outside of the Albany area, northern New York had only two counties with any growth at all, and it was minimal. Jefferson County (Watertown) grew by 0.4%, and Warren County (north of Albany) grew by just 30 people (0.05%). Saratoga County saw decent growth, but it's mostly suburban.

Also, much of southeastern PA including Lancaster County is more suburban/exurban than rural. Lancaster County is right between Chester County (Philly suburbs) and Dauphin County (Harrisburg), and it even has its own MSA.

Southeastern MO.  This one really is baffling, as it has a climate and topography very similar to the rural parts of TN that are growing. 

The areas of Tennessee that are growing are mostly in and around the cities (Nashville, Knoxville, Chattanooga, and to a lesser extent Memphis). Much of southeastern Missouri is in the Ozarks and it's lot more remote than those places. It doesn't have any major population centers to fuel population growth.

[Scott5114]

Ozarks are more SWMO than SEMO. SEMO is more like the Arkansas side of the Mississippi Valley–flat, low population, no real growth driver.

[webny99]

Ozarks are more SWMO than SEMO. SEMO is more like the Arkansas side of the Mississippi Valley–flat, low population, no real growth driver.

I'll admit I hesitated before mentioning the Ozarks, but I figured Poplar Bluff couldn't be called "Gateway to the Ozarks" for nothing

[Daniel Fiddler]

Memphis is growing very slowly if not almost stagnant.  Nashville is booming, particularly Rutherford and Williamson counties.  It's only been during my lifetime that metropolitan Nashville passed Memphis.  Now Nashville has 2.1 million!  Memphis has only 1.3 million by comparison, and 25% - 30% of that is actually in Mississippi, not Tennessee, and a very small portion (5% maybe?) in Arkansas.  A little less than 1 million (I think 950k) live in Shelby county.

I am sure Nashville's economy is at least twice the size of Memphis's, and would not be shocked if Knoxville has as large an economy as Memphis even though it's smaller due to Sevier County's tourism industry.

[webny99]

Memphis is growing very slowly if not almost stagnant.  Nashville is booming, particularly Rutherford and Williamson counties.  It's only been during my lifetime that metropolitan Nashville passed Memphis.  Now Nashville has 2.1 million!  Memphis has only 1.3 million by comparison, and 25% - 30% of that is actually in Mississippi, not Tennessee, and a very small portion (5% maybe?) in Arkansas.  A little less than 1 million (I think 950k) live in Shelby county.

Shelby County is fairly stagnant, with just 0.2% growth in the 2010's. But Fayette County did see decent growth, with 9.3%.
It is kind of ironic that DeSoto County, MS is the fastest-growing county in the Memphis region with a 14.9% increase, and yet Mississippi as a whole lost population.

But then Mississippi is just a bit confusing in general. Hinds (Jackson) lost population, yet the suburban counties, Madison and Rankin, more than made up for it. Then you've got random cases like Lamar County, where a 15% increase doesn't make much sense. And then of course all of the counties along the Gulf Coast grew in population, so it seems strange to end up with a net loss in population. But I guess the consistent losses elsewhere in the state (including several counties with double digit losses) were just too much to overcome.

[Daniel Fiddler]

Memphis is growing very slowly if not almost stagnant.  Nashville is booming, particularly Rutherford and Williamson counties.  It's only been during my lifetime that metropolitan Nashville passed Memphis.  Now Nashville has 2.1 million!  Memphis has only 1.3 million by comparison, and 25% - 30% of that is actually in Mississippi, not Tennessee, and a very small portion (5% maybe?) in Arkansas.  A little less than 1 million (I think 950k) live in Shelby county.

Shelby County is fairly stagnant, with just 0.2% growth in the 2010's. But Fayette County did see decent growth, with 9.3%.
It is kind of ironic that DeSoto County, MS is the fastest-growing county in the Memphis region with a 14.9% increase, and yet Mississippi as a whole lost population.

But then Mississippi is just a bit confusing in general. Hinds (Jackson) lost population, yet the suburban counties, Madison and Rankin, more than made up for it. Then you've got random cases like Lamar County, where a 15% increase doesn't make much sense. And then of course all of the counties along the Gulf Coast grew in population, so it seems strange to end up with a net loss in population. But I guess the consistent losses elsewhere in the state (including several counties with double digit losses) were just too much to overcome.

Indeed.  And I feel I-269 will further contribute to Desoto County's growth, much like I-840 did for Rutherford and Williamson.

[vdeane]

So I found the Census Bureau's map, by county, of population change.  And I have some questions and some observations. 

- The map shows a general small decline in most rural counties, but some rural counties are holding their own and even growing a bit.  Much of northern New England, and a few counties in northern NY.  Much of south eastern PA, like Lancaster County and around that. 

Outside of the Albany area, northern New York had only two counties with any growth at all, and it was minimal. Jefferson County (Watertown) grew by 0.4%, and Warren County (north of Albany) grew by just 30 people (0.05%). Saratoga County saw decent growth, but it's mostly suburban.

Also, much of southeastern PA including Lancaster County is more suburban/exurban than rural. Lancaster County is right between Chester County (Philly suburbs) and Dauphin County (Harrisburg), and it even has its own MSA.

Southeastern MO.  This one really is baffling, as it has a climate and topography very similar to the rural parts of TN that are growing. 

The areas of Tennessee that are growing are mostly in and around the cities (Nashville, Knoxville, Chattanooga, and to a lesser extent Memphis). Much of southeastern Missouri is in the Ozarks and it's lot more remote than those places. It doesn't have any major population centers to fuel population growth.

And both Warren and Jefferson Counties have metro areas large enough to have their own MPO (Glens Falls and Watertown, respectively).

[webny99]

On the subject of Mississippi, it's kind of interesting to see how a state's change in housing units tracks with the change in population (see here).

Mississippi must have one of the widest gaps, with a 0.2% decrease in population but 3.5% increase in housing units.
My home state of New York tracks a lot more closely, with 4.2% and 4.7% respectively.

And West Virginia somehow had a 3% decrease in housing units (tracking closely with the 3.2% decrease in population). I'm not sure exactly how the Census Bureau tracks/estimates housing units, but there must be a lot of abandoned/dilapidated homes in rural West Virginia that no longer qualify.

[SP Cook]

And West Virginia somehow had a 3% decrease in housing units (tracking closely with the 3.2% decrease in population).

Correct.  While the stereotypical "coal camp"  town is really a thing, this is just one form, and the minority form, of housing in SW WV.  Much of WV, obviously, is unfit for farming or even building more than a couple of houses.  Consequently much of the surface belongs to a handful of timber companies.  People would buy a parcel from the timber company, scape it off flat or flat ish and put a house, or more commonly later on, a trailer or "double wide"  on the property.  Much of these types of places have just been abandoned and reclaimed by nature.

For one example, Logan County, which has 40% of the population it had in the 1950s, is defined as having an "acute housing shortage"  by the FmHA. 

[NWI_Irish96]

On the subject of Mississippi, it's kind of interesting to see how a state's change in housing units tracks with the change in population (see here).

Mississippi must have one of the widest gaps, with a 0.2% decrease in population but 3.5% increase in housing units.
My home state of New York tracks a lot more closely, with 4.2% and 4.7% respectively.

And West Virginia somehow had a 3% decrease in housing units (tracking closely with the 3.2% decrease in population). I'm not sure exactly how the Census Bureau tracks/estimates housing units, but there must be a lot of abandoned/dilapidated homes in rural West Virginia that no longer qualify.

There is a pre-census operation called address canvassing. Each census block has a list of housing units from the previous census, and that list gets updated by having people go out into the field to update that list. An abandoned structure that has become unlivable would be removed from the list.

[kphoger]

86% of Illinois counties lost population.

How many of the remaining 14 are in Chicagoland? I'd think it has to be half or more. 

I'm interested in the fact that the Chicago area seems to have grown slightly (and some counties, such as Grundy and Kendall, more substantially) and yet that wasn't enough to lead the state to any population growth. Is rural Illinois really that much worse off than rural areas of other states, or is it just a case of mid-size metros not growing like they are in other states?

Including Kendall and Grundy counties, Chicagoland grew by about 149,000.

The entire rest of the state combined lost about 167,000.

Bloomington and Champaign grew, but Decatur and Peoria and Springfield declined.

Interestingly, a few southern counties did grow:  Johnson (Vienna), Williamson (Marion), Effingham.

[webny99]

Here's an interesting visual:


(Just realized Scott5114 posted something similar in reply# 181. I actually like his better... but oh well... now we've got two versions )