Risk Aversion

[abefroman329]

Interesting.

I had heard that some clinics, if a person came in with flu-like symptoms, were testing for COVID but then, if the test was negative, sending him or her home without actually testing for the flu.  This was purported to be one reason flu cases were supposedly way down last year.

Any truth to that?

What I heard is that flu cases were down because the same measures that lessened the spread of COVID also lessened the spread of the flu. 

At the end of 2018, I went to urgent care with flu-like symptoms and they said that they saved their flu tests for higher-risk patients, so they just gave me a prescription for Tamiflu and sent me on my way.

[Max Rockatansky]

I mean this in the nicest way possible, but you're both wrong - you had side effects from the vaccination.  If I get a flu shot and my arm is sore, that's a side effect of the shot; it's not a medical diagnosis of...sore arm.

I totally get it.  I'm just saying that most people use the word "sick" to mean there's something physically affecting their body.  My side-effects from the COVID booster shot were actually worse than my symptoms the first time I had the flu (for which I was indeed tested), so it seems strange to me to say I was sick from influenza but not sick from the COVID booster.  I understand why you would say that, but it's not the way I use the word "sick".

I'm fairly used to getting regular vaccinations given I'm around DOD facilities.  To that end, I thought it was odd that so many people were surprised that they might feel sickly or sore or receiving a vaccine.  I don't know, none of those complaints really seemed all that newsworthy to me.

[webny99]

...the shot has proven to be so ineffective at preventing people from getting the virus.

Yes, but it reduces if not eliminates the chance that you'll become very sick when you do get it. I had heard that many times, but now after having had it along with several family members and close contacts, I have first-hand evidence that it's true.

And I did say when instead of if intentionally - if you haven't had covid already (which you may have, if you've had any cold/flu symptoms and not been tested), it will happen eventually. Trying to go through life without getting covid will soon be like trying to go through life without getting the flu, to the extent that it's not that way already. Basically, it's going to be next to impossible to avoid. And age is another risk factor, which I also have first-hand evidence of (it's worse the older you are) so make of that what you will.

[kphoger]

I'm fairly used to getting regular vaccinations given I'm around DOD facilities.  To that end, I thought it was odd that so many people were surprised that they might feel sickly or sore or receiving a vaccine.  I don't know, none of those complaints really seemed all that newsworthy to me.

It was less newsworthy, more of a talking point for those of us who had gotten "stuck".  Especially because so many of us were getting the shots right around the same time.  It was a shared experience we could talk about.

The Sacajawea dollar in 2000 was intended as the first step in a transition to eliminating the $1 bill.

That plan was blocked by the senator from Massachusetts, where the company that makes the currency paper is located. Now it is illegal for the BEP to change the $1 bill in any way (which is also why its design doesn't match any of the other bills).

But could they cut production down to, say, 1000 bills a year and then mint gazillions of dollar coins?

They would probably object to that if that was the only thing, but if they switched from making a whole bunch of $1 bills to making a whole bunch of $2 bills (with $1 coins by the Mint), they would probably be fine with it.

I would totally be fine with that too.  I prefer dollar coins and two-dollar bills.  It drives me nuts when my wife is getting ready for a vendor event and sends me to the bank to break large bills into smaller ones, because I come back with as many two-dollar bills and dollar coins as the tellers had in their drawers.

[webny99]

I know there are some who would say that not taking the shot was a risky decision, but I will be honest and say I still don't trust the vaccine to be free of long-term effects ... I would venture to say that taking the shot was riskier than not taking it, especially since the shot has proven to be so ineffective at preventing people from getting the virus.

...

But it sounds to me like you were actually making what you considered to be the safer choice.  People can tell you it wasn't actually the safer choice, but that isn't my point.  The point is that–even if you were erroneous in believing you made the safer choice–safety was still your motivation (at least, if you're being honest with yourself and with us about your motivation).

In contrast, I know plenty of unvaccinated people for whom safety was not their motivation.  I know plenty of people who simply considered the risk of remaining unvaccinated to be small enough:  that is, even without thinking the vaccine was riskier than the virus itself, they still chose not to get vaccinated–which means they actually made what they considered to be the riskier choice.

I could be wrong, but I suspect "safety" was brought up much more out of contrarianism than conviction.

[Scott5114]

I know it's been discussed before, but as long as prices can end up in figures not divisible by five, I do not favor the abolition of the one-cent coin. if I buy something that costs $3.86, then I don't want to give the store any more than the cost. Why should I pay $3.90 and let them keep the profit?

Places that round to the nearest five cents round whichever way is closer. $3.86 would round down to $3.85, not up to $3.90.

This.  You would pay $3.85, and you would keep the profit, not the business.

Besides which, you're already rounding anyway as it is.  If you buy a Dr Pepper for $1.50 and the tax rate is 7%, you don't actually pay the store $1.605.  No, you pay the store $1.61, and they *gasp* keep the profit!

But, if the person behind you buys a pair of sunglasses for $11.89, she doesn't actually pay the store $12.7223.  No, she pays the store $12.72, and she keeps the profit.

Maybe we should bring the half-cent back for H.B.'s benefit.


Fun fact, when it was eliminated in 1857, it was worth about 15¢ in today's money.

In case anyone is wondering, the production cost is the same for $1 bills as for $2 bills.  In fact, they're listed together.

The $2 bill is the most fascinating unit of U.S. currency, because it's extremely common and yet everyone swears up and down that it's rare, so it has some very erratic circulation patterns. A lot of times people will get a $2, think it's rare, hang onto it for decades...and then eventually somehow it gets kicked back into circulation. If you call up a bank ahead of time, you can often talk them into ordering $2s by the strap (100 bills) for you. These are incredibly fun to go through. Sometimes, you get 100 crisp, never-before-circulated bills in sequential serial order. Sometimes you get a hundred bills dated 1976, and that's where the real fun is; you'll find stuff like July 4, 1976 postmarks and birthday messages from 1984 and stuff like that. A few times I've even run across United States Notes from the 1960s with red serial numbers and seals (and a totally different design on the back showing Monticello).

Because of these erratic circulation patterns, it has really erratic print runs, too. Lots of bills printed in Series 1976 (Neff-Simon)...then nothing until Series 1995 (Withrow-Rubin). They skipped 1999 (Withrow-Summers) and 2001 (Marin-O'Neill), but came back back-to-back in 2003 (Marin-Snow) and 2003A (Cabral-Snow), skipped 2006 (Cabral-Paulson), but hit both the Rios series (2009 with Geithner and 2013 with Lew). Skipped 2017 (Carranza-Mnuchin) but hit 2017A (also Carranza-Mnuchin but with different inks, which apparently necessitated a series change for some reason; maybe they needed to redo all the plates or something).

[jeffandnicole]

I would totally be fine with that too.  I prefer dollar coins and two-dollar bills.  It drives me nuts when my wife is getting ready for a vendor event and sends me to the bank to break large bills into smaller ones, because I come back with as many two-dollar bills and dollar coins as the tellers had in their drawers.

Why would you tick off her customers with them?

[Scott5114]

I would totally be fine with that too.  I prefer dollar coins and two-dollar bills.  It drives me nuts when my wife is getting ready for a vendor event and sends me to the bank to break large bills into smaller ones, because I come back with as many two-dollar bills and dollar coins as the tellers had in their drawers.

Why would you tick off her customers with them?

If anyone gets ticked off by getting a $2 bill, they deserve to be ticked off, because they are stupid.

[wxfree]

I'm fully in favor of getting stopping production of pennies.  I wasn't for a long time, but in the past few years that changed.  The basic reason is inflation (and I came to that conclusion before the recent bout of inflation started).  At one time, I would stop to pick up a penny on the ground.  Today, I won't.  I treat that piece of money like actual garbage, except that I might stop to pick up garbage if there's a place nearby to put it.

As far as I know, no one is talking about recalling all the pennies and destroying them.  They're just considering not making new ones.  There would still be an enormous number of them in circulation, and they last for decades.  There would not be any shortages in the short term, and the value of pennies keeps going down.  Electronic payments could still be conducted in any number of cents even if there are no pennies.

Even if prices are adjusted to be divisible by 5 cents, there would be no reason to change the price of everything.  Only the total of all of the items and services, plus the sales tax, would need to be divisible by nickels.  You wouldn't risk losing 2 cents on every item, at most you would lose 2.5 cents on an entire transaction.  This is just like gas stations still using tenths of cents in their prices.  The fact that we don't have a coin for that doesn't mean they can't price it that way and then round the total.  (By the way, I'd love for Walmart to give another tenth of a cent off at their gas stations, with prices ending in 32.8 cents instead of 32.9.  It would mean almost nothing, but it would show their devotion to keeping prices low.)

I'm also in favor of using dollar coins, and even two dollar coins.

[Scott5114]

I still stop and pick up pennies when I see them to toss in my change jar. I don't bother taking them out of the house to spend them, though (which is true of all change). They do still add up. I usually cash the change jar in when it hits around $20, and of that, usually between 50¢ and $1 is pennies. A 5% increase in the size of my deposit is nothing to scoff at.

I see way less change on the ground in general than I did when I was a kid.

[Rothman]

I will gladly take pennies from all on here that do not want theirs.

[kphoger]

I could be wrong, but I suspect "safety" was brought up much more out of contrarianism than conviction.

I don't assume that.  A lot of people were concerned about unknown long-term side-effects of the vaccines.  And that kind of made sense for, say, a few months.  Then, after a year and a half of no long-term side-effects showing up, some people just kept thinking they might at some point.  That's misguided thinking, but it isn't contrarianism.

I would totally be fine with that too.  I prefer dollar coins and two-dollar bills.  It drives me nuts when my wife is getting ready for a vendor event and sends me to the bank to break large bills into smaller ones, because I come back with as many two-dollar bills and dollar coins as the tellers had in their drawers.

Why would you tick off her customers with them?

Her customers weren't ticked off.  Every customer I've given a $2 bill to as change has been excited to receive it, sometimes immediately giving it to her child to keep.  And most every customer I've given a dollar coin to as change has been at least pleasantly surprised.

I will gladly take pennies from all on here that do not want theirs.

Can I mail them to you COD, or will you be coming by to pick them up?

Maybe we should bring the half-cent back for H.B.'s benefit.

Fun fact, when it was eliminated in 1857, it was worth about 15¢ in today's money.

I've heard people argue against getting rid of the penny by bringing up Benjamin Franklin's famous line.

Fun fact:  When Benjamin Franklin wrote "A penny saved is a penny got" in 1758, a penny had the purchasing power of 43 cents in today's money.  So really, if it's Ben Franklin's penny you're concerned about, then you're not actually concerned about anything less valuable than a quarter today.

[Max Rockatansky]

I will gladly take pennies from all on here that do not want theirs.

We're you planning on buying a calzone with them?

[US 89]

I don't use cash much anymore, but on the rare occasion I do, I find that a lot of places already round to the nearest nickel. If I'm owed $1.09 in change, nine times out of ten I'll get a one dollar bill and a dime. I've even seen this from some self checkout machines. The penny can die and nobody would notice.

I'm all for $1 coins replacing bills, too. A dollar right now has the same value as a quarter did in 1979, and nobody was wishing they had 25-cent bills back then...

[abefroman329]

That's misguided thinking, but it isn't contrarianism.

Considering the author, yes, it's contrarianism.

[kphoger]

That's misguided thinking, but it isn't contrarianism.

Considering the author, yes, it's contrarianism.

Possibly.  Which is why I said...

(at least, if you're being honest with yourself and with us about your motivation)

I wouldn't have put that part in there if it hadn't crossed my mind.  But, remembering previous conversations on this forum about it in the past, I do think there's a very good likelihood that he was simply operating a misguided understanding of the vaccines' safety–an understanding likely fueled by bias confirmation (community, media, or both).

[webny99]

I don't use cash much anymore, but on the rare occasion I do, I find that a lot of places already round to the nearest nickel. If I'm owed $1.09 in change, nine times out of ten I'll get a one dollar bill and a dime.

Yep, I've received rounded change (in my favor) several times. Mostly when I don't have some combination of coins that would make easier change.

On one occasion, the coins I had weren't useful for whatever the amount was, so when I paid an even dollar amount and got change back in my favor, I put the coins I had in their tip jar.

[abefroman329]

I remember being strongly in favor of a commonly-circulated dollar coin after spending a few months in England in 2000, but now I can't remember why.  I believe it had something to do with the ease of using them in vending machines and such, but many accept credit cards now, so it's kind of a moot point.

[webny99]

That's misguided thinking, but it isn't contrarianism.

Considering the author, yes, it's contrarianism.

Possibly.  Which is why I said...

(at least, if you're being honest with yourself and with us about your motivation)

I wouldn't have put that part in there if it hadn't crossed my mind.  But, remembering previous conversations on this forum about it in the past, I do think there's a very good likelihood that he was simply operating a misguided understanding of the vaccines' safety–an understanding likely fueled by bias confirmation (community, media, or both).

Not to continue this rabbit hole, but as you mentioned, many people who didn't get the vaccine thought that might be the riskier choice, but did so regardless. No one would have assumed safety was part of the reasoning for not getting it, that's why bringing up safety seemed like more of a "well actually" counterpoint that wasn't necessarily all that relevant to the argument for getting it or not.

[Scott5114]

There are plenty of people who did or did not get the vaccine based on their favorite tie-wearing dipshit telling them to get it or not get it.

[kphoger]

There are plenty of people who did or did not get the vaccine based on their favorite tie-wearing dipshit telling them to get it or not get it.

I have a former co-worker who flat-out refused to get the vaccine because government figureheads kept telling us to.  I think I remember reading that the number of Americans who fall into that category number in the double-digit percentage points.  He eventually did get one shot, but only because his wife was a lot more nervous about the disease than he was, and–as he said in his own words–he loves his wife more than he hates the government telling him what to do.

[Big John]

I'm all for $1 coins replacing bills, too. A dollar right now has the same value as a quarter did in 1979, and nobody was wishing they had 25-cent bills back then...

In 1979, the new SBA dollar coin came out and was deeply criticized for too closely resembling the quarter. 

[kphoger]

I'm all for $1 coins replacing bills, too. A dollar right now has the same value as a quarter did in 1979, and nobody was wishing they had 25-cent bills back then...

In 1979, the new SBA dollar coin came out and was deeply criticized for too closely resembling the quarter. 

...which is ironic, considering people's main complaint about the Eisenhower dollar coin, which it replaced, was that it was too big/heavy.  So the SBA was smaller and lighter, and people complained that it was too much like the quarter.  Well, yeah, go figure.

[Takumi]

I recently had some teenagers give me a SBA dollar thinking it was a quarter. They had no idea what it was until I pointed it out.

[webny99]

probably 50%? of the population has had covid at this point

Only 85 million cases in the U.S., so nowhere close to 50%.

Recorded cases, OK.  But that's not the same thing.
...

That's an overstatement of the paper's method.  They derived those percentages from samples, rather than direct detection.
...

Still, all of that makes me more certain 50% of the population has had it at some point since early 2020. Given my symptoms, I'm certain many people have had it and not known it ...  And even then, my understanding is it wouldn't be recorded unless you self-report... which I doubt many people do anymore.

An interesting and timely article from FiveThirtyEight on the subject of Covid reporting and forecasting, including the increasing uncertainty surrounding case count: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/partly-cloudy-with-a-75-percent-chance-of-covid-exposure/