Risk Aversion

[CoreySamson]

I kind of wanted to weigh in on this debate (hopefully without it getting too heated!)

And the mRNA vaccines (Pfizer and Moderna) have no ill effects, contrary to what you claim.

I'm not sure about that. There are documented correlations between the Pfizer vaccine and myocarditis in men from 16-39 years old from a study done in Israel:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-022-10928-z
I'm not saying that the vaccine caused the myocarditis, but it is interesting to note the correlation.

Also, a study done by the University of California found that the risk of vaccine-caused myocarditis in 12-17 year old boys was higher than their risk of being hospitalized from COVID-19:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.30.21262866v1
This study is about a year old, so this was during Delta, but given Omicron's relative mildness, I would guess that the results would be similar if carried out today.


These studies and many anecdotal stories I've seen regarding the issue have convinced me not to get the shot. Also not helping the vaccine's cause is the fact that my family and heritage has had many heart problems over the years and a close family member of mine died from a heart condition right before COVID started, so I don't want anything that could potentially harm my heart. Of course my heart may be perfectly fine, but I still don't want to take a risk on that.

There are plenty of people who did or did not get the vaccine based on their favorite tie-wearing dipshit telling them to get it or not get it.

That's a very valid point. I know some people who acted like that, but I tried to not let other people influence my decision not to get it. I had plenty of people in my life that got the vaccine and encouraged me to get it, namely my senior pastor, youth pastor, and both sets of grandparents. Don't get me wrong, I am no anti-vaxxer (at least in the pre-2020 meaning of the word!). Vaccines are generally the most effective and safe form of medicine available to mankind, and it is truly a miracle that we have them (and no, they do not cause autism. That is absolute hogwash).

Even then, I simply waited after vaccines became available to see whether getting the vaccine was, in fact, the safest option for me, and I feel that I have made the smartest and safest choice for me in not getting it. Much like how hbelkins made his choice based on what he felt was safest for him, I believe that I've tried to make the choices that benefited the most.

[Rothman]

I find the idea that a layman individual to be able to ascertain the state of the art of research and be their own doctor -- COVID vaccinations related or not -- to be particularly laughable.  "I read a couple of articles that confirmed my desire not to get a vaccine" is what that mentality boils down to and is a method of risk aversion founded upon the shaky ground of selection bias.

[hbelkins]

Two things I've never had:

• A flu shot
• The flu

I will walk that back a bit by saying that in my memory, I don't recall ever having the flu. I certainly didn't have it as a teenager or as an adult.

I can be well assured that I've never had covid because I have never had any of the classic symptoms. I've had some cold and allergy symptoms since it first emerged on the scene, but no fevers, no loss of taste or smell, or any of that. The only illness I've really had in the past two years was a nasty sinus infection back in February.

And I still pick up pennies off the ground. Money's money.

[Rothman]

Fun thing now is that they're linking COVID to psychotic disorders.  Going to be a crazy world...

[Max Rockatansky]

Fun thing now is that they're linking COVID to psychotic disorders.  Going to be a crazy world...

Wasn't there a similar link with leaded gasoline during the mid-20th century?

[NWI_Irish96]

There has been a growing anti-vaccine sentiment since long before COVID. There was a 1998 paper published in England liking the MMR vaccine to autism. It's been debunked thousands of times over and even the publisher retracted it. None of that mattered. The fraction of the population that loves to gobble up conspiracy theories had taken it and run with it.

Most of those same people are the ones who bought into the Qanon stuff and later on the stolen election stuff, so they were more than ripe to get on board with any of a number of false narratives about the COVID vaccine.

Just today a Congresswoman from Georgia (I won't name her but you can probably guess which one) complained on Twitter about a tweet from an obvious parody account (the name Dr Lyle P Lysol should have been a dead giveaway even if you didn't read the profile noting that it's tweets were made up information) regarding COVID and miscarriages was tagged by Twitter as false info.

[CoreySamson]

I find the idea that a layman individual to be able to ascertain the state of the art of research and be their own doctor -- COVID vaccinations related or not -- to be particularly laughable.  "I read a couple of articles that confirmed my desire not to get a vaccine" is what that mentality boils down to and is a method of risk aversion founded upon the shaky ground of selection bias.

If I can't trust myself to think about things and make conclusions off of that about my health, then where do I draw the line on what I can conclude things about? Should every aspect of my life be determined by what the experts say? Or are there certain things that it's okay to think about for one's self?


Just to be clear, it took me almost a year to decide whether I wanted to get vaccinated or not. I wanted to wait to see when some data came in about vaccinations (I guess you could call me a skeptic). By the time I was thinking about getting vaccinated, all the people at risk in my life were vaccinated and the risk of COVID waned off considerably at the time (around when Omicron was starting and scientists had figured out it was mild). Given how the shot had some known side effects for my age group and that everyone vulnerable around me was no longer in much danger due to being vaccinated, I decided that getting it wasn't worth it to me. I don't believe the vaccine makes you infertile or that it makes you "magnetic" or any of that stupid garbage peddled by the radical parts of the GOP. Neither am I scared of needles or vaccines in general. I've just seen enough evidence that the vaccine can cause heart problems to discourage myself from getting it. That's all.

Fun thing now is that they're linking COVID to psychotic disorders.  Going to be a crazy world...

Yup. I believe it.

[kphoger]

I find the idea that a layman individual to be able to ascertain the state of the art of research and be their own doctor -- COVID vaccinations related or not -- to be particularly laughable.  "I read a couple of articles that confirmed my desire not to get a vaccine" is what that mentality boils down to and is a method of risk aversion founded upon the shaky ground of selection bias.

As shaky and ill-founded as it may be, it still boils down to someone making a decision based on what they believe to be safety.  Which is what actually prompted HB to bring it up in this thread in the first place, after all.

There has been a growing anti-vaccine sentiment since long before COVID.

My wife and I were briefly headed in that direction.  We were never hardcore anti-vaxxers, but there was a period of time when we weren't taking our kids in for their shots while we sorted through our conscientious misgivings about getting a vaccine that had been manufactured from cells derived from abortions.  As pro-life people, that presented an ethical dilemma–until we got over it.  (Well, that's the short story.)



Hey, let's hop on a tangent away from COVID, what do you think?  Let's talk flu shots.  Do you guys take the "risk" of not getting flu shots?  Has your stance on flu shots changed since 2020?

I happily got all of the COVID shots available, but I've never had a flu shot and don't intend to.

[NWI_Irish96]

I find the idea that a layman individual to be able to ascertain the state of the art of research and be their own doctor -- COVID vaccinations related or not -- to be particularly laughable.  "I read a couple of articles that confirmed my desire not to get a vaccine" is what that mentality boils down to and is a method of risk aversion founded upon the shaky ground of selection bias.

As shaky and ill-founded as it may be, it still boils down to someone making a decision based on what they believe to be safety.  Which is what actually prompted HB to bring it up in this thread in the first place, after all.

There has been a growing anti-vaccine sentiment since long before COVID.

My wife and I were briefly headed in that direction.  We were never hardcore anti-vaxxers, but there was a period of time when we weren't taking our kids in for their shots while we sorted through our conscientious misgivings about getting a vaccine that had been manufactured from cells derived from abortions.  As pro-life people, that presented an ethical dilemma–until we got over it.  (Well, that's the short story.)



Hey, let's hop on a tangent away from COVID, what do you think?  Let's talk flu shots.  Do you guys take the "risk" of not getting flu shots?  Has your stance on flu shots changed since 2020?

I happily got all of the COVID shots available, but I've never had a flu shot and don't intend to.

So, a flu shot is a predictive vaccine rather than a reactive vaccine (which was the COVID vaccine). There are lots of strains of flu, and each year the vaccine folks do their best to predict which strains will become dominant during the upcoming winter, with enough lag time to manufacture millions of doses. Like you would expect, some years they do better than others in their predictions. Some years the flu vaccine is extremely effective and some years it's almost not effective at all. I get it every year because I've never had a bad reaction to it, so a worst case scenario is I'm wasting an hour of my time and having a sore arm for a few hours.

Anecdotally, since I started taking annual flu vaccines I've noticed I get colds less frequently, and I've heard several others say the same thing. I've not seen any clinical evidence of this though, but it seems to work well for me.

[CoreySamson]

Hey, let's hop on a tangent away from COVID, what do you think?  Let's talk flu shots.  Do you guys take the "risk" of not getting flu shots?  Has your stance on flu shots changed since 2020?

I pretty much always get my flu shot whenever it's available. My stance hasn't changed on them at all, ever.

[Max Rockatansky]

Hey, let's hop on a tangent away from COVID, what do you think?  Let's talk flu shots.  Do you guys take the "risk" of not getting flu shots?  Has your stance on flu shots changed since 2020?

I pretty much always get my flu shot whenever it's available. My stance hasn't changed on them at all, ever.

Usually I won't seek out a flu shot.  If my annual physical lines up with flu season I won't turn a free vaccination down at my doctor.

It probably doesn't motivate me much that I have 750 plus hours of paid sick time sitting around unused.  A typical flu is usually good for a 16 payroll hours of time on the couch sleeping.

[US 89]

I've always gotten the flu shot. I actually am pretty sure I've had the flu a couple times in the last few years, but in the form of just a manageable cold thanks to the shot.

[Rothman]

I find the idea that a layman individual to be able to ascertain the state of the art of research and be their own doctor -- COVID vaccinations related or not -- to be particularly laughable.  "I read a couple of articles that confirmed my desire not to get a vaccine" is what that mentality boils down to and is a method of risk aversion founded upon the shaky ground of selection bias.

If I can't trust myself to think about things and make conclusions off of that about my health, then where do I draw the line on what I can conclude things about? Should every aspect of my life be determined by what the experts say? Or are there certain things that it's okay to think about for one's self?

When you're not the expert, listen to the experts that are reviewing the state of the art of the research and evidence.  It's just that simple.  You are never going to have the resources to come to proper conclusions yourself given the breadth of research that has been done out there.

The rest of your post is just an attempt to rationalize your own selection bias.  To think that experts did not take into account those few papers you mentioned when they made the recommendations for vaccination is simply wrong.

And I'm not saying to take my word for it either.  Medical decisions should be made in consultation with one's doctor, who can discern whether existing conditions should keep one from getting vaccinated (my sister-in-law has Guillam-Barre and her doctor recommended to stay away from the vaccination as an example).  We aren't doctors or experts.  They are.

To think that laymen can amass enough knowledge through a little Google searching to equal the consideration put into the medical community recommending vaccination is simply foolish.  To say, "I'm not going to listen to my doctor and figure this out myself" -- doubly so.

[webny99]

I can be well assured that I've never had covid because I have never had any of the classic symptoms. I've had some cold and allergy symptoms since it first emerged on the scene, but no fevers, no loss of taste or smell, or any of that. The only illness I've really had in the past two years was a nasty sinus infection back in February.

A fever and a loss of taste/smell are no longer the primary symptoms of covid. With the new variants, the symptoms have become largely upper respiratory - stuffy nose, blocked airways, perhaps slight difficulty breathing, and, especially, a sore throat. I wouldn't be shocked if what you had in February was covid, especially if it involved a sore throat.

[gonealookin]

Hey, let's hop on a tangent away from COVID, what do you think?  Let's talk flu shots.  Do you guys take the "risk" of not getting flu shots?  Has your stance on flu shots changed since 2020?

I happily got all of the COVID shots available, but I've never had a flu shot and don't intend to.

I have been getting the flu shot every year for many years.  My main rationale has been that I get on airplanes several times during the winter for vacations, and the last thing I would want would be to spend a couple grand on a trip to Hawaii or someplace and then find myself lying in bed for a few days.  I know the flu shot is never close to 100% effective but I just feel like it puts me on the right side of the odds, for zero cost other than the little bit of time required.

I didn't used to wear masks on airplanes.  Prior to Covid there would always be that one person wearing one and I thought they looked a bit silly.  I have flown one round-trip since the lifting of the mask mandate and I did choose to wear a mask, but it was one of those with the vents with embedded filters that wasn't acceptable during the mandate.  I found it comfortable enough and going forward I plan on wearing those "comfort masks" to fend off flu, Covid, common colds and all the other airborne bugs one could be exposed to in that environment where you're so close to strangers for such a long time.

[webny99]

Hey, let's hop on a tangent away from COVID, what do you think?  Let's talk flu shots.  Do you guys take the "risk" of not getting flu shots?  Has your stance on flu shots changed since 2020?

I happily got all of the COVID shots available, but I've never had a flu shot and don't intend to.

Tangent appreciated, although I'm not sure how much of a tangent it really is because... I don't get how you could have a totally different position on the flu shot than you do on the covid shot. Covid was initially a lot worse than the flu, but that's becoming less so over time, so eventually, positions on the two are going to essentially merge and you either believe vaccines are effective and worth taking, or you don't.

I had only received the flu shot maybe a handful of years prior to covid, but have received it the past two years and plan to continue doing so.

I pretty much always get my flu shot whenever it's available. My stance hasn't changed on them at all, ever.

In light of my point above, I'm really curious as to why that is. I had some mild symptoms (mostly aches and chills) from the covid vaccine, but other than the first one when I also threw up (which may have been from what I ate combined with nervousness/tension) it wasn't really any worse than the symptoms I normally get from the flu shot.

[webny99]

I get it every year because I've never had a bad reaction to it, so a worst case scenario is I'm wasting an hour of my time and having a sore arm for a few hours.

Anecdotally, since I started taking annual flu vaccines I've noticed I get colds less frequently, and I've heard several others say the same thing. I've not seen any clinical evidence of this though, but it seems to work well for me.

This is basically my position as well and I also think it reduces the frequency/severity of colds and cold-like symptoms. I seem to get sick around the same time every spring (allergies, perhaps?), but other than that and recently having covid, I really haven't been sick much in the past few years.

[Rothman]

Oh yeah, flu shot.  I get them.  I know they misjudge the strain, but it's another situation where I'd rather not give it to someone that'll die from it.

[kphoger]

Tangent appreciated, although I'm not sure how much of a tangent it really is because... I don't get how you could have a totally different position on the flu shot than you do on the covid shot. Covid was initially a lot worse than the flu, but that's becoming less so over time, so eventually, positions on the two are going to essentially merge and you either believe vaccines are effective and worth taking, or you don't.

And, when the COVID vaccines were first being given out, that disease was still pretty bad.  Having suffered through influenza without the benefit of either a flu shot or Tamiflu (I couldn't get into the clinic until it was too late because I got sick on New Year's Eve), I didn't want to suffer through anything worse than influenza.  With the efficacy of the vaccines being really high–above 90% effective at the beginning–it seemed to be a no-brainer, especially because, by the time my age group was eligible to get the shot, enough time had passed that I was no longer worried about long-term side-effects.  And, by that point, two of my friends had already had a really bad case of COVID (one of them says it almost killed him, as he got it at the same time as bronchitis).  Plus, we were still living under the illusion that everyone getting the vaccine might actually make COVID go away.  And, last but not least, I don't have health insurance, so it would be nice to avoid a hospital stay.

In contrast, I pretty much know what to expect if I get the flu:  several miserable days stuck in bed, barely able to get up to get a glass of water, and then recovery.  Not great, but I know I can handle it.  A lot of years, as has been mentioned, the flu shot isn't very effective, so the benefit doesn't outweigh the inconvenience by nearly as much.  And obviously I'm not living under the illusion that I'm helping to eradicate influenza from the world by getting a flu shot.

But, as you say, my positions on these two will likely merge as time goes on, as COVID becomes less severe of a sickness, and as vaccines become less effective.  My prediction is that I'll simply stop wanting to get COVID shots at some point–that I'll treat it like a flu shot–but it's possible my positions will merge in some other way.  Who knows?

I had some mild symptoms (mostly aches and chills) from the covid vaccine, but other than the first one when I also threw up (which may have been from what I ate combined with nervousness/tension) it wasn't really any worse than the symptoms I normally get from the flu shot.

It knocked me flat.  With the second shot, I felt like I had the actual flu all that day:  off-and-on chills becoming more "on" than "off" as time went on, felt like I had a terrible fever (even though I didn't), headache, weak.  I was back to normal in about 20 hours, but in the meantime it was just like being sick.  The booster shot was more of the same, except the side-effects lasted even longer.

Don't get me wrong, I don't wish I hadn't gotten the shots.  If I had it to do over again, I'd definitely still get them.  And that's precisely what that friend I mentioned said, the one who says COVID nearly killed him:  the vaccine knocked him flat too, worse than it did me, but without question he'd take that a hundred times over what he went through with the actual virus.

But I bring it up to let you know that not everyone had such an easy time of it as you did.



As for getting less frequent colds...  I've found that I get colds a LOT less often now that I wash my hands more frequently.  In fact, I hardly ever get anything more than a runny nose anymore.

[abefroman329]

Medical decisions should be made in consultation with one's doctor, who can discern whether existing conditions should keep one from getting vaccinated (my sister-in-law has Guillam-Barre and her doctor recommended to stay away from the vaccination as an example).

Exactly.  If HB consulted with a doctor who was familiar with his health history and comorbidities and advised him that not getting the vaccine was the best option, I'll eat my hat.

[abefroman329]

Flu shots: yes, annually, and I felt like I was walking a tightrope the one year I didn't get one.  To the best of my knowledge, I have never had the flu, but it sounds awful.

[CoreySamson]

I pretty much always get my flu shot whenever it's available. My stance hasn't changed on them at all, ever.

In light of my point above, I'm really curious as to why that is. I had some mild symptoms (mostly aches and chills) from the covid vaccine, but other than the first one when I also threw up (which may have been from what I ate combined with nervousness/tension) it wasn't really any worse than the symptoms I normally get from the flu shot.

If you read between the lines in my first three posts on this page, you'll notice that my aversion to the COVID vaccine is not because of the normal side effects. I'm not scared of normal side effects for the COVID shot (that's a given with any vaccine, more or less). I'm not scared of needles. What I am scared of is the potential risk of myocarditis the COVID vaccine brings, especially given my family's history of heart troubles and crappy doctors. The flu shot, although new every year, does not carry as much potential risk to my age bracket and does not carry many side effect risks (at least, not that I'm aware of).

This is probably my last post in this thread, as it seems people on both sides of the vaccine debate are equally entrenched in their opinions and further debate seems unprofitable to both sides.

[JayhawkCO]

I pretty much always get my flu shot whenever it's available. My stance hasn't changed on them at all, ever.

In light of my point above, I'm really curious as to why that is. I had some mild symptoms (mostly aches and chills) from the covid vaccine, but other than the first one when I also threw up (which may have been from what I ate combined with nervousness/tension) it wasn't really any worse than the symptoms I normally get from the flu shot.

If you read between the lines in my first three posts on this page, you'll notice that my aversion to the COVID vaccine is not because of the normal side effects. I'm not scared of normal side effects for the COVID shot (that's a given with any vaccine, more or less). I'm not scared of needles. What I am scared of is the potential risk of myocarditis the COVID vaccine brings, especially given my family's history of heart troubles and crappy doctors. The flu shot, although new every year, does not carry as much potential risk to my age bracket and does not carry many side effect risks (at least, not that I'm aware of).

This is probably my last post in this thread, as it seems people on both sides of the vaccine debate are equally entrenched in their opinions and further debate seems unprofitable to both sides.

And fair enough if you don't want to respond to this, but from every article I've read (and I'm obviously not a doctor, so take with a grain of salt), the risk of myocarditis is exponentially higher from getting Covid than it is from getting vaccinated. But to each their own.

[US 89]

I’ll always get the flu shot. I know it’s not perfect - indeed, I’m pretty sure I’ve gotten the flu 2 of the last 3 years - but I’m convinced my symptoms were much easier to deal with than if I hadn’t gotten the shot.

Same deal with COVID, really. I’ve had my two shots and a booster, and the immediate side effects of that one are more annoying as I’ve gotten a fever the next night after two of those, but I’ve had COVID at least once and it was basically just a cold. The risks of COVID, which are far worse and more life-altering if you’re not vaccinated, are way more important to me than the inconvenience of getting sick for a night. Any other side effects like the myocarditis stuff that makes the news are so rare that I (and any medical professional I’ve ever talked to) am not worried about them.

[kphoger]

And fair enough if you don't want to respond to this, but from every article I read (and I'm obviously not a doctor, so take with a grain of salt), the risk of myocarditis is exponentially higher from getting Covid than it is from getting vaccinated. But to each their own.

Taking it back to risk aversion (the topic of the thread, remember)...  Getting COVID is a maybe type situation (at least that's what we were allowed to believe for a now-seemingly brief period of time).  But getting the vaccine is something a person intentionally does to himself.  I find that people's calculus for risk isn't necessarily the same between (a) conscious decisions to do something that carries a risk and (b) decisions to avoid doing something that carries a risk.