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Risk Aversion

Started by Max Rockatansky, June 07, 2022, 12:53:43 PM

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abefroman329

Quote from: hbelkins on June 13, 2022, 10:35:53 AM
A cousin of mine is pulling up stakes, and he and his family are moving to Portugal. He gave up his job, I presume his wife is giving up a job as well, and they are selling most all their worldly possessions to make the move. I have no idea if he has employment lined up there or not, but to me that's a very big and risky decision that I would never feel comfortable making.
Quitting a job before having another one lined up is enormously risky.  I did it once, in my mid-twenties, and it worked out fine, but it's not something I'd try again, especially now that I have a family that would be impacted by the decision.

And I can only hope he and/or his wife have the right to seek employment in Portugal.


JayhawkCO

Quote from: Rothman on June 13, 2022, 11:10:22 AM
Quote from: webny99 on June 13, 2022, 11:03:08 AM
Quote from: Rothman on June 13, 2022, 10:44:22 AM
Quote from: JayhawkCO on June 13, 2022, 10:39:43 AM
... if certain aspects of this country keep going the way that they seem to be, I am very tempted to do the same in a few years. ...
MUST MAKE IT A POLITICAL THREAD

Thats... actually a pretty neutral statement. In the right context I could see pretty much any person saying that exact same thing regardless of where they are on the political spectrum or really any other spectrum. Not that that speaks well of the state of the country either!
So, where are you moving to?

If this happens to be directed towards me, I've been looking at a few places: Montenegro, Georgia, Panama, Ecuador, and Chile near the top of the list.

Max Rockatansky

#177
Quote from: abefroman329 on June 13, 2022, 11:25:03 AM
Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 13, 2022, 10:07:07 AM
Quote from: GaryV on June 13, 2022, 09:50:33 AM
Quote from: JayhawkCO on June 12, 2022, 11:10:51 PM
80's youth, am I right?

Consider the boomers. I was born in the late 50's. We never had bike helmets. We were allowed to roam the neighborhood freely; just come home when the streetlights came on (so as dusk approached, we didn't look at the streetlights). We didn't have car safety seats for babies or kids - for quite a while we didn't even have seat belts.

It's a wonder any of us survived, I guess.

Basically that's how it was for me in the 80s and early 90s.  Seatbelts were optional so long as we were in the back seat of the van or Vista Cruiser. 

In fact, doesn't Michigan still not have a rear passenger seat belt law?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias

Not really on my end, I know what we did and what my parents allowed was unsafe.  In fact when I was four-five I recall asking what happens if there was a crash and I didn't have my belt on in the back of the Vista Cruiser.  My Mom's placate on answer was "you'll just hit the seat and be fine."  

Oddly at the same age I was extremely afraid of structure fires after watching The Towering Inferno and for some reason running out gas.  It even to the point where I would ask my Dad frequently if the electrical wiring at home was up to code and I would hide the fire escape ladder in my room.

J N Winkler

Quote from: Rothman on June 13, 2022, 10:45:42 AMBut...why Portugal?

That is my question too--I have shirttail relatives who also moved to Portugal and are apparently gainfully employed there, though AFAIK, they are not wealthy or in shortage occupations (one is a social worker and the other is a physical therapist).  One has an Italian last name, and Italy is one of several EU countries that allow indefinite expatriatism (Luxembourg is another), so I wonder if they came as EU citizens.

Generic reasons for moving to Portugal apparently include low cost of living, the ability to use English on a daily basis, and certain tax advantages for residents.
"It is necessary to spend a hundred lire now to save a thousand lire later."--Piero Puricelli, explaining the need for a first-class road system to Benito Mussolini

thspfc

Quote from: JayhawkCO on June 13, 2022, 11:46:20 AM
Quote from: Rothman on June 13, 2022, 11:10:22 AM
Quote from: webny99 on June 13, 2022, 11:03:08 AM
Quote from: Rothman on June 13, 2022, 10:44:22 AM
Quote from: JayhawkCO on June 13, 2022, 10:39:43 AM
... if certain aspects of this country keep going the way that they seem to be, I am very tempted to do the same in a few years. ...
MUST MAKE IT A POLITICAL THREAD

Thats... actually a pretty neutral statement. In the right context I could see pretty much any person saying that exact same thing regardless of where they are on the political spectrum or really any other spectrum. Not that that speaks well of the state of the country either!
So, where are you moving to?

If this happens to be directed towards me, I've been looking at a few places: Montenegro, Georgia, Panama, Ecuador, and Chile near the top of the list.
What do these countries have that the US doesn't?

hbelkins

Quote from: Rothman on June 13, 2022, 10:45:42 AM
Quote from: hbelkins on June 13, 2022, 10:35:53 AM
A cousin of mine is pulling up stakes, and he and his family are moving to Portugal. He gave up his job, I presume his wife is giving up a job as well, and they are selling most all their worldly possessions to make the move. I have no idea if he has employment lined up there or not, but to me that's a very big and risky decision that I would never feel comfortable making.
I can see it if they spoke fluent Portuguese and if they keep enough in reserve to make it back if things fail.

But...why Portugal?

I don't know. I don't talk to him really often and have only seen the news on Facebook. (His mother is my first cousin and he lives [lived] in Radcliff and worked at Fort Knox). The family visited there recently as tourists. Maybe they liked it so much they decided to move there.


Government would be tolerable if not for politicians and bureaucrats.

JayhawkCO

Quote from: thspfc on June 13, 2022, 02:50:59 PM
Quote from: JayhawkCO on June 13, 2022, 11:46:20 AM
Quote from: Rothman on June 13, 2022, 11:10:22 AM
Quote from: webny99 on June 13, 2022, 11:03:08 AM
Quote from: Rothman on June 13, 2022, 10:44:22 AM
Quote from: JayhawkCO on June 13, 2022, 10:39:43 AM
... if certain aspects of this country keep going the way that they seem to be, I am very tempted to do the same in a few years. ...
MUST MAKE IT A POLITICAL THREAD

Thats... actually a pretty neutral statement. In the right context I could see pretty much any person saying that exact same thing regardless of where they are on the political spectrum or really any other spectrum. Not that that speaks well of the state of the country either!
So, where are you moving to?

If this happens to be directed towards me, I've been looking at a few places: Montenegro, Georgia, Panama, Ecuador, and Chile near the top of the list.
What do these countries have that the US doesn't?

Many things. Cheaper real estate and gun control near the top of the list.

Max Rockatansky

Quote from: thspfc on June 13, 2022, 02:50:59 PM
Quote from: JayhawkCO on June 13, 2022, 11:46:20 AM
Quote from: Rothman on June 13, 2022, 11:10:22 AM
Quote from: webny99 on June 13, 2022, 11:03:08 AM
Quote from: Rothman on June 13, 2022, 10:44:22 AM
Quote from: JayhawkCO on June 13, 2022, 10:39:43 AM
... if certain aspects of this country keep going the way that they seem to be, I am very tempted to do the same in a few years. ...
MUST MAKE IT A POLITICAL THREAD

Thats... actually a pretty neutral statement. In the right context I could see pretty much any person saying that exact same thing regardless of where they are on the political spectrum or really any other spectrum. Not that that speaks well of the state of the country either!
So, where are you moving to?

If this happens to be directed towards me, I've been looking at a few places: Montenegro, Georgia, Panama, Ecuador, and Chile near the top of the list.
What do these countries have that the US doesn't?

I think it's more a question of what don't they have.  I threw out Mexico above and the slower pace of day to day life.  You don't have a fast paced largely white collar work culture and a lot of materialism seen State side just isn't a thing down there.  Mass media proliferation isn't a constant thing for most either, that's particularly appealing to me.  In our case the lack of fully modern infrastructure and living in an open air home doesn't bother my wife and I.  It definitely doesn't hurt that food and property are substantially cheaper as well. 

J N Winkler

Quote from: thspfc on June 13, 2022, 02:50:59 PMWhat do these countries have that the US doesn't?

It varies from country to country, but when I lived in Britain as a student, I really valued having access to healthcare free at the point of use.

This said, there are some generic disadvantages to living abroad as an American.  One is the assumption that you have money.  In some countries, notably Latin America, this has less to do with the actual contents of your own bank account and more to do with what are assumed to be your relationships to family back home.  Another is lack of the informal knowledge of how things work that people accumulate when they live in a country from birth.  This typically comes into play with legal matters, but can show up in surprising contexts, such as buying a used car for cash on the barrelhead--many countries don't issue vehicle titles like American states routinely do, so if (for example) you hand over the agreed-on amount and all you get is a vehicle keepership form and an inspection certificate, you don't automatically have a native's confidence that no-one is going to come after you for taking receipt of a stolen car.

Natives who know you are American often expect you to justify US policies, even if they are ones you disagree with (guns, the Iraq war, and the Katrina response all come to mind).  It doesn't become less awkward even if you later come to reconsider your disagreement (I initially opposed the Kosovo intervention but later came to realize it stopped a genocide).  Things become easier if the sitting President is popular abroad (think Obama versus Bush), but never to an extent that allows discretion to be wholly abandoned.

You also slip into a relationship with the US Government and its servants that is uneasy at best and antagonistic at worst.  If you live abroad, you are presumed to be less attached to the US, and that often leads to friction when going through immigration on re-entering the US.  If you ever run into a problem that requires you to contact diplomatic or consular staff, the starting assumption often is that you are asking them to clean up a mess you made.  US Government employees posted abroad tend to live in a bubble, with their housing and their children's schooling provided as fringe benefits, and drive around in vehicles imported from the US that are often poorly suited for the local road system (think a Ford Crown Victoria parked on double yellow here).  It is a bit like not wanting to take an out-of-town relative to a restaurant meal in your city when you know he or she has a tendency to bully waitstaff.  High-profile incidents like a government employee's wife killing someone by driving on the wrong side of the road don't help.
"It is necessary to spend a hundred lire now to save a thousand lire later."--Piero Puricelli, explaining the need for a first-class road system to Benito Mussolini

abefroman329

Quote from: J N Winkler on June 13, 2022, 04:38:32 PMYou also slip into a relationship with the US Government and its servants that is uneasy at best and antagonistic at worst.  If you live abroad, you are presumed to be less attached to the US, and that often leads to friction when going through immigration on re-entering the US.  If you ever run into a problem that requires you to contact diplomatic or consular staff, the starting assumption often is that you are asking them to clean up a mess you made.  US Government employees posted abroad tend to live in a bubble, with their housing and their children's schooling provided as fringe benefits, and drive around in vehicles imported from the US that are often poorly suited for the local road system (think a Ford Crown Victoria parked on double yellow here).  It is a bit like not wanting to take an out-of-town relative to a restaurant meal in your city when you know he or she has a tendency to bully waitstaff.  High-profile incidents like a government employee's wife killing someone by driving on the wrong side of the road don't help.
And decades of this, I think, explains the negative attitude towards Americans overseas better than anything else.

Scott5114

Quote from: thspfc on June 13, 2022, 02:50:59 PM
Quote from: JayhawkCO on June 13, 2022, 11:46:20 AM
Quote from: Rothman on June 13, 2022, 11:10:22 AM
Quote from: webny99 on June 13, 2022, 11:03:08 AM
Quote from: Rothman on June 13, 2022, 10:44:22 AM
Quote from: JayhawkCO on June 13, 2022, 10:39:43 AM
... if certain aspects of this country keep going the way that they seem to be, I am very tempted to do the same in a few years. ...
MUST MAKE IT A POLITICAL THREAD

Thats... actually a pretty neutral statement. In the right context I could see pretty much any person saying that exact same thing regardless of where they are on the political spectrum or really any other spectrum. Not that that speaks well of the state of the country either!
So, where are you moving to?

If this happens to be directed towards me, I've been looking at a few places: Montenegro, Georgia, Panama, Ecuador, and Chile near the top of the list.
What do these countries have that the US doesn't?

I can't speak to any of the countries on this list in particular, but Americans often go abroad in search of better healthcare and working conditions, including higher wages and government-mandated paid time off. If one has an appetite for the presence of a better social safety net, leaving the country is basically the only solution, since opposition to it in the US is so entrenched. Also, US culture in some regions can be extremely off-putting if one doesn't hold the majority view (e.g. if one is LGBT in Florida or Texas).

I'd be skittish about Georgia simply because it is in a prime position to become another Ukraine. I have seen (but not vetted) social media posts that indicate that the Georgian—Russian border has been silently creeping southward.
uncontrollable freak sardine salad chef

SSOWorld

Georgia suffered Russian invasions prior to Ukraine and two de facto countries  Abkhazia and South Ossetia appeared and are disputed by all countries save each other, Russia and countries that sympathize with Russian interests (Nicaragua, Venezuela, Syria so far - along with the two breakaways in Ukraine).  The war there didn't last as long as the one in Ukraine, but there is enough tension because of Russian rebels in the two breakaway regions.  There are increased fears there again after Ukraine was invaded.
Scott O.

Not all who wander are lost...
Ah, the open skies, wind at my back, warm sun on my... wait, where the hell am I?!
As a matter of fact, I do own the road.
Raise your what?

Wisconsin - out-multiplexing your state since 1918.

thspfc

Quote from: SSOWorld on June 14, 2022, 04:38:15 AM
Georgia suffered Russian invasions prior to Ukraine and two de facto countries  Abkhazia and South Ossetia appeared and are disputed by all countries save each other, Russia and countries that sympathize with Russian interests (Nicaragua, Venezuela, Syria so far - along with the two breakaways in Ukraine).  The war there didn't last as long as the one in Ukraine, but there is enough tension because of Russian rebels in the two breakaway regions.  There are increased fears there again after Ukraine was invaded.
But, but, but, they have good gun control!

Rothman

Quote from: thspfc on June 14, 2022, 08:00:49 AM
Quote from: SSOWorld on June 14, 2022, 04:38:15 AM
Georgia suffered Russian invasions prior to Ukraine and two de facto countries  Abkhazia and South Ossetia appeared and are disputed by all countries save each other, Russia and countries that sympathize with Russian interests (Nicaragua, Venezuela, Syria so far - along with the two breakaways in Ukraine).  The war there didn't last as long as the one in Ukraine, but there is enough tension because of Russian rebels in the two breakaway regions.  There are increased fears there again after Ukraine was invaded.
But, but, but, they have good gun control!
Wut.
Please note: All comments here represent my own personal opinion and do not reflect the official position(s) of NYSDOT.

JayhawkCO

Quote from: Scott5114 on June 13, 2022, 07:32:19 PM
I'd be skittish about Georgia simply because it is in a prime position to become another Ukraine. I have seen (but not vetted) social media posts that indicate that the Georgian—Russian border has been silently creeping southward.

Admittedly so with regards to proximity to Russia. I'm not sure if Russia is going to get past their quagmire in Ukraine to even have the energy to try to further their empire.

Quote from: thspfc on June 14, 2022, 08:00:49 AM
Quote from: SSOWorld on June 14, 2022, 04:38:15 AM
Georgia suffered Russian invasions prior to Ukraine and two de facto countries  Abkhazia and South Ossetia appeared and are disputed by all countries save each other, Russia and countries that sympathize with Russian interests (Nicaragua, Venezuela, Syria so far - along with the two breakaways in Ukraine).  The war there didn't last as long as the one in Ukraine, but there is enough tension because of Russian rebels in the two breakaway regions.  There are increased fears there again after Ukraine was invaded.
But, but, but, they have good gun control!

Fine. Less whack jobs with easy access to guns that kill strangers for fun. That's a better classification.

thspfc

Quote from: Rothman on June 14, 2022, 08:16:24 AM
Quote from: thspfc on June 14, 2022, 08:00:49 AM
Quote from: SSOWorld on June 14, 2022, 04:38:15 AM
Georgia suffered Russian invasions prior to Ukraine and two de facto countries  Abkhazia and South Ossetia appeared and are disputed by all countries save each other, Russia and countries that sympathize with Russian interests (Nicaragua, Venezuela, Syria so far - along with the two breakaways in Ukraine).  The war there didn't last as long as the one in Ukraine, but there is enough tension because of Russian rebels in the two breakaway regions.  There are increased fears there again after Ukraine was invaded.
But, but, but, they have good gun control!
Wut.
Troll

Takumi

Quote from: thspfc on June 14, 2022, 11:33:01 AM
Quote from: Rothman on June 14, 2022, 08:16:24 AM
Quote from: thspfc on June 14, 2022, 08:00:49 AM
Quote from: SSOWorld on June 14, 2022, 04:38:15 AM
Georgia suffered Russian invasions prior to Ukraine and two de facto countries  Abkhazia and South Ossetia appeared and are disputed by all countries save each other, Russia and countries that sympathize with Russian interests (Nicaragua, Venezuela, Syria so far - along with the two breakaways in Ukraine).  The war there didn't last as long as the one in Ukraine, but there is enough tension because of Russian rebels in the two breakaway regions.  There are increased fears there again after Ukraine was invaded.
But, but, but, they have good gun control!
Wut.
Troll
L + ratio
Quote from: Rothman on July 15, 2021, 07:52:59 AM
Olive Garden must be stopped.  I must stop them.

Don't @ me. Seriously.

kphoger

Quote from: thspfc on June 12, 2022, 09:55:12 PM

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 12, 2022, 07:05:31 PM

Quote from: thspfc on June 12, 2022, 06:53:07 PM

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 12, 2022, 06:32:03 PM
Hence the title or this subject of this thread. 

Not really. There's a difference between risk aversion and intentional risk taking with no reward whatsoever.

I never said what I have been doing is the logical thing to do.  I'm aware of the risks and consequences to a lot of the activities I engage in.  If somehow they ultimately be what takes me out then that's something I accept.  That's the whole gist of this thread, what is acceptable to one person may not be to another.

You do you I guess. You can explain it but I'm never going to understand why. To me it's not a risk tolerance thing, it's just a flat bad decision.

Should he wear a helmet while running?  While walking across the street?  While driving a car?

Is there any reward to not wearing a helmet in any of those situations?
Keep right except to pass.  Yes.  You.
Visit scenic Orleans County, NY!
Male pronouns, please.

Quote from: Philip K. DickIf you can control the meaning of words, you can control the people who must use them.

Max Rockatansky

Quote from: kphoger on June 14, 2022, 01:22:01 PM
Quote from: thspfc on June 12, 2022, 09:55:12 PM

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 12, 2022, 07:05:31 PM

Quote from: thspfc on June 12, 2022, 06:53:07 PM

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 12, 2022, 06:32:03 PM
Hence the title or this subject of this thread. 

Not really. There's a difference between risk aversion and intentional risk taking with no reward whatsoever.

I never said what I have been doing is the logical thing to do.  I'm aware of the risks and consequences to a lot of the activities I engage in.  If somehow they ultimately be what takes me out then that's something I accept.  That's the whole gist of this thread, what is acceptable to one person may not be to another.

You do you I guess. You can explain it but I'm never going to understand why. To me it's not a risk tolerance thing, it's just a flat bad decision.

Should he wear a helmet while running?  While walking across the street?  While driving a car?

Is there any reward to not wearing a helmet in any of those situations?

Interestingly "in theory"  a helmet would have likely prevented a concussion when I was hit by a car during 2010 while running (between 2-3 PM).  I landed on my left arm (which led to a break in the distal radius) and smacked my headed into the asphalt.  Wouldn't have done much for the arm or my cracked ribs but I would have been likely more coherent.  Perhaps it would have stopped my face from getting tattooed by the hot asphalt?

thspfc

Quote from: kphoger on June 14, 2022, 01:22:01 PM
Quote from: thspfc on June 12, 2022, 09:55:12 PM

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 12, 2022, 07:05:31 PM

Quote from: thspfc on June 12, 2022, 06:53:07 PM

Quote from: Max Rockatansky on June 12, 2022, 06:32:03 PM
Hence the title or this subject of this thread. 

Not really. There's a difference between risk aversion and intentional risk taking with no reward whatsoever.

I never said what I have been doing is the logical thing to do.  I'm aware of the risks and consequences to a lot of the activities I engage in.  If somehow they ultimately be what takes me out then that's something I accept.  That's the whole gist of this thread, what is acceptable to one person may not be to another.

You do you I guess. You can explain it but I'm never going to understand why. To me it's not a risk tolerance thing, it's just a flat bad decision.

Should he wear a helmet while running?  While walking across the street?  While driving a car?

Is there any reward to not wearing a helmet in any of those situations?
The reward is not looking like a clown. And not having to bring around a helmet everywhere. Yes, it's a small reward, but it's also a very small risk to walk across the street without a helmet. I doubt a helmet would save you in a severe car crash, unless it's a full-on motorcycle helmet.

JayhawkCO

Quote from: thspfc on June 14, 2022, 03:08:40 PM
The reward is not looking like a clown. And not having to bring around a helmet everywhere. Yes, it's a small reward, but it's also a very small risk to walk across the street without a helmet. I doubt a helmet would save you in a severe car crash, unless it's a full-on motorcycle helmet.

Again, generationally, we made fun of the kids riding bikes with helmets on back in the 80's. While I understand that the mentality has changed, I still perceive overprotective parents when I see kids with helmets riding a bike on a sidewalk. I'm aware this is a me thing, but to me, the kids look like "clowns" to use your nomenclature.

Max Rockatansky

Quote from: JayhawkCO on June 14, 2022, 03:11:47 PM
Quote from: thspfc on June 14, 2022, 03:08:40 PM
The reward is not looking like a clown. And not having to bring around a helmet everywhere. Yes, it's a small reward, but it's also a very small risk to walk across the street without a helmet. I doubt a helmet would save you in a severe car crash, unless it's a full-on motorcycle helmet.

Again, generationally, we made fun of the kids riding bikes with helmets on back in the 80's. While I understand that the mentality has changed, I still perceive overprotective parents when I see kids with helmets riding a bike on a sidewalk. I'm aware this is a me thing, but to me, the kids look like "clowns" to use your nomenclature.

I distinctly recall kids my age who wore helmets being ripped apart as being nerds by their peers.  It usually wasn't long after the first verbal assailment that the helmet in question would no longer appear.

kphoger

For what it's worth, there at least used to be two or three "old farts" who would sit in front of this building in Carrier Mills, IL.  You know, the type who might hang out at the local doughnut shop and tell stories about the '55 Ford they had as a teenager or complain about their wives' sciatica or whatever, except the town they live in isn't big enough to have a doughnut shop, so they just sit on a bench instead, wearing overalls that look brand new even though they've owned them for 21 years and counting, a plaid long-sleeved shirt with the top button fastened even though it's 95° outside, and Velcro sneakers because their arthritis has gotten so bad they can't tie shoelaces anymore.  I used to see these guys every so often, as the school district nearby was one of my usual delivery route customers.  (2008 imagery is too grainy for me to tell if it's them or not.)

Anyway, one day I noticed one of them wearing a bicycle helmet while just sitting there on the bench with his buddies.  Then, the next time I saw them, he was again wearing the bicycle helmet.  I thought it looked quite laughable, ridiculous–dare I say, like a clown.  Of course, I assume it's because he was old and worried about falling, perhaps even suffering from some sort of balance problem, and he'd rather look silly than get a head injury at his age.
Keep right except to pass.  Yes.  You.
Visit scenic Orleans County, NY!
Male pronouns, please.

Quote from: Philip K. DickIf you can control the meaning of words, you can control the people who must use them.

GaryV

There must be some reward for not wearing a helmet. Because they sure fought hard to get the motorcycle helmet law reversed in Michigan. And now you see loads of motorcyclists without helmets. Must be some reason.

Dirt Roads

Quote from: kphoger on June 14, 2022, 03:29:42 PM
...Anyway, one day I noticed one of them wearing a bicycle helmet while just sitting there on the bench with his buddies.  Then, the next time I saw them, he was again wearing the bicycle helmet.  I thought it looked quite laughable, ridiculous–dare I say, like a clown.  Of course, I assume it's because he was old and worried about falling, perhaps even suffering from some sort of balance problem, and he'd rather look silly than get a head injury at his age.

The so-called Mayor of the unincorporated town that I lived near was autistic, and he often rode a bicycle to the local gas station hangout.  After years of talking with him, I noticed that he was wearing a bicycle helmet at the gas station every time I saw him.  I just assumed that he could no longer remember to take it off.  No, he never wore a bicycle helmet when riding a bike.  He started falling frequently and the doctor recommended that he quit riding, and he also recommended a bicycle helmet whenever he was walking around.  He was faithful to the very end.  After his death, that gas station commissioned someone do a professional cartoon sketch of "The Mayor", indeed with his bicycle helmet (that had a double meaning).



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