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Author Topic: Tropical cyclone tracking thread  (Read 134062 times)

NWI_Irish96

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #850 on: September 26, 2022, 09:23:29 AM »

My son's name is Ian so we are having a lot of fun with headlines like, "Ian forces NASA to cancel launch" and "Florida preparing for Ian's arrival"
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kalvado

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #851 on: September 26, 2022, 12:07:22 PM »

My son's name is Ian so we are having a lot of fun with headlines like, "Ian forces NASA to cancel launch" and "Florida preparing for Ian's arrival"
You may consider another trip to Florida...
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #852 on: September 26, 2022, 03:55:12 PM »

I made fun of Tropical Storm Carlos in the Eastern Pacific last year, as that is my name :sombrero:.

Meanwhile, there has been Tropical Storm Hermine, which has brought a lot of rain to the Canary Islands.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #853 on: September 26, 2022, 10:18:17 PM »

Storm surge forecasts for Pinellas and areas along Tampa Bay are looking pretty dire. Ideal scenario for high surge shaping up with the center straddling or passing just west of the coast plus a slowdown of forward movement on the hurricane.

I'm expecting wide spread power outages throughout the area, so it's going to somewhat bad for just about everyone.

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #854 on: September 26, 2022, 11:14:06 PM »

Where is Ian now?
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US 89

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #855 on: September 27, 2022, 01:40:23 AM »

Storm surge forecasts for Pinellas and areas along Tampa Bay are looking pretty dire. Ideal scenario for high surge shaping up with the center straddling or passing just west of the coast plus a slowdown of forward movement on the hurricane.

I'm expecting wide spread power outages throughout the area, so it's going to somewhat bad for just about everyone.

Yeah, the models all shifted way over away from me and towards you over the last day or two. Pinellas County is one of the last places I'd want to be right now given the current forecast.

That said, if the current eastward trend continues, Tampa Bay may be saved from some of the worst surge as the storm would then landfall and slow to the south of the bay. Unfortunately that's probably an even worse outcome in the long run, as it would subject the coast to stronger hurricane winds and also bring tremendous rainfall amounts - possibly in excess of 20 inches - into the area.

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #856 on: September 27, 2022, 11:27:35 AM »

1100 update now has the landfall much closer to Ft. Myers than Tampa.  The good news is that spares a denser area of population from the worst of the storm.  The bad news is Ian is likely to landfall as a Cat 4 so that area north of Ft. Myers is going to get shredded.  Ian is on track to slam the same area around Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda that got railed by Charley in 2004.
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ET21

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #857 on: September 27, 2022, 11:37:37 AM »

1100 update now has the landfall much closer to Ft. Myers than Tampa.  The good news is that spares a denser area of population from the worst of the storm.  The bad news is Ian is likely to landfall as a Cat 4 so that area north of Ft. Myers is going to get shredded.  Ian is on track to slam the same area around Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda that got railed by Charley in 2004.

Yeah Captiva and Sanibel islands are not gonna have fun with this current track. We went there in 2011 and heard stories from the workers/locals it took them 3-4 years to recover from Charley.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #858 on: September 27, 2022, 01:09:48 PM »

I apparently went to Captiva when I was really little. I remember none of it. But it remains the southernmost place I've ever been, and I guess it's kind of cool to be able to say you've been to a random island that got smacked by a major hurricane later on.

Also, it looks like the NHC has started doing hourly position updates now as the eye is well within range of CONUS based radars.

zzcarp

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #859 on: September 27, 2022, 01:26:14 PM »

Similarly, I spent many childhood vacations on Sanibel in the 80s. From streetview, it appears the place we stayed survived the previous hurricane. Hopefully, damage will be minimal and manageable on the islands there. And of course hoping for the same for the rest of FL.
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NWI_Irish96

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #861 on: September 28, 2022, 07:55:16 AM »

My son's name is Ian so we are having a lot of fun with headlines like, "Ian forces NASA to cancel launch" and "Florida preparing for Ian's arrival"

I guess we won't get to do this again in six years, seems like this name is likely to be retired.
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roadman65

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #862 on: September 28, 2022, 09:19:28 AM »

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #863 on: September 28, 2022, 09:21:49 AM »

I just want to point out that Puerto Rico has almost the population of Connecticut, and it got hit hard by the hurricane. What made it worse is that they hadn't recovered fully from Maria in 2017; the company that tried to restore the grid did a poor job. This is being entirely ignored by most Americans.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #864 on: September 28, 2022, 10:39:33 AM »

I just want to point out that Puerto Rico has almost the population of Connecticut, and it got hit hard by the hurricane. What made it worse is that they hadn't recovered fully from Maria in 2017; the company that tried to restore the grid did a poor job. This is being entirely ignored by most Americans.

Me pregunto porque...

JoePCool14

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #865 on: September 28, 2022, 10:59:34 AM »

I just want to point out that Puerto Rico has almost the population of Connecticut, and it got hit hard by the hurricane. What made it worse is that they hadn't recovered fully from Maria in 2017; the company that tried to restore the grid did a poor job. This is being entirely ignored by most Americans.

What are the odds that company is in bed with the Puerto Rican government?

I empathize with anyone who has to deal with a corrupt government who does not have its population's basic needs and interests in mind.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #866 on: September 28, 2022, 11:01:38 AM »

Pulled up MCO on FlightAware within the final half-hour of operations and watched a mad-dash of departures (especially Southwest) just prior to the official 10:30 closure at the airport.  The final flight appeared to be a Delta flight to LGA that took off at 10:27 (which had actually moved up its departure from 10:50 in order to make the deadline). A number of Southwest's departures were heavily delayed from earlier in the morning, but it appeared all their remaining flights wound up departing from 9:40 to 10:10.

Also saw that the Sunshine Skyway closed earlier this morning as sustained winds reached the 50-60 range.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #867 on: September 28, 2022, 11:04:40 AM »

I empathize with anyone who has to deal with a corrupt government who does not have its population's basic needs and interests in mind.

So basically everyone on earth. :)

1995hoo

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #868 on: September 28, 2022, 11:11:22 AM »

I haven't heard anything from our relatives in Fort Myers (they live off Briarcliff, for those who know the area). They don't usually evacuate. The map I saw on the Hurricane Center website seemed to suggest one to three feet of flooding likely in their neighborhood, which is no doubt due to the overall low-lying, marshy aspect of the area.

Bear in mind that for a storm hitting Florida's Gulf coast, it's the areas to the south and southeast of the eyewall that face greater risk. We tend to think of areas north and northwest as falling in that category because when a storm hits the Atlantic coast, it's the "top" side of the storm (as seen on a standard map or satellite image where north is up) that has the winds pulling or pushing the water ashore. With a storm on the other side of Florida, the water is coming from the other direction.
« Last Edit: September 28, 2022, 11:13:39 AM by 1995hoo »
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NWI_Irish96

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #869 on: September 28, 2022, 11:32:44 AM »

Making landfall right now between Fort Myers and Punta Gorda.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #870 on: September 28, 2022, 12:14:47 PM »

Making landfall right now between Fort Myers and Punta Gorda.

This is going to hit almost exactly the same place as Charley did, but as a significantly bigger and stronger system. Officially a 155 mph storm (highest-end cat.4), but there's plenty of data that could support an upgrade to cat.5 either in coming hours before landfall or in post-season reanalysis.

This is almost certainly going to be the strongest hurricane to ever hit this area and one of the strongest hurricanes to ever hit the United States from a wind perspective. Basically, we're getting an answer to the question "what if Michael had hit a more densely populated area". A question nobody really wanted answered, but oh well...

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #871 on: September 28, 2022, 12:32:18 PM »

Looking at Hurricane Ian as it's making landfall, it's a dire situation made more dire by poor forecasting. The position of landfall is very far from the path predicted as soon as two days ago. The forecasted intensity squarely undercut the actual intensification that's occurred.  Ian is just shy of reaching category 5 status; the landfall was forecasted at category 2, maybe 3.  The only saving grace here, is that the eyewall is leaning toward the western side of the storm as it makes landfall; the harshest winds and rainfall rates may occur over water, instead of over populated land areas.  That's what it looks like based on the latest radar images, anyway.  I hope everyone in Florida is able to stay safe as the landfalls causes hurricane conditions from Tampa Bay down to Marco Island.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #872 on: September 28, 2022, 12:42:26 PM »

Is it rare for Category 5 hurricanes to hit Florida? I know it's a hurricane-prone state but I'm wondering about the average category of the hurricanes that make landfall there.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #873 on: September 28, 2022, 12:45:36 PM »

Is it rare for Category 5 hurricanes to hit Florida? I know it's a hurricane-prone state but I'm wondering about the average category of the hurricanes that make landfall there.

3 out of 123 since 1851 have been Category 5 - the "Labor Day" hurricane in 1935, Andrew in 1992, and Michael in 2018. The average of all 123 is Category 2.08.

Only four Category 5 Atlantic hurricanes have ever hit the U.S.. Add Camille in 1969 and that's the entirety.

There have been some Category 5 cyclones that have hit some of our territories in the Pacific.
« Last Edit: September 28, 2022, 12:56:02 PM by JayhawkCO »
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1995hoo

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #874 on: September 28, 2022, 12:54:40 PM »

It seems 21 Waffle Houses have closed along Florida's Gulf Coast. That tells you it's serious!
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