Tropical cyclone tracking thread

[Road Hog]

A couple of invests have popped up in the Atlantic, but they're probably too far north to pose a threat to the U.S.

[bing101]

https://apnews.com/article/tropical-storm-mexico-pacific-coast-953e70f4b7bba39ab2f705742f63b803

Tropical Storm John is off the coast of Mexico.

https://apnews.com/article/caribbean-us-tropical-storm-hurricane-helene-a1582935d0b9002bc8993b483c203206

And another storm is reported off the coast of Cuba.

[bing101]

Here is Tropical Storm Helene. 

[WillWeaverRVA]

https://apnews.com/article/tropical-storm-mexico-pacific-coast-953e70f4b7bba39ab2f705742f63b803

Tropical Storm John is off the coast of Mexico.

https://apnews.com/article/caribbean-us-tropical-storm-hurricane-helene-a1582935d0b9002bc8993b483c203206

And another storm is reported off the coast of Cuba.

John became the second major hurricane to affect Acapulco in the last two years. Before 2023, no major hurricanes had ever directly affected Acapulco in recorded history.

[PColumbus73]

https://apnews.com/article/tropical-storm-mexico-pacific-coast-953e70f4b7bba39ab2f705742f63b803

Tropical Storm John is off the coast of Mexico.

https://apnews.com/article/caribbean-us-tropical-storm-hurricane-helene-a1582935d0b9002bc8993b483c203206

And another storm is reported off the coast of Cuba.

John became the second major hurricane to affect Acapulco in the last two years. Before 2023, no major hurricanes had ever directly affected Acapulco in recorded history.

There wasn't a whole lot of news on John, I didn't even know it was a Category 3 until yesterday.

The after-action for Hurricane Otis noted that storm was probably the worse forecasting miss in recent history. I think they cited the lack of buoys and meteorological instruments in the area.

[WillWeaverRVA]

https://apnews.com/article/tropical-storm-mexico-pacific-coast-953e70f4b7bba39ab2f705742f63b803

Tropical Storm John is off the coast of Mexico.

https://apnews.com/article/caribbean-us-tropical-storm-hurricane-helene-a1582935d0b9002bc8993b483c203206

And another storm is reported off the coast of Cuba.

John became the second major hurricane to affect Acapulco in the last two years. Before 2023, no major hurricanes had ever directly affected Acapulco in recorded history.

There wasn't a whole lot of news on John, I didn't even know it was a Category 3 until yesterday.

The after-action for Hurricane Otis noted that storm was probably the worse forecasting miss in recent history. I think they cited the lack of buoys and meteorological instruments in the area.

Yeah, there is not nearly as much data available in that part of the Pacific. Unfortunately, the NHC did not handle John well either, as they were very slow to catch onto the fact it was rapidly intensifying. By the time NHC upgraded it to a hurricane, it had already had a pinhole eye for about 12 hours.

https://x.com/WillWeatherRVA/status/1838268984791056787

[bing101]

More from Tampa Related to TS Helene

[PColumbus73]

NHC discussion indicates that Helene will be at minimum a Category 3 at landfall.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/252056.shtml?

[Alex]

Hurricane John is back, and forecast to make a second landfall in Mexico. This is a very unique storm in that it rapidly strengthened to a Category 3 hurricane before making landfall, dissipated over land, then drifted south back over the Pacific Ocean and reorganized. Furthermore, maybe similar to Otis last Fall, the initial forecast had John making landfall northeastward as a tropical storm and dissipating over land. Instead it went north and ramped up to a hurricane.

Hurricane John was at Category 3 strength around 1100 miles from then PTC 9. That was a scenario I've not noted before where a major hurricane was making landfall in the Pacific basin while one was forecast to form relatively close in the Atlantic basin.

Had a squall go through here from Hurricane Helene and that is probably it until 2 pm or so. Some tidal flooding already underway along Bayshore Boulevard in Tampa and in Gulfport.

[PColumbus73]

Two seemingly under-forecasted major hurricanes is a problem. The NHC discussion didn't anticipate John to be a major hurricane until 8 hours before landfall.

[1995hoo]

That graphic includes what looks strikingly like a pair of titties.

https://x.com/capitalweather/status/1839406202398351574

[bing101]

https://www.11alive.com/article/news/local/2-children-in-washington-county-dead-after-tropical-storm-helene/93-fae1df6f-c0c2-45a4-a7a3-4eaab9cbdb2e

Georgia faces fallout from Helene.

[PColumbus73]

I've seen a couple photos of I-40 being washed out through the Blue Ridge Mountains, been seeing reports that basically all the roads crossing the mountains are closed in North Carolina and Tennessee

[wriddle082]

I've seen a couple photos of I-40 being washed out through the Blue Ridge Mountains, been seeing reports that basically all the roads crossing the mountains are closed in North Carolina and Tennessee

Yes the eastbound lanes of I-40 through the Smokies near the NC/TN border have been washed away by a swollen Pigeon River.  And I-26 is also damaged in the Erwin, TN area.  So there is at least no intact interstate route between NC and TN.  I assume the damage is much worse along the non-interstates in that region.

[rickmastfan67]

I've seen a couple photos of I-40 being washed out through the Blue Ridge Mountains, been seeing reports that basically all the roads crossing the mountains are closed in North Carolina and Tennessee

Yes the eastbound lanes of I-40 through the Smokies near the NC/TN border have been washed away by a swollen Pigeon River.  And I-26 is also damaged in the Erwin, TN area.  So there is at least no intact interstate route between NC and TN.  I assume the damage is much worse along the non-interstates in that region.

Well, at least 1 bridge collapse so far.

TN-107.

[bing101]

Helene was last reported to be in Kentucky.

[CtrlAltDel]

And I-26 is also damaged in the Erwin, TN area.

No argument there:

[epzik8]

My heart goes out to WNC

[bing101]

Another Tropical Storm approaches the SouthEast US. 

[bing101]

https://www.wpbf.com/article/florida-tracking-joyce-computer-models-maps/62409340

Here is one on Joyce.

[bing101]

https://apnews.com/article/typhoon-krathon-philippines-taiwan-de393349970fa4907ccedb9f22cecd8f

https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/taiwan-issues-land-warning-ahead-typhoon-krathon-2024-09-29/

Typhoon Krathon hits Philippines and Taiwan.

[bing101]

Here are the fallout on Helene. 

[bing101]

[bing101]

https://apnews.com/article/hurricane-kirk-tropical-weather-atlantic-0f8b0e346325e2dca6c4c8119f6c1b14

This time Tropical Storm Kirk is of interest here.

[bing101]

https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/05/weather/tropical-storm-milton-florida-gulf-of-mexico/index.html

Update watch out for Tropical storm Milton.