How long will it take for route numbers to vanish?

[Max Rockatansky]

You hit the nail on the head, it's something that's a far flung in terms of happening.  I seem to recall there were similar seniments about flying cars making roads unnecessary at some point but obviously that technology proved impractical.  So basically going back to the main question posed by the OP, we're looking at several generations of use before things like road signage become irrelevant and there is full road-way automation.  There is still so many hurdles that can make the automation technology plateau or sputter out completely that really can't be foreseen in it's present form.  If anything is true it's certain that the automation technology would be completely dependent on GPS guidance.  So what happens if you don't get the software upgrade and your car decides to take you down a road that no longer exists or was pulverized for an expansion project?  For the foreseeable future I can't even see allowing for full automation that can't be intervened upon by the human occupant of the vehicle.  Even planes require the pilot to be paying attention and prepared to intervene when necessary.

I remember watching the Discovery channel with my brothers as a kid (maybe 10 years ago) saying there would be widespread use of flying cars around 2012, and we were so pumped. What a bunch of bogus that turned out to be

The ironic thing is that it would likely take full automation for the whole idea of flying cars to become viable again.  In the air a you'd be traveling faster and a crash that would normally be just a fender bender on the ground suddenly becomes leathal when you plummet out of the sky.  I always thought it was funny that Sci Fi movies like Back to the Future Part 2, the Fifth Element, and Star Wars episode 2 still had humans controlling the wheel/flight stick in skyway traffic jams.  Then something like Minority Report comes out and is probably somewhat accurate to what you might see 50 years from now....physics pre-cogs aside of course.

[US 81]

I find myself wondering about way-finding to points on the road itself, such as for EMS/Fire/Law Enforcement to find the sites of collisions, or for tow trucks to find the sites where vehicles are broken down. So, we still need mile-markers (or perhaps, kilometer-markers) or something similar along designated routes, or some other system to identify the whole route not just the endpoints. Then again, I can see some evolution where these become internal systems for highway dept personnel, first responders and the like, and not so much for the general public.

I remember in Texas in the 1990s a lot of county roads were named, having previously only been numbered. So this type of thing has happened, sort of, on a small scale.  But the bigger highways have multiple jurisdictions and it seems - to this lay person - like it would be simpler to keep numerical designations.

[kalvado]

I find myself wondering about way-finding to points on the road itself, such as for EMS/Fire/Law Enforcement to find the sites of collisions, or for tow trucks to find the sites where vehicles are broken down. So, we still need mile-markers (or perhaps, kilometer-markers) or something similar along designated routes, or some other system to identify the whole route not just the endpoints. Then again, I can see some evolution where these become internal systems for highway dept personnel, first responders and the like, and not so much for the general public.

I remember in Texas in the 1990s a lot of county roads were named, having previously only been numbered. So this type of thing has happened, sort of, on a small scale.  But the bigger highways have multiple jurisdictions and it seems - to this lay person - like it would be simpler to keep numerical designations.

Well, many cell phone apps have convenient "send location" features. Skype, Wase, viber, etc. - it can be pretty handy if you're trying to meet someone in a bigger area. That is way more accurate than any rt. number or milepost (which can be confusing). And with both phones and cars growing smarter, I expect that would only grow.
As a matter of fact, the other day  I had Waze trying to call (I assume 911) when I made it into the not-yet-mapped exit off the highway. Poor thing assumed I am in a ditch and need to be rescued. Laughter aside, that is potentially life saving technology, and it is closer than it seems.

[hm insulators]

I remember watching the Discovery channel with my brothers as a kid (maybe 10 years ago) saying there would be widespread use of flying cars around 2012, and we were so pumped. What a bunch of bogus that turned out to be

They've been blabbing about the arrival of flying cars since at least the 1940s, and of course nothing to show for it. Fascinating vision, though: Commuters in their flying cars blabbing on their cell phones or texting, crashing into a tree here, dropping through a roof there, getting tangled in high-voltage power lines. It stirs the blood just to think of it.

[silverback1065]

with this logic, why name roads at all?  anyway, once you leave the city, routes with numbers have only one name USXX, SRXX, etc. I don't see why we should get rid of them, I'll believe it when I see it when driverless cars being the normal.  I can't imagine how much they'll cost. 

[bzakharin]

I've seen this assertion made many times. Oh, everyone uses GPS, they don't even know what road they're on, etc. Are there statistics to support this? Do people use GPS on a daily commute? If not, how do they know where to go? For a longer commute, I bet exit and route numbers are important. For me, there are several exits along my commute route that look alike. If I stop paying attention to the exits for a while (it's a 60 mile commute), I could easily take the wrong one. What about checking traffic before leaving? You need to know what roads to look for, right? I am not even discussing inaccurate and out of date info on GPS's.

In a world with 100% self driving cars the proposal makes slightly more sense, but as mentioned this is quite a ways off.

[jeffandnicole]

I've seen this assertion made many times. Oh, everyone uses GPS, they don't even know what road they're on, etc. Are there statistics to support this? Do people use GPS on a daily commute? If not, how do they know where to go? For a longer commute, I bet exit and route numbers are important. For me, there are several exits along my commute route that look alike. If I stop paying attention to the exits for a while (it's a 60 mile commute), I could easily take the wrong one. What about checking traffic before leaving? You need to know what roads to look for, right? I am not even discussing inaccurate and out of date info on GPS's.

In a world with 100% self driving cars the proposal makes slightly more sense, but as mentioned this is quite a ways off.

I think people way overestimate how many people use the GPS. Actually, I think people way over-estimate and under-estimate a lot of things...and it usually depends on their point of view if they use it or not, or if they like it or not.

[silverback1065]

I've seen this assertion made many times. Oh, everyone uses GPS, they don't even know what road they're on, etc. Are there statistics to support this? Do people use GPS on a daily commute? If not, how do they know where to go? For a longer commute, I bet exit and route numbers are important. For me, there are several exits along my commute route that look alike. If I stop paying attention to the exits for a while (it's a 60 mile commute), I could easily take the wrong one. What about checking traffic before leaving? You need to know what roads to look for, right? I am not even discussing inaccurate and out of date info on GPS's.

In a world with 100% self driving cars the proposal makes slightly more sense, but as mentioned this is quite a ways off.

I think people way overestimate how many people use the GPS. Actually, I think people way over-estimate and under-estimate a lot of things...and it usually depends on their point of view if they use it or not, or if they like it or not.

I agree, especially when they say new technology will replace certain things.

[GaryV]

I've seen this assertion made many times. Oh, everyone uses GPS, they don't even know what road they're on, etc.   //snip//

In a world with 100% self driving cars the proposal makes slightly more sense, but as mentioned this is quite a ways off.

Even if YOU don't know what road you're on, the GPS still has to know it.  If we got rid of all the Interstate and other highway numbers, how would the GPS tell you to go?  "Turn right to get on the freeway, and then drive for 257 miles."

Same thing for a self-driving car.  The car has to figure out that a road can be used.  If it's not in the database because it doesn't have a number or name, it's like it doesn't exist.

[kalvado]

I've seen this assertion made many times. Oh, everyone uses GPS, they don't even know what road they're on, etc.   //snip//

In a world with 100% self driving cars the proposal makes slightly more sense, but as mentioned this is quite a ways off.

Even if YOU don't know what road you're on, the GPS still has to know it.  If we got rid of all the Interstate and other highway numbers, how would the GPS tell you to go?  "Turn right to get on the freeway, and then drive for 257 miles."

Same thing for a self-driving car.  The car has to figure out that a road can be used.  If it's not in the database because it doesn't have a number or name, it's like it doesn't exist.

many GPS programs seem to be perfectly fine with unnamed driveways on parking lots.

[vdeane]

Mapping systems generally store everything with a primary key that is some time of number and used internally.  Such a number would not be useful for navigation, however; it would be more like "take the second right in 500 feet and then drive 5 miles".  Some people might cause the GPS to recalculate.  Self-driving cars won't care.

[epzik8]

Did I say I hate GPS? What I meant is that I actually find my phone's GPS useful in certain cases, such as when I'm on surface streets in a town or city that's not close to my house. And also, I refuse to believe that any of my fellow Americans are so stupid that they don't know how to get around their own city. I really can't even blame people for not knowing how to read maps in this day and age. What annoys me is that they're not interested in learning how to read maps. Plus, they seem to think learning how to read a map is much harder than it really is. You just have to pick out the place where you live on the map, pick out the place you're going to, and then you'll realize "Oh, I can just make my way to this red line and follow that to this blue line; that's the Interstate, and if I get off at Exit 10 I can take the orange line north all the way to my destination". I think that if you want to use GPS when you're someplace far away from your house, that's fine, but you have to at least know the name or number of the road you're driving on. But GPS units usually want to force us to take a certain route, and that's why it's a good idea to know how to read a map on paper so you can figure out a potentially better route that goes against the GPS.

[silverback1065]

Did I say I hate GPS? What I meant is that I actually find my phone's GPS useful in certain cases, such as when I'm on surface streets in a town or city that's not close to my house. And also, I refuse to believe that any of my fellow Americans are so stupid that they don't know how to get around their own city. I really can't even blame people for not knowing how to read maps in this day and age. What annoys me is that they're not interested in learning how to read maps. Plus, they seem to think learning how to read a map is much harder than it really is. You just have to pick out the place where you live on the map, pick out the place you're going to, and then you'll realize "Oh, I can just make my way to this red line and follow that to this blue line; that's the Interstate, and if I get off at Exit 10 I can take the orange line north all the way to my destination". I think that if you want to use GPS when you're someplace far away from your house, that's fine, but you have to at least know the name or number of the road you're driving on. But GPS units usually want to force us to take a certain route, and that's why it's a good idea to know how to read a map on paper so you can figure out a potentially better route that goes against the GPS.

seriously? I feel most people couldn't tell you how to get to places in the city they live, they navigate by monuments instead of street names. 

[kphoger]

In a world with 100% self driving cars the proposal makes slightly more sense,

In a world with 100% self driving cars that have no option for turning the self-drive mode off the proposal makes slightly more sense.  Assuming, of course, that motorcycles are prohibited and piggy-backed tractor-trailers are somehow found to be completely safe as driverless vehicles...

Actually, I think people way over-estimate and under-estimate a lot of things...and it usually depends on their point of view if they use it or not, or if they like it or not.

I think you're overestimating how much people overestimate things.