Coronavirus pandemic

[Tonytone]

iPhone

[kalvado]

One thing to consider when talking about 1%:
China and Iran seemingly not doing funeral, but body disposal. Italy is to come.
In Italy people are dying without being assessed, not even treated. Triage sends those above a certain age to "hopeless" right away.
I'm afraid,  traces in general attitude towards human life will be left after everything is over.

[stormwatch7721]

This Coronavirus stuff is giving chills down my spine

LGL322DL

[Max Rockatansky]

Spooky Scary Skeletons give me shivers down my spine:

[jeffandnicole]

One thing to consider when talking about 1%:
China and Iran seemingly not doing funeral, but body disposal. Italy is to come.
In Italy people are dying without being assessed, not even treated. Triage sends those above a certain age to "hopeless" right away.
I'm afraid,  traces in general attitude towards human life will be left after everything is over.

And yet, people still believe Europe is doing so much better than the US because they have free healthcare.   

[hotdogPi]

One thing to consider when talking about 1%:
China and Iran seemingly not doing funeral, but body disposal. Italy is to come.
In Italy people are dying without being assessed, not even treated. Triage sends those above a certain age to "hopeless" right away.
I'm afraid,  traces in general attitude towards human life will be left after everything is over.

And yet, people still believe Europe is doing so much better than the US because they have free healthcare.   

As I said before, Norway, Sweden, and Denmark have extremely few deaths compared to the number of cases, although it's not quite as good as when I said it before.



Madagascar and Greenland still aren't infected, which makes me think that we live in the game world of Plague, Inc.

[kalvado]

One thing to consider when talking about 1%:
China and Iran seemingly not doing funeral, but body disposal. Italy is to come.
In Italy people are dying without being assessed, not even treated. Triage sends those above a certain age to "hopeless" right away.
I'm afraid,  traces in general attitude towards human life will be left after everything is over.

And yet, people still believe Europe is doing so much better than the US because they have free healthcare.   

Please hold on any comparison until intensive care is back to normal operations, some time in 2022 I assume. I predicted 1 million cases in US by May 1 upthread, and I still think that will be the case. That is when shit will start hitting the fan.

[kalvado]

Madagascar and Greenland still aren't infected, which makes me think that we live in the game world of Plague, Inc.

yeah, they overdid this ad campaign...

[stormwatch7721]

One thing to consider when talking about 1%:
China and Iran seemingly not doing funeral, but body disposal. Italy is to come.
In Italy people are dying without being assessed, not even treated. Triage sends those above a certain age to "hopeless" right away.
I'm afraid,  traces in general attitude towards human life will be left after everything is over.

And yet, people still believe Europe is doing so much better than the US because they have free healthcare.   

Please hold on any comparison until intensive care is back to normal operations, some time in 2022 I assume. I predicted 1 million cases in US by May 1 upthread, and I still think that will be the case. That is when shit will start hitting the fan.

Hence why I scared

LGL322DL

[KEVIN_224]

https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/coronavirus/20-connecticut-residents-test-positive-for-covid-19/2238718/

20 cases here in Connecticut at last check. 15 cases in Fairfield County, 3 in Litchfield, one in New Haven and, closest to me, 1 case in Hartford County. A woman in her 80s from Rocky Hill.

[Bruce]

It should be mentioned that South Korea is probably the most reliable source for true statistics on the spread and fatality rate for COVID-19, as the national healthcare system has mandated testing of all age groups and made it readily available.

Both things that the U.S. is way behind on. Washington is up to 650 known confirmed cases but the actual number is likely several times that.

[US71]

On a side note,  the local 24 hour Walmarts will be closing between 11pm and 6am for restocking and cleaning.

[J N Winkler]

China and Iran seemingly not doing funeral, but body disposal. Italy is to come.

I'd contest these assumptions for China and Italy.

As a general rule of thumb, deaths per year in a developed country in peacetime are about 1% of population.  Most of the deaths from coronavirus have been in Wuhan, which has a population of 8 million.  The local death management industry is therefore geared up to handle an approximate "base load" of 80,000 deaths a year, or 20,000 deaths a quarter.  3,000 additional deaths in about three months is an overload factor of about 15%, which I would not expect to trigger problems.

In Italy the bulk of the deaths have been in Lombardy:  1441 deaths for the whole country currently, 966 deaths in Lombardy.  The region has a population of 10 million, so its death management industry is set up to handle 100,000 deaths annually, or 2,000 deaths a week, or 300 deaths a day.  966 deaths over a period of three weeks (first death in the region was on February 22) is an overload factor of about 16%.  The more serious problem, as I see it, is that the rate of death is accelerating, with March 1 being the last day with deaths in the single figures and most of the recent days having deaths in the low three figures.  Yesterday (March 13) there were 146 deaths, which is an overload factor for the day of 50%.

Philadelphia in 1918 is a useful counterexample.  It had a population of about 1.6 million, and during a six-week period in October and November 1918 it had 60,000 influenza cases with 12,000 deaths.  The death management industry was geared to handle only 16,000 deaths annually, or roughly 4,000 over a quarter and 2,000 over a six-week period.  12,000 deaths over six weeks thus translates to a factor of six (500%) overload.  It is no wonder they were collecting dead bodies by wagon, tagging them, and laying them in mass graves, including one at 2nd and Luzerne that was dug by the Bureau of Highways (PennDOT's ancestor?).

I'm afraid,  traces in general attitude towards human life will be left after everything is over.

I think this crisis will push us to realize that, even in rich countries, what we might think of as a dignified send-off is largely the preserve of the middle and upper classes.  Even when there is not a crisis on, the poor get disposed of in a fairly perfunctory way--I've seen YouTube video of three dead bodies being loaded into a Matthews cremator at the same time.

As for mass graves being dug for coronavirus victims, there is little doubt that is happening right now in Iran, and I expect to see more of it once the virus becomes well established in Africa.

[1995hoo]

My wife missed a fight over toilet paper at our local Walmart by five minutes.

[kalvado]

China and Iran seemingly not doing funeral, but body disposal. Italy is to come.

I'd contest these assumptions for China and Italy.

Actually leaked videos from Iran are not that bad either. Certainly not plowing meat.
There were rumors about Wuhan cremation systems working over capacity, but those are just that, rumors. With reduced hands on deck due to disease and isolation, things may  be not smooth.
It is more about safety above all, as bodies are contagious for days. So sealed body bags, relatives limited access to dead. Which is, again, yet another layer of stress.
And yet we may see multifold demand to capacity ratio in near future.

[golden eagle]

We have six cases here in Mississippi. The closest one to me is in Copiah County, about a half hour south.

There has been a death from the virus in the New Orleans area.

[ozarkman417]

Is anyone else's subway doing this?


SM-G965U

[Max Rockatansky]

^^^

Yes, and even the Starbuck's around here aren't letting you use your own cup.

[Rothman]

People do know some stores will still be open right?

You would hope...

I don't.  I want the idiot panickers' to be sitting with their rotting food in their homes while I can eventually go shopping on my normal schedule.

[Brandon]

Philadelphia in 1918 is a useful counterexample.  It had a population of about 1.6 million, and during a six-week period in October and November 1918 it had 60,000 influenza cases with 12,000 deaths.  The death management industry was geared to handle only 16,000 deaths annually, or roughly 4,000 over a quarter and 2,000 over a six-week period.  12,000 deaths over six weeks thus translates to a factor of six (500%) overload.  It is no wonder they were collecting dead bodies by wagon, tagging them, and laying them in mass graves, including one at 2nd and Luzerne that was dug by the Bureau of Highways (PennDOT's ancestor?).

1918 Philadelphia is also a good case for why large events should be delayed or canceled outright.  The reason things got so bad is that the organizers of the Liberty Bond parade and rally went on with the event even though they were told that it might not be a good idea due to the flu pandemic going on.  They went ahead anyway, and many, many more people got sick with the flu than otherwise might have as they attended the parade and rally.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu
https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/flu-epidemic-hits-philadelphia
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/03/12/pandemic-parade-flu-coronavirus/

[TheHighwayMan3561]

I support social distancing, but I find the increasing threat of city/state enforced curfews to be very concerning. Shutting down bars and restaurants is acceptable. Forcing people to stay home overnight is unhelpful and not going to stop the spread of the virus.

[Scott5114]

I support social distancing, but I find the increasing threat of city/state enforced curfews to be very concerning. Shutting down bars and restaurants is acceptable. Forcing people to stay home overnight is unhelpful and not going to stop the spread of the virus.

Curfews are incredibly silly. I work swing shift, so my normal sleeping schedule is to wake up in the early afternoon and go to bed around 5am or so. That means that I can do my shopping at 11:30pm when I'm on the way home from work and thus socially distance myself from far more people than I'd be able to if I was forced to do it during normal business hours.

[bugo]

I'm going to say something you may not like, but to hell with avoiding domestic travel.

With all the panic going on, fares for flights and hotel rates are stupid cheap.  I saw some round-trip flights from BDL to LAX for $250.  I saw a bunch of hotels in Midtown Manhattan going for $150 or less, many below $100.  If you're healthy, I say take a chance and go somewhere.  If you get the virus, you get the virus.

And you could spread the virus to somebody who isn't healthy enough to fight it. Your attitude is extremely selfish and not cool at all. If you truly don't care if others die because of your incompetence, then that tells me a lot about what kind of person you are. It's the whole "I got mine, fuck you" attitude.

[bugo]

Pour Robitussin on it.

Didn't Chris Rock do a skit once that involved his grand parents trying to use Robitussin to heal a broken bone?

That's what I was referencing. Good catch.

[MikeTheActuary]

And you could spread the virus to somebody who isn't healthy enough to fight it. Your attitude is extremely selfish and not cool at all. If you truly don't care if others die because of your incompetence, then that tells me a lot about what kind of person you are. It's the whole "I got mine, fuck you" attitude.

Note also that it's not just the "you could spread the virus to a high risk person" risk (since it's tempting to rebut with "but I don't come into contact with any such people" or "those people should go into isolation"); it's "you could spread the virus to others who come into contact with high risk people".

The its-all-about-my-comfort-and-convenience attitude is a major reason why entire countries are going into lockdown.  It's a step being taken because too many people cannot be trusted to do their part in slowing the spread of the virus to a manageable rate.

(Or, I might just be moderately annoyed because there was a big party last night on my floor of the hotel I'm currently at.  At one point, there was a small crowd of 20 somethings doing the opposite of "social distancing" outside my door.  A couple of them were coughing....)