Coronavirus pandemic

[Bruce]

It's impressive to me how Washington State went from being, basically, the epicenter, to being just another state. WA is dark on the maps, but not any darker than quite a few other states, and lighter than Michigan, New York, Louisiana, and New Jersey.

Have we started to hit the upper curve? Per day increases in cases seem to be decreasing percentage-wise.

There's an ongoing outbreak at the state prison in Monroe, so expect the numbers to rise again.

[jakeroot]

Problem is what to do next. We cannot seat at home forever...

Indeed. At what point do we conclude that social distancing is no longer the reason for declining cases? I do not want to be the one to make that call.

It's impressive to me how Washington State went from being, basically, the epicenter, to being just another state. WA is dark on the maps, but not any darker than quite a few other states, and lighter than Michigan, New York, Louisiana, and New Jersey.

Have we started to hit the upper curve? Per day increases in cases seem to be decreasing percentage-wise.

There's an ongoing outbreak at the state prison in Monroe, so expect the numbers to rise again.

Faaaaaantastic.

[webny99]

It's impressive to me how Washington State went from being, basically, the epicenter, to being just another state. WA is dark on the maps, but not any darker than quite a few other states, and lighter than Michigan, New York, Louisiana, and New Jersey.

Probably due to a few things: It was caught early enough that it didn't spread for weeks uncontrolled. Social distancing was implemented much earlier than in other areas. And there's a large Asian American population, especially in the Seattle area. I don't want to read too much into that, but I think it's fair to say that Asian Americans were probably aware much sooner of the severity of the crisis, and more willing (and prepared) to listen to the government and do their part to social distance.

But by far the biggest reason is that they just haven't ramped up testing like NY and NJ have, so there's (likely) more unreported cases. That's not to say WA has done a bad job at all, it just goes to show just how much testing has ramped up in the NYC area relative to the rest of the country.

[kalvado]

Problem is what to do next. We cannot seat at home forever...

Indeed. At what point do we conclude that social distancing is no longer the reason for declining cases? I do not want to be the one to make that call.

Not until the vaccine is available. What is needed is a controlled release of restrictions, often on a case by case basis.
But a lot of things would touch fundamental operations of society, and that would be hard to implement. See that pastor suing the state on religious freedom issues. My personal opinion that while the state has a rock solid scientific and societal reason to do what they do, constitutionally that stands no chance at all.

[bandit957]

A family member told me a few days ago that there's going to be pushback against the restrictions from every part of the political spectrum. Well, the pushback needs to happen soon. Some of the most severe restrictions just can't continue. They just can't. It's way out of hand.

[wxfree]

Problem is what to do next. We cannot seat at home forever...

Indeed. At what point do we conclude that social distancing is no longer the reason for declining cases? I do not want to be the one to make that call.

Not until the vaccine is available. What is needed is a controlled release of restrictions, often on a case by case basis.
But a lot of things would touch fundamental operations of society, and that would be hard to implement. See that pastor suing the state on religious freedom issues. My personal opinion that while the state has a rock solid scientific and societal reason to do what they do, constitutionally that stands no chance at all.

The facts will tell us when the reason for the decline is different.  That isn't something we just conclude because we want to change strategies.  Right now, separation is the only tool we have to prevent a catastrophic spread.  At some point, the widespread availability of testing and selective quarantines will let us start to go back outside while outbreaks are contained.  The availability of an effective treatment would make outbreaks more manageable.

After Katrina, I remember Andrew Napolitano being asked about forcing people to leave their own homes.  He said it would require showing that the person presented a danger to others by the act of remaining in his own home.  That would be very difficult to show.  Showing that large gatherings of people present a danger to those people and to the whole community is is basically a foregone conclusion right now.  As long as religious groups aren't being singled out, I don't see a constitutional issue.  No one thinks that a religion that practices human sacrifice should get an exemption from laws intended to secure public safety because of freedom of religion.  Your freedom of religion and freedom of speech and other freedoms don't exempt you from laws that are intended to protect people, in the least restrictive way possible, and apply to everyone equally.

[Max Rockatansky]

Popped up on my Facebook feed today, South Park throwback:

[Duke87]

Problem is what to do next. We cannot seat at home forever...

The way I suspect this works out is once the caseload gets low enough, we switch from broad strategies to more targeted strategies.

This might mean, for example, that people are generally permitted to go about most of their day to day activities as normal, but if someone tests positive, you instantly put the surrounding area under lockdown, as well as the area around anywhere that person has been recently. You then send CDC staff (or delegates thereof) door to door testing everyone in these local areas. If everyone in the house tests negative, they get cleared to go out again. If anyone in the house tests positive, or refuses to consent to being tested, then everyone in the house is quarantined for two weeks.

Meanwhile in order to keep the number of occasions where this happens down, large gatherings continue to be banned and people continue to be told they shouldn't undertake any non-essential travel outside of the general area where they live, until it stops happening altogether.

We can't do things like this now because the virus is all over the place and we can't test everyone. But once we have it down to only popping up here and there occasionally, we can play that kind of whack-a-mole with it.

[RobbieL2415]

FWIW the first round of rebate checks are supposed to go out this morning.  The IRS said this first wave will be to people who already have direct deposit set up from past tax returns.  That about 60M people.

[Max Rockatansky]

Apparently respiratory diseases was the number three likeliest thing to kill you even before Coronavirus according to the NSC:

https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/all-injuries/preventable-death-overview/odds-of-dying/

Heart disease barely beats out cancer in the odds.  I seem to recall both were 1/7 for a really long time. 

[Bruce]

It's impressive to me how Washington State went from being, basically, the epicenter, to being just another state. WA is dark on the maps, but not any darker than quite a few other states, and lighter than Michigan, New York, Louisiana, and New Jersey.

Probably due to a few things: It was caught early enough that it didn't spread for weeks uncontrolled. Social distancing was implemented much earlier than in other areas. And there's a large Asian American population, especially in the Seattle area. I don't want to read too much into that, but I think it's fair to say that Asian Americans were probably aware much sooner of the severity of the crisis, and more willing (and prepared) to listen to the government and do their part to social distance.

But by far the biggest reason is that they just haven't ramped up testing like NY and NJ have, so there's (likely) more unreported cases. That's not to say WA has done a bad job at all, it just goes to show just how much testing has ramped up in the NYC area relative to the rest of the country.

The virus actually did spread around the Seattle area beginning in January with the first detected case (and likely others on the same flight from China). The Fred Hutch Center compared samples from the first case and a case on February 28 and found that they shared a direct connection. (Source)

And I'd probably credit the traditional Seattle freeze as much as the Asian influence (which also played into the freeze). We know how to stay home for long periods of time, and we are ready to drop contact at a moment's notice.

[Scott5114]

A family member told me a few days ago that there's going to be pushback against the restrictions from every part of the political spectrum. Well, the pushback needs to happen soon. Some of the most severe restrictions just can't continue. They just can't. It's way out of hand.

Well, the pushback doesn't need to happen later. Some of the most severe restrictions just can continue. They just can. It's way in hand.

[kalvado]

A family member told me a few days ago that there's going to be pushback against the restrictions from every part of the political spectrum. Well, the pushback needs to happen soon. Some of the most severe restrictions just can't continue. They just can't. It's way out of hand.

Well, the pushback doesn't need to happen later. Some of the most severe restrictions just can continue. They just can. It's way in hand.

Total quarantine is good for one thing - extinguishing initial flare out. NYC will stabilize in another 10-15 days, many other areas didn't flare that bad. We don't really hope to totally eliminate the problem worldwide. Once spread - it is out there. Took decades and centuries to eliminate smallpox - with a good vaccine and all that.
NYC had official infection rate of about 1%, probably 2-5% real, and it is very bad for hospitals. If we expect to keep hospital admissions flat, it will take 14 to 35 times as long to achieve 70% herd immunity.  4 months to 2 years
News flash: if farmers are not in field beginning of May, famine will overshadow infection problems.. 
So, we need to learn to coexist with the virus. Or things will turn much worse pretty quickly.

[Rothman]

...and deaths in NY are back up.  The one or two day decline in the rate was a "blip," as Cuomo mentioned as a possibility.

[NWI_Irish96]

...and deaths in NY are back up.  The one or two day decline in the rate was a "blip," as Cuomo mentioned as a possibility.

The problem is this thing takes so long to run its cycle.  You can get infected, be asymptomatic for 7-10 days and then have mild/moderate symptoms for another 7 days before you require hospitalization.  You can hang on in the hospital for up to 21 days before dying.  That means you can go over a month with an infection before dying, which means it can be a month from the time stay at home orders were implemented until we start seeing the results. 

For the states that were earliest to implement stay at home orders, we should be getting close to the point where everybody who has it has either recovered or is in a hospital. 

[ixnay]

It's impressive to me how Washington State went from being, basically, the epicenter, to being just another state. WA is dark on the maps, but not any darker than quite a few other states, and lighter than Michigan, New York, Louisiana, and New Jersey.

Have we started to hit the upper curve? Per day increases in cases seem to be decreasing percentage-wise.

There's an ongoing outbreak at the state prison in Monroe, so expect the numbers to rise again.

SE of Everett, NE of Seattle.

ixnay

[kwellada]

I think Inslee made the right choice in extending the stay at home order till May, which should really help in pushing us well past the peak in this state.  Afterwards, people still need to make good choices in how much they go out, interact in groups and personal hygiene.  Until there is an effective vaccine or some strong evidence that herd immunity is prevalent, we need to remain cautious. 

[hbelkins]

These pastors are putting their congregation in compromised situations. But they are trying to play the "Freedom of Religion" card with law enforcement.

No, they aren't. People can make their own decisions about whether or not to attend services.

A family member told me a few days ago that there's going to be pushback against the restrictions from every part of the political spectrum. Well, the pushback needs to happen soon. Some of the most severe restrictions just can't continue. They just can't. It's way out of hand.

I agree with you. I don't think the general public or the business community will put up with this much longer than the end of the month. People want to work, they want to travel, businesses want to open, churches want to hold services, etc. There will be a revolt and the government will be powerless to stop it. They can't arrest every shopkeeper or pastor who opens up in defiance of an executive order that's likely unconstitutional. I think you'll see a massive pushback by the first weekend of May.

[bandit957]

I agree with you. I don't think the general public or the business community will put up with this much longer than the end of the month. People want to work, they want to travel, businesses want to open, churches want to hold services, etc. There will be a revolt and the government will be powerless to stop it. They can't arrest every shopkeeper or pastor who opens up in defiance of an executive order that's likely unconstitutional. I think you'll see a massive pushback by the first weekend of May.

I'm in no hurry for huge public gatherings. But limiting basic travel and simple assembly just rips everything out of society. And I don't even think it was effective. States or countries that issued major lockdowns still had more and more cases for a long time afterward. There should have been plenty of time to reduce new cases dramatically.

I wouldn't be that worried about the economy if I knew that a remedy for it would be enacted. The biggest threat is social. You cannot have a society under a lockdown. There have already been huge increases in domestic violence and suicides caused by lockdowns, and there will be more problems discovered in the long term.

[jeffandnicole]

These pastors are putting their congregation in compromised situations. But they are trying to play the "Freedom of Religion" card with law enforcement.

No, they aren't. People can make their own decisions about whether or not to attend services.

A family member told me a few days ago that there's going to be pushback against the restrictions from every part of the political spectrum. Well, the pushback needs to happen soon. Some of the most severe restrictions just can't continue. They just can't. It's way out of hand.

I agree with you. I don't think the general public or the business community will put up with this much longer than the end of the month. People want to work, they want to travel, businesses want to open, churches want to hold services, etc. There will be a revolt and the government will be powerless to stop it. They can't arrest every shopkeeper or pastor who opens up in defiance of an executive order that's likely unconstitutional. I think you'll see a massive pushback by the first weekend of May.

While people will be itching to get out of the house, there will be a general fear of the virus.  Store owners aren't being arrested per say, but rather served with a summons.  When their court date is held, that's when they'll be fined or jailed, depending on the nature of the offense.  But since most people want to be on the good side of the law, you're not going to see a rioting-type effect in the streets of people just ignoring the government's wishes.

[DaBigE]

And now, most of Wisconsin's State Parks will be indefinitely closed as of tomorrow: https://dnr.wi.gov/covid-19/. Looks like our annual admission sticker has just turned into a government donation.

[vdeane]

...and deaths in NY are back up.  The one or two day decline in the rate was a "blip," as Cuomo mentioned as a possibility.

The problem is this thing takes so long to run its cycle.  You can get infected, be asymptomatic for 7-10 days and then have mild/moderate symptoms for another 7 days before you require hospitalization.  You can hang on in the hospital for up to 21 days before dying.  That means you can go over a month with an infection before dying, which means it can be a month from the time stay at home orders were implemented until we start seeing the results. 

For the states that were earliest to implement stay at home orders, we should be getting close to the point where everybody who has it has either recovered or is in a hospital. 

Exactly.  I would consider the number of new cases/hospitalizations as far more indicative of where we are on the curve than number of deaths.  Cases are to deaths as lightning is to thunder.

Problem is what to do next. We cannot seat at home forever...

The way I suspect this works out is once the caseload gets low enough, we switch from broad strategies to more targeted strategies.

This might mean, for example, that people are generally permitted to go about most of their day to day activities as normal, but if someone tests positive, you instantly put the surrounding area under lockdown, as well as the area around anywhere that person has been recently. You then send CDC staff (or delegates thereof) door to door testing everyone in these local areas. If everyone in the house tests negative, they get cleared to go out again. If anyone in the house tests positive, or refuses to consent to being tested, then everyone in the house is quarantined for two weeks.

Meanwhile in order to keep the number of occasions where this happens down, large gatherings continue to be banned and people continue to be told they shouldn't undertake any non-essential travel outside of the general area where they live, until it stops happening altogether.

We can't do things like this now because the virus is all over the place and we can't test everyone. But once we have it down to only popping up here and there occasionally, we can play that kind of whack-a-mole with it.

This is the phase that people concerned about civil liberties should really be worried about.  Big things like widespread shelter in place orders are too heavy-handed to keep up forever and too tied to circumstances that have guaranteed endpoints.  These lighter measures, not so much - so there is a danger that, just like the Patriot Act or the TSA, they become permanent (especially if coronavirus proves to be impossible to vaccinate against, as I fear may be the case with the reinfection statistics we've been seeing).  I for one do not want any part of living in a society where you can be going about your life and get put on lockdown without warning.  I'd rather keep the heavier measures for long enough to eradicate the disease in the US and then keep the borders closed to keep it from coming back until a vaccine or treatment is developed that allows a full return to normalcy than easing to lighter measures that stay around forever.

[kwellada]

then keep the borders closed to keep it from coming back until a vaccine or treatment is developed that allows a full return to normalcy than easing to lighter measures that stay around forever.

Actually, it's more likely other countries will close their borders to the US, given that this country leads the worlds in infections. 

[kalvado]

I'd rather keep the heavier measures for long enough to eradicate the disease in the US and then keep the borders closed to keep it from coming back until a vaccine or treatment is developed that allows a full return to normalcy than easing to lighter measures that stay around forever.

Forget eradication. Not really an option here.
Mutating virus to less severe disease is the best possible - but not guaranteed - case.

[webny99]

then keep the borders closed to keep it from coming back until a vaccine or treatment is developed that allows a full return to normalcy than easing to lighter measures that stay around forever.

Actually, it's more likely other countries will close their borders to the US, given that this country leads the worlds in reported infections.

Made a very important fix for you there.