Coronavirus pandemic

[kalvado]

More like worldwide drought.

I was assuming not every corner of the globe would lose a year's harvest.

I don't know how much spare crops world has. Would we be OK with 10% loss? 25%? 50%?
Apparently, using wheat and corn to feed people instead of chicken and cattle may help, but again, that may be an interesting development to see.

The other part of this equation is that the US and Canada provide much of the world's grain, be it soybeans, corn, or wheat.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maize#Production
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_wheat_production_statistics This one is most interesting and most telling, IMHO.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_wheat_exports
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_soybean_production

If we here in North America cannot produce grains, then a lot of the world will starve.

And if you think about many other places facing the same issue, things become even more interesting.

[qguy]

At the beginning of the crisis, the goal was to "flatten the curve." The purpose of flattening the curve was not to save lives. It was to reduce the number of COVID patients at any one time so that hospitals would not be overwhelmed.

By most accounts, we have successfully flattened the curve. In some states, or parts of states, hospitals were overwhelmed; in other states or parts of states, they weren't.

In either event, the curve was flattened. The thing about flattening the curve, though, is that it doesn't save lives. Flattening the curve merely lengthens it. IOW the area under the curve stays about the same. So we'll eventually see the same number of deaths from COVID than if we had done nothing, but across a longer time span.

Somewhere along the line, however, the goal morphed from "flattening the curve" to "saving lives." So now, we dare not restart the economy lest someone, anyone, dies from COVID. Well guess what, whatever we do, whenever we restart the economy, there were be more deaths.

The problem is, the longer we wait before we get the economic engine running again, the more businesses (especially small busniesses) will shutter permanently, the more jobs they create will be lost for good, the more lives will be ruined. If the goal stays "saving lives at all cost," we will end up in a depression that will result in more misery than twenty COVID crises.

We've been flattening the curve. Now it's time to care about people and get back to work. Like many people, I think we can do both. And I would hope that those who think we can do both would not be so easily accused of being cold-hearted bastards.

Someone upthread warn against distrusting government. Let me find it...

This crisis has, if nothing else, exposed a fundamental lack of trust by Americans in government. I'm not saying it's entirely unwarranted, but I am saying it's an incredible privilege to live in a democracy to begin with, and now is probably the most important time ever to just be trusting it, and letting this thing run its course. After all, there are much bigger issues at stake than one's own rights here. You would think the least one could do is not contribute to the problem by sowing more mistrust than there already is.

I respectfully disagree. The Founders thought it was important to distrust government. That's why they framed the constitution the way they did. A read of the Federalist Papers will convince anyone of their attitudes in that regard. They recognized that government, by its very nature, tends to expand, tends to overstep, tends to abuse the rights of the people. And the behavior of some of our governors has cast this issue in stark relief, with arbitrary and inconsistent restrictions and refusal to disclose the process by which decisions were made or how waivers were granted (my own governor of Pennsylvania being an example). Some governors have given us every reason to distrust them.

Our constitutional rights are important not only in happy times. Actually those rights are even more important in crisis times. Because it's in times of crisis that a government is most likely to abuse those rights, not in happy times. People need to be more vigilant, not less, during crises.

[kphoger]

The other part of this equation is that the US and Canada provide much of the world's grain, be it soybeans, corn, or wheat.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maize#Production
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_wheat_production_statistics This one is most interesting and most telling, IMHO.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_wheat_exports
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_soybean_production

If we here in North America cannot produce grains, then a lot of the world will starve.

I remember the drought of 2002.  While two friends and I were on a road trip from Chicago to southwestern Colorado, we stopped in for lunch at a farmhouse in northwestern Kansas, with family friends from when I had grown up there.  I asked them how much of that year's wheat harvest they were able to save.  The answer was "none of it".

Maybe I misunderstood the concern.  I thought the concern was that farmers would be put out of business.  That's why I suggested that, because most farmers plan ahead for bad yields and droughts every so often by such measures, they should be able to rebound from a lost year of harvest.  However, now I realize the concern may have been that we simply wouldn't have enough food because the loss of harvest would be more widespread than in the case of a drought.

[kphoger]

The Founders ... the constitution ... government ... rights ... abuse ...

If we keep discussing this, the thread will get locked.  I, for one, as much as I think it's important to discuss these things, don't want this thread to get locked.  I think it's very important for us to have a place to discuss this pandemic, and please don't be responsible for our losing that place.

[bandit957]

The fact that shutting down the country has already given someone here a possible heart attack is a good indication that it needs to end.

[kphoger]

The fact that shutting down the country has already given someone here a possible heart attack is a good indication that it needs to end.

You sure the timing wasn't just coincidental and nothing more?

[kalvado]

If the government did its job people wouldn't have to choose between safety and income.

That all depends on what you believe the role of government is, and that's quite overtly a political topic.  We've already been admonished to keep the politics out of this discussion, so let's let that one lie, OK?

The problem is that it shouldn't be political.  It shouldn't be a political issue as to whether or not the government takes care of people who can't work because it's not safe to do so.

It is, though.  It's the difference between big government and small government, between a large social safety net and a limited social safety net.  That's a political topic.  Not everyone believes it's the government's job to "take care" of you.  Enough said.

Perhaps I'm not framing it properly.  It's ridiculous that normal political positions, right or left, can't be set aside temporarily for a crisis.  It's a sign that people have let ideology override common sense.

Regardless of political standing, one has to assume that government resources are not infinite. There is a lot of money printing going on - whatever you call it. Do they use "loan from federal reserve" by now?
Regardless, those are dollars not backed up by any goods. That destabilizes the economy, that will have consequences.
The more such money enters the system, the harder those consequences will be.
Inflation would be just the first pass of the problem - and probably significant inflation.. 

[bandit957]

The fact that shutting down the country has already given someone here a possible heart attack is a good indication that it needs to end.

You sure the timing wasn't just coincidental and nothing more?

It wasn't coincidental. My heart started racing on March 17 or 18.

[hotdogPi]

The fact that shutting down the country has already given someone here a possible heart attack is a good indication that it needs to end.

You sure the timing wasn't just coincidental and nothing more?

It wasn't coincidental. My heart started racing on March 17 or 18.

That could still be coincidental.

[kphoger]

The fact that shutting down the country has already given someone here a possible heart attack is a good indication that it needs to end.

You sure the timing wasn't just coincidental and nothing more?

It wasn't coincidental. My heart started racing on March 17 or 18.

I wasn't questioning the when.  I was questioning the why.  Did the doctors agree that it could have been induced by the additional stress?

[bandit957]

I wasn't questioning the when.  I was questioning the why.  Did the doctors agree that it could have been induced by the additional stress?

They didn't say how or why it happened.

[qguy]

The Founders ... the constitution ... government ... rights ... abuse ...

If we keep discussing this, the thread will get locked.  I, for one, as much as I think it's important to discuss these things, don't want this thread to get locked.  I think it's very important for us to have a place to discuss this pandemic, and please don't be responsible for our losing that place.

I'm not advocating partisan politics. I was in part responding to a suggestion we should trust now more than ever. I was expressing more along the lines of "trust but verify." Along with data and approach to the data, it has direct bearing on the topic at hand.

As long as we do so respectfully, of course, I would hope we could discus the wisdom of that without the thread being locked.

[Max Rockatansky]

I wasn't questioning the when.  I was questioning the why.  Did the doctors agree that it could have been induced by the additional stress?

They didn't say how or why it happened.

What's going could be a contributing factor to an existing health concern.  Do you have a history of heart related disease or other related issues?  Sometimes you don't even know there is a problem until you have to see a Doctor for something closely related.  That's how I found out my EKG readings are all over the place. 

[kphoger]

Yes, but...

Let's try to steer back away from politics... this is not a roads-related post so the tolerance for politics is lower

(emphasis mine)

[bandit957]

What's going could be a contributing factor to an existing health concern.  Do you have a history of heart related disease or other related issues?  Sometimes you don't even know there is a problem until you have to see a Doctor for something closely related.  That's how I found out my EKG readings are all over the place.

I had major health problems but they weren't really heart-related.

[Max Rockatansky]

What's going could be a contributing factor to an existing health concern.  Do you have a history of heart related disease or other related issues?  Sometimes you don't even know there is a problem until you have to see a Doctor for something closely related.  That's how I found out my EKG readings are all over the place.

I had major health problems but they weren't really heart-related.

Sometimes you just don't know until some straw breaks the camels back and all of the sudden you find out.  I know in my case I had zero indicators of possible Afib.  I was in the E.R. dehydration the first time that jazz came up. 

[J N Winkler]

I don't know how much spare crops world has. Would we be OK with 10% loss? 25%? 50%?  Apparently, using wheat and corn to feed people instead of chicken and cattle may help, but again, that may be an interesting development to see.

It is arguable that most physically mature adults in the US eat too much meat, especially red meat--our per capita annual consumption of red meat is about half again that of the UK even though average heights for adult males and females is basically the same.  We probably also eat cereal grains (especially wheat) to a degree that is inconsistent with good long-term metabolic health.

On the other hand, kinks in the meat supply have the potential to price the poor out of protein depending on the price elasticity of processed meat.  I also worry about nutritional sufficiency if COVID-19 triggers a collapse of truck farming.

[GaryV]

I wasn't questioning the when.  I was questioning the why.  Did the doctors agree that it could have been induced by the additional stress?

They didn't say how or why it happened.

And if it was caused by stress, was it stress over the lockdown?  Or stress over COVID itself?

Hospitals around here are starting to encourage people to go to the ER when they need to.  Many didn't go because they thought if it wasn't COVID, they shouldn't go.  Doctors want them to go to the ER when they have problems like yours so they can be treated sooner rather than too late.

[bandit957]

And if it was caused by stress, was it stress over the lockdown?  Or stress over COVID itself?

It was over the lockdown. I actually wasn't that afraid of the virus until the lockdown created all the panic.

[Max Rockatansky]

I don't know how much spare crops world has. Would we be OK with 10% loss? 25%? 50%?  Apparently, using wheat and corn to feed people instead of chicken and cattle may help, but again, that may be an interesting development to see.

It is arguable that most physically mature adults in the US eat too much meat, especially red meat--our per capita annual consumption of red meat is about half again that of the UK even though average heights for adult males and females is basically the same.  We probably also eat cereal grains (especially wheat) to a degree that is inconsistent with good long-term metabolic health.

On the other hand, kinks in the meat supply have the potential to price the poor out of protein depending on the price elasticity of processed meat.  I also worry about nutritional sufficiency if COVID-19 triggers a collapse of truck farming.

Most adults consume way too many calories period regardless of what they consistent of nutritionally.  Most people probably lean towards the sedentary side of things which probably equates to a daily caloric intake need of 1,800-2,400 calories a day.  That number is actually pretty easy to get to eating relatively small portions.  That's why I kind of see what's going on now as the perfect time to push a public health message about exercise and being active. 

[vdeane]

The "trampling of rights"  is just people whining because they cant go to Applebee's.

No, it isn't.  It's partially because these folks who were working now can't feed their families and have a choice between opening up and maybe catching the virus, or keeping closed and definitely starving.  Have some empathy and consideration for the 25% suddenly thrown out of their lower-paying jobs and working paycheck-to-paycheck.  Not everyone is in an "essential" business or capable of working from home.

If the government did its job people wouldn't have to choose between safety and income.

Define how the government is to "do its job" here?  Even government income (at all levels) is way down due to the lack of incoming taxes.  As an example, there's some serious discussion about putting off road projects here in Illinois (a state which seriously needs to rebuild and upgrade its system) due to the lack of gas tax money coming in.

Canada has been giving everyone $2000/month.  European countries have been giving people a high percentage of their salaries.  Meanwhile, the US can't be bothered to do more than throw a one-time $1200 check at people.

In either event, the curve was flattened. The thing about flattening the curve, though, is that it doesn't save lives. Flattening the curve merely lengthens it. IOW the area under the curve stays about the same. So we'll eventually see the same number of deaths from COVID than if we had done nothing, but across a longer time span.

False, false, false.  If the hospitals are overwhelmed, that means they can't treat everyone.  If someone gets the disease (or has something else that sends them to a hospital) and can't get treated because the hospital has no more capacity or equipment to treat them, then they die.  So yes, it did save lives.  This isn't just a hypothetical - it actually happened in Italy, where some people were left to die just because they were old or had certain conditions.  NYC was ready to tell EMTs that if a person who called 911 couldn't be stabilized right where they were to leave them to die.

[TheHighwayMan3561]

The Supreme Court declines to consider a petition against Pennsylvania's stay at home order, which could portend the ultimate fate of any of these lawsuits.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/496448-supreme-court-declines-to-lift-pennsylvania-health-order

[kphoger]

In either event, the curve was flattened. The thing about flattening the curve, though, is that it doesn't save lives. Flattening the curve merely lengthens it. IOW the area under the curve stays about the same. So we'll eventually see the same number of deaths from COVID than if we had done nothing, but across a longer time span.

False, false, false.  If the hospitals are overwhelmed, that means they can't treat everyone.  If someone gets the disease (or has something else that sends them to a hospital) and can't get treated because the hospital has no more capacity or equipment to treat them, then they die.  So yes, it did save lives.  This isn't just a hypothetical - it actually happened in Italy, where some people were left to die just because they were old or had certain conditions.  NYC was ready to tell EMTs that if a person who called 911 couldn't be stabilized right where they were to leave them to die.

Correct.

Geometrically speaking, the area under the curve could be the same either way, but in the real world there are other factors to affect the area under the curve that change with the shape of the curve.

The pertinent question, however, is how many people's lives are being saved by the hospitals' not being overrun.  That is perhaps a question we'll never know the answer to.

[LM117]

NC's Outer Banks will be lifting visitor restrictions on May 16.

https://www.wavy.com/news/north-carolina/obx/outer-banks-lifting-visitor-restrictions-on-may-16/

[Brandon]

The Supreme Court declines to consider a petition against Pennsylvania's stay at home order, which could portend the ultimate fate of any of these lawsuits.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/496448-supreme-court-declines-to-lift-pennsylvania-health-order

Those type, maybe.  However, the ones in Michigan and Wisconsin are not about the orders themselves, but about whether the executive branch has exceeded its authority, brought by the legislative branch.