Coronavirus pandemic

[Bruce]

Washington has already started its phased reopening with ginger steps. Car washes and curbside retail are part of the first phase for most counties. Rural counties with stagnant or falling case growth are being prepped for the next phase.

...But we have a new hotspot in Yakima County because of unsafe working conditions at fruit picking/processing facilities and meat processors.

[ErmineNotyours]

A couple of weeks ago when car washes were still supposedly closed, Elephant Car Wash had all but their Seattle and Burien locations opened.  Brown Bear finally opened this week and I've never seen the interior so clean.

[Max Rockatansky]

Glimmer of a chance now that I won't be detailing my cars again:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/12/coronavirus-california-offices-can-reopen-with-modifications-malls-can-offer-curbside-pickup.html

Assuming Fresno gets on board with car washes being open.  Lots of more mainstream things like offices and dine-in restaurants can begin moving forward if local authorities agree.  I'm sure glad I flatly said "no"  to Los Angeles County when I was asked about a transfer back in February.  I didn't want to go back on the basis of already working their twice, now lock down is apparently going at least through July.

Sorry to veer off the highway for a sec. but how is working/living in La? Is it the same living in all states in the west coast. Ie: like Texas or Nevada.


iPhone

Personally I found it miserable.  The traffic is absolutely terrible and you almost always have to commute from some massive distance.  At least in Chicago (where my opinion the traffic is the worst in the country) you aren't spread out over some massive basin like Metro Los Angeles.  The first two times I worked in Los Angeles I managed to have it incorporated into my work area out of Phoenix.  The cost of living and daily traffic was a massive turn off that really made me fight hard against forced transfers out there.  I usually spent one or two weeks around Los Angeles every month traveling from site to site.  It wasn't so bad on my own terms since I was paid lodging, meal, and gas but it is by far my least favorite place I've ever worked. 

The funny thing is that I actually really enjoy visiting.  The traffic isn't too bad when you're trying to feature it on a highway page like I do.  The hiking is surprisingly good around the city and the air has cleaned up substantially even these past two decades.  I like having Los Angeles 3-4 hours away right now for an occasional visit, but I don't think I'll go back unless someone throws stupidly absurd levels of money at me. 

[Tonytone]

Glimmer of a chance now that I won't be detailing my cars again:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/12/coronavirus-california-offices-can-reopen-with-modifications-malls-can-offer-curbside-pickup.html

Assuming Fresno gets on board with car washes being open.  Lots of more mainstream things like offices and dine-in restaurants can begin moving forward if local authorities agree.  I'm sure glad I flatly said "no"  to Los Angeles County when I was asked about a transfer back in February.  I didn't want to go back on the basis of already working their twice, now lock down is apparently going at least through July.

Sorry to veer off the highway for a sec. but how is working/living in La? Is it the same living in all states in the west coast. Ie: like Texas or Nevada.


iPhone

Personally I found it miserable.  The traffic is absolutely terrible and you almost always have to commute from some massive distance.  At least in Chicago (where my opinion the traffic is the worst in the country) you aren't spread out over some massive basin like Metro Los Angeles.  The first two times I worked in Los Angeles I managed to have it incorporated into my work area out of Phoenix.  The cost of living and daily traffic was a massive turn off that really made me fight hard against forced transfers out there.  I usually spent one or two weeks around Los Angeles every month traveling from site to site.  It wasn't so bad on my own terms since I was paid lodging, meal, and gas but it is by far my least favorite place I've ever worked. 

The funny thing is that I actually really enjoy visiting.  The traffic isn't too bad when you're trying to feature it on a highway page like I do.  The hiking is surprisingly good around the city and the air has cleaned up substantially even these past two decades.  I like having Los Angeles 3-4 hours away right now for an occasional visit, but I don't think I'll go back unless someone throws stupidly absurd levels of money at me.

Sheesh so basically the traffic & cost of living make it kinda bad if you need to live there & commute for work. But its good if you're rich or visiting. Roger that.


iPhone

[tradephoric]

Of the 3 main data points that New York State officials have shared (deaths, mortality rate, antibody results) two are relatively easy to verify (deaths & mortality rate).  That really puts the antibody testing into question.  If officials say that 20% of the population have antibodies when the other data points suggest that number has to be closer to 60%.  Am i missing something here?  This is my math.

(Deaths / Mortality) / Population = % antibodies

Where:
Deaths = 25,000 (https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6919e5.htm)
Mortality = 0.5% (https://www.livescience.com/covid-antibody-test-results-new-york-test.html)
Population = 8,400,000

(25,000 / 0.005) / 8,400,000 = 59.5% antibodies

So, a couple things you're missing here.

One is that the official count of confirmed covid deaths in New York City is, as of today, only 14,800. This is based purely on how many people have died after having tested positive. The 25,000 figure in your first cite is an inferred estimate of the "true" death count in NYC which is based on looking at the total number of people that have died in the past couple months and comparing that number to the same period in prior years. The mortality estimates put forth by Cuomo are based on the number of confirmed deaths, not on any estimates of the true number.

Another is that the 0.5% mortality rate figure was based on statewide antibody test results. Within NYC specifically the number was actually stated to be higher - about 0.9%. It has been posited that the true mortality rate may, in fact, be higher in dense cities, because living in closer quarters with more people increases your exposure and makes more severe cases more likely.

Anyway with these caveats in mind the numbers add up: (14,800 / 0.009) / 8,400,000 = 19.6% antibodies, which is about what the first round of testing said. Subsequent testing put the number closer to 25%, which lowers the resulting mortality rate.

Nonetheless, I would expect that these antibody testing results are overestimates of true disease prevalence due to sampling bias. They obtained samples by pulling people aside at random at grocery stores. This means they're testing the prevalence among people who are going out and shopping, which for obvious reasons is likely to be higher than among people who are staying home and having their groceries delivered or sending another member of their household out for them.

Thank you Duke that was helpful information.  Assuming a 0.9% mortality rate in dense urban environments make all the difference in the antibody estimates.  Even assuming the estimated 25,000 deaths, with a 0.9% mortality roughly 33% of the population would have antibodies (which is now in the same ballpark as the 25% antibody findings). 

Anyway with these caveats in mind the numbers add up: (14,800 / 0.009) / 8,400,000 = 19.6% antibodies, which is about what the first round of testing said. Subsequent testing put the number closer to 25%, which lowers the resulting mortality rate.

This is the one part i'm not following.  Wasn't the Phase 1 and Phase 2 antibody studies performed several days apart?  If that's true couldn't the increase in people testing positive for antibodies in the Phase 2 study simply mean that more people had gotten infected (and more people had died) from the time the Phase 1 trial was performed?  In that case the mortality rate wouldn't have gone down.  Or maybe i'm wrong in assuming there was a lag between the two studies.

[Max Rockatansky]

Glimmer of a chance now that I won't be detailing my cars again:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/12/coronavirus-california-offices-can-reopen-with-modifications-malls-can-offer-curbside-pickup.html

Assuming Fresno gets on board with car washes being open.  Lots of more mainstream things like offices and dine-in restaurants can begin moving forward if local authorities agree.  I'm sure glad I flatly said "no"  to Los Angeles County when I was asked about a transfer back in February.  I didn't want to go back on the basis of already working their twice, now lock down is apparently going at least through July.

Sorry to veer off the highway for a sec. but how is working/living in La? Is it the same living in all states in the west coast. Ie: like Texas or Nevada.


iPhone

Personally I found it miserable.  The traffic is absolutely terrible and you almost always have to commute from some massive distance.  At least in Chicago (where my opinion the traffic is the worst in the country) you aren't spread out over some massive basin like Metro Los Angeles.  The first two times I worked in Los Angeles I managed to have it incorporated into my work area out of Phoenix.  The cost of living and daily traffic was a massive turn off that really made me fight hard against forced transfers out there.  I usually spent one or two weeks around Los Angeles every month traveling from site to site.  It wasn't so bad on my own terms since I was paid lodging, meal, and gas but it is by far my least favorite place I've ever worked. 

The funny thing is that I actually really enjoy visiting.  The traffic isn't too bad when you're trying to feature it on a highway page like I do.  The hiking is surprisingly good around the city and the air has cleaned up substantially even these past two decades.  I like having Los Angeles 3-4 hours away right now for an occasional visit, but I don't think I'll go back unless someone throws stupidly absurd levels of money at me.

Sheesh so basically the traffic & cost of living make it kinda bad if you need to live there & commute for work. But its good if you're rich or visiting. Roger that.


iPhone

I wouldn't say you need to be rich but even 80k on an individual income isn't going to get much more than a nice apartment anywhere near the core of the urban center.  For me it was better to commute from another city or not get paid as much to live somewhere more affordable.  Even with the pay pump I would get living there the cost of living would offset it and then some by a large margin.  As I've gotten older, I've found for me that less tends to be more.  Nowadays I don't work or live in a big metro area but I live far more comfortably and I'm far more happy.

Now with the virus stuff in places like Los Angeles and NYC I can see that being a big turn off to a lot of job seekers just on that basis.   

[Bruce]

Traffic around Seattle is also bad and housing is unaffordable, but we developed a bit more compactly and the edge of the suburbs is only about 35 miles from downtown. I live at the northern extreme and it usually takes about an hour and change to reach downtown during peak hours, with about 30 extra minutes if taking the bus (a viable option even in the suburbs). Also plenty of access to unspoiled wilderness, which is nice.

[Scott5114]

Things are finally looking up for me during this time. I can finally test for my driver's license (so long as I wear a mask). I will wait for a time where it isn't going to rain all week.

That rain will hopefully bring up the water on the upper Buffalo Nat'l River, as I am planning a day trip to float on the river (it opens in three days for day-use). This comes as my online school is coming to a close. The district cancelled all finals.

Arkansas is not allowing visitors from COVID-19 hotspots, including New Orleans, New York, and New Jersey.

Your school closes soon? Lucky, we go till mid June.

I don't know about Missouri, but in Oklahoma, school finishes up in mid-May. We were always out before Memorial Day. However, we go back in mid-August.

[tradephoric]

According to John Hopkins Italy has had 221,216 confirmed cases and 30,911 deaths (which equals a case mortality rate of 13.97%).  A high mortality rate usually suggests a lack of testing, but supposedly Italy has tested more people per capita than any other country.  But look at how different countries constitute a "test".  So much country data is out there but there are a lot of Apples and Oranges comparisons taking place.

[bandit957]

The Roman Catholic Archdiocese of Cincinnati will start having mass again on May 25.

[GaryV]

The Roman Catholic Archdiocese of Cincinnati will start having mass again on May 25.

The Archdiocese of Detroit will open partially in a week and fully on May 29, the day after the latest extension of the "Stay Home" order expires.

[vdeane]

So we have a family vacation planned for the second week of June.  Flying to Boston, with 3 nights in Boston, one in Albany, and two in NYC.  Anybody from MA or NY with a sense of whether or not tourism will be welcomed by then?

We can reschedule this to as late as the first week in August but if we can't do the trip by then it isn't happening.

Yeah, I'd reschedule.  I can tell you right now that June is basically off the table for the NY portions, especially downstate.  Last I heard, hotels reopen in phase 3 (though they're not mentioned on the industry breakdown).  Only three regions have been cleared so far to begin Phase 1, and those regions may be able to shift to phase 2 at the end of the month if things don't worsen.  Phase 3 would begin at least two weeks after that.

The Capital Region is still waiting for its death count to decline more (personally, I'm not really sure why that's a metric, since it lags new infections by 6-8 weeks, but that's what they're using), and NYC and the Mid-Hudson regions are still hot spots, so even phase 1 by the end of the month may be optimistic.  I don't know how MA is doing, but last I heard, Boston was a hot spot.

Everything you could want to know about NY's reopening plan and how the regions are doing is here: https://forward.ny.gov/

In the NY Forward link, are the regions in yellow the ones that will be Phase I beginning this weekend?

Not all of them.  Those are the ones classified as "lower risk" based on their current hospitalization trends and utilization.  The Finger Lakes, Southern Tier, and Mohawk Valley were the ones that were originally announced as having met all seven criteria to reopen; since then, the North Country has ramped up its testing capability and will be reopening as well.  Central NY is still doing that.

The dashboard is updated daily with each region's status, as is the hospitalization trend chart.  I'm not sure what's driving the current spike of cases in the Capital District (especially since we're fully cleared for elective surgeries and the media keeps talking about how our case count is at a record low), but it's making me start to believe the people who say the Capital District is really downstate instead of upstate.

[kphoger]

To me, it makes sense that the places with the worst outbreaks took the most restrictive measures to slow it down.  I wouldn't see that as meaning the measures were ineffective, but as meaning that they were warranted.  In places with lesser outbreaks and less restrictive measures, that may not be success as much as their societies having less viral characteristics, such as less travel and lower density (and maybe even a higher degree of a sense of societal responsibility, where they don't rush in and crowd places just because those places are open and then bitch and moan about personal freedoms when asked to be respectful of the safety of others).

So...

[A]  If a country has loose restrictions and many cases, then it proves restrictions are necessary:  with tighter restrictions, the number of cases would surely be lower.

[.B]  If a country has tight restrictions and few cases, then it proves restrictions are necessary:  with looser restrictions, the number of cases would surely be higher.

On the other hand...

[C]  If a country has tight restrictions and many cases, then it doesn't prove restrictions are unnecessary:  restrictions must have been warranted because it must have had a huge initial outbreak to be slowed down.

[D]  If a country has loose restrictions and few cases, then it doesn't prove restrictions are unnecessary:  people there must have less viral characteristics.


To me, this seems like a position that leaves no possibility of being refuted.

[Max Rockatansky]

Traffic around Seattle is also bad and housing is unaffordable, but we developed a bit more compactly and the edge of the suburbs is only about 35 miles from downtown. I live at the northern extreme and it usually takes about an hour and change to reach downtown during peak hours, with about 30 extra minutes if taking the bus (a viable option even in the suburbs). Also plenty of access to unspoiled wilderness, which is nice.

I could handle Kitsap or Whibey Island if they ever became available.  The nice thing Seattle has is a pretty robust mass transit network which isn't a pain to use...or at least that's how I felt. 

[hbelkins]

If someone fails a temperature check and all you do is turn them around, they remain free to potentially keep infecting others elsewhere, and you thus have merely redirected the problem rather than actually addressing it. Hence, security theater - looks tough (and yes, can in some cases massively inconvenience people subject to it), but doesn't really protect people.

A whole lot of things can cause one to run a fever. The chances of having this particular virus, as opposed to anything else that causes your body temperature to rise, are slim.  And the infrared skin temperature scanners don't seem to be particularly great. If you've been out in the sun or have worked up a sweat via exercise or physical labor, your skin can be warmer than usual. And if you're one of those much-demonized asymptomatic carriers that's killing people and you don't even know it [/sarcasm] then a temperature scan is worthless anyway.

[kphoger]

They're security theater if they're done as a standalone measure, and all that happens if you have a fever is you get denied entry to wherever you were trying to get into. But that isn't (or shouldn't be) the intent.

Speak for yourself.  My best friends recently had their temperatures taken twice "with Harbor Freight type IR thermometers" (his words) at roadside checkpoints while on a 275-mile drive home.  "Security theater" isn't so entertaining when it's being done on the side of a highway by the military, and being "denied entry to wherever you were trying to get" is a lot more of an interruption when that "wherever" is your home town.

So... the term "security theater" doesn't imply it is entertaining to anyone. It describes procedures which look tough and intimidating, but don't do much to improve actual safety.

If someone fails a temperature check and all you do is turn them around, they remain free to potentially keep infecting others elsewhere, and you thus have merely redirected the problem rather than actually addressing it. Hence, security theater - looks tough (and yes, can in some cases massively inconvenience people subject to it), but doesn't really protect people.

A whole lot of things can cause one to run a fever. The chances of having this particular virus, as opposed to anything else that causes your body temperature to rise, are slim.  And the infrared skin temperature scanners don't seem to be particularly great. If you've been out in the sun or have worked up a sweat via exercise or physical labor, your skin can be warmer than usual. And if you're one of those much-demonized asymptomatic carriers that's killing people and you don't even know it [/sarcasm] then a temperature scan is worthless anyway.

Indeed, I wonder what would have happened to my friends if they had failed the temperature check.  They and their two young daughters are living in Mexico on tourist cards and were stopped while heading south away from the border, after having just obtained new six-month papers.  What would being "turned around" have looked like?  Perhaps sent back to the border, who knows?  At least they had packed up most of their belongings ahead of time (uncertain if they could even obtain new papers), but what if they hadn't done so and had been left stranded at the border with naught but one change of clothes?

[ftballfan]

The Roman Catholic Archdiocese of Cincinnati will start having mass again on May 25.

The Archdiocese of Detroit will open partially in a week and fully on May 29, the day after the latest extension of the "Stay Home" order expires.

Whitmer mentioned that the protests at the Capitol might extend her stay home order even if the case load keeps declining (under 400 reported today statewide; my home county hasn't reported a new case in almost a month).

Side note: Clergy and funeral directors will likely be a little busier than normal this summer due to the backlog of funerals and memorial services for people who have passed since early March.

[jakeroot]

Traffic around Seattle is also bad and housing is unaffordable, but we developed a bit more compactly and the edge of the suburbs is only about 35 miles from downtown. I live at the northern extreme and it usually takes about an hour and change to reach downtown during peak hours, with about 30 extra minutes if taking the bus (a viable option even in the suburbs). Also plenty of access to unspoiled wilderness, which is nice.

I could handle Kitsap or Whibey Island if they ever became available.  The nice thing Seattle has is a pretty robust mass transit network which isn't a pain to use...or at least that's how I felt.

I would definitely agree. As long as you don't mind the bus, it's a fairly painless experience. Individual cities and the transit providers do an excellent job provisioning street space for transit, often making it quicker to use the bus with all the exclusive lanes and queue jumps. The LRT line should really help improve the experience overall, and provide some much-needed grade separation in the busy areas.

[Max Rockatansky]

Looks like Tesla ended up getting Alameda County to see things their way after all:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/spat-over-reopening-california-tesla-061416556.html

[SSOWorld]

I hope you're proud of yourself Wisconsin REDS

https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/wisconsin-supreme-court-strikes-down-stay-at-home-order/article_fd2be344-666f-5437-8955-f5cd9ae17a50.html#tracking-source=home-breaking

[Bruce]

Traffic around Seattle is also bad and housing is unaffordable, but we developed a bit more compactly and the edge of the suburbs is only about 35 miles from downtown. I live at the northern extreme and it usually takes about an hour and change to reach downtown during peak hours, with about 30 extra minutes if taking the bus (a viable option even in the suburbs). Also plenty of access to unspoiled wilderness, which is nice.

I could handle Kitsap or Whibey Island if they ever became available.  The nice thing Seattle has is a pretty robust mass transit network which isn't a pain to use...or at least that's how I felt. 

The ferries are fine if you are a walk-on passenger and/or able to live with organizing your entire lifestyle around the boat schedules. Driving on is a pain, especially for the Bremerton and Clinton runs.

[Max Rockatansky]

Traffic around Seattle is also bad and housing is unaffordable, but we developed a bit more compactly and the edge of the suburbs is only about 35 miles from downtown. I live at the northern extreme and it usually takes about an hour and change to reach downtown during peak hours, with about 30 extra minutes if taking the bus (a viable option even in the suburbs). Also plenty of access to unspoiled wilderness, which is nice.

I could handle Kitsap or Whibey Island if they ever became available.  The nice thing Seattle has is a pretty robust mass transit network which isn't a pain to use...or at least that's how I felt. 

The ferries are fine if you are a walk-on passenger and/or able to live with organizing your entire lifestyle around the boat schedules. Driving on is a pain, especially for the Bremerton and Clinton runs.

That's what my boss does right.  He's not particularly fond of the ferry in Kingston but seems to able keep up more with the Port Townsend ferry schedule.  I usually hit the first Bremerton-Seattle Ferry of the day when I'm working up there on the return trip to SeaTac.  I've found in rush hour the time difference between WA 16 and I-5 is fairly even. 

[bandit957]

Minnesota is letting their stay-at-home order expire. I think Rhode Island already did.

[Brandon]

I hope you're proud of yourself Wisconsin REDS

https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/wisconsin-supreme-court-strikes-down-stay-at-home-order/article_fd2be344-666f-5437-8955-f5cd9ae17a50.html#tracking-source=home-breaking

The order has a stay of one week before it ends, and the governor and the legislature must be involved in replacing it.  No more dictatorial rule, especially by DHS.

[SSOWorld]

I hope you're proud of yourself Wisconsin REDS

https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/wisconsin-supreme-court-strikes-down-stay-at-home-order/article_fd2be344-666f-5437-8955-f5cd9ae17a50.html#tracking-source=home-breaking

The order has a stay of one week before it ends, and the governor and the legislature must be involved in replacing it.  No more dictatorial rule, especially by DHS.

Incorrect Brandon, the stay was never granted - Bars here in town opened up swiftly.