Coronavirus pandemic

[hbelkins]

lather
/ˈlaT͟Hər/
verb: cover something with liberal amounts of (a substance).

I always used the term "slather" in that context. "I slathered A1 sauce all over my steak before I ate it."

[NJRoadfan]

Regarding testing, are there actually any states that require testing for things like travel or returning to work?  There is such a push for testing but there seems to be very little weight to actually being tested aside peace of mind.  For me I see zero incentive given that I feel fine, but there is a public push for people like me to get tested anyways.  Given what is coming out about asymptomatic spread not really being as big of an issue as originally thought it seems like taking a test for the sake of taking one is pointless. 

Many employers are requiring it, likely to have a baseline. Asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic spread is a serious issue with this virus (the WHO backpedaled that statement). There have been cases that have been detected in random testing that wouldn't have been caught otherwise. The reason for getting testing capacity up and to have otherwise healthy people get tested is to increase the sample set ("where is/isn't the virus right now") and catch cases that would otherwise go undetected. Ready access to testing also allows contact tracers to get results from a known case's contacts quickly and contain any spread.

Hindsight is 20/20, but if rapid testing like this was readily available back in February (when it was impossible to get ANY test), outcomes would have been very different, particularly here in NJ which clearly had undetected community spread for several weeks.

[oscar]

Regarding testing, are there actually any states that require testing for things like travel or returning to work?

Alaska is giving arriving tourists the option of getting tested before they arrive in Alaska (plus again after their arrival), in lieu of a full-on two-week quarantine. That is still a bit of a buzz-kill for county counters yearning to finish off Alaska this year (also recent positive cases among the crew of the ferry vessel serving the Aleutian counties/equivalents, which means the ferry system will have to scrounge up a replacement crew while the original crew is stuck in quarantine).

There is such a push for testing but there seems to be very little weight to actually being tested aside peace of mind.  For me I see zero incentive given that I feel fine, but there is a public push for people like me to get tested anyways.  Given what is coming out about asymptomatic spread not really being as big of an issue as originally thought it seems like taking a test for the sake of taking one is pointless. 

That's where I am, too, at least until my health plan starts nagging me to come in for a test, like it does for vaccinations. It's softening its initial stance against testing asymptomatic patients, but is still requiring a referral from a plan doctor or other provider to qualify for a free in-house test.

The idea of a do-it-yourself nasal swab freaks me out. I'm sure I'd not get the swab in far enough, or in the right place. So I'll let someone else do the honors, thank you.

[hbelkins]

The idea of a do-it-yourself nasal swab freaks me out. I'm sure I'd not get the swab in far enough, or in the right place. So I'll let someone else do the honors, thank you.

Kentucky's governor said today that the self-administered tests are less uncomfortable than the professionally-administered ones are. I'm not sure why there's a difference.

I thought a saliva test was under development.

[J N Winkler]

Sitting down directly on the bowl is part of my current strategy for securing a flat anorectal angle.  I have only ever done this at home, however, and have thus had the ability to shower immediately afterward.

Please tell me you don't shower after every BM.

Sorry to be disobliging--usually I do.  I work with solids just once a day, generally after I wake up and have coffee and oatmeal, so a shower afterward slots neatly into my morning routine.

[NJRoadfan]

That's where I am, too, at least until my health plan starts nagging me to come in for a test, like it does for vaccinations. It's softening its initial stance against testing asymptomatic patients, but is still requiring a referral from a plan doctor or other provider to qualify for a free in-house test.

Your health plan should be offering testing no questions asked. I had zero problems getting the test with no referral and the co-pay was waived.

Kentucky's governor said today that the self-administered tests are less uncomfortable than the professionally-administered ones are. I'm not sure why there's a difference.

I thought a saliva test was under development.

The Rutgers University developed saliva test is in use at some testing sites here in NJ. The concern with people self-administering the nasal swab is that they may not go far enough back into the nose to get a proper sample.

[Bruce]

I took a free drive-thru COVID test yesterday.

The swabs did cause a bit of burning and I had to pull over for a few minutes before I could drive off, but overall it was a simple 10-minute process.

I got my result the next morning: a negative for COVID.

(Seattle is reusing the abandoned state emissions testing centers for COVID testing, which is brilliant)

[kphoger]

The idea of a do-it-yourself nasal swab freaks me out. I'm sure I'd not get the swab in far enough, or in the right place. So I'll let someone else do the honors, thank you.

If it's anything like the flu swab, then I seriously doubt my ability to stick that thing far enough into my brain.

[Max Rockatansky]

Went to the gym when they opened this morning.  Checking in was no big deal since it was the typical six foot space thing and a small Q&A at the front counter.  All the equipment was shifted so there was a six foot gap between each bench and machine.  Masks weren't required while working out but I guess you are supposed to have it on if you're walking to the next bench or loafing around?  Wiping down equipment is required and there is a person running around telling people they can't be within six feet or spot.  On the plus side I think that will deter a lot of people who tend to hog up benches in groups or sit around talking rather than working out. 

There wasn't too much of an upswing for me aside from the first couple sets of flat bench.  Using the bench felt weird until my muscle memory kicked in.  I want to say that I was either flat to the weights I was lifting before lockdown or maybe down only five pounds.  My hands got tore up a little bit since I was using gloves at home but that will take about a week for them to callus properly. 

[Roadgeekteen]

I'm glad I live in Massachusetts where covid cases are still going down for the most part. Would hate to be in Florida or Arizona right now.

[Max Rockatansky]

I'm glad I live in Massachusetts where covid cases are still going down for the most part. Would hate to be in Florida or Arizona right now.

Hence my sense of urgency cramming so much personal travel, hiking, and other stuff as much as I can now.  It's just a matter of time before some state starts locking things down again.  Then again I still wouldn't hesitate to travel to Arizona or Florida right now. 

[NWI_Irish96]

I'm glad I live in Massachusetts where covid cases are still going down for the most part. Would hate to be in Florida or Arizona right now.

Any sense of whether or not tourist sites in MA will be open by the first of August?

[Roadgeekteen]

I'm glad I live in Massachusetts where covid cases are still going down for the most part. Would hate to be in Florida or Arizona right now.

Any sense of whether or not tourist sites in MA will be open by the first of August?

Well the earliest date that museums can open in June 29th.

[Eth]

The IHME model has been extended to October 1 in the US.  Nationwide, it's showing a swing upward starting in late August.  It isn't a typical second wave, but more like a rebound of a first wave that never really ended, but that's just a composite of multiple regional epidemics.  The variation by state is very high.  In New York, they show the disease pretty much gone by August (100 to 200 daily infections and a few daily deaths).  New Jersey and Connecticut are similar.  The resurgence seems to be mostly places that weren't hit hard the first time.  A lot of southern states, from Georgia to Texas, are shown with higher infection and death rates than they had before.  Louisiana got high pretty hard, so it would be harder to get higher numbers, but Louisiana's curve not only doesn't get higher than before, it looks more like New York, with the virus tapering off, although more slowly.  A quick overview makes it look like the states that were worst off before are expected to get a lot better, and those states that were spared are more likely to see rapid increases.  One that stands out to me is Minnesota, which has a pretty strong wave pattern, having been over a pretty big hump already and seeing another one ahead of them.

My first thought as to why the projections look this way is that places that were hit hard before would be more likely to be more careful, but that isn't what they're assuming.  New York and New Jersey are shown with increasing mobility the whole time, and Louisiana is shown with mobility going back nearly to normal.  Of course, if the counts are as low as projected in those places, then there's really no reason not to.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

They appear to be assuming some kind of significant societal change or event in Georgia occurring on precisely August 14th, as the estimated infection projection abruptly starts sloping upward at that point. My best guess would be some sort of attempt at a "back-to-school" factor, though that would be a lazy implementation as not everyone starts school at the same time (plus that would be rather late based on typical schedules, which would likely have a start date within about a week in either direction of August 5th).

There is then also apparently some kind of major medical breakthrough scheduled for September 26th, which brings with it a sudden very sharp decrease in required hospital resources.

Yeah, forgive me if I don't put too much stock in this one.

[kphoger]

They appear to be assuming some kind of significant societal change or event in Georgia occurring on precisely August 14th, as the estimated infection projection abruptly starts sloping upward at that point. My best guess would be some sort of attempt at a "back-to-school" factor, though that would be a lazy implementation as not everyone starts school at the same time (plus that would be rather late based on typical schedules, which would likely have a start date within about a week in either direction of August 5th).

That's the precise point at which the social distancing/mobility line makes a sudden jump up to the same level as back on March 12.

[tradephoric]

I'm glad I live in Massachusetts where covid cases are still going down for the most part. Would hate to be in Florida or Arizona right now.

I compared the COVID deaths in Massachusetts to Arizona in this thread on May 6th.  At the time Massachusetts was reporting over 1000 COVID deaths per week compared to 100 weekly deaths in Arizona.  Fast forward to today and Massachusetts is still reporting more weekly COVID deaths (291 deaths) than Arizona (130 deaths) even as Arizona is seeing a spike in new cases.   

Arizona has a slightly higher population than Massachusetts yet Massachusetts has seen 10x the number of COVID deaths.  Will Arizona be spared from this pandemic or is their spike in cases still coming?   


https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?scale=linear&data=deaths&region=US&location=Arizona&location=Massachusetts&doublingtime=3

I would include California in the list of states that haven't yet seen a big spike in cases.  California is twice the population of New York yet at their worst they were seeing 540 deaths per week compared to New York which at its worse was seeing 5318 deaths (and since then weekly deaths have dropped by 62%).  Today weekly deaths in California are 502 which is only an 8% reduction from its peak.  If California starts to see exponential growth in cases upon loosening restrictions they could quickly overtake New York in Covid deaths.


https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?scale=linear&data=deaths&region=US&location=California&location=New+York&doublingtime=3

[webny99]

The idea of a do-it-yourself nasal swab freaks me out. I'm sure I'd not get the swab in far enough, or in the right place. So I'll let someone else do the honors, thank you.

If it's anything like the flu swab, then I seriously doubt my ability to stick that thing far enough into my brain.

Our self-testing site gives instructions to put it in an inch. I don't necessarily trust myself to do it just right, but I'm certainly a lot more comfortable doing so.

[kphoger]

The idea of a do-it-yourself nasal swab freaks me out. I'm sure I'd not get the swab in far enough, or in the right place. So I'll let someone else do the honors, thank you.

If it's anything like the flu swab, then I seriously doubt my ability to stick that thing far enough into my brain.

Our self-testing site gives instructions to put it in an inch. I don't necessarily trust myself to do it just right, but I'm certainly a lot more comfortable doing so.

That would be nice.  When I got swabbed for the flu several years ago, I felt the swab poke the inside of my skull.

[tolbs17]

Not sure what's up with North Carolina. There has been more cases lately compared to the last few months.

[wxfree]

The IHME model has been extended to October 1 in the US.  Nationwide, it's showing a swing upward starting in late August.  It isn't a typical second wave, but more like a rebound of a first wave that never really ended, but that's just a composite of multiple regional epidemics.  The variation by state is very high.  In New York, they show the disease pretty much gone by August (100 to 200 daily infections and a few daily deaths).  New Jersey and Connecticut are similar.  The resurgence seems to be mostly places that weren't hit hard the first time.  A lot of southern states, from Georgia to Texas, are shown with higher infection and death rates than they had before.  Louisiana got high pretty hard, so it would be harder to get higher numbers, but Louisiana's curve not only doesn't get higher than before, it looks more like New York, with the virus tapering off, although more slowly.  A quick overview makes it look like the states that were worst off before are expected to get a lot better, and those states that were spared are more likely to see rapid increases.  One that stands out to me is Minnesota, which has a pretty strong wave pattern, having been over a pretty big hump already and seeing another one ahead of them.

My first thought as to why the projections look this way is that places that were hit hard before would be more likely to be more careful, but that isn't what they're assuming.  New York and New Jersey are shown with increasing mobility the whole time, and Louisiana is shown with mobility going back nearly to normal.  Of course, if the counts are as low as projected in those places, then there's really no reason not to.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

They appear to be assuming some kind of significant societal change or event in Georgia occurring on precisely August 14th, as the estimated infection projection abruptly starts sloping upward at that point. My best guess would be some sort of attempt at a "back-to-school" factor, though that would be a lazy implementation as not everyone starts school at the same time (plus that would be rather late based on typical schedules, which would likely have a start date within about a week in either direction of August 5th).

There is then also apparently some kind of major medical breakthrough scheduled for September 26th, which brings with it a sudden very sharp decrease in required hospital resources.

Yeah, forgive me if I don't put too much stock in this one.

That drop-off in hospital resource utilization at the end is strange, especially with infections rising.  I wouldn't take that as a reason to dismiss the whole thing.  I've been surprised at how accurate it's been, even with the swings that have happened.  As with weather forecasts, or sports rankings, as you get closer to the predicted event, or the end of the season, it gets more accurate.  That's expected.  The drop-off at the end is probably from some mathematical anomaly that they will figure out how to smooth over in future runs.  They may have been figuring that we'll shorten hospital stays by finding better treatments, but the computer put that whole effect on a certain day instead of blending it in gradually.

[US71]

Arkansas has just reported its largest single day increase in coronavirus infections. Meanwhile, Governor Asa Hutchinson has approved going to Phase 2 citing the reduction of infections ,  which means restaurants can now open to 2/3  capacity vs 1/3 before.

[bandit957]

Arkansas has just reported its largest single day increase in coronavirus infections. Meanwhile, Governor Asa Hutchinson has approved going to Phase 2 citing the reduction of infections ,  which means restaurants can now open to 2/3  capacity vs 1/3 before.

I thought most of the cases there were from a prison in eastern Arkansas.

[Roadgeekteen]

Arkansas has just reported its largest single day increase in coronavirus infections. Meanwhile, Governor Asa Hutchinson has approved going to Phase 2 citing the reduction of infections ,  which means restaurants can now open to 2/3  capacity vs 1/3 before.

Wait what. How can infections go down if they are going up?

[Ben114]

Arkansas has just reported its largest single day increase in coronavirus infections. Meanwhile, Governor Asa Hutchinson has approved going to Phase 2 citing the reduction of infections ,  which means restaurants can now open to 2/3  capacity vs 1/3 before.

Wait what. How can infections go down if they are going up?

They can't. It's just in a state which is rushing to reopen.

[US71]

Arkansas has just reported its largest single day increase in coronavirus infections. Meanwhile, Governor Asa Hutchinson has approved going to Phase 2 citing the reduction of infections ,  which means restaurants can now open to 2/3  capacity vs 1/3 before.

I thought most of the cases there were from a prison in eastern Arkansas.

Apparently not.