Coronavirus pandemic

[SEWIGuy]

Yep. 

https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1274112422064898055?s=20

[ftballfan]

I don't wear a mask unless absolutely necessary (i.e. if I enter a shop to buy something). Outside I prefer to keep distance with everyone and besides that I wear glasses and I don't want them to become foggy.

Same here. I'm planning on going to theme parks in a few weeks and they'll be requiring a mask, but it won't fog up my glasses as I don't wear glasses in theme parks (and haven't since I got glasses)

[Roadgeekteen]

Yep. 

https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1274112422064898055?s=20

The graph isn't wrong, but different states peaked at different times, like New York peaked earlier than Arizona.

[ftballfan]

Yep. 

https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1274112422064898055?s=20

The graph isn't wrong, but different states peaked at different times, like New York peaked earlier than Arizona.

Also, more asymptomatic cases are being found via no-reason testing. In early April, one had to be showing symptoms to even be considered for a test.

[Bruce]

As this thread approaches 5 months old, it has now more than doubled the length of any other Off-Topic thread.

Five months since the first U.S. case was identified in my county, and we've only just reopened for limited-capacity retail. Time really crawls.

[SEWIGuy]

Yep. 

https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1274112422064898055?s=20

The graph isn't wrong, but different states peaked at different times, like New York peaked earlier than Arizona.

Also, more asymptomatic cases are being found via no-reason testing. In early April, one had to be showing symptoms to even be considered for a test.

Europe does the same thing.

[1995hoo]

Fayetteville, Arkansas passed an ordinance requiring anyone outside in public should be wearing a mask. Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson has declared that cities can't have stricter rules than the state (which recommends masks, but does not require them.)

How does one person's declaration supersede a legislatively-approved ordinance?

It trumps the....oh, never mind.

[webny99]

As this thread approaches 5 months old, it has now more than doubled the length of any other Off-Topic thread.

Five months since the first U.S. case was identified in my county, and we've only just reopened for limited-capacity retail. Time really crawls.

Seems to me like Washington has been a lot stricter than other states, but I guess people are probably more accepting of the restrictions since you got hit so early, plus being on the West Coast with more ties to China.

[Roadgeekteen]

As this thread approaches 5 months old, it has now more than doubled the length of any other Off-Topic thread.

Five months since the first U.S. case was identified in my county, and we've only just reopened for limited-capacity retail. Time really crawls.

Seems to me like Washington has been a lot stricter than other states, but I guess people are probably more accepting of the restrictions since you got hit so early, plus being on the West Coast with more ties to China.

Are the cases still increasing in Washington?

[3467]

Yes Washington is getting a second wave since they had a first one. covidexitstrategy.org is a really good complication of data.

[Sctvhound]

South Carolina is getting our major wave now. We have over 11,000 active cases right now...

https://carolinasportsthoughts.wordpress.com/2020/06/20/active-coronavirus-cases-in-south-carolina-6-20/

[bandit957]

The increase in Washington lately is centered on some agricultural operations in Yakima County.

[Bruce]

Yes Washington is getting a second wave since they had a first one. covidexitstrategy.org is a really good complication of data.

Not a second wave. The numbers are in Central WA, which is only now experiencing its first wave. The Puget Sound region is mostly flat.

[hbelkins]

Fayetteville, Arkansas passed an ordinance requiring anyone outside in public should be wearing a mask. Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson has declared that cities can't have stricter rules than the state (which recommends masks, but does not require them.)

How does one person's declaration supersede a legislatively-approved ordinance?

It trumps the....oh, never mind.

See, I don't get the thinking that a local legislative body can pass a local ordinance (law) but a state executive can come in and unilaterally say, "wait a minute, that goes too far, I decree that you roll it back." Seems to me that the local folks would know better and can or should be able to enact policies and regulations that fit their communities. And yes, I'm aware that there are some state laws that specify that local ordinances cannot be more stringent than state laws, but executive orders aren't laws.

[vdeane]

Well, this is bad.  If true, I don't see how a vaccine could be effective enough to bring us back to normal if immunity wouldn't last more than 2-3 months.  It's not like we can give it to every person on the planet at the same time.  I wonder how long this was suspected?  It would certainly explain why the experts and politicians are increasingly talking like the pandemic response measures are permanent.
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-antibodies-only-last-months-weaker-in-asymptomatic-cases-2020-6

[Max Rockatansky]

Well, this is bad.  If true, I don't see how a vaccine could be effective enough to bring us back to normal if immunity wouldn't last more than 2-3 months.  It's not like we can give it to every person on the planet at the same time.  I wonder how long this was suspected?  It would certainly explain why the experts and politicians are increasingly talking like the pandemic response measures are permanent.
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-antibodies-only-last-months-weaker-in-asymptomatic-cases-2020-6

Don't antibodies for the majority of viral infections tend to disappear relatively quickly within a few months anyways? 

[kalvado]

Well, this is bad.  If true, I don't see how a vaccine could be effective enough to bring us back to normal if immunity wouldn't last more than 2-3 months.  It's not like we can give it to every person on the planet at the same time.  I wonder how long this was suspected?  It would certainly explain why the experts and politicians are increasingly talking like the pandemic response measures are permanent.
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-antibodies-only-last-months-weaker-in-asymptomatic-cases-2020-6

Don't antibodies for the majority of viral infections tend to disappear relatively quickly within a few months anyways?

Depends. Measles, smallpox, and chickenpox last for life, and antibodies can be detected decades later.
However, antibodies concentration isnot the only thing to consider. Even if antibody concentration is low, they can come up pretty fast on the second infection. In fact, antibody production in living organisms uses second infection to spur production - something that is difficult to do in humans for ethical reasons. It is possible that even IgM is below the detection limit, a second exposure to virus will cause disease - but much weaker than the first one. This is what was observed by SARS study in ferrets, actually.
However, this means that someone who got sick may still be infected and spread infection while travelling, hence no immune passports.

UPD to clarify - this is generic graph, not covid specific.

[SEWIGuy]

We are nowhere near herd immunity.

[hotdogPi]

Does anyone know why Mississippi is decreasing while the rest of the South is increasing?

[Max Rockatansky]

Another article popped up regarding "potential"  COVID-19 potentially been in California during late 2019:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/mysterious-deaths-infants-children-raise-140052428.html

[tradephoric]

There has been a spike in cases in many states (Arizona, Florida, Texas, California) but there hasn't been a spike in deaths.  I realize that deaths lag the new cases but Arizona has been seeing spikes in cases since mid-May.  Some people infected early on in the spike should have already died of the virus. Also, the percent positive tests in Arizona have been increasing indicating that the spike in new cases isn't just due to more testing being done (and the rise in positive tests indicate there really is an outbreak taking place).  So where are the increased deaths in the states that are seeing a spike in cases?  Is it possible the virus has mutated to a  less deadly strain or that the people who are getting infected have a lower viral load due to the precautions being taken (ie. social distancing, face masks, etc.).  I've heard there has been increases in hospitalizations in some states but maybe now more people are recovering.


https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?data=deaths&region=US&doublingtime=3&location=Arizona&location=California&location=Florida&location=Texas

[bandit957]

In those states in the South and Southwest that have had more cases lately, it's mostly younger people, who are the least likely to die from it.

[jeffandnicole]

Deaths have a multiple-week lag after people are tested positive.  Since this latest wave is still relatively young, these ill people are still being treated. There's also a bit more knowledge about the virus.  Hospitals can treat people differently than they did back in March and April.

Also, and more importantly (as to what Bandit said): a lot of people getting sick now are those in their 20's and 30's as they are going out to bars and other places where they tend to lose focus on social distancing, don't have the ability to wear masks during their gatherings, etc. However, this group tends to be healthier overall, and when they do become ill they can fight off the virus more successfully.

[Max Rockatansky]

There has been a spike in cases in many states (Arizona, Florida, Texas, California) but there hasn't been a spike in deaths.  I realize that deaths lag the new cases but Arizona has been seeing spikes in cases since mid-May.  Some people infected early on in the spike should have already died of the virus. Also, the percent positive tests in Arizona have been increasing indicating that the spike in new cases isn't just due to more testing being done (and the rise in positive tests indicate there really is an outbreak taking place).  So where are the increased deaths in the states that are seeing a spike in cases?  Is it possible the virus has mutated to a  less deadly strain or that the people who are getting infected have a lower viral load due to the precautions being taken (ie. social distancing, face masks, etc.).  I've heard there has been increases in hospitalizations in some states but maybe now more people are recovering.


https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?data=deaths&region=US&doublingtime=3&location=Arizona&location=California&location=Florida&location=Texas

Most current estimates put the mortality rate of COVID-19 are 0.3%.  It certainly is nowhere near as deadly as was feared early on in the pandemic.  As stated numerous times upthread that's about three times as deadly as the typical flu.  What you're seeing with large number of test samples coming back is that mortality rate beginning to line up more with how deadly the virus actual is rather than a sample size of people showing only severe symptoms. 

[tradephoric]

^That makes sense.  So basically early in the pandemic the sample size was heavily weighted to the most vulnerable populations (ie. elderly and people with underlying conditions) as these were the people most likely to be tested and suffering severe symptoms.  Now that nearly anyone can get tested, it's sampling younger healthier individuals who are much more likely to survive.