Interstate 81 in Syracuse

[Beltway]

Claim that I‑481 can "handle higher AADT" ignores the math. A bypass carrying ~43,000 AADT on four lanes cannot seamlessly absorb an additional ~67,000. Even with widening, the compuke is obvious: capacity shortfall plus truck percentages.

Most of us here were actually in favor of replacing the viaduct to modern standards, but the notion that an additional 67k or even half of that amount will end up on I-481 is truly laughable.

So will it merely EVAPuate?

[webny99]

Claim that I‑481 can "handle higher AADT" ignores the math. A bypass carrying ~43,000 AADT on four lanes cannot seamlessly absorb an additional ~67,000. Even with widening, the compuke is obvious: capacity shortfall plus truck percentages.

Most of us here were actually in favor of replacing the viaduct to modern standards, but the notion that an additional 67k or even half of that amount will end up on I-481 is truly laughable.

So will it merely EVAPuate?

No, but >50% of traffic currently using the viaduct will continue to use the existing or immediately parallel corridors. The NY 173 corridor is also an option between south and west.

[Beltway]

So will it merely EVAPuate?

No, but >50% of traffic currently using the viaduct will continue to use the existing or immediately parallel corridors. The NY 173 corridor is also an option between south and west.

How about run a test and see what happens? Close the viaduct for a month.

[vdeane]

Can we just ship Beltway off to Azerbaijan?  He's repeating his tendency from the Key Bridge thread of ignoring everything everyone posts that debunks his assertions and repeating them over and over again.  Meanwhile, any discussion that might have been had about the status of the construction has since been subsumed.  At this point, I can only conclude that he is intentionally sabotaging discussion on projects that he does not like.

[Beltway]

Can we just ship Beltway off to Azerbaijan?  He's repeating his tendency from the Key Bridge thread of ignoring everything everyone posts that debunks his assertions and repeating them over and over again.  Meanwhile, any discussion that might have been had about the status of the construction has since been subsumed.  At this point, I can only conclude that he is intentionally sabotaging discussion on projects that he does not like.

You've accused me of "ignoring everything everyone posts" and "sabotaging discussion." Let's be clear: no one has actually refuted the technical points I've raised. What I see instead are ridicule bombs ("ship him to Azerbaijan") and meta‑commentary about my posting style. That's spectacle, not substance.

On the Key Bridge thread, my argument was straightforward:
- The concrete ring system is less robust than the Sunshine Skyway's protections from the 1980s.
- It creates new hazards for small craft and local commercial vessels.
- It does not meaningfully protect against Panamax‑class ships.
- Better alternatives exist -- either a full span with no piers in the water, or a tunnel under the harbor.

None of those points has been addressed with evidence. Instead, the discussion has been subsumed by accusations about my motives. That's a derailment of the infrastructure topic itself.

If you want to engage, then engage the argument: show how the rings protect against Panamax ships, explain why they don't pose hazards to small craft, or demonstrate why the Sunshine Skyway comparison is invalid. Until then, dismissing me as "sabotage" is just rhetorical theater.

[ElishaGOtis]

Getting back on topic, how many 4-lane freeways do carry AADT 100k VPD in the USA presently?

[webny99]

Getting back on topic, how many 4-lane freeways do carry AADT 100k VPD in the USA presently?

Extremely few, if any (perhaps the BQE, or I-76 near Philly?). With 100k AADT, congestion would be bad enough for most of the day that traffic would be seeking alternate routes, making it difficult to even reach that threshold in practice.

Regardless, I'm not sure that's even on-topic either as none of the remaining four-lane sections of I-481 will come close to 100k AADT, even with the added traffic.

[froggie]

FHWA data show a significant share of through‑traffic and regional freight.

Source?

And the reason for the ask is because an O-D study was done near the beginning of the corridor studies and IIRC found that "through traffic" (that which is on I-81 outside of 481 on both sides) was in the 6-8K range.

Syracuse's viaduct is regional infrastructure, not just neighborhood traffic.

It may be "regional infrastructure" (being an Interstate).  But what has been pointed out by several others and which you refuse to accept is that the majority of traffic on it is local.

[Beltway]

Getting back on topic, how many 4-lane freeways do carry AADT 100k VPD in the USA presently?

Good question.

The busiest 4-lane freeway in Virginia doesn't carry that much other than on a few peak days per year.

That is the I-64 Hampton Roads Bridge-Tunnel with ~83,000 AADT.

About 10–15 days per year cross the 100,000 threshold -- concentrated in summer and holiday peaks. That causes backups of 5 miles or more at the peak of the day.

[vdeane]

You've accused me of "ignoring everything everyone posts" and "sabotaging discussion." Let's be clear: no one has actually refuted the technical points I've raised. What I see instead are ridicule bombs ("ship him to Azerbaijan") and meta‑commentary about my posting style. That's spectacle, not substance.

You literally ignored my showing that your 67k figure for traffic using the viaduct was BS and then proceeded to imply that I-481 is going to be overwhelmed because it already has an AADT around 40k.  In reality, only a small piece of it does (most of it has an AADT closer to 20-25k), and that piece is the part being widened.  You repeatedly act like the overwhelming majority of traffic using I-81 between I-481 and I-690 is thru traffic that will be diverting to I-481 despite their being ample evidence (which we have shown and you have either ignored or dismissed out of hand) that the traffic is much more local.  The idea that someone who's getting on in the surrounding neighborhoods or who's destination is nearby is going to divert to I-481 is laughable.

Why should the rest of us "debate" you on your terms when you repeatedly fail to engage the forum in good faith?  Arguing with you is far too similar to arguing with certain online political trolls for comfort.  Like I said, I can't take you any more seriously than I take My Immortal.

My Immortal, by "Tara Gilesbie", is an infamous Harry Potter Fan Fiction.

Ebony Dark'ness Dementia Raven Way is a seventh-year Slytherin who's overwhelmingly beautiful, "goff" and has Draco Malfoy wrapped around her pale finger. Everywhere she goes, her fellow students are smitten by her hot, goffik So Beautiful, It's a Curse body. She's usually surrounded by her friends, "Stanist" "goffs" who slit their wrists, cry tears of blood, shop at Hot Topic and move into Slytherin, while everyone else (including Dumblydore) is a prep who listens to Avril Lavigne and hates the goffs for no reason.

The plot is mostly centered around Vlodemort trying to force Enoby to kill Harry. After this, Evony goes back in tim to try to prevent Tom Bombodil from ever becoming Volxemort, by making him fall in love with her. Snap and Loopin are pedophiles who enjoy masticating and eventually get sent to Azerbaijan (or "Abhkazian", which could possibly be a product of the Cupertino Problem if not for the fact that the fic has clearly never seen a spellchecker). Then there's some drama between Egogy, Drako, and Vampire, and... who are we kidding? There's nothing resembling a plot here.

What this fic does have, however, is sex, torture, rape, time travel (Marty McFly makes an inexplicable cameo), guns, goth concerts, ludicrous and confusing nicknames, dramatic entrances, tears of blood, wrist-cutting, homo-/bisexuality, fishnets, and clothing descriptions worthy of American Psycho. Then there's the OOC drama, ranging from Tara's constant interaction with her incensed reviewers, the rocky relationship between Tara and her best friend, Raven, and back-and-forth between Tara and a mysterious "hacker." The constant spelling mistakes don't help the reader's understanding either. Depending on who you believe, it's either one of the worst fanfics ever written or a shining example of a Troll Fic.

I'm not going to touch your attempt to re-litigate the Key Bridge again in this thread with a 10 foot pole.

Getting back on topic, how many 4-lane freeways do carry AADT 100k VPD in the USA presently?

Considering that Beltway is the only person claiming I-481 will be a four-lane freeway with a 100k AADT, I don't think this is on topic.  I'd much rather discuss things like re-designation, signing, and construction progress.

[Beltway]

FHWA data show a significant share of through‑traffic and regional freight.

Source?
And the reason for the ask is because an O-D study was done near the beginning of the corridor studies and IIRC found that "through traffic" (that which is on I-81 outside of 481 on both sides) was in the 6-8K range.

Syracuse's viaduct is regional infrastructure, not just neighborhood traffic.

It may be "regional infrastructure" (being an Interstate).  But what has been pointed out by several others and which you refuse to accept is that the majority of traffic on it is local.

Pretty much true on metropolitan freeways in general. And even I-481 is "local."

Like I said, they could run a test closure and see what happens.

Prove people like me wrong if indeed that is the case.

I am a minimal Syracuse user but am a major Buffalo area visitor. There has been talk about demolishing the NY-5 Skyway there.  So my commentary here is not merely academic. Same state, same DOT.

[Beltway]

Considering that Beltway is the only person claiming I-481 will be a four-lane freeway with a 100k AADT, I don't think this is on topic.  I'd much rather discuss things like re-designation, signing, and construction progress.

Omigod ... almost everything you posted is out in at least short center field.

I've said what I need to say on the technical side, and I don't see value in continuing a back‑and‑forth that's more about style than substance. What I notice is a recurring pattern: ridicule bombs, meta‑accusations, and long tangents that derail threads away from the actual infrastructure issues. That's spectacle drift, not stewardship. I'll step aside here -- others can judge the arguments on their own merits.

[webny99]

About 10–15 days per year likely cross the 100,000 threshold -- concentrated in summer and holiday peaks. That causes backups of 5 miles or more at the peak of the day.

Before and after the 2024 solar eclipse is probably the closest we've come to seeing 5-mile backups in Syracuse since the advent of the automobile...

[vdeane]

Like I said, they could run a test closure and see what happens.

Prove people like me wrong if indeed that is the case.

I fail to see what closing the viaduct before the associated improvements to make this work are finished would prove, other than being a biased "study" to get your intended result.  The project works together in tandem - the I-481 improvements of contracts 1 and 2, the local street improvements in contracts 3, 4, and 8, and the I-690 improvements in contracts 4 and 6 - which you either can't or refuse to see.

Considering that Beltway is the only person claiming I-481 will be a four-lane freeway with a 100k AADT, I don't think this is on topic.  I'd much rather discuss things like re-designation, signing, and construction progress.

Omigod ... almost everything you posted is out in at least short center field.

Like everyone of your temperament, every accusation is a confession.

[Beltway]

About 10–15 days per year likely cross the 100,000 threshold -- concentrated in summer and holiday peaks. That causes backups of 5 miles or more at the peak of the day.

Before and after the 2024 solar eclipse is probably the closest we've come to seeing 5-mile backups in Syracuse since the advent of the automobile...

There were backups all over the place even on many rural Interstate highways.

I came back to Virginia from the Buffalo area the next day, and there were considerable rural Interstate traffic problems even then.

I viewed the 2017 solar eclipse in Madisonville, Tenn. Left Madisonville the same day and I-75 was a parking lot and it took me 4 hours to get to just east of Knoxville, where I fortunately found a motel room at a reasonable cost. That is about 70 miles . . .

[Beltway]

Like I said, they could run a test closure and see what happens.
Prove people like me wrong if indeed that is the case.

I fail to see what closing the viaduct before the associated improvements to make this work are finished would prove, other than being a biased "study" to get your intended result.  The project works together in tandem - the I-481 improvements of contracts 1 and 2, the local street improvements in contracts 3, 4, and 8, and the I-690 improvements in contracts 4 and 6 - which you either can't or refuse to see.

True -- but aren't those direct connections almost complete at each I-81/I-481 junction?

[vdeane]

About 10–15 days per year likely cross the 100,000 threshold -- concentrated in summer and holiday peaks. That causes backups of 5 miles or more at the peak of the day.

Before and after the 2024 solar eclipse is probably the closest we've come to seeing 5-mile backups in Syracuse since the advent of the automobile...

There were backups all over the place even on many rural Interstate highways.

Way to completely miss the point he was making.

Like I said, they could run a test closure and see what happens.
Prove people like me wrong if indeed that is the case.

I fail to see what closing the viaduct before the associated improvements to make this work are finished would prove, other than being a biased "study" to get your intended result.  The project works together in tandem - the I-481 improvements of contracts 1 and 2, the local street improvements in contracts 3, 4, and 8, and the I-690 improvements in contracts 4 and 6 - which you either can't or refuse to see.

True -- but aren't those direct connections almost complete at each I-81/I-481 junction?

Contract 1 is in the home stretch.  Regarding contract 2, the southern interchange is theoretically supposed to open this month, but I'm skeptical of that, and the bridges over the rail yard are nowhere close to completion.  Work on local streets under contracts 3 and 4 is ongoing and will still be ongoing over the next year or two.  Contract 8 hasn't begun.  Contract 4 work for I-690 is underway and will be ongoing over the next year or two, and contract 6 has yet to begin construction.

[Beltway]

Way to completely miss the point he was making.

I never claimed that I-481 would increase to over 100,000 AADT.

Contract 1 is in the home stretch.  Regarding contract 2, the southern interchange is theoretically supposed to open this month, but I'm skeptical of that, and the bridges over the rail yard are nowhere close to completion.  Work on local streets under contracts 3 and 4 is ongoing and will still be ongoing over the next year or two.  Contract 8 hasn't begun.  Contract 4 work for I-690 is underway and will be ongoing over the next year or two, and contract 6 has yet to begin construction.

I looked at the FEIS link. I was disappointed to see that instead of a 6-lane boulevard or pair of one-way 3-lane streets, and high-capacity ramps connecting that to I-81 at either end, proposed there are just the ordinary 4-lane streets and one-lane connectors to I-81. I didn't see any real expansion of surface streets.

[webny99]

Way to completely miss the point he was making.

I never claimed that I-481 would increase to over 100,000 AADT.

Well, the "math" was strongly implied...

The numbers don't compuke. A freeway that carries up to ~67,000 AADT taken out of service and its I-81 route being shifted to a bypass that carries up to ~43,000 AADT on 4 lanes (2 each way).

[ElishaGOtis]

I only mentioned 100k VPD as the absolute worst case scenario given the above numbers. I do expect that some traffic will remain on BL-81 through the downtown, as only a small portion of the corridor will be de-freeway-ed. Personally, I doubt 481 would get THAT more busy but it could certainly get an increase...

Is BRT or LRT being considered anywhere in Syracuse?

[Beltway]

Way to completely miss the point he was making.

I never claimed that I-481 would increase to over 100,000 AADT.

Well, the "math" was strongly implied...

The numbers don't compuke. A freeway that carries up to ~67,000 AADT taken out of service and its I-81 route being shifted to a bypass that carries up to ~43,000 AADT on 4 lanes (2 each way).

Part of the traffic would go to surface streets and arterials.

[Rothman]

No need for a physical test since the traffic was extensively modeled.

As with the Key Bridge, Beltway is simply proving that armchair antics are ridiculous, especially as he ignores the facts that have been brought forward by others.

...

Although sending him to Azerbaijan is extreme, it is becoming harder and harder to see the benefits of Beltaay's antics on the forum as outweighing their costs.  Damage to the forum is being done and I'm just talking about for our little group of enthusiasts on here, rather than any broader appeal to public or whatever.  He's putting himself in the camp of other bad actors we've had on here.

I think there's a general feeling the forum is in decline.  I'd hope there is no need to accelerate such...but, then again, maybe we should just let it go and be done with it.

[Plutonic Panda]

^^^ I think we might've actually agreed on something in this thread!

[Beltway]

Although sending him to Azerbaijan is extreme, it is becoming harder and harder to see the benefits of Beltaay's antics on the forum as outweighing their costs.  Damage to the forum is being done and I'm just talking about for our little group of enthusiasts on here, rather than any broader appeal to public or whatever.  He's putting himself in the camp of other bad actors we've had on here.
I think there's a general feeling the forum is in decline.  I'd hope there is no need to accelerate such...but, then again, maybe we should just let it go and be done with it.

Some basic differences between you and I --
1) I don't tell people where and what to post
2) I don't tell people what not to post
3) I don't tell people to leave the forum
4) I don't frame fellow posters as "bad actors" or lump them with past trolls.
5) I don't declare the forum in decline as a way to discredit individuals.
6) I don't use professional identity or job titles to amplify personal opinion.
7) I don't suggest exile or removal, even jokingly, as a way to silence critique.
8) I don't pivot threads into reputational theater -- my focus stays on substance (design, finance, precedent)

My focus has been on substance-- traffic modeling, bridge precedent, and project design. Labeling critique as 'antics' or forum damage shifts the thread into reputational theater. The real value comes from addressing technical questions directly, not from policing who belongs here.

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