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Author Topic: Tropical cyclone tracking thread  (Read 53877 times)

CNGL-Leudimin

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Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« on: May 07, 2015, 11:08:01 AM »

I had this thread in mind for a long time (Some of you might have read my signature ;)), and now that there's a high chance an off-season storm might form off the Southeast, I think it's the time to create it (Also, we are in the time of the year with the least cyclone activity). I'm sure you will be more interested in what happens in the Atlantic since cyclones that form there may hit the U.S., but this thread is open to everything, elsewhere. Right now I'm tracking typhoon Noul, spelt by me as No-eul (Damn North Korea using a different romanization from that of the South) and known in the Philippines as Dodong (this is for sammi), currently a Category 3-equivalent typhoon headed to Luzon in Northern Philippines. And according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) there's already another tropical storm in the Eastern part of Micronesia... but Japan still doesn't say so and thus they haven't named it yet.
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Scott5114

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #1 on: May 07, 2015, 11:43:38 AM »

Too early to worry about tropical cyclones yet! It's tornado season!
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Thing 342

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #2 on: May 07, 2015, 11:48:20 AM »

Have been following the recon mission into 90L this morning. The plane recently found areas of 55kt winds on the northwest side of the system.

Follow along here: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/
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US71

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #3 on: May 07, 2015, 01:47:48 PM »

Too early to worry about tropical cyclones yet! It's tornado season!
Do you think Mother Nature cares?
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Brandon

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #4 on: May 07, 2015, 03:44:39 PM »

Too early to worry about tropical cyclones yet! It's tornado season!

It's always tornado season.  We've had January ones in northern Illinois before.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #5 on: May 08, 2015, 09:02:55 AM »

Subtropical Storm Ana is likely the highlight of the 2015 Atlantic basin season!  :-D

CNGL-Leudimin

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #6 on: May 08, 2015, 09:29:10 AM »

Too early to worry about tropical cyclones yet! It's tornado season!

It never is too early! I've been tracking tropical cyclones all year round. The Southern hemisphere cyclone season ended a week ago. I enjoyed tracking Cyclone Eunice across Southern Indian ocean in late January even if it stayed out to sea, it became a Category 5 storm with up to 150 mph winds (measured to 10 minutes, as opposed to 1 minute winds both NHC and JTWC use, so I adjusted the Saffir-Simpson scale for my own purposes).
Subtropical Storm Ana is likely the highlight of the 2015 Atlantic basin season!  :-D

Not fully tropical, not interesting to me. I'll stay with Typhoon Noul for now. I prefer a Category 5 typhoon over open Pacific to a tropical storm treatening the US. An advantage of living far away from where tropical cyclones form :sombrero:.

PS: Last year by late October a Hurricane Ana happened :bigass:. It was in the Central Pacific (which I group with the Eastern Pacific like Wikipedia does), though.
« Last Edit: May 08, 2015, 09:35:13 AM by CNGL-Leudimin »
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"Football", a quite ambiguous word for me. I assume "association" football instead of "American" football.

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ET21

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #7 on: May 08, 2015, 11:40:35 AM »

I'm gonna like this thread  :biggrin: Weather nerds unite!
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Scott5114

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #8 on: May 08, 2015, 08:05:10 PM »

Even so, tomorrow is going to be a pretty significant weather day for central Oklahoma. Don't be surprised if we get an EF4 or higher. If you're a weather geek, it will be worth watching.
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CNGL-Leudimin

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #9 on: May 09, 2015, 09:25:06 AM »

Ana has become fully tropical and now I recognize it. However, when there's also a Category 4 typhoon with a North Korean name somewhere else...
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"Football", a quite ambiguous word for me. I assume "association" football instead of "American" football.

All times Eastern unless otherwise noted.

CNGL-Leudimin

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #10 on: June 11, 2015, 11:26:36 AM »

I bump this thread. As a tropical cyclone tracker, I'm very pleased the NHC has given my first name to the newly formed tropical storm South of Mexico :sombrero:.

Highlights in the last month include typhoon Dolphin intesifying all the way to Category 5 (second in a row, Noul also got there) and then suddenly the Western Pacific went dead. Meanwhile the Eastern Pacific season (which started on May 15) got an explosive start with hurricanes Andres and Blanca both getting to Category 4. I blame this on El Niño. And right now we are getting a rare tropical cyclone landfall in Oman, by tropical storm* Ashobaa.

*Actually and due to that designation being absent from the North Indian scale, calling this a 'tropical storm' is somewhat incorrect. Same happens in Australia and the South Pacific.
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All times Eastern unless otherwise noted.

ET21

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #11 on: June 13, 2015, 11:35:19 AM »

What remained of Hurricane Blanca from the Pacific went across the US and just departed the Midwest along a stationary frontal boundary. Combining Blanca's moisture, a stationary front, and a ton of moisture from the Gulf brought 3-6 inches of rain to much of Central and Northwest Illinois.

Currently I'm on a 6 day precip streak with 2.55 inches of rain so far with the next 6 of 7 days having some sort of a chance of rain.
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dcbjms

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #12 on: June 13, 2015, 12:54:09 PM »

Is there any track which would have the remnants of Blanca come towards the Northeast?  We could use some more rain in our reservoirs (considering everyone around me is talking about a wicked hot summer with few if any rainfall).
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Thing 342

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #13 on: June 13, 2015, 05:46:17 PM »

A disturbance near the Yucatan Peninsula could bring unneeded rain to Texas and the Gulf Coast:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3017
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Road Hog

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #14 on: June 14, 2015, 06:47:44 PM »

The farther east that thing tracks, the better. We've been dry for a couple of weeks, but the lakes are just now dropping below the spillways.
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ET21

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #15 on: June 14, 2015, 10:53:18 PM »

Is there any track which would have the remnants of Blanca come towards the Northeast?  We could use some more rain in our reservoirs (considering everyone around me is talking about a wicked hot summer with few if any rainfall).

The remnants have already moved through. I believe that was Wednesday???
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dcbjms

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #16 on: June 14, 2015, 11:50:53 PM »

Is there any track which would have the remnants of Blanca come towards the Northeast?  We could use some more rain in our reservoirs (considering everyone around me is talking about a wicked hot summer with few if any rainfall).

The remnants have already moved through. I believe that was Wednesday???

Well, I guess we didn't notice it 'round here - all we got were clouds and that was it.  We could use some more rain, that's for sure.
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US71

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #17 on: June 15, 2015, 09:14:41 AM »

A disturbance near the Yucatan Peninsula could bring unneeded rain to Texas and the Gulf Coast:


Can we mail it to California?
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Alex

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #18 on: August 19, 2015, 02:53:28 PM »

CNGL-Leudimin, thoughts on Danny? Recurve out to sea? Entrain too much Saharan dust and disintegrate? Make it to the Caribbean and become a threat?





I still recall 1997's Hurricane Danny, which made a significant impact while stalled over Mobile bay. The name should have been retired.

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #19 on: August 19, 2015, 02:57:20 PM »

Wait. I thought Danny was done and over with. Now he's back at it again threatening to hit the Gulf Coast perhaps? You gotta be kidding me.
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CNGL-Leudimin

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #20 on: August 20, 2015, 04:23:27 AM »

CNGL-Leudimin, thoughts on Danny? Recurve out to sea? Entrain too much Saharan dust and disintegrate? Make it to the Caribbean and become a threat?

I'm currently more focused on typhoons Goni (Ineng for sammi and the Philippines) and Atsani, the former is threatening both Philippines and Taiwan but will recurve before hitting them, and the later was briefly a Category 5 storm. Anyway, something is saying me Danny will be a long-lived storm, but it is still too early to say if it will recurve or hit Florida.

Oh, and lists in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific (East of 140ºW) are recycled every six years except for retired names. Philippines also does that, but every four years. Meanwhile, Central Pacific (i.e. Eastern Pacific West of 140ºW), Western and Southern Pacific and Australia go on and when they reach the end of their lists they start over, Southwestern Indian uses brand new lists every season (They have yet to release the 2015-16 one) and is expected for Northern Indian to make up a new list when it reaches the end of current one.

PS: I liked hurricane typhoon Halola, taking a Hawaiian name all the way to Japan!
« Last Edit: August 20, 2015, 04:28:59 AM by CNGL-Leudimin »
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Thing 342

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #21 on: August 20, 2015, 07:07:41 AM »

If I was a betting man, I'd have Danny dying out somewhere in the east Caribbean, either getting torn apart by the mountains of Hispaniola or Puerto Rico, or a combination of the accelerating trade winds and dry air limiting thunderstorm activity. If it gets past there, I'd watch for it on the lower Atlantic coast or the gulf as it starts to recurve.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #22 on: August 20, 2015, 10:58:16 AM »

Danny has recovered significantly from the dry air entrainment of two days ago. The storm is even starting to show the signs of an eye.

And just now the NHC upgraded it to a Hurricane:

Quote
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042015
1100 AM AST THU AUG 20 2015

...DANNY STRENGTHENS INTO THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2015 ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 44.8W
ABOUT 1090 MI...1755 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES

Oh, and lists in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific (East of 140ºW) are recycled every six years except for retired names. Philippines also does that, but every four years. Meanwhile, Central Pacific (i.e. Eastern Pacific West of 140ºW), Western and Southern Pacific and Australia go on and when they reach the end of their lists they start over, Southwestern Indian uses brand new lists every season (They have yet to release the 2015-16 one) and is expected for Northern Indian to make up a new list when it reaches the end of current one.

Knew that, like you I've been an avid tracker of storms going back to 1985.  :biggrin:

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #23 on: August 20, 2015, 11:58:49 AM »

Give me a Cat 1 hurricane to finally watch on sat images in the Atlantic
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The local weatherman, trust me I can be 99.9% right!
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Thing 342

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #24 on: August 20, 2015, 07:38:15 PM »

Give me a Cat 1 hurricane to finally watch on sat images in the Atlantic

 :bigass:
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