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Author Topic: Tropical cyclone tracking thread  (Read 59252 times)

bing101

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #475 on: October 08, 2018, 08:12:12 PM »

https://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2018/10/gov_kay_ivey_declares_state_of.html


Update Alabama has declared a state of Emergency for Hurricane Michael.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #476 on: October 09, 2018, 11:22:51 PM »

I mentioned this in the Tropical Cyclone tracking thread, but I personally think Michael will make landfall as a 125 mph Cat 3 (peak strength). Given the rate of intensity, it could be raised.

Why do you always hope for the worst?
Why do you always start arguments in EVERY THREAD YOU ARE IN?

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #477 on: October 09, 2018, 11:41:46 PM »

I mentioned this in the Tropical Cyclone tracking thread, but I personally think Michael will make landfall as a 125 mph Cat 3 (peak strength). Given the rate of intensity, it could be raised.
Why do you always hope for the worst?
Why do you always start arguments in EVERY THREAD YOU ARE IN?

I most certainly don't.

Why did you post "cracks" about me "marrying Lansford" several years ago when I was posting under the "soft anonymity" of only the "Beltway" moniker? 

Why did you "criticise" me for "saying that the world was created six thousand years ago" when I was posting in favor of the abiotic oil theory several years ago?  I didn't suggest that at all, just that there may be natural processes deep within the Earth that produce oil.

Stuff it, Steve.  You said those things and others under the color of being a moderator.  Frankly your moderation style is rather immature at times.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #478 on: October 10, 2018, 02:45:02 AM »

Catagory 4 is what Michael is now. Also Leslie is a hurricane again.

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #479 on: October 10, 2018, 08:37:36 AM »

I'm watching Leslie now as it could affect Spain this weekend (as an extratropical system, of course!). Right now models aren't agreeing on where it would go. This seems a repeat of Nadine... coincidentally a tropical storm with that name appeared yesterday.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #480 on: October 10, 2018, 09:27:56 AM »

Congratulations all around to all the meteorologists who failed to forecast that Hurricane Michael would be a category 4 storm at this point.  4 days ago, they said it would be a category 1; 3 days ago, they said it would be category 2. 36 hours ago they said category 3.  It's almost a category 5 storm.  It's only been drifting northward over bizarrely warm water with limited shear.  4 days ago I was really skeptical of that category 1 forecast.  Now I know I should have listened to my instinct.  People should demand that the National Hurricane Center improve their forecasts, because this is the kind of failure that can cost people their lives.

On a different note, how weird would it be for Leslie to drift south to the Cabo Verde Islands and then start a new life as a Cabo Verde storm tracking westward again?
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #481 on: October 10, 2018, 09:31:28 AM »

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #482 on: October 10, 2018, 09:38:50 AM »

Congratulations all around to all the meteorologists who failed to forecast that Hurricane Michael would be a category 4 storm at this point.

Having seen hundreds of these forecasts, they're usually careful enough to state that a storm "may strengthen" and "we're keeping an eye on it", even for the weak tropical storms that may never make landfall.

If folks didn't learn anything from the thousands that didn't evacuate from Florence just a few weeks ago, then only willful ignorance is to blame.
« Last Edit: October 10, 2018, 09:41:33 AM by formulanone »
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #483 on: October 10, 2018, 09:59:30 AM »

Congratulations all around to all the meteorologists who failed to forecast that Hurricane Michael would be a category 4 storm at this point.  4 days ago, they said it would be a category 1; 3 days ago, they said it would be category 2. 36 hours ago they said category 3.  It's almost a category 5 storm.  It's only been drifting northward over bizarrely warm water with limited shear.  4 days ago I was really skeptical of that category 1 forecast.  Now I know I should have listened to my instinct.  People should demand that the National Hurricane Center improve their forecasts, because this is the kind of failure that can cost people their lives.

This actually has been a constant pattern of late.  Over the past 2 years, numerous storms have been predicted to hit a certain windspeed by a certain time, only to have it increase greatly.

The biggest issue is weather forecasters aren't held to any degree of standard, at least in the public eye.  If anything, weather forecasters get the sympathic vote, because "you can't control the weather" and "they try their hardest".  None of that flies in my book.  They literally have one job: Predict the weather.  Unlike nearly anything else, weather has existed since the beginning of time.  The amount of data out there is obscene.  And yet, weather forecasts are amateurishly wrong at times. 

Most people, if they care to notice, notice it during big storms such as a hurricane or snow.  But if you were to actually pay attention to the forecasts on a daily basis, the number of times a predicted cloudy day is actually sunny, or a sunny day winds up rainy, is excruciating often.  The predicted temperature rarely hits the mark.  No one is going to complain if it's a nice sunny day several degrees warmer than forecasted. And most won't notice if it's raining as predicted but instead of the temperature being 80 degrees it's 75 degrees.  However, a predicted rainy day and a predicted high of 35 will have dramatically different results if the high is only 30 degrees.  Same temperature difference, but conditions are dramatically different.

And when it comes to it, people don't really understand forecasts anyway.  I watch a forum for a resort island area.  People book their trips a year out.  But they never look at the forecast until 3 weeks before they go on their trip, only to see a weather map showing nothing but thunderstorms and rain.  First, they ask how the weather is today because they're going away in a few weeks.  Today's weather has absolutely no impact on anything tomorrow, much less a few weeks away.  The chances of a non-stop week's worth of thunderstorms is zero, and when it does happen it occurs for very short periods of time, but people freak out thinking their entire vacation will be ruined.  In the few instances they actually report back after their trip, usually they acknowledge that the weather was sunny except for a few showers. 

So, anyway, the point of my rant is this:  The forecasters once again were wrong in their predictions.  But they're not held accountable in any way, shape or form, so they will continue to have no reason to improve.  If anything, local mayors and state governors will get the brunt of the criticism if there's any problems, even though they best they could do was listen to the very same weather forecasts and prepare based on what they know.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #484 on: October 10, 2018, 10:05:04 AM »

Most people, if they care to notice, notice it during big storms such as a hurricane or snow.  But if you were to actually pay attention to the forecasts on a daily basis, the number of times a predicted cloudy day is actually sunny, or a sunny day winds up rainy, is excruciating often.  The predicted temperature rarely hits the mark.  No one is going to complain if it's a nice sunny day several degrees warmer than forecasted. And most won't notice if it's raining as predicted but instead of the temperature being 80 degrees it's 75 degrees.  However, a predicted rainy day and a predicted high of 35 will have dramatically different results if the high is only 30 degrees.  Same temperature difference, but conditions are dramatically different.

About temperature: it should be displayed as "high of 75±6", not just "high of 75". And if the high isn't between noon and 5 PM, say so.
About rain: 15% chances happen 15% of the time. Additionally, if there's a 15% chance of rain at any given time during the day, the chance that it rains at all that day is significantly more than 15% (exactly how much more depends on other factors).
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #485 on: October 10, 2018, 10:36:12 AM »

Most people, if they care to notice, notice it during big storms such as a hurricane or snow.  But if you were to actually pay attention to the forecasts on a daily basis, the number of times a predicted cloudy day is actually sunny, or a sunny day winds up rainy, is excruciating often.  The predicted temperature rarely hits the mark.  No one is going to complain if it's a nice sunny day several degrees warmer than forecasted. And most won't notice if it's raining as predicted but instead of the temperature being 80 degrees it's 75 degrees.  However, a predicted rainy day and a predicted high of 35 will have dramatically different results if the high is only 30 degrees.  Same temperature difference, but conditions are dramatically different.

This is really the biggest obstacle, I think. People tend to think that a forecast is a specific outcome, and that if that exact outcome doesn't occur, the forecast was wrong. But forecasts are actually ranges and probabilities; just for a basic example, a 60% chance of rain means a 40% chance of not raining. So if it rains, that was one of the possible outcomes, and the forecast was correct. If it doesn't rain, that was another possible outcome, so the forecast is still correct.

There is also the fact that forecasts change over time. A 60% chance of rain for 9am tomorrow morning might become an 80% chance by the midnight before, a 90% chance by 6am, and eventually reach a 100% chance by 9am (i.e., it is raining). But if people are standing around at 9am in the rain saying, "hey, there's only a 60% chance it's raining right now," they're not quite understanding the situation…

I think forecasters are pretty good at cautioning that their predictions will change over time; what could be improved is the awareness that a specific prediction has an intrinsic range and uncertainty. But the public has to take some responsibility for learning what they can—you still often hear people say that they'll never trust tomorrow's forecast, because they can just look out the window and see whether it's raining today. That logic just doesn't hold up.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #486 on: October 10, 2018, 11:29:39 AM »



Congratulations all around to all the meteorologists who failed to forecast that Hurricane Michael would be a category 4 storm at this point.  4 days ago, they said it would be a category 1; 3 days ago, they said it would be category 2. 36 hours ago they said category 3.  It's almost a category 5 storm.  It's only been drifting northward over bizarrely warm water with limited shear.  4 days ago I was really skeptical of that category 1 forecast.  Now I know I should have listened to my instinct.  People should demand that the National Hurricane Center improve their forecasts, because this is the kind of failure that can cost people their lives.

The models and NHC don't do well often with rapid intensification. I know it is hard to predict, but I feel like it is easier than what they predicict. Even the 125 mph storm I predicted would happen was too low and I was above all the guidance.

They did this with Harvey last year. And Patricia was record worst with the error rates (100+ mph just 36 hours out).

LG-TP260

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #487 on: October 10, 2018, 11:44:29 AM »

Congratulations all around to all the meteorologists who failed to forecast that Hurricane Michael would be a category 4 storm at this point.  4 days ago, they said it would be a category 1; 3 days ago, they said it would be category 2. 36 hours ago they said category 3.  It's almost a category 5 storm.  It's only been drifting northward over bizarrely warm water with limited shear.  4 days ago I was really skeptical of that category 1 forecast.  Now I know I should have listened to my instinct.  People should demand that the National Hurricane Center improve their forecasts, because this is the kind of failure that can cost people their lives.

This actually has been a constant pattern of late.  Over the past 2 years, numerous storms have been predicted to hit a certain windspeed by a certain time, only to have it increase greatly.

The biggest issue is weather forecasters aren't held to any degree of standard, at least in the public eye.  If anything, weather forecasters get the sympathic vote, because "you can't control the weather" and "they try their hardest".  None of that flies in my book.  They literally have one job: Predict the weather.  Unlike nearly anything else, weather has existed since the beginning of time.  The amount of data out there is obscene.  And yet, weather forecasts are amateurishly wrong at times. 

Most people, if they care to notice, notice it during big storms such as a hurricane or snow.  But if you were to actually pay attention to the forecasts on a daily basis, the number of times a predicted cloudy day is actually sunny, or a sunny day winds up rainy, is excruciating often.  The predicted temperature rarely hits the mark.  No one is going to complain if it's a nice sunny day several degrees warmer than forecasted. And most won't notice if it's raining as predicted but instead of the temperature being 80 degrees it's 75 degrees.  However, a predicted rainy day and a predicted high of 35 will have dramatically different results if the high is only 30 degrees.  Same temperature difference, but conditions are dramatically different.

And when it comes to it, people don't really understand forecasts anyway.  I watch a forum for a resort island area.  People book their trips a year out.  But they never look at the forecast until 3 weeks before they go on their trip, only to see a weather map showing nothing but thunderstorms and rain.  First, they ask how the weather is today because they're going away in a few weeks.  Today's weather has absolutely no impact on anything tomorrow, much less a few weeks away.  The chances of a non-stop week's worth of thunderstorms is zero, and when it does happen it occurs for very short periods of time, but people freak out thinking their entire vacation will be ruined.  In the few instances they actually report back after their trip, usually they acknowledge that the weather was sunny except for a few showers. 

So, anyway, the point of my rant is this:  The forecasters once again were wrong in their predictions.  But they're not held accountable in any way, shape or form, so they will continue to have no reason to improve.  If anything, local mayors and state governors will get the brunt of the criticism if there's any problems, even though they best they could do was listen to the very same weather forecasts and prepare based on what they know.

1) In their defense, it's not exact science. It goes without saying that storm systems do not follow rails, roads, nor timetables. Each storm system that fails to meet the armchair post-storm expectations of "potential disaster", there's going to be critics that complained that the media over-warned everyone at the expense of other information and people were over-prepared for a gentle rainstorm.

2) Even as ignorant as I choose to be of the news, I've still been hearing about this since Saturday.

3) The "Category" of the storm is listed by a sustained peak wind, though not representative of the entire storm system. If it increases for a few moments into the next category, then that's how it's rated for next few hours.

4) Tropical wave / storm / hurricane prediction used to have a lot more inaccuracy, even 15-20 years ago. Their paths, while not perfect due to all sorts of atmospheric changes, have been far more consistently predicted and tracked in recent years.

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #488 on: October 10, 2018, 11:53:54 AM »

There is also the fact that forecasts change over time. A 60% chance of rain for 9am tomorrow morning might become an 80% chance by the midnight before, a 90% chance by 6am, and eventually reach a 100% chance by 9am (i.e., it is raining). But if people are standing around at 9am in the rain saying, "hey, there's only a 60% chance it's raining right now," they're not quite understanding the situation…

This is where forecasting in advance becomes important:  Let's say I want to do an event this weekend.  Let's say, for fun, I'm gonna rent an open-air bus and have a road-enthusiast meeting.  We all look at the forecast and Saturday looks to be a nice day - mostly sunny, with a 20% chance of rain in the early morning.  We all meet up at 10am and board the bus.  Except, a cold front expected to remain 100 miles to the south crept north, and now it's raining on us.  The bus can't continue because he doesn't run in bad conditions.  The rental fee was non-refundable, so I'm out several hundred bucks.   The attendees all saw the forecast and didn't bring any rain gear.  We can't do our trip, and I'm out several hundred dollars, because the forecast wasn't correct.

Even places that can do well in rainy weather may suffer:  Let's say we decide to bag it and go indoor bungee jumping.  A whole bunch of people are there.  The lines are long.  They are understaffed because the forecast predicted a nice sunny day, and they weren't expecting a whole slew of people arriving.  People get upset and write a bad review on Yelp because they didn't have a great time with long lines and few people working the place.  Or a restaurant that didn't expect a lot of people is now slammed because picnics are cancelled.  Again - negative Yelp reviews.

So, nailing that forecast is important, because basically there's a whole lot of people relying on it.

Oh, the weather forecaster?  They point at their Saturday, 5am forecast showing rain.  They were correct.  They could say back on Wednesday they predicted a 20% chance of rain.  They were correct!    And they'll think nothing of the issues that they caused.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #489 on: October 10, 2018, 12:00:20 PM »



Congratulations all around to all the meteorologists who failed to forecast that Hurricane Michael would be a category 4 storm at this point.  4 days ago, they said it would be a category 1; 3 days ago, they said it would be category 2. 36 hours ago they said category 3.  It's almost a category 5 storm.  It's only been drifting northward over bizarrely warm water with limited shear.  4 days ago I was really skeptical of that category 1 forecast.  Now I know I should have listened to my instinct.  People should demand that the National Hurricane Center improve their forecasts, because this is the kind of failure that can cost people their lives.

The models and NHC don't do well often with rapid intensification. I know it is hard to predict, but I feel like it is easier than what they predicict. Even the 125 mph storm I predicted would happen was too low and I was above all the guidance.

They did this with Harvey last year. And Patricia was record worst with the error rates (100+ mph just 36 hours out).

LG-TP260



Rapid intensification is not rare, but it is only fairly recently understood. It took all the way until Charley and Wilma before it was given a serious look and only recently have there been tools developed that can predict it with any level of skill.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #490 on: October 10, 2018, 01:12:34 PM »

With a pressure of 919 hPa (mb) and landfall expected in the next hour, Michael is likely to be the third most intense landfalling hurricane in U.S. history, following only the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane (892 hPa) and Camille (900 hPa). Katrina and Maria are tied for fourth (920 hPa).
« Last Edit: October 10, 2018, 02:10:50 PM by WillWeaverRVA »
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #491 on: October 10, 2018, 01:22:59 PM »

Michael is the 2nd strongest catagory 4 hurricane in the Atlantic by pressure, only behind Opal (916 mb).

10:40 PDT update: 155 mph at landfall. Strongest October landfall in the US in both wind speed and pressure
« Last Edit: October 10, 2018, 01:41:52 PM by Hurricane Rex »
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #492 on: October 10, 2018, 01:30:22 PM »

Oh, the weather forecaster?  They point at their Saturday, 5am forecast showing rain.  They were correct.  They could say back on Wednesday they predicted a 20% chance of rain.  They were correct!    And they'll think nothing of the issues that they caused.

The problems created by the weather are not the fault of the meteorologist. Don't be ridiculous.
« Last Edit: October 10, 2018, 01:32:45 PM by MNHighwayMan »
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #493 on: October 10, 2018, 01:44:55 PM »

This is where forecasting in advance becomes important:  Let's say I want to do an event this weekend.  Let's say, for fun, I'm gonna rent an open-air bus and have a road-enthusiast meeting.  We all look at the forecast and Saturday looks to be a nice day - mostly sunny, with a 20% chance of rain in the early morning.  We all meet up at 10am and board the bus.  Except, a cold front expected to remain 100 miles to the south crept north, and now it's raining on us.  The bus can't continue because he doesn't run in bad conditions.  The rental fee was non-refundable, so I'm out several hundred bucks.   The attendees all saw the forecast and didn't bring any rain gear.  We can't do our trip, and I'm out several hundred dollars, because the forecast wasn't correct.
[…]
Oh, the weather forecaster?  They point at their Saturday, 5am forecast showing rain.  They were correct.  They could say back on Wednesday they predicted a 20% chance of rain.  They were correct!

Yep, you've got it exactly—the forecast was "correct", because rain was one of the two equally possible outcomes. (Not equally likely, but equally possible.) The salient point here is that we should stop thinking of predictions as being "correct" or "wrong", because they refer to events in the future, by definition impossible to corroborate or to measure.

Quote
And they'll think nothing of the issues that they caused.

And I realize you mean this rhetorically, but indeed, they will think of the issues that result, and of course, they didn't actually cause them. The rain caused the issues, and the people took the (very reasonable) 80% gamble, and happened not to win it that time.

But you make the very good point that, in addition to the responsible dissemination of information (the forecaster), it's equally incumbent on the public to responsibly digest it. The Yelp reviews you mentioned are another great example: how many times have you heard someone say, "wow, you actually trust Yelp reviews?" To which I'd reply, "No, but I trust myself to interpret and digest Yelp reviews as part of making a decision."
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #494 on: October 10, 2018, 02:10:30 PM »

Landfall just northwest of Mexico Beach FL as a Cat 4 storm with winds of 155 mph, 2 mph below Cat 5 strength
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #495 on: October 10, 2018, 05:19:03 PM »

People tend to think that a forecast is a specific outcome, and that if that exact outcome doesn't occur, the forecast was wrong. But forecasts are actually ranges and probabilities; just for a basic example, a 60% chance of rain means a 40% chance of not raining. So if it rains, that was one of the possible outcomes, and the forecast was correct. If it doesn't rain, that was another possible outcome, so the forecast is still correct.

There was a 0% chance of rain today in my local forecast.  Nevertheless, while I was out golfing there were about 2 hours of light rain.

I did bring an umbrella just in case.  I didn't have my 1-iron with me, so I didn't have extra protection from lightning strike.


« Last Edit: October 10, 2018, 06:32:26 PM by Beltway »
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #496 on: October 10, 2018, 05:20:56 PM »

With an ace of 111.5, the 2018 atlantic hurricane season is now garrenteed to be an above average season. So much for that 10% chance prediction back in August.

Hyperactive is at or above 156 ace.

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #497 on: October 10, 2018, 05:22:54 PM »

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #498 on: October 10, 2018, 07:02:25 PM »

https://www.macon.com/news/local/article219770935.html


Update the state of Georgia is now on Hurricane Michael Watch.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #499 on: October 10, 2018, 07:17:09 PM »

https://www.al.com/news/bcb500-hurricane-michael-live-updates-latest-on-path-track-landfall.html
Update Hurricane Michael is heading to Alabama.

Per weather.com --

Dothan, AL   
NNW 39 mph  currently
WNW 48 mph  peak speed at 11:00 pm

Does that look accurate?
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