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Author Topic: Tropical cyclone tracking thread  (Read 43245 times)

bing101

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #501 on: October 10, 2018, 10:04:18 PM »

https://www.al.com/news/bcb500-hurricane-michael-live-updates-latest-on-path-track-landfall.html
Update Hurricane Michael is heading to Alabama.
Per weather.com --
Dothan, AL   
NNW 39 mph  currently
WNW 48 mph  peak speed at 11:00 pm
Per weather.com --

Valdosta, GA
S 44 mph  currently, forecast declining winds

Bainbridge, GA
WSW 48 mph  currently, forecast declining winds

Dothan, AL
NW 44 mph  currently, forecast declining winds

Thomasville, GA
SW 47 mph  currently, forecast declining winds
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #502 on: October 10, 2018, 10:05:10 PM »

With an ace of 111.5, the 2018 atlantic hurricane season is now guaranteed to be an above average season. So much for that 10% chance prediction back in August.

Hyperactive is at or above 156 ace.

I agreed with the 10% too. El Niño was supposed to be a moderating influence. Suddenly we have three hurricanes simultaneously in October (well, 2H+1TS). Maybe it just failed to materialize despite the likelihood foreseen as late as July?

bing101

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #503 on: October 10, 2018, 11:29:54 PM »

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Beltway

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #504 on: October 10, 2018, 11:44:22 PM »

Per weather.com --
Dothan, AL   
NNW 39 mph  currently
WNW 48 mph  peak speed at 11:00 pm
Per weather.com --
Valdosta, GA
S 44 mph  currently, forecast declining winds
Bainbridge, GA
WSW 48 mph  currently, forecast declining winds
Dothan, AL
NW 44 mph  currently, forecast declining winds
Thomasville, GA
SW 47 mph  currently, forecast declining winds

Albany, GA
WSW 37 mph  currently
W 47 mph  peak speed at 1:00 am
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #506 on: October 11, 2018, 09:30:57 AM »

The coast is wrecked. I think a Cat 5 landfall happened.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #507 on: October 11, 2018, 03:34:16 PM »

Meanwhile I'm watching closely hurricane Leslie as it could threaten the Western Canary Islands. The AEMET (the Spanish equivalent of the NWS) has already issued a special advisory.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #508 on: October 11, 2018, 03:39:43 PM »

The storm is forecast to pass thru eastern Virginia with heavy thunderstorms and heavy rain and wind, with peak winds in the 25 to 28 mph range late this evening.  Looked at VA Beach and Richmond hourly forecasts on weather.com.  I'll be watching the James River over the next few days to see if there will be any flooding.

James River at Richmond-Westham
https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=akq&gage=rmdv2

That is a couple miles from my house.
« Last Edit: October 11, 2018, 03:45:43 PM by Beltway »
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #509 on: October 11, 2018, 07:06:32 PM »



The coast is wrecked. I think a Cat 5 landfall happened.

Quote from: Dr. Rick Knabb
it could be upgraded to cat 5 in postseason analysis

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #511 on: October 12, 2018, 05:24:02 PM »

I heard Michael wrecked Northern Virginia and the Delmarva Peninsula too. The weird thing is that most of the DOT websites have been saying the roads are clear, aside from some trees that crashed down onto them.

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #512 on: October 12, 2018, 10:05:35 PM »

I heard Michael wrecked Northern Virginia and the Delmarva Peninsula too. The weird thing is that most of the DOT websites have been saying the roads are clear, aside from some trees that crashed down onto them.

Not that I have heard.  Plenty of (upper 20s with gusts to about 40) wind and very heavy rains at times, lots of power outages, but no major damage.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #513 on: October 13, 2018, 11:35:15 AM »

Meanwhile I'm watching closely hurricane Leslie as it could threaten the Western Canary Islands. The AEMET (the Spanish equivalent of the NWS) has already issued a special advisory.

Looks like Leslie is heading for the mainland, maybe somewhere just north of Lisbon.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #514 on: October 13, 2018, 12:21:53 PM »

James River at Richmond-Westham
https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=akq&gage=rmdv2
That is a couple miles from my house.

Has exceeded flood stage by 3 feet.  That is the peak and will start declining after midnight tonight.  This is only minor flooding.  Water level looks close to that of Riverside Drive in a few places.  Not a big deal as sometimes sections of the road have to close for a while due to something like this.

https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=akq&gage=rmdv2
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #515 on: October 13, 2018, 04:27:54 PM »

Michael is now predicted to give Ireland a miss and head toward the Iberian Peninsula instead (right after Leslie, fun), but Storm Callum has been part of a particularly rainy spell here that has resulted in rivers as high as they ever get. The Liffey was only a few feet below the tops of the bridge arches in Dublin.

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #516 on: October 13, 2018, 05:41:11 PM »

I've been in Hampton Roads working the past four days. Not much damage in South Hampton Roads, some trees down in Newport News. My brother just east of Busch Gardens said there's many people in the area that's still without power, and numerous trees down. I will be back in Richmond later tonight to check out my neighborhood, I have no clue what's going on around there.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #517 on: October 13, 2018, 08:11:45 PM »

I've been in Hampton Roads working the past four days. Not much damage in South Hampton Roads, some trees down in Newport News. My brother just east of Busch Gardens said there's many people in the area that's still without power, and numerous trees down. I will be back in Richmond later tonight to check out my neighborhood, I have no clue what's going on around there.

Lots of power outages in the Richmond area, probably about 20% at the beginning.  I just got mine back after 48 hours without.  Crews from New Brunswick repaired the damage on the line behind my house which serves about 20 homes.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #518 on: October 13, 2018, 11:28:08 PM »

I've been in Hampton Roads working the past four days. Not much damage in South Hampton Roads, some trees down in Newport News. My brother just east of Busch Gardens said there's many people in the area that's still without power, and numerous trees down. I will be back in Richmond later tonight to check out my neighborhood, I have no clue what's going on around there.

Lots of power outages in the Richmond area, probably about 20% at the beginning.  I just got mine back after 48 hours without.  Crews from New Brunswick repaired the damage on the line behind my house which serves about 20 homes.

Just got back home about 20 min ago. My apt is in good shape but my street has debris still scattered about. My power is on but apparently it was off at some point because I saw water on the floor in front of my deep freezer.
« Last Edit: October 13, 2018, 11:31:01 PM by plain »
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #519 on: October 20, 2018, 01:26:58 PM »

With an ACE of 295.5, 2018 becomes the most active east pacific hurricane season on record.

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #520 on: October 20, 2018, 02:21:56 PM »

With an ACE of 295.5, 2018 becomes the most active east pacific hurricane season on record.

How far back do the 'records' go … back before weather satellites, and especially before weather aircaft full coverage,  some cyclones never came near land and remained unknown by humans.  I don't follow the eastern Pacific but I do follow the North Atlantic on NOAA NHC and that is certainly the case there.

« Last Edit: October 20, 2018, 02:24:18 PM by Beltway »
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #521 on: October 20, 2018, 02:30:43 PM »

With an ACE of 295.5, 2018 becomes the most active east pacific hurricane season on record.

How far back do the 'records' go … back before weather satellites, and especially before weather aircaft full coverage,  some cyclones never came near land and remained unknown by humans.  I don't follow the eastern Pacific but I do follow the North Atlantic on NOAA NHC and that is certainly the case there.
1971 is what "reliable" records go to in the epac
1960 in the Atlantic for entire basin: yet the record is currently 1933, despite a lack of knowledge of what was in the deep atlantic.

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #522 on: October 20, 2018, 03:16:03 PM »

With an ACE of 295.5, 2018 becomes the most active east pacific hurricane season on record.

Random spam

But not the one with the most storms, which is still 1992 at 27 (main list exhausted and three hawaiian storms), while this years has had "only" 22 so far (21 from the main list, one hawaiian storm). 2015 had 26 (18 from the main list and 8 hawaiian storms).
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #523 on: October 21, 2018, 09:57:42 AM »

Okay, the TCR for Alberto is out... and is now entered into my database, as they have reclassified it from a subtropical to a fully tropical storm (albeit I have it as starting on May 28, when the TCR considers it became fully tropical as I don't recognize subtropical things).

Fun fact: had subtropical storms been named in 1992, Andrew would be still on the list (at the cost of one "unrecognition" by me), and Bonnie would be gone.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #524 on: October 21, 2018, 07:30:58 PM »

Willa is now a Cat 4 in the EPAC. (We’ve had TEN now) could hit Cat 5
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