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Coronavirus pandemic

Started by Bruce, January 21, 2020, 04:49:28 PM

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tradephoric

Quote from: CoreySamson on May 08, 2020, 01:42:10 PM
All the models before this epidemic hit full swing advocated for a gentle curve over a longer period of time instead of a roller coaster-type curve to cut the number of deaths, so as long as people follow the social distancing guidelines, I'd say Kansas (and the other states you mentioned) are doing a great job. Correct me if I'm wrong.

This graphic sums up my argument about Kansas (and many other states) that have been under extended lock downs even while there is excess capacity in their healthcare systems.  Maybe governors believe they can squash the virus and push cases to near zero if they keep extending the lock downs (and then begin aggressive contact tracing for any cases that pop up), but looking at what's actually happening that appears to be wishful thinking.  By the way i'm not trying to pick on Kansas... you could just as easily replace Kansas with California in the graphic.





kalvado

Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 08, 2020, 02:13:11 PM
Quote from: kalvado on May 08, 2020, 01:54:43 PM
Quote from: CoreySamson on May 08, 2020, 01:42:10 PM
Quote from: tradephoric on May 08, 2020, 01:23:36 PM
Kansas currently has a death rate of 6 per 100,000 compared to New York's death rate of 135 per 100,000.  While New York has seen a significant drop in daily cases, it's concerning that Kansas has only been able to at best 'level off' during these lock down measures.  There are still plenty of cases out there that could fuel a big outbreak once things start to open back up.  Currently 33 states have a COVID death rate of under 10 per 100,000 compared to only 6 states that have seen death rates over 40 per 100,000.  Point is just like Kansas, there are a LOT of states that haven't seen a spike in cases yet (big states too like California, Texas, Florida, Wisconsin).

Isn't "leveling off" what the lockdown is trying to do? I thought the object of lockdown wasn't exactly to cut down on the number of cases, but to lessen the severity of each case by giving the hospitals more time to care for each patient, and not to overload our hospitals with new patients really quickly, like what happened in NYC and in Italy.

All the models before this epidemic hit full swing advocated for a gentle curve over a longer period of time instead of a roller coaster-type curve to cut the number of deaths, so as long as people follow the social distancing guidelines, I'd say Kansas (and the other states you mentioned) are doing a great job. Correct me if I'm wrong.
I assume people were looking at how CHina managed to arrest their spread and take things under control - and assumed same thing would happen elsewhere. Besides, Johnson and Johnson promised vaccinations would begin in April..
By now, it is probably safe to assume that things will keep spreading until we reach 70%+ for herd immunity.  That is about 2 million deaths in US.   

China arrested their spread basically by arresting their citizens if they dared walked outside.  In the US, we have a significantly less restrictive policy, up to and including encouraging people to go outside and walk around.

Did J&J really promise vaccines by April?  I never heard that one.
Looking at older news, I guess I misunderstood things - this is the best I can find: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/28/us-fast-tracks-coronavirus-vaccine-hopes-to-start-trial-in-three-months.html
I believe J&J were the ones behind the timeline, but this is the closest to what I remember: https://www.precisionvaccinations.com/coronavirus-vaccine-candidates-include-vaccines-inovio-moderna-and-vaccitech
Trials are actually ongoing, but I didn't hear about the success of those.

hbelkins

My wife has been cutting my hair for five years or so. I have psoriasis on the back of my head, so I try to keep it cut short to allow air and sunlight to get to my scalp and to keep my sweat from aggravating it (if I sweat a lot, it tends to cause me to scratch the spots.) I just let her take a #1 guard and cut my whole head to that length. I'm not losing a lot of hair to male pattern baldness, but the combination of me going gray and keeping my hair short makes me look bald sometimes. Plus, it's a whole lot easier to take care of. The closure of barber shops and salons has not impacted me at all. I quit using professionals due to financial reasons, as well as  time constraints. I didn't want to take off work to go get my hair cut, Saturdays tend to be crowded at barber shops, and I'd found myself driving an hour on Sunday morning to a Smart Style in Walmart.
Government would be tolerable if not for politicians and bureaucrats.

kalvado

Quote from: tradephoric on May 08, 2020, 02:40:30 PM
Quote from: CoreySamson on May 08, 2020, 01:42:10 PM
All the models before this epidemic hit full swing advocated for a gentle curve over a longer period of time instead of a roller coaster-type curve to cut the number of deaths, so as long as people follow the social distancing guidelines, I'd say Kansas (and the other states you mentioned) are doing a great job. Correct me if I'm wrong.

This graphic sums up my argument about Kansas (and many other states) that have been under extended lock downs even while there is excess capacity in their healthcare systems.  Maybe governors believe they can squash the virus and push cases to near zero if they keep extending the lock downs (and then begin aggressive contact tracing for any cases that pop up), but looking at what's actually happening that appears to be wishful thinking.  By the way i'm not trying to pick on Kansas... you could just as easily replace Kansas with California in the graphic.


Now just push "healthcare system capacity" line way down to get a more accurate picture.

kphoger

Quote from: J N Winkler on May 08, 2020, 02:38:16 PM

Quote from: kphoger on May 08, 2020, 12:31:01 PM
Before we went to Mexico in March, my wife figured she'd better schedule a hair appointment.  The two available dates were (1) the day we'd be driving through Texas on the way south or (2) after we got back.  Obviously, she chose option 2.  Shortly after we returned from Mexico, all hair salons were shut down as non-essential business.  So she's now two months overdue on a haircut.  It's driving her nuts, and I'm sick of her hair clogging up the shower drain.

Have you explored DIY options?  I was reluctant to take a chance on a salon appointment because I was several weeks overdue (last haircut was on February 26 and I try not to go more than eight weeks without one) and long hair can aggravate traction alopecia.

My wife cuts my hair and has for years.  I think the last time I went to a barber for a haircut was probably twelve years ago.

I took my three sons to the barber just shortly before leaving for Mexico, so their hair isn't too terribly long yet.

But there's no way my wife is letting me cut her hair.  I've joked with her about it, but it's a big NO.  I tell her I could just get the right size of mixing bowl and my electric clippers...

He Is Already Here! Let's Go, Flamingo!
Dost thou understand the graveness of the circumstances?
Deut 23:13
Male pronouns, please.

Quote from: PKDIf you can control the meaning of words, you can control the people who must use them.

US71

Quote from: kphoger on May 08, 2020, 02:51:27 PM

But there's no way my wife is letting me cut her hair.  I've joked with her about it, but it's a big NO.  I tell her I could just get the right size of mixing bowl and my electric clippers...

Sounds like you have a death wish.

Like Alice I Try To Believe Three Impossible Things Before Breakfast

bandit957

I just cut my hair myself.
Might as well face it, pooing is cool

J N Winkler

Quote from: kphoger on May 08, 2020, 02:51:27 PMBut there's no way my wife is letting me cut her hair.  I've joked with her about it, but it's a big NO.  I tell her I could just get the right size of mixing bowl and my electric clippers...

Yes--I figured you were probably dealing with a hard No.

I do have a friend who wears her hair long and had her husband cut it very short on the lower sides and back so it would be a little more visually pleasing and easier to deal with.  She says that was successful.  But when she asked their two kids beforehand if she should ask him to give her a trim, the reaction was something like "No!  No!  Don't do it!"
"It is necessary to spend a hundred lire now to save a thousand lire later."--Piero Puricelli, explaining the need for a first-class road system to Benito Mussolini

bandit957

I just read on WLWT's site that the local city of Ludlow, Ky., is no longer going to enforce social distancing rules at its city parks, including the basketball courts. The police posted on Twitter that they don't want people calling and complaining about people not social distancing.
Might as well face it, pooing is cool

kphoger

Quote from: J N Winkler on May 08, 2020, 03:03:37 PM
But when she asked their two kids beforehand if she should ask him to give her a trim, the reaction was something like "No!  No!  Don't do it!"

Kids are affected by small changes in appearance like that, though.

Just yesterday, I trimmed by beard down to a #1 all over (with the grain).  In the recent past, I've been keeping it at a #1.5 or #2, with the bottom kept longer.  I knew she'd like it because she's been egging me for a while to cut it shorter.  But, when we asked my eldest son what he thought, he said he liked it long better, then specifically said "I'm just not used to it".

I know a man whose own child wouldn't let him into the house after he'd shaved his beard off.  The kid didn't even recognize his own father, thought he was a stranger trying to break in, and refused to open the door.

He Is Already Here! Let's Go, Flamingo!
Dost thou understand the graveness of the circumstances?
Deut 23:13
Male pronouns, please.

Quote from: PKDIf you can control the meaning of words, you can control the people who must use them.

gonealookin

I'm clean-shaven on the face but am kind of enjoying being a little shaggy up top.  It's something different.  In college I went 6 months between haircuts so it's a little throwback.  It has been about 3.5 months this time and the hair doesn't grow at the rate it did 40 years ago, so not out of control. Nevada's governor is allowing haircut places to open with some restrictions tomorrow, but I'll let the initial rush pass before I go in.

I've often thought it would also be different to go for a total clean shave up top just to try it out, but living above 6000 feet elevation the sun exposure issues (or cold exposure issues in winter) have dictated against that idea.

SEWIGuy

Quote from: jeffandnicole on May 08, 2020, 09:31:52 AM
Quote from: SEWIGuy on May 08, 2020, 08:49:58 AM
Quote from: bandit957 on May 08, 2020, 08:05:43 AM
I read something interesting a few days ago. Scientists at Arizona State University did a study that says this virus is mutating in the same way SARS did, thus making it far less deadly. This is occurring at the same point SARS died out.

Viruses have to adapt, and in order to do this, they need living hosts who are out and about. They cannot continue to kill people. This is how pandemics die out. The virus will still be out there, but it basically joins all the less lethal viruses out there.

I thought way back in March this would happen sooner or later, just because of the way viruses adapt.


This virus is nowhere near as deadly as SARS and spreads much easier because people can be assymptomatic longer.  It is obviously mutating.  Everything does.  But my guess is that it won't be mutating much.

I think some of the reason it's not as deadly is because of the shutting down of offices and restaurants and such. Doing this with everything, even the flu, would reduce the illnesses and deaths. Heck, even sunburn would be reduced, as you would be home and could easily go back inside if you're in the yard.


SARS had a 9% mortality rate.  Even with no mitigation, no way does COVID-19 reach that high.

Max Rockatansky

Quote from: gonealookin on May 08, 2020, 06:25:37 PM
I'm clean-shaven on the face but am kind of enjoying being a little shaggy up top.  It's something different.  In college I went 6 months between haircuts so it's a little throwback.  It has been about 3.5 months this time and the hair doesn't grow at the rate it did 40 years ago, so not out of control. Nevada's governor is allowing haircut places to open with some restrictions tomorrow, but I'll let the initial rush pass before I go in.

I've often thought it would also be different to go for a total clean shave up top just to try it out, but living above 6000 feet elevation the sun exposure issues (or cold exposure issues in winter) have dictated against that idea.

I have the opposite problem down here in San Joaquin Valley with the temperature lapping 100F today.  Usually I keep my hair as short as possible during the summer months so all that nasty excess hair doesn't become an issue out running and hiking in the heat.  When I lived in Phoenix I had my hair at a constant buzz cut length.  My wife wasn't pleased I didn't want my hair longer but for me it's a practicality thing over how it looks. 

Bruce

I had my last haircut during the first week of March from my usual barber (all the way down in Seattle). His business had already been declining because people didn't want an Asian person touching their heads, apparently.

I'm considering just shaving as much as I can. This weekend, we're heating up to the low 80s and it's going to be hard with my longer hair.
Wikipedia - TravelMapping (100% of WA SRs)

Photos

Roadgeekteen

I last had a haircut in February. I am growing a bit of a mustache, so I will need to start shaving soon.
My username has been outdated since August 2023 but I'm too lazy to change it

ozarkman417

Two B-2 stealth bombers flew over Springfield's National Ave (it has the region's two largest hospitals along it) and I live not too far from one of them.


SM-G965U


Scott5114

I haven't cut my hair since 2017, so not having access to a barber isn't really affecting me much. I can trim off split ends myself if I feel the need to.

Quote from: ozarkman417 on May 08, 2020, 07:53:03 PM
Two B-2 stealth bombers flew over Springfield's National Ave (it has the region's two largest hospitals along it) and I live not too far from one of them.


That's not very stealthy of them, is it?
uncontrollable freak sardine salad chef

TheHighwayMan3561

Culver's rolls out their plan for reopening dining rooms, but saying it's ultimately up to each franchise owner to decide when they're ready.

https://www.culvers.com/coronavirus-update

SEWIGuy

Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on May 08, 2020, 08:56:29 PM
Culver's rolls out their plan for reopening dining rooms, but saying it's ultimately up to each franchise owner to decide when they're ready.

https://www.culvers.com/coronavirus-update


Went to the local Culvers last night.  About 15 cars in the parking lot calling in orders.  About 15 more in the drive through.  I got through in about 20 minutes.  Order was accurate.  Food was hot and good.  They had a nice system down and it worked.

LM117

The governor of South Dakota ain't happy with the Sioux's checkpoints on US and state roads...

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/09/us/south-dakota-sioux-tribes/index.html
"I don't know whether to wind my ass or scratch my watch!" -Jim Cornette

TheHighwayMan3561

Quote from: LM117 on May 09, 2020, 07:58:08 AM
The governor of South Dakota ain't happy with the Sioux's checkpoints on US and state roads...

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/09/us/south-dakota-sioux-tribes/index.html

What takes precedence in this case? The fact that they're sovereign nations with a right to restrict movements on their lands, or the SD DOT maintained highways?

Max Rockatansky

I'm still befuddled what a "questionnaire"  is supposed to accomplish.  Unless someone was visibly showing signs of a fever, why would they even answer truthfully if they didn't meet the criteria in the questionnaire?

oscar

#3047
Quote from: LM117 on May 09, 2020, 07:58:08 AM
The governor of South Dakota ain't happy with the Sioux's checkpoints on US and state roads...

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/09/us/south-dakota-sioux-tribes/index.html

The Sioux tribes have been unhappy with the Governor, too (part of a generally rocky relationship with the state governments of both Dakotas). The Oglala Sioux tribe put out the unwelcome mat for her (I think it wasn't this year), when she indicated she wanted to visit their reservation.

The South Dakota health department website states that there have been a total of two cases (out of over 3000 statewide) in the three counties where the two Sioux tribes with checkpoints are located. Most of the 169 cases among Native Americans in the state are in other tribes' reservations (some closer to the state's current hotspot in the Sioux Falls area than the checkpointing tribes, both west of the Missouri River), or off-reservation. Reasonable that the checkpointing tribes (which have stay-at-home orders for their members) want to keep their case counts down, but restricting or prohibiting through travel on US and state highways crossing the reservations seems excessive.

I crossed both reservations last year, on US 18 and US 212.
my Hot Springs and Highways pages, with links to my roads sites:
http://www.alaskaroads.com/home.html

oscar

Quote from: TheHighwayMan394 on May 09, 2020, 08:25:11 AM
Quote from: LM117 on May 09, 2020, 07:58:08 AM
The governor of South Dakota ain't happy with the Sioux's checkpoints on US and state roads...

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/09/us/south-dakota-sioux-tribes/index.html

What takes precedence in this case? The fact that they're sovereign nations with a right to restrict movements on their lands, or the SD DOT maintained highways?

The Bureau of Indian Affairs told them they can restrict travel on tribal roads. US and state highways passing through the reservations are another story.
my Hot Springs and Highways pages, with links to my roads sites:
http://www.alaskaroads.com/home.html

Tonytone

Promoting Cities since 1998!



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