Coronavirus pandemic

[GaryV]

Haircuts in Michigan, a week from Monday.  Yee-hah!

[bandit957]

I think I'm finally at the point where I can say we should reopen everything - with no major restrictions.

[ftballfan]

Haircuts in Michigan, a week from Monday.  Yee-hah!

In my county, they can open June 10. My mom already has an appointment set up with her hairdresser for 8am that morning.

[GaryV]

I think I'm finally at the point where I can say we should reopen everything - with no major restrictions.

Says the guy who not that long ago said he was afraid to be in public.  What changed so dramatically in the course of the disease that now opening everything is OK?

[bandit957]

I think I'm finally at the point where I can say we should reopen everything - with no major restrictions.

Says the guy who not that long ago said he was afraid to be in public.  What changed so dramatically in the course of the disease that now opening everything is OK?

Things aren't as scary now.

[hotdogPi]

I think I'm finally at the point where I can say we should reopen everything - with no major restrictions.

Says the guy who not that long ago said he was afraid to be in public.  What changed so dramatically in the course of the disease that now opening everything is OK?

Things aren't as scary now.

Cases have gone down in most places. However, a decent number of places have gone up. Gallatin County, KY went up recently; who knows if yours is next?

[Max Rockatansky]

I think I'm finally at the point where I can say we should reopen everything - with no major restrictions.

Says the guy who not that long ago said he was afraid to be in public.  What changed so dramatically in the course of the disease that now opening everything is OK?

Things aren't as scary now.

Cases have gone down in most places. However, a decent number of places have gone up. Gallatin County, KY went up recently; who knows if yours is next?

But the Boogie Man isn't as scary when you know something about him.  The amount of knowledge about Coronavirus, it's effects, spread, symptoms, and mortality rate has improved massively since the start of the year.  Nobody is making 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic comparisons now like they were even three-four months ago.  On the whole you can see the amount of fear dropping in the general populace as people are tending to become more comfortable with going out in public.  Even the news media doesn't pick up Virus stories as much and the economy (namely the stock market) has begun to rebound. 

[kalvado]

I think I'm finally at the point where I can say we should reopen everything - with no major restrictions.

Says the guy who not that long ago said he was afraid to be in public.  What changed so dramatically in the course of the disease that now opening everything is OK?

Things aren't as scary now.

It takes 2-3 weeks for things to become scary again. Do they have an ice rink to store bodies where you live?

[1995hoo]

Haircuts in Michigan, a week from Monday.  Yee-hah!

I got my haircut this morning for the first time since February 29. Barbershops reopened May 29 here. Funny how it takes such troubled times to make you really appreciate the little things in life like haircuts. It wasn't ideal wearing a mask (I had to hold it to my face for part of the time), and the disposable plastic smock they used was rather hot, but those are trivial issues (especially the smock, since I normally come home and shower after a haircut anyway). I'm glad they reopened. There are plenty of small businesses out there that won't.

Next up will be to take the car for the state inspection. The place I normally go had a sign up saying they aren't open today.

[oscar]

I got my haircut this morning for the first time since February 29. Barbershops reopened May 29 here. Funny how it takes such troubled times to make you really appreciate the little things in life like haircuts. It wasn't ideal wearing a mask (I had to hold it to my face for part of the time), and the disposable plastic smock they used was rather hot, but those are trivial issues (especially the smock, since I normally come home and shower after a haircut anyway). I'm glad they reopened. There are plenty of small businesses out there that won't.

One of them is the one-man barbershop I've used for many years. I just found out today he decided to retire, for his health and his family's. He was old enough to be thinking about retirement, so this is not a shock, though he put off his decision a week after he could've reopened.

My last haircut was in mid-March, just before barbershops in my region were shut down. I could use a haircut after almost three months, and will need to find another shop in the next few weeks.

[1995hoo]

Oscar, I'm sure the place I go is too inconvenient for you–the Rose Hill Barber Shop in the strip mall at the intersection of Franconia Road and Rose Hill Drive. I got there at 7:45 this morning and was the first person on line (three others came before they opened at 8:00). It's at the far end of the shopping center just past Safeway. I'm pleased with the haircut I got today. My wife is complaining that it's too short, but I wanted it fairly short now that the weather is getting hotter and humid. The longer hair was driving me nuts.

When my brother and I were kids, we used to go to the Around the Corner Barber Shop on Annandale Road at its intersection with Route 50 (next to where the Jefferson Theatre used to be). It's still there–he went there again for a couple of years when he lived in Falls Church until he moved to Louisiana last spring. He spoke highly of it, even though none of the same barbers are there.

[ghYHZ]

The inter-provincial borders here in the Maritimes and Newfoundland are still closed and you cannot cross into the adjacent province unless it's for essential travel and if you do get across you are required to isolate for 14 days. Trucking is exempt.

Our Charter of Rights (Constitution) allows for unimpeded travel across provincial borders. It's a federal jurisdiction but the provinces appear to be getting around it by declaring a health emergency (a provincial jurisdiction) and the feds seem to be looking the other way.

And the borders here might remain closed for the summer. Anecdotal.....but from news articles I've read  it appears most (including myself) are quite happy to leave as-is and keep the borders closed for now but there are going to be Charter (constitutional) challenges coming.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/n-b-p-e-i-n-l-territories-border-ban-ccla-court-challenge-1.5600235

Covid numbers here in the Maritimes are low. New Brunswick had an count of only 120 cases total and no deaths until last week when someone crossed from Quebec.....didn't self isolate and now's there's a new cluster in the Campbellton area. Now they have recorded a death so the ammunition's there to just keep the borders closed.

Nova Scotia had 61 deaths total but Covid did get into one Seniors Care Home here and 58 of the 61 deaths were in that one facility. Sad!

Prince Edward Island with only 27 cases is considering allowing cottage owners to apply to enter but they would have to isolate for 14 days both coming to PEI and upon return to their own province.....so only practicle if staying for the summer! 

But things are starting to reopen here (Nova Scotia) As of yesterday, June 5.....I can finally get a haircut and our favourite restaurant downtown also reopened last evening with a very spread-out patio. We were lucky to get a seat!
 

[74/171FAN]

But the Boogie Man isn't as scary when you know something about him.  The amount of knowledge about Coronavirus, it's effects, spread, symptoms, and mortality rate has improved massively since the start of the year.  Nobody is making 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic comparisons now like they were even three-four months ago.  On the whole you can see the amount of fear dropping in the general populace as people are tending to become more comfortable with going out in public.  Even the news media doesn't pick up Virus stories as much and the economy (namely the stock market) has begun to rebound.

While I agree in principle (of course the media would be talking more about it if another major story had not taken its place), I am still very much uncomfortable beyond things I can do by myself right now.  I am good with going for a drive, getting food to-go, and going to the dentist; however, I am still very much concerned about giving someone the virus and forcing them into a 14-day quarantine.  This is why I am still not planning to see friends at the moment (I am considering roadmeets and maybe an outdoor gathering depending on how I feel about it moving forward.) or go to church in-person anytime soon.

[NJRoadfan]

NJ is moving to phase 2 (mostly) on June 15th with outdoor dining (only) and non-essential retail opening up at 50% capacity, along with barbers a few days later. New cases have consistently dropped below 1000/day for a few days now. I might have to put any summer trips to NC on hold. Cases there are slowly raising and they are consistently above 1000/day now. Today's NC numbers were more than DOUBLE what was reported in NJ. Keep in mind that NJ reports 2-3x the amount of daily testing NC does, so not a good trend down south.

[Sctvhound]

Updated death projections from covid19-projections.com this Saturday.

US projected mean: 188,662 (-11,468 from last week)

NY: 33,175 (+212)
NJ: 14,776 (-146)
CA: 13,429 (+527)
IL: 10,740 (-2,920)
PA: 9,876 (+219)
MA: 9,474 (-705)
FL: 7,400 (-263)
MI: 6,913 (+49)
OH: 6,799 (-1,359)
MD: 6,133 (+23)
TX: 5,442 (+264)
CT: 5,236 (+6)
GA: 5,029 (-380)
IN: 4,818 (-1,065)
LA: 4,376 (-314)
MN: 4,284 (-206)
VA: 3,834 (-1,266)
NC: 3,492 (-721)
AZ: 3,432 (-964)
CO: 3,132 (-963)
MS: 2,455 (-648)
MO: 2,387 (-27)
AL: 2,157 (-236)
SC: 1,984 (-201)
WA: 1,978 (+283)
WI: 1,765 (+233)
RI: 1,739 (-103)
IA: 1,607 (-657)
TN: 1,245 (+157)
KY: 1,239 (+214)
NM: 1,117 (-203)
NV: 928 (-19)
NH: 825 (-391)
DE: 724 (-219)
DC: 721 (-87)
AR: 598 (+43)
NE: 570 (-245)
OK: 532 (-61)
UT: 450 (+15)
KS: 413 (+30)
OR: 249 (+24)
PR: 203 (+16)
ND: 195 (-57)
SD: 183 (-115)
ME: 163 (+26)
WV: 154 (+25)
ID: 103 (-2)
VT: 64 (-2)
WY: 34 (-31)
MT: 22 (+1)
HI: 21 (-2)
Northern Mariana Islands: 20 (+16)
AK: 12 (Same)
US Virgin Islands: 8 (Same)
Guam: 7 (Same)

Drops in death projections in most states, with California having the highest gain, but we'll see how the Memorial Day holiday and the George Floyd protests could change this outbreak in the next few weeks.

[Max Rockatansky]

But the Boogie Man isn't as scary when you know something about him.  The amount of knowledge about Coronavirus, it's effects, spread, symptoms, and mortality rate has improved massively since the start of the year.  Nobody is making 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic comparisons now like they were even three-four months ago.  On the whole you can see the amount of fear dropping in the general populace as people are tending to become more comfortable with going out in public.  Even the news media doesn't pick up Virus stories as much and the economy (namely the stock market) has begun to rebound.

While I agree in principle (of course the media would be talking more about it if another major story had not taken its place), I am still very much uncomfortable beyond things I can do by myself right now.  I am good with going for a drive, getting food to-go, and going to the dentist; however, I am still very much concerned about giving someone the virus and forcing them into a 14-day quarantine.  This is why I am still not planning to see friends at the moment (I am considering roadmeets and maybe an outdoor gathering depending on how I feel about it moving forward.) or go to church in-person anytime soon.

I think that really depends on the individual.  In my case I've never exactly been the guy who has really exercised a ton of caution in their day-to-day life to begin with given how active I am.  To that end not being in the middle of the world during the entire pandemic hasn't been an option for me.  I was ruled essential with my job from Day 1 with the lock downs.  It wasn't even a question, I had to be at work given I manage emergency response as one of my primary job responsibilities.  To that end I've been around hundreds of people for the past three months, I can't imagine on that basis I haven't exposed to COVID numerous times regardless of PPE.  Further, my wife works in the behavioral health field and has been around people who have been sick since the beginning of the pandemic.  I think that the way I've always lived has had a influence on what I feel towards COVID-19 but even more so the fact that there hasn't been a "stay at home" for me.  Nonetheless, I'm very much happy getting out of the house and being active as much as possible.  At the very least I can get back out to most of hiking destinations with the parks reopening and back country drives that I enjoy given my work restrictions have lessened. 

With things like the gym the potential slow pace and PPE requirements are a bigger concern over safety to me.  Then again I was going to the gym until they day they closed, it was slow then and I imagine it will be for some time after reopening.

[74/171FAN]

But the Boogie Man isn't as scary when you know something about him.  The amount of knowledge about Coronavirus, it's effects, spread, symptoms, and mortality rate has improved massively since the start of the year.  Nobody is making 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic comparisons now like they were even three-four months ago.  On the whole you can see the amount of fear dropping in the general populace as people are tending to become more comfortable with going out in public.  Even the news media doesn't pick up Virus stories as much and the economy (namely the stock market) has begun to rebound.

While I agree in principle (of course the media would be talking more about it if another major story had not taken its place), I am still very much uncomfortable beyond things I can do by myself right now.  I am good with going for a drive, getting food to-go, and going to the dentist; however, I am still very much concerned about giving someone the virus and forcing them into a 14-day quarantine.  This is why I am still not planning to see friends at the moment (I am considering roadmeets and maybe an outdoor gathering depending on how I feel about it moving forward.) or go to church in-person anytime soon.

I think that really depends on the individual.  In my case I've never exactly been the guy who has really exercised a ton of caution in their day-to-day life to begin with given how active I am.  To that end not being in the middle of the world during the entire pandemic hasn't been an option for me.  I was ruled essential with my job from Day 1 with the lock downs.  It wasn't even a question, I had to be at work given I manage emergency response as one of my primary job responsibilities.  To that end I've been around hundreds of people for the past three months, I can't imagine on that basis I haven't exposed to COVID numerous times regardless of PPE.  Further, my wife works in the behavioral health field and has been around people who have been sick since the beginning of the pandemic.  I think that the way I've always lived has had a influence on what I feel towards COVID-19 but even more so the fact that there hasn't been a "stay at home" for me.  Nonetheless, I'm very much happy getting out of the house and being active as much as possible.  At the very least I can get back out to most of hiking destinations with the parks reopening and back country drives that I enjoy given my work restrictions have lessened. 

With things like the gym the potential slow pace and PPE requirements are a bigger concern over safety to me.  Then again I was going to the gym until they day they closed, it was slow then and I imagine it will be for some time after reopening.

I have a friend that has worked with the public the entire time that thinks similarly.  He has always gone to the gym almost daily, and he feels that he has less of a chance of catching it at the gym than at work.  It makes sense that you both think that way.

[Max Rockatansky]

But the Boogie Man isn't as scary when you know something about him.  The amount of knowledge about Coronavirus, it's effects, spread, symptoms, and mortality rate has improved massively since the start of the year.  Nobody is making 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic comparisons now like they were even three-four months ago.  On the whole you can see the amount of fear dropping in the general populace as people are tending to become more comfortable with going out in public.  Even the news media doesn't pick up Virus stories as much and the economy (namely the stock market) has begun to rebound.

While I agree in principle (of course the media would be talking more about it if another major story had not taken its place), I am still very much uncomfortable beyond things I can do by myself right now.  I am good with going for a drive, getting food to-go, and going to the dentist; however, I am still very much concerned about giving someone the virus and forcing them into a 14-day quarantine.  This is why I am still not planning to see friends at the moment (I am considering roadmeets and maybe an outdoor gathering depending on how I feel about it moving forward.) or go to church in-person anytime soon.

I think that really depends on the individual.  In my case I've never exactly been the guy who has really exercised a ton of caution in their day-to-day life to begin with given how active I am.  To that end not being in the middle of the world during the entire pandemic hasn't been an option for me.  I was ruled essential with my job from Day 1 with the lock downs.  It wasn't even a question, I had to be at work given I manage emergency response as one of my primary job responsibilities.  To that end I've been around hundreds of people for the past three months, I can't imagine on that basis I haven't exposed to COVID numerous times regardless of PPE.  Further, my wife works in the behavioral health field and has been around people who have been sick since the beginning of the pandemic.  I think that the way I've always lived has had a influence on what I feel towards COVID-19 but even more so the fact that there hasn't been a "stay at home" for me.  Nonetheless, I'm very much happy getting out of the house and being active as much as possible.  At the very least I can get back out to most of hiking destinations with the parks reopening and back country drives that I enjoy given my work restrictions have lessened. 

With things like the gym the potential slow pace and PPE requirements are a bigger concern over safety to me.  Then again I was going to the gym until they day they closed, it was slow then and I imagine it will be for some time after reopening.

I have a friend that has worked with the public the entire time that thinks similarly.  He has always gone to the gym almost daily, and he feels that he has less of a chance of catching it at the gym than at work.  It makes sense that you both think that way.

In my case I can definitely say that I would encounter less people at the gym as opposed to work even if times were normal.  I can't fathom anyone but the regulars will end up showing up to the gym.  Everyone shows up to work in addition to everyone who has business there, really on that front there has been almost no fall off.  We didn't adopt mask requirements until Mid-April and COVID-19 had been out here in California at least since January (so far that's the proven start time in California). 

[CoreySamson]

I must start out by saying that originally I thought a possible second wave would not happen at all, but the events of the past week changed that for me. Now I'm thinking a second wave is all but assured.

With all these protests going around I'm betting we're going to see a large increase in cases in the big cities where covid was dying out, due to a lack of social distancing in these protests. If that stupid police officer had not murdered Floyd, I'd bet covid would be inconsequential by July. Since he did, I'm predicting covid will stick around for at least until September.

Don't get me wrong, but I'm not trying to discredit the protests surrounding Floyd's death (In fact, I support the black community's right to speak out about it) but now isn't really the time to meet up in large groups and protest traditionally.

[wxfree]

I must start out by saying that originally I thought a possible second wave would not happen at all, but the events of the past week changed that for me. Now I'm thinking a second wave is all but assured.

With all these protests going around I'm betting we're going to see a large increase in cases in the big cities where covid was dying out, due to a lack of social distancing in these protests. If that stupid police officer had not murdered Floyd, I'd bet covid would be inconsequential by July. Since he did, I'm predicting covid will stick around for at least until September.

Don't get me wrong, but I'm not trying to discredit the protests surrounding Floyd's death (In fact, I support the black community's right to speak out about it) but now isn't really the time to meet up in large groups and protest traditionally.

This topic fascinates me.  Flu pandemics seem to happen in waves.  I would love to know why.  We've never had a coronavirus pandemic (that we know of), so we don't know how they behave.  There's no strong evidence of waves yet.  I heard an interview yesterday with someone saying that we're still in the first wave, if this happens in waves.  The numbers in hard-hit areas have gone down, but that's probably a result of distancing.  Since the numbers were so high to begin with, it's hard to keep those numbers growing ever-faster unless you have people intentionally crowding together, and reducing mobility will make it hard for the numbers not to fall by a lot.  If this is a wave, then a few months after it starts the numbers will go down regardless of what we do.  We're just now getting into that period.  If it's a wave, then it will probably come back in another wave.  A wave pattern would be dangerous, because it will make people feel safe when they're not and let more quiet spread happen like it did when the virus first got here.  I would love to know why some viruses have waves, but the projections seem to be calling for a "slow burn" scenario, in which the numbers don't rise, fall to very low levels, and rise again, but just keep going at a slower pace than the first onslaught.  The problem with the projections (besides not knowing if they're accurate) is that they don't go very far into the potential "second wave" season, which would probably start between late August and early November.

A slow burn would probably be a best case scenario (of those that are realistic), because it would keep everyone aware of the ongoing danger with the sustained numbers of diagnoses and hospitalizations, but it wouldn't overwhelm our medical capacity during the upcoming flu season.  I suppose it could be a wave pattern with a high base, not falling to near zero but to a slow burn and then exploding in a second wave later.  I've never gotten a flu shot, but I plan to this year.  If I can keep from catching the flu and maybe needing some hospital space at a time when it might be short, or infecting someone else who might need a hospital space, I want to do that.

[Duke87]

But the Boogie Man isn't as scary when you know something about him.  The amount of knowledge about Coronavirus, it's effects, spread, symptoms, and mortality rate has improved massively since the start of the year.  Nobody is making 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic comparisons now like they were even three-four months ago.  On the whole you can see the amount of fear dropping in the general populace as people are tending to become more comfortable with going out in public.  Even the news media doesn't pick up Virus stories as much and the economy (namely the stock market) has begun to rebound.

Including even the most basic threshold of knowing he exists. Part of why covid was able to blow up so bad in places like New York is that the virus had entered the local population and begun spreading for... at least a month before we really figured out that anything out of the ordinary was amiss.

February 2020, people would do things like go to work or go hang out with their friends while coughing but otherwise feeling fine, figuring "eh it's just a little cough". And even if the idea that it might be covid crossed their mind, they wouldn't have been able to get tested to confirm this since testing capacity just wasn't there.

Now that we're aware of the bogeyman and have the ability to identify his presence, that coughing person will now - if they have any sense - stay away from others and go get tested. Thus reducing their ability to spread the virus if they in fact have it.

This topic fascinates me.  Flu pandemics seem to happen in waves.  I would love to know why. 

Influenza's transmissibility has a strong seasonal variation. Exactly why it has a strong seasonal variation is complex and not fully understood, but it does have the effect of making influenza pandemics die out in the summer only to return in the fall. What's actually happening in the summer though isn't that the virus is gone - only that since it is more difficult to transmit, fewer people catch it and those that do have less severe cases of it.

There is reason to believe that covid's transmissibility may also vary seasonally, but we won't have any confirmation of if this is true until fall.


Beyond the seasonal aspect, though, there's the simple reality that the human population is not a big well-mixed group that a virus can spread steadily throughout. Instead, people have relatively fixed small groups others which they regularly spend time around. Once one person in such a group becomes infected, it can rapidly spread to others in the group, but it will lose momentum once it's infected everyone in the group. It then requires one of those people to spread it to someone outside the group in order to keep going. Some groups of people overlap more than others, so the aggregate impact of this is that a virus can spread a bunch among overlapping groups, but then slow down and hit resistance when continuing to spread means it has to jump between two people who don't normally spend much time around each other.

[bandit957]

Well...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html

So we just locked ourselves at home and wore masks to Kroger for 3 months for nothing?

[Brandon]

Well...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html

So we just locked ourselves at home and wore masks to Kroger for 3 months for nothing?

Kind of what I thought from the beginning.

From the article:

"From the data we have, it still seems to be rare that an asymptomatic person actually transmits onward to a secondary individual,"  Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, head of WHO's emerging diseases and zoonosis unit, said at a news briefing from the United Nations agency's Geneva headquarters. "It's very rare."

"We have a number of reports from countries who are doing very detailed contact tracing,"  she said. "They're following asymptomatic cases. They're following contacts. And they're not finding secondary transmission onward. It's very rare."

If asymptomatic spread proves to not be a main driver of coronavirus transmission, the policy implications could be tremendous. A report from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention published on April 1 cited the "potential for presymptomatic transmission"  as a reason for the importance of social distancing.

[Rothman]

Well...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html

So we just locked ourselves at home and wore masks to Kroger for 3 months for nothing?

No.  It's called being careful until science figures it out.

[bandit957]

Well...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html

So we just locked ourselves at home and wore masks to Kroger for 3 months for nothing?

No.  It's called being careful until science figures it out.

It sounds to me like they just figured it out.