PREDICTIONS: Things We Will Miss On The Highways in 25 Years.

[mgk920]

I'll likely miss seeing I-70 directly connect with the PATurnpike at Breezewood.



Mike

[Takumi]

In 25 yearsToday, cars will all look 99% the same (other than supercars),

FTFY 

Not quite there yet, especially with all the older cars on the road that will gradually fall to attrition by then. New cars, for the most part, do all look similar, although there are a few outliers (most of Ford's current lineup, for example, stands out to me).

[bugo]

GPS has a LONG way to go before it is reliable enough to replace road signs.  The GPS on my phone is often very inaccurate.  It might be there in 25 years, but it is far from here now.

Self-driving cars won't be commonplace in anywhere close to 25 years. 

[Alps]

In 25 yearsToday, cars will all look 99% the same (other than supercars),

FTFY 

Not quite there yet, especially with all the older cars on the road that will gradually fall to attrition by then. New cars, for the most part, do all look similar, although there are a few outliers (most of Ford's current lineup, for example, stands out to me).

Everyone says this every generation. To me, all the cars of the 1950s look alike, and especially before the 1940s. Modern cars do look alike to some degree, but there is a lot of corporate branding - you may not know WHICH Ford or BMW you're seeing, but you know it's from that brand because of the look.

[wxfree]

In 25 yearsToday, cars will all look 99% the same (other than supercars),

FTFY 

Not quite there yet, especially with all the older cars on the road that will gradually fall to attrition by then. New cars, for the most part, do all look similar, although there are a few outliers (most of Ford's current lineup, for example, stands out to me).

Everyone says this every generation. To me, all the cars of the 1950s look alike, and especially before the 1940s. Modern cars do look alike to some degree, but there is a lot of corporate branding - you may not know WHICH Ford or BMW you're seeing, but you know it's from that brand because of the look.

I remember reading about a study some time back, in which researchers were looking into why people seem to think that people of other races all look alike.  In this study, people were shown photographs of well-known celebrities, showing only the area around the nose.  White people identified white celebrities more often than black celebrities.  It seems that in this study, when shown such a photo of Tom Cruise, their minds think, "that's Tom Cruise's nose," and when shown such a photo of Will Smith, their minds think "that's a black nose."  The researchers believe that people tend to look at the generalizations of things that are less familiar, while they look at the distinctions of things that are more familiar, such as people of the same race as their families.

I wonder if something similar happens with cars.  When you're young and learning to identify cars, the cars you see all the time are different than the cars 20 years later, and the cars that are so old that there aren't many around.  While car shapes are more uniformly aerodynamic, which is a good thing, I wonder how much the perception of "individuality" relates more to the observer's familiarity or emotional preferences than to the objective similarities and distinctivenesses.

[SP Cook]

I do believe that the ability of the an ordinary middle class person to take a long inter-regional trip by an individually owned car will be severely restricted by a combination of confiscatory tolls, taxes (some to pay for things government shouldn't be doing, some simply because the green/selfish don't want OTHER people to live their lives in a different way than what THEY have decided is best) and a general lowering of the quality of life.  Interstates, and similar, will thus be the domain of trucks, locals and business travelers. 

GPS and self-driving cars, etc, will not happen.  GPS's main function is to get you lost. 

Cars will be what they will be what they are.  Designs come and go. 

I think billboards will be replaced as the car will already know your preferences and what is up ahead.

[NE2]

I won't miss all the wingnuts as they slowly die off.

[PHLBOS]

In 25 yearsToday, cars will all look 99% the same (other than supercars),

FTFY 

Not quite there yet, especially with all the older cars on the road that will gradually fall to attrition by then. New cars, for the most part, do all look similar, although there are a few outliers (most of Ford's current lineup, for example, stands out to me).

Everyone says this every generation. To me, all the cars of the 1950s look alike, and especially before the 1940s. Modern cars do look alike to some degree, but there is a lot of corporate branding - you may not know WHICH Ford or BMW you're seeing, but you know it's from that brand because of the look.

One big difference between cars back then and now is that cars changed their styling, even if ever so subtle, more frequently back then.  If one waited a couple years, production gap during WWII being an exception, the model they liked would have a different look than it did 2 years earlier.

Today, it's not uncommon to see a car model not change at all for 5, 7 and even 10 (in some instances) consecutive model years.  Even the previous-generation Toyota Corolla had a longer than usual production cycle; the 2014 replacement model was long overdue.

The reasoning for such, and import brands are not immune to this, is due to the overall increase of meeting various regulations (safety, emissions, fuel economy) now in place; eats up a sizeable portion of a vehicle's production budget that could have been used for additional tooling/retooling.

A generation or two of the above occuring helps contribute to more and more vehicles looking alike today even if the vehicle's 10+ years old.  The average age of a vehicle on the road today is about 11; twice as high as it was a generation ago.

[roadman65]

Ford went  back to their original design for the Mustang.  It now looks like it did in the 60's.  Then of course GM copied them with the Camaro and Chrysler did it with the Charger and went back as well.

[Zmapper]

How I see self driving cars developing:
1. Initial demonstration cars in limited numbers for the rich. Because of novelty, companies like Google will initially focus on "family" cars.
2. Technology will be expanded to fleets of trucks and buses, where vehicles have higher price tags, don't last as long as private cars, and economies of scale can be more easily exploited.
3. After the kinks are worked out and prices are reduced, self driving cars will then become progressively more affordable to lower classes, but a full nationwide fleet replacement will take a while because of the number of years some vehicles driven have been on the road.

[PHLBOS]

Ford went back to their original design for the Mustang.  It now looks like it did in the 60's.

True, but it will undergo a major style change (& a new platform) for 2015.  After 10 years, the S197 platformed Mustangs have run their course.     

Then of course GM copied them with the Camaro

Yes and no.  Yes, Chevy did revive the Camaro and used some styling cues from its '69 model on its current model; but I don't believe anyone would refer to the latter as retro.

Chrysler did it with the Charger and went back as well.

The Dodge Challenger coupe would've been a better example to mention; especially since the front end does not feature the same nose as other current Dodge models.  Plus, prior to 2005, no Charger was ever a 4-door sedan and some purists took some exception to naming a sedan after a model that was always a coupe.

[realjd]

How I see self driving cars developing:
1. Initial demonstration cars in limited numbers for the rich. Because of novelty, companies like Google will initially focus on "family" cars.
2. Technology will be expanded to fleets of trucks and buses, where vehicles have higher price tags, don't last as long as private cars, and economies of scale can be more easily exploited.
3. After the kinks are worked out and prices are reduced, self driving cars will then become progressively more affordable to lower classes, but a full nationwide fleet replacement will take a while because of the number of years some vehicles driven have been on the road.

I see it coming in slightly differently. Manufacturers are slowly bringing self-drive technologies to market. We're seeing them first with higher end cars like Mercedes but they're starting to trickle down. Things like parking assist and intelligent cruise control are now becoming common on mid-level cars. I even had a Chevy rental car recently with lane departure warnings. Meanwhile high end cars can currently park themselves, can automatically accelerate and brake in stop and go traffic, block lane changes if there's a car in your blind spot, and can even fully steer to maintain the center of a lane.

Self drive cars will come to fruition feature-by-feature, first in luxury cars then trickling down to mainstream vehicles.

Here's an article about Acura's new lane keeping system which actually self-drives the car down the center of the lane:
http://www.techhive.com/article/2056562/tested-lane-keeping-assist-system-steers-acura-ever-closer-to-self-driving-cars.html

[vdeane]

can automatically accelerate and brake in stop and go traffic

So now cars themselves are encouraging bad behavior.  In stop and go it's better to drive at a slow, constant speed rather than taking brief movements at a faster speed and stopping all the side.  If only more people drove manuals, people would understand that!

[Alps]

can automatically accelerate and brake in stop and go traffic

So now cars themselves are encouraging bad behavior.  In stop and go it's better to drive at a slow, constant speed rather than taking brief movements at a faster speed and stopping all the side.  If only more people drove manuals, people would understand that!

You're not from around here. Try that in NJ and you'll end up a mile behind the car you started off behind as car after car cuts into your "slow but steady" gap during one of the faster "movements."

[briantroutman]

In 25 yearsToday, cars will all look 99% the same (other than supercars),

FTFY 

"Cars used to be so unique."
"All cars look the same today."

Can we shoot this fallacy in the face for good?



With few exceptions, mainstream American cars have always looked similar. And not without good reason, either. In the halcyon days of Detroit's grip on consumer tastes, an automaker would be taking a big risk if their 1958 whatever didn't line up very very closely with its competition. What would you get if you deviated slightly from the standard? An Edsel. And apart from the horse collar grill in front, the Edsel's looks weren't that far removed from a '58 Pontiac or Dodge.

And since many Americans buy cars like they buy carpeting or drywall (by the square foot), the dimensions and volumes dictated by that styling also needed to be very similar. Competitors would be quick to trumpet that "the Plymouth has two fewer cubic feet of rear passenger room..." Even if no one over 4' 9" would ever sit in the back seat for the life of the car.

The cars that really did look different were oddballs like Studebakers and Hudsons–the Nash Metropolitan, Cord, and the Crosley. Many of which were derided then (and some even now) for daring to look different, and all from companies that have long since gone out of business.

[Laura]

I will certainly miss button copy.
I will miss being able to drive the speed limit or above. In 25 years the baby boomers will be between 75-95 years old and be clogging up the roads with their super slow driving.

[Stephane Dumas]

With few exceptions, mainstream American cars have always looked similar. And not without good reason, either. In the halcyon days of Detroit's grip on consumer tastes, an automaker would be taking a big risk if their 1958 whatever didn't line up very very closely with its competition. What would you get if you deviated slightly from the standard? An Edsel. And apart from the horse collar grill in front, the Edsel's looks weren't that far removed from a '58 Pontiac or Dodge.

And since many Americans buy cars like they buy carpeting or drywall (by the square foot), the dimensions and volumes dictated by that styling also needed to be very similar. Competitors would be quick to trumpet that "the Plymouth has two fewer cubic feet of rear passenger room..." Even if no one over 4' 9" would ever sit in the back seat for the life of the car.

The cars that really did look different were oddballs like Studebakers and Hudsons–the Nash Metropolitan, Cord, and the Crosley. Many of which were derided then (and some even now) for daring to look different, and all from companies that have long since gone out of business.

In the case of Cord, as well as Duesenberg and Auburn, they was badly hit by the Great Depression. 

The "Shoe box" 1949-51 Ford for the time looked more modern then the Plymouth of the same era and it helped Ford to regain the #2 spot from Chrysler in 1952. http://auto.howstuffworks.com/1949-ford.htm

Then in 1957, Chrysler tried to stun the design with the Forward look for all its line-up, Dodge, DeSoto, Plymouth, Chrysler and Imperial. It forced GM to redraw the planned 1959 models who was originally scheduled to be restuffed and overchromed 1958.
http://blog.hemmings.com/index.php/2012/07/15/sia-flashback-gms-far-out-59s-when-imagination-ran-rampant-part-i/
http://blog.hemmings.com/index.php/2012/07/22/sia-flashback-gms-far-out-59s-when-imagination-ran-rampant-part-ii/#.UAygHYYp8Jo.blogger

Once you check car websites like Curbside Classic, Hemmings Blog, Hooniverse, etc... you'll became addicted to some good old car articles.

Here a commercial of the 1957 Plymouth

[Urban Prairie Schooner]

In 25 yearsToday, cars will all look 99% the same (other than supercars),

FTFY 

"Cars used to be so unique."
"All cars look the same today."

Can we shoot this fallacy in the face for good?

Maybe it would be more correct to say, "All cars made in a similar era look the same/similar."

In any case, here are my predictions for 25 years hence:

- Average cost of gasoline per gallon (if hydrocarbons are still in use by then): $4.50, utilizing the average rate of inflation from the 1987-2012 period, extrapolated forward in time (all bets are off if hyperinflation should intervene).
- All billboards will be digital/changeable, perhaps tailored to individual drivers' preferences (like Internet ads)
- Car sharing much more common; this holds even more true if energy costs skyrocket.
- I see a leveling off/slower growth of VMT as the population ages and the younger generations exercise a general preference for living in closer proximity to workplaces and services. Annual VMT has already been in decline since 2008.
- If self driving cars should become common, would most road signage be necessary? I can see signage existing in some bare bones sense for the passenger to know where he/she is.
- Of course, this assumes the government doesn't impose some form of restrictions on personal travel for (stated) purposes of energy conservation/environmental protection, especially if fuel costs soar. (We take it for granted that we are able to essentially move around the country freely. In countries of a more totalitarian bent, this is not so true.)

[Scott5114]

We will always need signs, even if self-driving cars happen, just in case something happens like your car battery dies. How will you tell people where you are when you call for help? (What if the road is new and it's not on GPS?)

[Urban Prairie Schooner]

We will always need signs, even if self-driving cars happen, just in case something happens like your car battery dies. How will you tell people where you are when you call for help? (What if the road is new and it's not on GPS?)

I hope so. Signage is half the fun of this hobby.

Though would things like, say, stop signs, warning signs, and speed limit signs be necessary? The road network could be programmed into one master GPS, with realtime road conditions and restrictions being fed to the driver/computer at all times. This is definitely a doable prospect in jurisdictions which have good GIS data at hand.

Of course, the quality of the data is key. Bad data would be the Achilles heel of such a system.

In any case, appropriate signage should remain for those drivers who prefer to drive themselves (assuming that would be allowed alongside self-driving cars) and for emergency situations.

[DaBigE]

(What if the road is new and it's not on GPS?)

Placing new roads or realigned roads into GPS should be part of every road contract by then. Not sure why it isn't already, especially with GPS guided construction equipment becoming more common.

[NE2]

Placing new roads or realigned roads into GPS should be part of every road contract by then. Not sure why it isn't already, especially with GPS guided construction equipment becoming more common.

And one can only use Official Government Approved Maps. Hello, China!

[mgk920]

(What if the road is new and it's not on GPS?)

Placing new roads or realigned roads into GPS should be part of every road contract by then. Not sure why it isn't already, especially with GPS guided construction equipment becoming more common.

The thing is that GPS is a passive system where a receiver uses the timing differences between several beacon satellites of known position to determine a position on the ground.  The satellites continually transmit their positions and their high-precision timing signals.  Signals from three satellites are needed to accurately determine long/lat position and a fourth is needed to determine altitude.  IIRC, the USA military's GPS satellite constellation (what consumer-grade GPS receivers use) has 24 active satellites that all orbit the Earth about twice per day.

How precise are their timing signals?  The atomic clocks on each are believed to be the second most accurate clocks in existence and they have to be adjusted to account for Einstein's general theory of relativity - time (and clocks) runs more slowly as gravitational fields strengthen, stopping entirely at the event horizons of black holes, and the relativistic difference in the strength of earth's gravitational field between the surface and the orbital levels of the satellites is enough that GPS would not work without that adjustment.

All of that snazzy (and sometimes notoriously inaccurate!) map programming, etc, is done by the manufacturers of the receivers.

Mike

[sammi]

When people talk about "GPS", they're referring to GPS receivers. I sometimes wonder how someone could possibly install 24^{[citation needed]} satellites in their car, or something like that, then I realize "oh, you meant GPS receiver."

[1995hoo]

My gut tells me that except for those of us who maintain our cars forever, manual transmissions will be missed.