NFL (2020-2024)

[DenverBrian]

OK, off topic, but: I wonder how many 20-somethings have any comprehension of the phrase "stay tuned."

[jakeroot]

OK, off topic, but: I wonder how many 20-somethings have any comprehension of the phrase "stay tuned."

Un/fortunately, we're not that dumb

[webny99]

As ridiculous as it is I don't know if I've ever been prouder of a Vikings effort in today's win over the Falcons. A long and emotional week, going on the road to a decent but not great Falcons team that is right in the thick of its dividion race and had a lot to play for today. We lost 4 key players to injuries over the weekend. Dobbs who has been here less than a week is forced to play basically a full game and understandably he was awful on his first 2-3 drives. We had to play from behind most of the game, and then it looked like the Falcons had made the knockout blow late before Dobbs somehow, some way, made some unbelievable plays to pull out the win.

Absolutely, a great moment that will be forever etched in Vikings history, especially if they go on to make the playoffs. And at this point, it's very realistic. They've got the tiebreaker over the Falcons, and the Commanders are the only other team with a decent shot and just traded away two of their best players.

[webny99]

The Bills wouldn't even be sniffing the top 10 if not for weeks 2-4. Part of it is a bunch of major injuries on defense, but that can't be used as an excuse. They've looked exceedingly average, sometimes closer to bad, for weeks on end. And I'd be OK with just accepting that they're average and just enjoying each week as a new adventure, if expectations weren't so high. The 2019 and 2020 Bills were fun. Falling short of expectations for the third straight year is just wearing.. and I say that as a casual observer. I can't even imagine what it's like for the team, and if it continues there will be some well-deserved questions surrounding this coaching staff. I saw a comment somewhere that McDermott is the type of coach that could take the 2017 Bills to the wild card round... but also take the 2023 Bills to the wild card round. I thought that was well-put. He may have just maxed out his potential as an NFL head coach, and that's unfortunately not enough.

Also worth noting: The Bills are now in the unenviable position of next Monday's showdown vs. the Broncos being a must-win game... and I don't say that the least bit jokingly. If they fall to 5-5, their season is over, and I will be forking them right then and there. The fact that they've only stacked five wins through the "easy" part of their schedule is bad enough; one peek at their remaining schedule is downright dizzying:

Week 11: vs Jets
Week 12: at Eagles
Week 14: at Chiefs
Week 15: vs Cowboys
Week 16: at Chargers
Week 17: vs Patriots
Week 18: at Dolphins

That's a playoff gauntlet. I have zero doubt that was intentional on the part of the NFL's schedule makers - and that's great for late-season drama, but they weren't accounting for the Bills' struggles this season. After the Broncos, the Patriots are the only team left on the schedule where they're definitely a better team, and they've already proved they can lose to them, too. Interestingly, the Bills are undefeated at home this season, and at Washington is their only road win. Now, with only four home games remaining, they will have to win on the road against a contender (Philly, Kansas City, or Miami) - and possibly multiple of those games - to make the playoffs. And that's assuming they hold serve at home against some tough opponents and beat the Chargers at SoFi.

So, when you consider all of that, maybe it's not too surprising that the NYT playoff calculator gives them just a 47% chance to make the playoffs: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/upshot/nfl-playoff-picture.html

[Alps]

The Bills wouldn't even be sniffing the top 10 if not for weeks 2-4. Part of it is a bunch of major injuries on defense, but that can't be used as an excuse. They've looked exceedingly average, sometimes closer to bad, for weeks on end. And I'd be OK with just accepting that they're average and just enjoying each week as a new adventure, if expectations weren't so high. The 2019 and 2020 Bills were fun. Falling short of expectations for the third straight year is just wearing.. and I say that as a casual observer. I can't even imagine what it's like for the team, and if it continues there will be some well-deserved questions surrounding this coaching staff. I saw a comment somewhere that McDermott is the type of coach that could take the 2017 Bills to the wild card round... but also take the 2023 Bills to the wild card round. I thought that was well-put. He may have just maxed out his potential as an NFL head coach, and that's unfortunately not enough.

Also worth noting: The Bills are now in the unenviable position of next Monday's showdown vs. the Broncos being a must-win game... and I don't say that the least bit jokingly. If they fall to 5-5, their season is over, and I will be forking them right then and there. The fact that they've only stacked five wins through the "easy" part of their schedule is bad enough; one peek at their remaining schedule is downright dizzying:

Week 11: vs Jets
Week 12: at Eagles
Week 14: at Chiefs
Week 15: vs Cowboys
Week 16: at Chargers
Week 17: vs Patriots
Week 18: at Dolphins

That's a playoff gauntlet. I have zero doubt that was intentional on the part of the NFL's schedule makers - and that's great for late-season drama, but they weren't accounting for the Bills' struggles this season. After the Broncos, the Patriots are the only team left on the schedule where they're definitely a better team, and they've already proved they can lose to them, too. Interestingly, the Bills are undefeated at home this season, and at Washington is their only road win. Now, with only four home games remaining, they will have to win on the road against a contender (Philly, Kansas City, or Miami) - and possibly multiple of those games - to make the playoffs. And that's assuming they hold serve at home against some tough opponents and beat the Chargers at SoFi.

So, when you consider all of that, maybe it's not too surprising that the NYT playoff calculator gives them just a 47% chance to make the playoffs: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/upshot/nfl-playoff-picture.html

Bills >>>>>> Jets

[Alps]

Well, I'm not happy that the Steelers have a better record than the Bills at midseason, but this insane stat at least gives me a micron of solace: https://twitter.com/LedyardNFLDraft/status/1721300185156903292

Pittsburgh's 5-3 record is a joke. Here are the total offensive yardage numbers for each team in Steelers games this season:

Texans (vs. Steelers) - 451
Browns - 408
49ers - 391
Jaguars - 377
Raiders - 362
Rams - 354
Titans - 340
Ravens - 335
Steelers - 333
Steelers - 326
Steelers - 300
Steelers - 289
Steelers - 261
Steelers - 255
Steelers - 239
Steelers - 225

Not only have they been outgained every single time, their highest yardage total of the season is lower than their opponents' lowest yardage total against them. It's one thing to win games with a good defense carrying a bad offense, but I don't think their defense is even that good. The whole team stinks. This cannot continue for the rest of the year.

this is fascinating. thank you for compiling.

[thspfc]

The Bills wouldn't even be sniffing the top 10 if not for weeks 2-4. Part of it is a bunch of major injuries on defense, but that can't be used as an excuse. They've looked exceedingly average, sometimes closer to bad, for weeks on end. And I'd be OK with just accepting that they're average and just enjoying each week as a new adventure, if expectations weren't so high. The 2019 and 2020 Bills were fun. Falling short of expectations for the third straight year is just wearing.. and I say that as a casual observer. I can't even imagine what it's like for the team, and if it continues there will be some well-deserved questions surrounding this coaching staff. I saw a comment somewhere that McDermott is the type of coach that could take the 2017 Bills to the wild card round... but also take the 2023 Bills to the wild card round. I thought that was well-put. He may have just maxed out his potential as an NFL head coach, and that's unfortunately not enough.

Also worth noting: The Bills are now in the unenviable position of next Monday's showdown vs. the Broncos being a must-win game... and I don't say that the least bit jokingly. If they fall to 5-5, their season is over, and I will be forking them right then and there. The fact that they've only stacked five wins through the "easy" part of their schedule is bad enough; one peek at their remaining schedule is downright dizzying:

Week 11: vs Jets
Week 12: at Eagles
Week 14: at Chiefs
Week 15: vs Cowboys
Week 16: at Chargers
Week 17: vs Patriots
Week 18: at Dolphins

That's a playoff gauntlet. I have zero doubt that was intentional on the part of the NFL's schedule makers - and that's great for late-season drama, but they weren't accounting for the Bills' struggles this season. After the Broncos, the Patriots are the only team left on the schedule where they're definitely a better team, and they've already proved they can lose to them, too. Interestingly, the Bills are undefeated at home this season, and at Washington is their only road win. Now, with only four home games remaining, they will have to win on the road against a contender (Philly, Kansas City, or Miami) - and possibly multiple of those games - to make the playoffs. And that's assuming they hold serve at home against some tough opponents and beat the Chargers at SoFi.

So, when you consider all of that, maybe it's not too surprising that the NYT playoff calculator gives them just a 47% chance to make the playoffs: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/upshot/nfl-playoff-picture.html

I think they'll get to 10-7. For sure wins over the Broncos, Jets, and Patriots. Yes, they already lost to the Jets and Pats, but in the McDermott era, excluding Brady's Patriots, they're 6-0 when facing a divisional opponent they previously lost to that season.

With their backs against the wall, they'll win at least two of those other five - Cowboys and Chargers if I had to bet, and they'd certainly have good chances against the Dolphins but we have no idea what week 18 will look like. Not to mention, they've won in Kansas City two years in a row in the regular season, and three times in a row if you go back to the beginning of McDermott's tenure.

They were in a similar spot later in the season two years ago, right on the cut line in a crowded playoff picture at 7-6 after two soul-crushing losses. Granted, they had a much easier remaining schedule then. I agree that if they lose in week 10 they're in big trouble. And if they miss the playoffs people will get fired.

[webny99]

With their backs against the wall, they'll win at least two of those other five - Cowboys and Chargers if I had to bet, and they'd certainly have good chances against the Dolphins but we have no idea what week 18 will look like.

It's way too early, but I would sign up for Bills-Dolphins Week 18 to decide the AFC East. It's been a while since the AFC East race was this interesting, especially if the Jets win tonight.

Not to mention, they've won in Kansas City two years in a row in the regular season, and three times in a row if you go back to the beginning of McDermott's tenure.

It would be nice if that game was in Buffalo for a change. A Tuesday afternoon covid-era game with no fans is the only time Mahomes has played in Buffalo in his career. And it's probably not happening in the playoffs this season either.

[webny99]

Bills >>>>>> Jets

Agreed on the whole, but it's been a tough matchup lately and I don't trust these Bills to make anything easy.

[thspfc]

Panthers
Colts
Ravens
Steelers
49ers
Saints
Bengals
Buccaneers
Chargers
Falcons
Cowboys
Seahawks
Jets
Bills

[epzik8]

Tonight's game is a perfect example of why the NFL voted to make Thursday night games flexible.

[NWI_Irish96]

Tonight's game is a perfect example of why the NFL voted to make Thursday night games flexible.

I predict that the Bears will improve their draft position, and also make it worse.

[Alps]

Tonight's game is a perfect example of why the NFL voted to make Thursday night games flexible.

Like it or not, Giants-Jets is still worse than Panthers-Bears.

[Hunty2022]

I'm forking the Patriots, I don't know why I didn't do it earlier in the season.

[Henry]

I'm forking the Patriots, I don't know why I didn't do it earlier in the season.

Looks like the dynasty is finally dead.

After the latest loss to my Bears, it also looks like the Panthers will be playing for the top overall draft pick again.

[Big John]

I'm forking the Patriots, I don't know why I didn't do it earlier in the season.

Looks like the dynasty is finally dead.

After the latest loss to my Bears, it also looks like the Panthers will be playing for the top overall draft pick again.

in which the Bears own.

[TheHighwayMan3561]

As ridiculous as it is I don't know if I've ever been prouder of a Vikings effort in today's win over the Falcons. A long and emotional week, going on the road to a decent but not great Falcons team that is right in the thick of its dividion race and had a lot to play for today. We lost 4 key players to injuries over the weekend. Dobbs who has been here less than a week is forced to play basically a full game and understandably he was awful on his first 2-3 drives. We had to play from behind most of the game, and then it looked like the Falcons had made the knockout blow late before Dobbs somehow, some way, made some unbelievable plays to pull out the win.

Absolutely, a great moment that will be forever etched in Vikings history, especially if they go on to make the playoffs. And at this point, it's very realistic. They've got the tiebreaker over the Falcons, and the Commanders are the only other team with a decent shot and just traded away two of their best players.

Beating the Saints would be nice insurance since then the Vikings would have tiebreakers over both Atlanta and New Orleans regardless of which of those two teams doesn't win the NFC South.

As for Washington (whom Minnesota does not play), Vikings already have a healthy lead in coference record over them if it comes to that, so I hope that holds out. Commanders have a brutal remaining schedule with both Dallas games, Seattle, Miami, and the 49ers.

[Hunty2022]

I'll also fork the Rams and the Titans.

The Falcons and Commanders are on my watchlist for forking.

[TheHighwayMan3561]

Some rumors out there that Famous Jameis is headed to the Vikings.

Glad the Vikings did not make this trade after he threw two ugly picks in the 4th quarter of today's Saints loss to Minnesota. We got the full Jameis experience just in two quarters today - two amazing TD passes, but two backbreaking interceptions.

[JayhawkCO]

Some rumors out there that Famous Jameis is headed to the Vikings.

Glad the Vikings did not make this trade after he threw two ugly picks in the 4th quarter of today's Saints loss to Minnesota. We got the full Jameis experience just in two quarters today - two amazing TD passes, but two backbreaking interceptions.

Agreed. And Dobbs has been great.

I'll fork the Chargers, Falcons, Rams, and Titans.

[NWI_Irish96]

The three games so far this weekend that had exclusive national windows featured exactly one offensive touchdown in each game, and only two of the six teams reaching 300 yards in total offense.

[webny99]

As ridiculous as it is I don't know if I've ever been prouder of a Vikings effort in today's win over the Falcons. A long and emotional week, going on the road to a decent but not great Falcons team that is right in the thick of its dividion race and had a lot to play for today. We lost 4 key players to injuries over the weekend. Dobbs who has been here less than a week is forced to play basically a full game and understandably he was awful on his first 2-3 drives. We had to play from behind most of the game, and then it looked like the Falcons had made the knockout blow late before Dobbs somehow, some way, made some unbelievable plays to pull out the win.

Absolutely, a great moment that will be forever etched in Vikings history, especially if they go on to make the playoffs. And at this point, it's very realistic. They've got the tiebreaker over the Falcons, and the Commanders are the only other team with a decent shot and just traded away two of their best players.

Beating the Saints would be nice insurance since then the Vikings would have tiebreakers over both Atlanta and New Orleans regardless of which of those two teams doesn't win the NFC South.

As for Washington (whom Minnesota does not play), Vikings already have a healthy lead in coference record over them if it comes to that, so I hope that holds out. Commanders have a brutal remaining schedule with both Dallas games, Seattle, Miami, and the 49ers.

At this point, the Vikings are the easy favorite to be the #7 seed in the NFC and no one else even looks like a legitimate candidate. The division is probably out of reach, but even so, it seems more likely that they could snag the #5 or #6 seed than it is that they'd miss out entirely. And they would be a fun, entertaining entry especially if Dobbs continues to play well.

[NWI_Irish96]

Forks: Patriots, Colts, Texans, Raiders, Commanders, Packers, Bucs, Cardinals

Add Bears, Broncos, Panthers, Giants

Add Titans, Jets, Giants, Rams

[Buck87]

Yesterday the Browns became the first team in this millennium to win a game after having trailed for 59 minutes and 20 seconds

[JayhawkCO]

Forks: Patriots, Colts, Texans, Raiders, Commanders, Packers, Bucs, Cardinals

Add Bears, Broncos, Panthers, Giants

Add Titans, Jets, Giants, Rams

The Giants so bad you're forking them twice?