Tropical cyclone tracking thread

[DriverDave]

It made landfall as a Cat 5, didn't just reach it and drop back down like the other storms this year.

[snowc]

First storm of the season formed!
Alberto is coming!

WTNT31 KNHC 172048
TCPAT1
 
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012024
400 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024
 
...LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EXPECTED TO BRING
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TO PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE COAST OF TEXAS AND
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 93.2W
ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Texas coast from
Port O'Connor southward to the mouth of the Rio Grande.
 
The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio Grande
to Boca de Catan.
 
Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Texas and northeastern
Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.  Additional
watches and warnings may be required tonight and on Tuesday.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Texas coast from Port O'Connor southward to the mouth of the
Rio Grande
* The northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio
Grande to Boca de Catan.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
20.3 North, longitude 93.2 West. The system is moving toward the
north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general motion is
expected to continue through Tuesday.  A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected Tuesday night or Wednesday, and system
is likely to approach the western Gulf coast late Wednesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is possible, and the disturbance is
forecast to become a tropical storm by Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
 
The disturbance is quite large with tropical-storm-force winds
extending outward up to 290 miles (465 km) to the northeast of the
center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to
produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico
into South Texas, with maximum totals of 15 inches possible.  This
rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding along with
new and renewed river flooding.  Mudslides are also possible in
areas of higher terrain across northeast Mexico.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the
National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...2-4 ft
Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX...1-3 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...1-3 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
 
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

In Mexico, minor coastal flooding is possible north of where the
center of the disturbance crosses the coast in areas of onshore
winds.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Wednesday.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

[snowc]

First storm of the season formed!
Alberto is coming!

WTNT31 KNHC 172048
TCPAT1
 
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012024
400 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024
 
...LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EXPECTED TO BRING
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TO PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE COAST OF TEXAS AND
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 93.2W
ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Texas coast from
Port O'Connor southward to the mouth of the Rio Grande.
 
The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio Grande
to Boca de Catan.
 
Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Texas and northeastern
Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.  Additional
watches and warnings may be required tonight and on Tuesday.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Texas coast from Port O'Connor southward to the mouth of the
Rio Grande
* The northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio
Grande to Boca de Catan.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
20.3 North, longitude 93.2 West. The system is moving toward the
north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general motion is
expected to continue through Tuesday.  A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected Tuesday night or Wednesday, and system
is likely to approach the western Gulf coast late Wednesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is possible, and the disturbance is
forecast to become a tropical storm by Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
 
The disturbance is quite large with tropical-storm-force winds
extending outward up to 290 miles (465 km) to the northeast of the
center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to
produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico
into South Texas, with maximum totals of 15 inches possible.  This
rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding along with
new and renewed river flooding.  Mudslides are also possible in
areas of higher terrain across northeast Mexico.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the
National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...2-4 ft
Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX...1-3 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...1-3 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
 
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

In Mexico, minor coastal flooding is possible north of where the
center of the disturbance crosses the coast in areas of onshore
winds.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Wednesday.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

New image hot off the press for Alberto. Looks like a very close hit for TX members like @ZLoth or @CoreySamson or @jgb191 ?

[epzik8]

First storm of the season formed!
Alberto is coming!

At long last. Now I presume things will heat up fast.

[CoreySamson]

Not a problem at all here near Houston. The worst problem from this could be flash flooding somewhat similar to what Florida had last week, but I'm not too concerned. Locally we're forecast to get something in the ballpark of 7-8 inches over the next week. The high temperatures this week are going to be down in the low 80s, which is nice.

[ZLoth]

New image hot off the press for Alberto. Looks like a very close hit for TX members like @ZLoth or @CoreySamson or @jgb191 ?

Negative, Ghost Rider. The hit path is south of Houston. I'm a few hundred miles north in Dallas.

[snowc]

New image hot off the press for Alberto. Looks like a very close hit for TX members like @ZLoth or @CoreySamson or @jgb191 ?

Negative, Ghost Rider. The hit path is south of Houston. I'm a few hundred miles north in Dallas.

Good! Looks like you will be safe after all.

[NWI_Irish96]

Not a problem at all here near Houston. The worst problem from this could be flash flooding somewhat similar to what Florida had last week, but I'm not too concerned. Locally we're forecast to get something in the ballpark of 7-8 inches over the next week. The high temperatures this week are going to be down in the low 80s, which is nice.

I'm flying in/out of Hobby over Labor Day weekend so I'm hoping for no tropical activity then.

[jgb191]

New image hot off the press for Alberto. Looks like a very close hit for TX members like @ZLoth or @CoreySamson or @jgb191 ?

Looks like we're the closest to it, and in fact a TS Watch has been administered up to N. Padre Island, but even so Corpus Christi is at least a couple hundred miles (probably more) out of the prime target landfall, which looks to be somewhere near Tampico, Mexico.  We will get some much-needed rain and some welcome break from the heat.  Even Brownsville (the closest US city to the impact area) will be over a hundred miles north.

[Scott5114]

Mexico has been experiencing a drought, which was bad enough there I've seen talk of Mexico City running out of water. Hopefully this will provide some relief.

[snowc]

Beryl has formed! Gonna hit Mexico!

[snowc]

Beryl has formed! Gonna hit Mexico!

Update: Looks like its our FIRST MAJOR hurricane! 

[Road Hog]

I'm more worried about what it does after it scrapes past Cancun. This has my undivided attention — and it's awful early in the season for that.

[CoreySamson]

I'm more worried about what it does after it scrapes past Cancun. This has my undivided attention — and it's awful early in the season for that.

Yeah this has my attention as well. I've seen a couple model runs that bring a Cat 1-2 hurricane directly into SE Texas. I wouldn't be surprised if Beryl becomes a problem for us.

[epzik8]

I'm more worried about what it does after it scrapes past Cancun. This has my undivided attention — and it's awful early in the season for that.

Makes me wonder if this is the point when the season will explode into hyperactivity like all of the agencies have been predicting.

[vdeane]

Beryl has formed! Gonna hit Mexico!

Beryl?  Is this hurricane going to be defeated by Sailor Moon?

[kalvado]

I'm more worried about what it does after it scrapes past Cancun. This has my undivided attention — and it's awful early in the season for that.

Makes me wonder if this is the point when the season will explode into hyperactivity like all of the agencies have been predicting.

Active sun cycle can make things interesting, and we are at the peak...

[epzik8]

I'm more worried about what it does after it scrapes past Cancun. This has my undivided attention — and it's awful early in the season for that.

Makes me wonder if this is the point when the season will explode into hyperactivity like all of the agencies have been predicting.

Active sun cycle can make things interesting, and we are at the peak...

Now I need to look up sun cycles.

[jeffandnicole]

I'm more worried about what it does after it scrapes past Cancun. This has my undivided attention — and it's awful early in the season for that.

Being that Hurricane season began June 1, late June is pretty average for the first hurricane of the year.

[epzik8]

Everyone's talking about Beryl's potential impacts on Mexico and Texas, but when's the last time the Lesser Antilles were under the gun like this?

[PColumbus73]

Everyone's talking about Beryl's potential impacts on Mexico and Texas, but when's the last time the Lesser Antilles were under the gun like this?

Perhaps Hurricane Irma, 2017? Nearly everything on Barbuda was leveled when Irma came through. Beryl looks like it has a smaller diameter, so whichever island gets it is going to get it bad.

[snowc]

Chris has brewed! Small TS.

[Road Hog]

I'm more worried about what it does after it scrapes past Cancun. This has my undivided attention — and it's awful early in the season for that.

Being that Hurricane season began June 1, late June is pretty average for the first hurricane of the year.

Beryl is the earliest Cat 4 ever recorded. That's what I'm talking about.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/hurricane-beryl-has-become-very-dangerous-category-3-says-us-agency-2024-06-30/

[epzik8]

Chris has brewed! Small TS.

Now we're talking.

[jeffandnicole]

I'm more worried about what it does after it scrapes past Cancun. This has my undivided attention — and it's awful early in the season for that.

Being that Hurricane season began June 1, late June is pretty average for the first hurricane of the year.

Beryl is the earliest Cat 4 ever recorded. That's what I'm talking about.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/hurricane-beryl-has-become-very-dangerous-category-3-says-us-agency-2024-06-30/

The map I saw showed it was gonna be a Cat 2 before downgrading. So yeah, that went the opposite way!