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Author Topic: Tropical cyclone tracking thread  (Read 74362 times)

empirestate

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #725 on: October 17, 2020, 11:12:30 AM »

I think this is why Americans keep getting hung up with this pronunciation. Because English has extremely irregular pronunciation, and we therefore can't depend on an unknown native word to sound as it's spelled, we assume that's true when faced with foreign words, too. However, most European languages have very predictable pronunciation rules, Spanish in particular. Since that language is widely used in this country, just being aware that it's a Spanish name should lead to no trouble in pronouncing it.

You're making the invalid assumption that most Americans have some sense for how to pronounce Spanish words!

Not at all—had I made that assumption, I'd have written "will" instead of "should".
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route56

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #726 on: October 24, 2020, 09:59:19 PM »

We've managed to get up to 'Epsilon,' with a depression in the Carribian that will likely become 'Zeta' and possible dispatching of Jim Cantore to Louisiana.

I think the chances are good that we will get the first new greek letter storm with 'Eta,' and break 2005's tropical storm record with 'Theta.'
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #727 on: October 25, 2020, 07:36:35 PM »

TS Zeta now active, forecast to make landfall near New Orleans on Wednesday.
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ET21

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #728 on: October 28, 2020, 11:49:09 PM »

Eye went right over New Orleans this evening. Lots of damage being reported across SE Louisiana and southern Mississippi so far. Looks like it landfalled as a powerful cat 2 storm.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #729 on: October 29, 2020, 01:28:37 AM »

Eye went right over New Orleans this evening. Lots of damage being reported across SE Louisiana and southern Mississippi so far. Looks like it landfalled as a powerful cat 2 storm.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see it bumped up to cat 3 in post-analysis.

At any rate, this looks to be one of the most remarkable inland tropical-storm wind events we’ve seen in a long time. Tropical storm warnings extend northeast from the landfall point through Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia (including Atlanta, where I am), Tennessee, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia - all the way up to Lynchburg.

It is eerily calm here. Unless you looked at news or radar, you’d never guess a tropical storm was headed our way. Sure, it’s wet and sticky, but there is zero wind. That will change in a few hours.

CNGL-Leudimin

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #730 on: October 29, 2020, 04:56:02 AM »

Luckily there was that freaky subtropical storm that affected, of all forum members, me, and thus I won't dispute that there is still one for tying the record. Had α been tropical, I would have disputed that statment, since I don't recognize missed storms either and the 2005 Azores storm was both missed and subtropical. However if a named subtropical storm turns to have been fully tropical in the reanalysis I'll rescue it for my numbers, as happened with Alberto in 2018.
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jeffandnicole

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #731 on: October 29, 2020, 07:27:31 AM »

Eye went right over New Orleans this evening. Lots of damage being reported across SE Louisiana and southern Mississippi so far. Looks like it landfalled as a powerful cat 2 storm.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see it bumped up to cat 3 in post-analysis.

At any rate, this looks to be one of the most remarkable inland tropical-storm wind events we’ve seen in a long time. Tropical storm warnings extend northeast from the landfall point through Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia (including Atlanta, where I am), Tennessee, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia - all the way up to Lynchburg.

It is eerily calm here. Unless you looked at news or radar, you’d never guess a tropical storm was headed our way. Sure, it’s wet and sticky, but there is zero wind. That will change in a few hours.

Rain moved into New Jersey from Zeta overnight, and we should be getting a few inches of much needed rain today.  The early predictions were the rain would hit tomorrow (and of course parents immediately started to worry that it would become a 2 day rain event and ruin what's left of Halloween this year), so this gives everything a day to dry out before trick-or-treaters walk around on Saturday.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #732 on: October 29, 2020, 12:35:14 PM »

Got some pretty powerful wind gusts from Zeta here - WBTV was forecasting 62 mph for Union County. I had my power knocked out for a bit, Charlotte with its tree canopy seems to have fared worse with their power situation.
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route56

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #733 on: October 29, 2020, 01:54:37 PM »

Another disturbance is about to enter the Caribbean, NHC has it currently pegged with a 20 percent chance of formation within 2 days, 60 percent within 5 days.

Will Zeta go post-tropical before or after it re-enters the Atlantic off the Virginia coast?

EDIT: Nevermind, the NHC called it post-tropical at the 2 PM ET intermediate advisory.
« Last Edit: October 29, 2020, 01:57:14 PM by route56 »
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #734 on: October 30, 2020, 07:45:54 AM »

I've noticed there hasn't been a single category 5 typhoon so far.  It would be very weird if we end the year without one. This actually happened a few years ago... but after the fact, as operationally there was one that was downgraded in the post-season analysis.

Not happening anymore. Typhoon Goni (known in the Philippines as Rolly) is now a category 5 monster.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #735 on: October 30, 2020, 09:48:56 PM »

A day and a half later, and the current disturbance (I'm guessing it's an 'Invest' by now) is now pegged with an 80 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within 2 days, and 90 percent within 5 days. Chances of breaking out a greek letter for the first time (Eta) are now very high.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #736 on: October 30, 2020, 10:00:30 PM »

I've noticed there hasn't been a single category 5 typhoon so far.  It would be very weird if we end the year without one. This actually happened a few years ago... but after the fact, as operationally there was one that was downgraded in the post-season analysis.

Not happening anymore. Typhoon Goni (known in the Philippines as Rolly) is now a category 5 monster.
And 185 miles per hour too!
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route56

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #737 on: November 01, 2020, 01:55:45 AM »

Ask, and you shall receive.

5 PM ET tonight: That disturbance in the Caribbean is designated as TD 29.

11 PM ET:
Quote from: NHC
Based on these data, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Eta, the twenty-eighth named storm of the 2020 season.  This ties the record for storms set in the 2005 season and is the first time the name Eta has been used in the Atlantic basin.

Folks, we got a month to go in the official 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season, and another month of offseason before we can use 'Ana.'
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Scott5114

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #738 on: November 01, 2020, 03:43:04 AM »

I'm sort of sad the last storm didn't stick around long enough to merge with this one, as well as with the next one, to form Hurricane Zetaetatheta.
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CNGL-Leudimin

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #739 on: November 01, 2020, 05:43:19 AM »

Well, we have tied 2005. At least I spell Greek storms with the actual letters (this one is Tropical storm η), otherwise I would spell this storm in all-caps (ETA) and call this storm a terrorist.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #740 on: November 01, 2020, 08:02:50 AM »

Well, we have tied 2005. At least I spell Greek storms with the actual letters (this one is Tropical storm η), otherwise I would spell this storm in all-caps (ETA) and call this storm a terrorist.

I wonder what the Estimated Time of Arrival is for ETA?
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tdindy88

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #741 on: November 01, 2020, 08:11:10 AM »

I wonder what the Estimated Time of Arrival is for ETA?

12 noon on Tuesday for Central America :)
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #742 on: November 01, 2020, 01:25:27 PM »

I've noticed there hasn't been a single category 5 typhoon so far.  It would be very weird if we end the year without one. This actually happened a few years ago... but after the fact, as operationally there was one that was downgraded in the post-season analysis.

Not happening anymore. Typhoon Goni (known in the Philippines as Rolly) is now a category 5 monster.
And 185 miles per hour too!
Scratch that, it managed to get up to 195 - the strongest landfall ever observed.
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route56

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #743 on: November 02, 2020, 01:47:00 PM »

Eta must have hit the hot spot in the Caribean. It boomed from Tropical Storm to Catagory 3 overnight.

I wonder what the Estimated Time of Arrival is for ETA?

12 noon on Tuesday for Central America :)

Quote from: NHC Hurricane Eta advisory 8A, 1200 CST 11/2/20
LOCATION...14.7N 82.0W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ENE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
« Last Edit: November 02, 2020, 01:49:50 PM by route56 »
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #744 on: November 02, 2020, 05:19:10 PM »

The way the 2020 tropical season is going it wouldnt surprise me much if it ,made it back to the gulf & headed north. :-o
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Scott5114

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #745 on: November 05, 2020, 08:43:39 PM »

The way the 2020 tropical season is going it wouldnt surprise me much if it ,made it back to the gulf & headed north. :-o

In fact, that is what it seems to be doing.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #746 on: November 09, 2020, 09:00:25 PM »

We've got a system in the eastern Atlantic that now has an 80 percent chance of becoming "Theta" (or, at least, (sub-)tropical depression Thirty)
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #747 on: November 10, 2020, 07:50:11 AM »

"Subtropical Storm" Theta has formed. There’s also a cell south of Puerto Rico that could become Iota, although right now the immediate chances are low (cue puns).

My brother-in-law in Pembroke Pines said their garage flooded with four inches of water. They don’t park in the garage because they have so much junk crammed in there, but he said they had to move the cars from the driveway to some nearby grass that’s at a slightly higher elevation because the water in the driveway was getting close to tailpipe level.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #748 on: November 10, 2020, 04:39:14 PM »

Θ (uppercase since I start a sentence) is now fully tropical, and thus 2020 is now per my reckoning (a bit later than NHC's since as you know I don't recognize subtropical storms) the year in which more tropical storms have formed in the Atlantic. It is almost a hurricane as well, and is heading towards... me!
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #749 on: November 10, 2020, 04:51:47 PM »

Θ (uppercase since I start a sentence) is now fully tropical, and thus 2020 is now per my reckoning (a bit later than NHC's since as you know I don't recognize subtropical storms) the year in which more tropical storms have formed in the Atlantic. It is almost a hurricane as well, and is heading towards... me!

At what angle is theta approaching?
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