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Author Topic: Tropical cyclone tracking thread  (Read 71518 times)

CoreySamson

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #700 on: September 18, 2020, 08:33:06 PM »

Meanwhile, TD 22 is now TS Beta, and it is forecast to stall off the Texas coast for a while. I'm not liking the look of it. Reminds me a lot of Harvey (btw, some people in my area still aren't back in their homes from that event). Let's hope it's not like Harvey...
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #701 on: September 19, 2020, 07:55:15 AM »

I believe that retired Greek letters should be replaced with the equivalent Hebrew letters.

Side note: Why is G seventh in our alphabet instead of third?

EnglishGreekHebrewCyrillic
AAGlottal stop, but related to AA
BV, but B doesn't have its own letterB or V, depending on formB
CGGV
DVoiced th, related to D DG
EEAnother glottal, but related to ED
E (ye in some cases)

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #702 on: September 19, 2020, 08:52:47 AM »

What's been interesting thus far in the 2020 season is that, while it rivals 2005 for the number of storms, it is far behind in the overall power of the season.  Currently the accumulated cyclone energy is only about 84 units, well behind where it was in 2005 with a similar number of storms (250).  There have been two category 4s, only one of which severely affected land (Laura).  The other (Teddy) may hit land in Nova Scotia as a post-tropical storm or depression.  There's been two category 2s (Paulette and Sally), neither of which I see being retired.  Four category 1s, and 13 storms that never developed further.  There are two storms out there, one of which is expected to stay a storm, then dissipate, and the other could become a hurricane (but I cannot imagine it being around long due to the lack of distance between it and land).

2005, by comparison, had four category 5s, one category 4, two category 3s, one category 2, six category 1s, and 13 that were only storms.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #703 on: September 19, 2020, 01:06:40 PM »

What's been interesting thus far in the 2020 season is that, while it rivals 2005 for the number of storms, it is far behind in the overall power of the season.  Currently the accumulated cyclone energy is only about 84 units, well behind where it was in 2005 with a similar number of storms (250).  There have been two category 4s, only one of which severely affected land (Laura).  The other (Teddy) may hit land in Nova Scotia as a post-tropical storm or depression.  There's been two category 2s (Paulette and Sally), neither of which I see being retired.  Four category 1s, and 13 storms that never developed further.  There are two storms out there, one of which is expected to stay a storm, then dissipate, and the other could become a hurricane (but I cannot imagine it being around long due to the lack of distance between it and land).

2005, by comparison, had four category 5s, one category 4, two category 3s, one category 2, six category 1s, and 13 that were only storms.

My bet is Sally gets retired. The southeast got hit surprisingly hard - especially the Alabama coast and Florida panhandle, which weren't really expecting a direct hit from an intensifying category 2 until it was too late to evacuate (and there's probably a decent chance Sally gets upgraded to a category 3 in the post-storm analysis based on hurricane hunter and radar data). But most of the damage was from flooding thanks to its very slow approach to land. Pensacola had 24 inches of rain and their third-highest storm surge ever, while other nearby locations saw up to 36 inches. Damage totals are at least $5 billion.

Isaias will probably get the boot too. Either one would be the costliest Atlantic hurricane to not be retired.

I think it's silly to be talking about how low the season's ACE is right now, though - we still have climatologically a little less than half the season left. Sure, October typically doesn't have the long Cape Verde storms that track all the way across the ocean from Africa, but conditions are often favorable in the Gulf or western Caribbean for very intense storms (think Matthew, Michael, or Wilma).

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #704 on: September 21, 2020, 03:41:54 PM »

So it appears tropical storm β won't reach hurricane strength before hitting Texas. Now that is somewhat surprising.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #705 on: September 22, 2020, 01:42:39 AM »

Paulette has officially regenerated. Maybe we ought to check for time lord DNA?

I suppose the discussion on whether the system was a continuation was not as lengthy or as animated as Ivan of 2004 😎
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #706 on: September 23, 2020, 03:36:48 PM »

Funnily, when Ivan regenerated an extratropical cyclone over the North Atlantic was referred to as ex-Ivan by the FU Berlin (which has a long-standing tradition of naming highs and lows over Europe, thus resulting in most cyclones having two -or more- names now that meteorological agencies name them as well), thus giving two separate systems the same name. Now I've checked, at least they didn't name α with a real name before the NHC did so, it would have been funny otherwise.

Now the Atlantic has gone quiet. I hope there are no more storms, as there are no names available, but that won't happen. This doesn't mean it's all quiet, there are a couple storms elsewhere (TS Lowell in the Eastern Pacific, TS Dolphin in the Western).
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #707 on: September 24, 2020, 11:32:11 AM »

Funnily, when Ivan regenerated an extratropical cyclone over the North Atlantic was referred to as ex-Ivan by the FU Berlin (which has a long-standing tradition of naming highs and lows over Europe, thus resulting in most cyclones having two -or more- names now that meteorological agencies name them as well), thus giving two separate systems the same name. Now I've checked, at least they didn't name α with a real name before the NHC did so, it would have been funny otherwise.

AIUI, there are two lists of names, one used by the UK, Ireland, and the Netherlands; the other used by France, Spain, Portugal and Belgium, and that a storm named by one agency will be recipricated by the others. Also, post-tropical storms will keep their NHC-issued names.

IOW, there should be less chance of a storm affecting Europe having more than one alias :)
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #708 on: September 24, 2020, 01:34:28 PM »

Funnily, when Ivan regenerated an extratropical cyclone over the North Atlantic was referred to as ex-Ivan by the FU Berlin (which has a long-standing tradition of naming highs and lows over Europe, thus resulting in most cyclones having two -or more- names now that meteorological agencies name them as well), thus giving two separate systems the same name. Now I've checked, at least they didn't name α with a real name before the NHC did so, it would have been funny otherwise.

AIUI, there are two lists of names, one used by the UK, Ireland, and the Netherlands; the other used by France, Spain, Portugal and Belgium, and that a storm named by one agency will be recipricated by the others. Also, post-tropical storms will keep their NHC-issued names.

IOW, there should be less chance of a storm affecting Europe having more than one alias :)

Unless you get a tropical cyclone to form in the Mediterranean, like the one last week - which was known variously as Ianos, Janus, Udine, Cassilda, or Tulpar depending on what country you asked.

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #709 on: September 24, 2020, 03:30:47 PM »

I know Ianos came from Greece (with Janus being a variant), Udine from the FU Berlin and Cassilda from a group of enthusiasts (I believe they are Italian). I didn't knew about Tulpar, though.

I've noticed there hasn't been a single category 5 typhoon so far.  It would be very weird if we end the year without one. This actually happened a few years ago... but after the fact, as operationally there was one that was downgraded in the post-season analysis.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #710 on: October 02, 2020, 06:10:38 PM »

It took a week or so, but we have a new TD in the Atlantic, which will likely become "Gamma."
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #711 on: October 02, 2020, 09:11:12 PM »

It took a week or so, but we have a new TD in the Atlantic, which will likely become "Gamma."

And Gamma formed...

The other wave is still code yellow, but up to 40% for days 3 to 5.

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #712 on: October 03, 2020, 02:45:15 PM »

The other wave is still code yellow, but up to 40% for days 3 to 5.

There’s now two more code yellows, although they are below 20 percent for days 3-5.


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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #713 on: October 03, 2020, 07:06:38 PM »

The other wave is still code yellow, but up to 40% for days 3 to 5.

There’s now two more code yellows, although they are below 20 percent for days 3-5.


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Interestingly, the one in the central Atlantic is the remnant of Paulette - although it's unclear whether it has retained its identity enough over the last week to hold onto the name if it does develop.

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #714 on: October 06, 2020, 01:09:30 PM »

Delta quickly formed from nothing to become a Category 4 in less than 48 hours and is now threatening Louisiana.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #715 on: October 06, 2020, 02:09:50 PM »

Delta quickly formed from nothing to become a Category 4 in less than 48 hours and is now threatening Louisiana.

We’ll see what happens with Delta.  The storm’s path keeps tracking westward.  Yesterday, it was going over western Cuba.  Today, it’s the Yucatán.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #716 on: October 06, 2020, 03:56:32 PM »

Wow with hurricane δ. From nothing to a monster in a couple days. Now that is something.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #717 on: October 06, 2020, 04:17:35 PM »

Clearly, the only appropriate place for this storm to make landfall is the mouth of the Mississippi River.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #718 on: October 06, 2020, 04:39:26 PM »

Clearly, the only appropriate place for this storm to make landfall is the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Atlanta.  Anything named “Delta” always goes through Atlanta in the South.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #719 on: October 06, 2020, 06:51:11 PM »

Clearly, the only appropriate place for this storm to make landfall is the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Atlanta.  Anything named “Delta” always goes through Atlanta in the South.
yep, but that name originally belonged to a crop-dusting company in Mississippi Delta... They just abandoned the crop-dusting part of it.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #720 on: October 06, 2020, 11:07:12 PM »

Delta quickly formed from nothing to become a Category 4 in less than 48 hours and is now threatening Louisiana.

We’ll see what happens with Delta.  The storm’s path keeps tracking westward.  Yesterday, it was going over western Cuba.  Today, it’s the Yucatán.

The tracks seem to indicate a landfall in the general area Laura made landfall. Most of the spaghetti models are aimed at that area, with not much spread at all. Unless something changes in the morning, I'm not going to board up or evacuate.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #721 on: October 07, 2020, 01:27:57 AM »

Also, we've probably run out of Greek letters that most people have heard of or can recite from memory at this point. Kind of hope we get to Upsilon so everyone can be weirded out by it.

It'll probably get pretty confusing if Zeta, Eta, and Theta are all active at the same time.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #722 on: October 07, 2020, 10:06:55 AM »

Delta?

Dean Wormer: Greg, what is the worst fraternity on this campus?

Greg: Well that would be hard to say, sir. They're each outstanding in their own way.

Dean Wormer: Cut the horseshit, son. I've got their disciplinary files right here. Who dropped a whole truckload of fizzies into the swim meet? Who delivered the medical school cadavers to the alumni dinner? Every Halloween, the trees are filled with underwear. Every spring, the toilets explode.

Greg: You're talking about Delta, sir.

Dean Wormer: Of course I'm talking about Delta, you TWERP! This year is going to be different. This year we are going to grab the bull by the BALLS and kick those punks off campus.

Greg: What do you intend to do sir? Delta's already on probation.

Dean Wormer: They are?

Greg: Yes, sir.

Dean Wormer: Oh. Then as of this moment, they're on DOUBLE SECRET PROBATION!

Greg: Double Secret Probation, Sir?

Dean Wormer: There is a little-known codicil in the Faber College constitution which gives the dean unlimited power to preserve order in time of campus emergency. Find me a way to revoke Delta's charter. You live next door. Put Neidermeyer on it. He's a sneaky little shit, just like you, right? [Greg nods] The time has come for someone to put their foot down. And that foot is me.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #723 on: October 07, 2020, 07:42:08 PM »

Well, since the Atlantic seems to be churning out Tropical Cyclones ad nauseam, I have to wonder: Should a tropical cyclone form between 15Z and 21Z on December 31, but doesn't strengthen to a Tropical Storm strength until after the calendar turns over (which I presume would be at 00Z), would it get a Greek Letter name, or would it become 'Ana?'
« Last Edit: October 07, 2020, 07:46:29 PM by route56 »
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #724 on: October 07, 2020, 08:17:58 PM »

Well, since the Atlantic seems to be churning out Tropical Cyclones ad nauseam, I have to wonder: Should a tropical cyclone form between 15Z and 21Z on December 31, but doesn't strengthen to a Tropical Storm strength until after the calendar turns over (which I presume would be at 00Z), would it get a Greek Letter name, or would it become 'Ana?'
https://xkcd.com/1126/
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