AARoads Forum

Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
Advanced search  

News:

New rules for political content in signatures and user profiles. See this thread for details.

Author Topic: Tropical cyclone tracking thread  (Read 59246 times)

Hurricane Rex

  • *
  • Offline Offline

  • Posts: 1371
  • Speed 75 or bust. Keep on traveling.

  • Age: 19
  • Location: Sherwood Oregon (Dec, Jun-Sep), Corvallis, Oregon (Oct, Nov, Jan-May)
  • Last Login: February 28, 2020, 03:16:12 PM
Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #525 on: October 21, 2018, 09:38:06 PM »

Willa is now a Cat 4 in the EPAC. (We’ve had TEN now) could hit Cat 5
The forecast from the NHC isn't even updated yet. This isn't looking good. Good chance of hitting cat 5, but I don't think it will make landfall above a cat 3.

LG-TP260

Logged
ODOT, raise the speed limit and fix our traffic problems.

Road and weather geek for life.

Running till I die.

Hurricane Rex

  • *
  • Offline Offline

  • Posts: 1371
  • Speed 75 or bust. Keep on traveling.

  • Age: 19
  • Location: Sherwood Oregon (Dec, Jun-Sep), Corvallis, Oregon (Oct, Nov, Jan-May)
  • Last Login: February 28, 2020, 03:16:12 PM
Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #526 on: October 22, 2018, 01:44:47 AM »

Willia: 155 mph

LG-TP260

Logged
ODOT, raise the speed limit and fix our traffic problems.

Road and weather geek for life.

Running till I die.

Interstate 69 Fan

  • *
  • Offline Offline

  • Posts: 471
  • You cannot deny that I-69 will never be completed.

  • Age: 17
  • Location: Indianapolis, Indiana
  • Last Login: Today at 01:21:49 AM
Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #527 on: October 22, 2018, 09:18:41 AM »

Cat 5 now.
Logged
Apparently I’m a fan of I-69.  Who knew.

US 89

  • *
  • Offline Offline

  • Posts: 2578
  • 189 to Evanston!

  • Location: Salt Lake City/Atlanta
  • Last Login: Today at 11:02:24 AM
    • Utah Highways
Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #528 on: October 22, 2018, 10:15:43 AM »

Cat 5 now.

Where are you seeing this? The NHC website is still saying 155 mph for me. Although I think NHC should have upgraded it...
« Last Edit: October 22, 2018, 10:29:04 AM by US 89 »
Logged
Interstate clinches: 14 82 86ID 215UT 225 345 444 575 985
US clinches: 91 491 550

Flickr
Imgur
Website

Interstate 69 Fan

  • *
  • Offline Offline

  • Posts: 471
  • You cannot deny that I-69 will never be completed.

  • Age: 17
  • Location: Indianapolis, Indiana
  • Last Login: Today at 01:21:49 AM
Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #529 on: October 22, 2018, 10:34:03 AM »

Cat 5 now.

Where are you seeing this? The NHC website is still saying 155 mph for me. Although I think NHC should have upgraded it...
ATCF, or the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System.
If you want to see it, here’s the link: https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/sectors/atcf_sector_file

Note: You read it as follows - Internal Designation (XXL, L is for Atlantic, XX is numbers) Name, Date, Time (UTC), Location, Basin, Winds (in knots), and pressure.

NHC will likely up it momentarily.
Logged
Apparently I’m a fan of I-69.  Who knew.

WillWeaverRVA

  • *
  • Offline Offline

  • Posts: 1464
  • Age: 35
  • Location: Richmond, VA
  • Last Login: Today at 09:43:40 AM
    • WillWeaverRVA Photography
Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #530 on: October 22, 2018, 11:10:49 AM »

Willa is now a Cat 4 in the EPAC. (We’ve had TEN now) could hit Cat 5

It's a Category 5 now.
Logged
Will Weaver
WillWeaverRVA Photography | Twitter

"But how will the oxen know where to drown if we renumber the Oregon Trail?" - NE2

CNGL-Leudimin

  • *
  • Offline Offline

  • Posts: 2682
  • When in doubt, US 41

  • Age: 26
  • Location: Across the pond
  • Last Login: Today at 10:36:17 AM
Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #531 on: October 22, 2018, 04:39:29 PM »

Even the NHC has slipped and called it "Wilma" :sombrero::

Quote from: NHC's forecast discussion on hurricane Willa no. 10
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route to Wilma and should provide a better assessment of the storm's intensity by early this afternoon.
Logged
"Football", a quite ambiguous word for me. I assume "association" football instead of "American" football.

All times Eastern unless DST is in force only in the USA (Central in that case to preserve "6 hours behind my actual time") or otherwise noted

Hurricane Rex

  • *
  • Offline Offline

  • Posts: 1371
  • Speed 75 or bust. Keep on traveling.

  • Age: 19
  • Location: Sherwood Oregon (Dec, Jun-Sep), Corvallis, Oregon (Oct, Nov, Jan-May)
  • Last Login: February 28, 2020, 03:16:12 PM
Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #532 on: October 24, 2018, 02:36:10 AM »

Even the NHC has slipped and called it "Wilma" :sombrero::

Quote from: NHC's forecast discussion on hurricane Willa no. 10
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route to Wilma and should provide a better assessment of the storm's intensity by early this afternoon.

CBS radio news called Wilma. NEWSFLASH: Wilma is retired, learn to distinguish, especially the NHC.

That deescalated quickly. Willia went from 115 mph to 45 mph in less than 3 hours.
Logged
ODOT, raise the speed limit and fix our traffic problems.

Road and weather geek for life.

Running till I die.

CNGL-Leudimin

  • *
  • Offline Offline

  • Posts: 2682
  • When in doubt, US 41

  • Age: 26
  • Location: Across the pond
  • Last Login: Today at 10:36:17 AM
Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #533 on: October 24, 2018, 03:44:52 AM »

Wilma is retired in the Atlantic only. It could still replace Willa in the Eastern Pacific if needed. There are several names in the Eastern Pacific lists that have been retired in the Atlantic before the start of current lists (Celia and Dora come to mind). I wonder what NHC would do in the improbable case a storm named Celia makes it across the isthmus of Tehuantepec.
Logged
"Football", a quite ambiguous word for me. I assume "association" football instead of "American" football.

All times Eastern unless DST is in force only in the USA (Central in that case to preserve "6 hours behind my actual time") or otherwise noted

WillWeaverRVA

  • *
  • Offline Offline

  • Posts: 1464
  • Age: 35
  • Location: Richmond, VA
  • Last Login: Today at 09:43:40 AM
    • WillWeaverRVA Photography
Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #534 on: October 24, 2018, 12:01:46 PM »

The eye of Category 5 Super Typhoon Yutu is currently passing over Tinian in the Northern Mariana Islands with winds of 155 knots (180 mph), and the NOAA ASOS weather stations in Tinian and Saipan have both failed.
Logged
Will Weaver
WillWeaverRVA Photography | Twitter

"But how will the oxen know where to drown if we renumber the Oregon Trail?" - NE2

WillWeaverRVA

  • *
  • Offline Offline

  • Posts: 1464
  • Age: 35
  • Location: Richmond, VA
  • Last Login: Today at 09:43:40 AM
    • WillWeaverRVA Photography
Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #535 on: October 24, 2018, 12:05:01 PM »

Wilma is retired in the Atlantic only. It could still replace Willa in the Eastern Pacific if needed. There are several names in the Eastern Pacific lists that have been retired in the Atlantic before the start of current lists (Celia and Dora come to mind). I wonder what NHC would do in the improbable case a storm named Celia makes it across the isthmus of Tehuantepec.

NHC would not reuse Wilma in the Eastern Pacific. They'd find another name. The current lists in use in the Eastern Pacific were actually drawn up when a different agency was responsible for warning on hurricanes in that basin (the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Center out of San Francisco), and I'm sure if such a situation ever arose there would be some sort of contingency.
Logged
Will Weaver
WillWeaverRVA Photography | Twitter

"But how will the oxen know where to drown if we renumber the Oregon Trail?" - NE2

Beltway

  • *
  • Offline Offline

  • Posts: 6640
  • Roads to the Future

  • Location: Richmond, VA
  • Last Login: Today at 09:55:44 AM
Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #536 on: October 24, 2018, 05:37:23 PM »

NHC would not reuse Wilma in the Eastern Pacific. They'd find another name. The current lists in use in the Eastern Pacific were actually drawn up when a different agency was responsible for warning on hurricanes in that basin (the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Center out of San Francisco), and I'm sure if such a situation ever arose there would be some sort of contingency.

It is rare but a storm could cross Central America and have existed in both basins.  So that is a reason why to not utilize a name that has been retired from one of the basins.
« Last Edit: October 24, 2018, 11:15:02 PM by Beltway »
Logged
http://www.roadstothefuture.com
http://www.capital-beltway.com

Jim Jones killed 918 people with a barrel of Kool-Aid.

Baloney is a reserved word on the Internet
    (Robert Coté, 2002)

Hurricane Rex

  • *
  • Offline Offline

  • Posts: 1371
  • Speed 75 or bust. Keep on traveling.

  • Age: 19
  • Location: Sherwood Oregon (Dec, Jun-Sep), Corvallis, Oregon (Oct, Nov, Jan-May)
  • Last Login: February 28, 2020, 03:16:12 PM
Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #537 on: October 24, 2018, 11:55:00 PM »

NHC would not reuse Wilma in the Eastern Pacific. They'd find another name. The current lists in use in the Eastern Pacific were actually drawn up when a different agency was responsible for warning on hurricanes in that basin (the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Center out of San Francisco), and I'm sure if such a situation ever arose there would be some sort of contingency.

It is rare but a storm could cross Central America and have existed in both basins.  So that is a reason why to not utilize a name that has been retired from one of the basins.
The only impossibility is crossing from N to S hemispheres.

LG-TP260

Logged
ODOT, raise the speed limit and fix our traffic problems.

Road and weather geek for life.

Running till I die.

Beltway

  • *
  • Offline Offline

  • Posts: 6640
  • Roads to the Future

  • Location: Richmond, VA
  • Last Login: Today at 09:55:44 AM
Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #538 on: October 25, 2018, 06:09:54 AM »

]The only impossibility is crossing from N to S hemispheres.

Apparently it is possible, but there are no known examples yet.

https://www.soest.hawaii.edu/GG/ASK/hurricanes.html
Logged
http://www.roadstothefuture.com
http://www.capital-beltway.com

Jim Jones killed 918 people with a barrel of Kool-Aid.

Baloney is a reserved word on the Internet
    (Robert Coté, 2002)

CNGL-Leudimin

  • *
  • Offline Offline

  • Posts: 2682
  • When in doubt, US 41

  • Age: 26
  • Location: Across the pond
  • Last Login: Today at 10:36:17 AM
Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #539 on: October 25, 2018, 08:05:32 AM »

I remember late last year when the GFS went crazy and formed a "tropical anticyclone" just North of New Guinea which went to cross the Equator into the Northern Hemisphere. Even better, it bombed that system into a 871 mbar monster typhoon. In the end Tembin formed in the Northern Hemisphere and went West instead of North, and peaked only at category 2.
Logged
"Football", a quite ambiguous word for me. I assume "association" football instead of "American" football.

All times Eastern unless DST is in force only in the USA (Central in that case to preserve "6 hours behind my actual time") or otherwise noted

Beltway

  • *
  • Offline Offline

  • Posts: 6640
  • Roads to the Future

  • Location: Richmond, VA
  • Last Login: Today at 09:55:44 AM
Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #540 on: October 25, 2018, 09:13:29 AM »

The South Atlantic had a hurricane in 2004, the only one known in 200 years of modern storm tracking.

Vertical wind shears in the South Atlantic are usually too strong for hurricanes.  Winds in the upper troposphere (about 6 miles high) are 20+ mph faster than winds at the ocean surface.  This difference, or shear, rips storms apart before they intensify too much.
Logged
http://www.roadstothefuture.com
http://www.capital-beltway.com

Jim Jones killed 918 people with a barrel of Kool-Aid.

Baloney is a reserved word on the Internet
    (Robert Coté, 2002)

WillWeaverRVA

  • *
  • Offline Offline

  • Posts: 1464
  • Age: 35
  • Location: Richmond, VA
  • Last Login: Today at 09:43:40 AM
    • WillWeaverRVA Photography
Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #541 on: October 25, 2018, 11:10:11 AM »

]The only impossibility is crossing from N to S hemispheres.

Apparently it is possible, but there are no known examples yet.

https://www.soest.hawaii.edu/GG/ASK/hurricanes.html

It is theoretically possible given the relative lack of Coriolis force near the equator. The tropical low that gave rise to Tropical Cyclone Agni in the Arabian Sea in 2004 briefly crossed into the Southern Hemisphere and was noted by RSMC La Réunion in their end-of-season report. Several global models depicted Tropical Depression 09C in 2015 and Hurricane Pali in 2016 in the Central Pacific also crossing the equator, although neither system survived long enough to do so (although the remnants of Pali did straddle the equator before dissipating).

Outflow from low-latitude tropical cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere can extend across the Equator (it happens frequently with tropical cyclones in the South Pacific), and sometimes cutoff lows form that can give rise to tropical cyclones, although these aren't exactly "equator-crossing" systems.
Logged
Will Weaver
WillWeaverRVA Photography | Twitter

"But how will the oxen know where to drown if we renumber the Oregon Trail?" - NE2

Beltway

  • *
  • Offline Offline

  • Posts: 6640
  • Roads to the Future

  • Location: Richmond, VA
  • Last Login: Today at 09:55:44 AM
Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #542 on: October 25, 2018, 12:43:40 PM »

A tropical cyclone could possibly cross the equator if it was powerful and air masses directed it toward the equator at considerable speed.  However its rotation would have to stop and then reverse, so technically it would cease to be a tropical cyclone while crossing the equator, the eye would dissipate, and later after crossing the equator, the storm would reconstitute into a tropical cyclone rotating in the opposite direction.
Logged
http://www.roadstothefuture.com
http://www.capital-beltway.com

Jim Jones killed 918 people with a barrel of Kool-Aid.

Baloney is a reserved word on the Internet
    (Robert Coté, 2002)

WillWeaverRVA

  • *
  • Offline Offline

  • Posts: 1464
  • Age: 35
  • Location: Richmond, VA
  • Last Login: Today at 09:43:40 AM
    • WillWeaverRVA Photography
Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #543 on: October 25, 2018, 02:01:36 PM »

A tropical cyclone could possibly cross the equator if it was powerful and air masses directed it toward the equator at considerable speed.  However its rotation would have to stop and then reverse, so technically it would cease to be a tropical cyclone while crossing the equator, the eye would dissipate, and later after crossing the equator, the storm would reconstitute into a tropical cyclone rotating in the opposite direction.

...to be brutally honest that's probably one of the strangest things I have ever read. Physics don't work that way.
Logged
Will Weaver
WillWeaverRVA Photography | Twitter

"But how will the oxen know where to drown if we renumber the Oregon Trail?" - NE2

Beltway

  • *
  • Offline Offline

  • Posts: 6640
  • Roads to the Future

  • Location: Richmond, VA
  • Last Login: Today at 09:55:44 AM
Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #544 on: October 25, 2018, 08:31:15 PM »

A tropical cyclone could possibly cross the equator if it was powerful and air masses directed it toward the equator at considerable speed.  However its rotation would have to stop and then reverse, so technically it would cease to be a tropical cyclone while crossing the equator, the eye would dissipate, and later after crossing the equator, the storm would reconstitute into a tropical cyclone rotating in the opposite direction.
...to be brutally honest that's probably one of the strangest things I have ever read. Physics don't work that way.

You just posted that it was theoretically possible in a post this morning.
Logged
http://www.roadstothefuture.com
http://www.capital-beltway.com

Jim Jones killed 918 people with a barrel of Kool-Aid.

Baloney is a reserved word on the Internet
    (Robert Coté, 2002)

WillWeaverRVA

  • *
  • Offline Offline

  • Posts: 1464
  • Age: 35
  • Location: Richmond, VA
  • Last Login: Today at 09:43:40 AM
    • WillWeaverRVA Photography
Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #545 on: October 26, 2018, 09:39:39 AM »

A tropical cyclone could possibly cross the equator if it was powerful and air masses directed it toward the equator at considerable speed.  However its rotation would have to stop and then reverse, so technically it would cease to be a tropical cyclone while crossing the equator, the eye would dissipate, and later after crossing the equator, the storm would reconstitute into a tropical cyclone rotating in the opposite direction.
...to be brutally honest that's probably one of the strangest things I have ever read. Physics don't work that way.

You just posted that it was theoretically possible in a post this morning.

I meant that the process of a tropical cyclone spinning down, then spinning back up in the opposite direction upon crossing the Equator wouldn't work. If it remained at a low latitude where the Coriolis effect is negligible, the system would just continue as an anticyclonic circulation that would gradually spin down and dissipate.
Logged
Will Weaver
WillWeaverRVA Photography | Twitter

"But how will the oxen know where to drown if we renumber the Oregon Trail?" - NE2

Interstate 69 Fan

  • *
  • Offline Offline

  • Posts: 471
  • You cannot deny that I-69 will never be completed.

  • Age: 17
  • Location: Indianapolis, Indiana
  • Last Login: Today at 01:21:49 AM
Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #546 on: October 26, 2018, 09:53:36 AM »

TC’s can’t cross it because the Coriolis affect - there isn’t enough spin within 5 degrees of the equator.
Logged
Apparently I’m a fan of I-69.  Who knew.

bing101

  • *
  • Offline Offline

  • Posts: 3037
  • Last Login: March 29, 2020, 10:44:48 PM
Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #547 on: October 27, 2018, 01:16:58 AM »

Logged

Hurricane Rex

  • *
  • Offline Offline

  • Posts: 1371
  • Speed 75 or bust. Keep on traveling.

  • Age: 19
  • Location: Sherwood Oregon (Dec, Jun-Sep), Corvallis, Oregon (Oct, Nov, Jan-May)
  • Last Login: February 28, 2020, 03:16:12 PM
Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #548 on: October 27, 2018, 03:31:08 AM »

Another subtropical storm has formed: Oscar.

LG-TP260

Logged
ODOT, raise the speed limit and fix our traffic problems.

Road and weather geek for life.

Running till I die.

CNGL-Leudimin

  • *
  • Offline Offline

  • Posts: 2682
  • When in doubt, US 41

  • Age: 26
  • Location: Across the pond
  • Last Login: Today at 10:36:17 AM
Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #549 on: October 27, 2018, 06:37:19 AM »

Again, why the freak they name subtropical storms? I don't recognize them, and thankfully they reanalized Alberto to have been a fully tropical storm before landfall. IMO Chantal, Erin and Melissa (third M in a row) should have been retired in 2007 instead of Dean, Felix and Noel. I also don't recognize tropical storms that weren't named because they were missed when they happened, but I recognize the Perfect Storm of 1991 as advisories were issued on it even they left the otherwise hurricane Henri unnamed as it had caused destruction before becoming a hurricane.
« Last Edit: October 27, 2018, 06:43:29 AM by CNGL-Leudimin »
Logged
"Football", a quite ambiguous word for me. I assume "association" football instead of "American" football.

All times Eastern unless DST is in force only in the USA (Central in that case to preserve "6 hours behind my actual time") or otherwise noted

 


Opinions expressed here on belong solely to the poster and do not represent or reflect the opinions or beliefs of AARoads, its creators and/or associates.