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Author Topic: Tropical cyclone tracking thread  (Read 72158 times)

allniter89

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #600 on: September 15, 2019, 12:24:27 AM »


Very close to 100 this week :banghead:
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US 89

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #601 on: September 17, 2019, 04:44:06 PM »

Within a span of about an hour and a half, a new tropical depression formed, strengthened into Tropical Storm Imelda, and made landfall on Texas. It's looking like Houston and the rest of southeast Texas could get a hell of a lot of rain from this - probably not to Harvey or Allison levels, but a lot of flash flooding is expected in that area.
« Last Edit: September 17, 2019, 05:14:03 PM by US 89 »
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #602 on: September 23, 2019, 02:42:48 PM »

Well, within the last week, we've had three more storms spin up.  Jerry looks to be spreading a second round of wind and rain to Bermuda, Karen is out in the Caribbean, and Lorenzo is out by the Cape Verde region.

Meanwhile, in the Pacific, the forecaster gave us a couple of interesting advisory headlines:

..KIKO RESTRENGTHENS AS IT INCHES CLOSER TO THE END OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN...

...GAME OVER... ...MARIO BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...

Mario's quest as a tropical cyclone is over. The low has produced only a few small areas of intermittent convection during the last day or so, but with insufficient organization to be classified as a tropical cyclone. Therefore, Mario is now a remnant low and this is the last advisory.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #603 on: September 24, 2019, 03:33:12 AM »

The Atlantic has had five new tropical storms in just 10 days! Now that is crazy, or the season's peak.

Kiko is nowhere near the end of the Eastern Pacific, which I consider to include the so-called Central Pacific (much like Wikipedia does) and thus extends all the way to the 180 Meridian (which is also where hurricanes cease to be such and instead be referred to as typhoons). The -140 Meridian is just the NHC/CPHC boundary.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #604 on: September 24, 2019, 10:50:29 AM »

The Atlantic has had five new tropical storms in just 10 days! Now that is crazy, or the season's peak.

AIUI, September 10 is usually the Atlantic hurricane season's "peak."

As for Kiko and how to treat the Pacific between 140W and 180... remember, a storm that strengthens to a Storm here receives its name from a separate list than either the East or West Pacific basins. Obviously, in yesterday's headline, the forecaster was referring to the dividing line between RSMC Miami and RSMC Honolulu.

Today's Forecaster had this to say about Kiko:

Quote
Still, Kiko has been one for the record books and should enter the top 10 in longest-lived eastern Pacific tropical cyclones by midday Tuesday.

Also, It appears that Lorenzo is forecast to become a major hurricane, but will be a "true" fish spinner, passing to the east of Bermuda.
« Last Edit: September 24, 2019, 10:58:36 AM by route56 »
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US 89

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #605 on: September 29, 2019, 01:49:32 AM »

I stopped following Lorenzo after its 145 mph peak on Friday morning. Imagine my surprise when I checked the NHC this evening and saw it had restrengthened back to a 160 mph category 5.

Assuming the rating holds up in post-season analysis, this storm is breaking a bunch of records. It is by far the easternmost category 5 on record at 45W (previous record was Hugo at 54W), and also had the lowest pressure in an Atlantic hurricane east of 50W. It also makes 2019 only the seventh season on record to feature two category 5 Atlantic hurricanes.

The Atlantic has never seen a fish-spinning Category 5. Depending on how close it comes to the Azores, Lorenzo could well be the first. Unfortunately, it won't be a true fishspinner because a French barge sank in the storm; 3 people have been rescued but 11 are still missing.

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #606 on: September 29, 2019, 04:35:20 AM »

Lorenzo will join the 2005 iteration of Emily in the very short list of storms that reached category 5 and yet managed to survive in the naming list. Even further, Lorenzo will be the first such storm to have been operationally recognized as cat. 5, as Emily was only upgraded in the post-season reanalysis. I already theorized such a scenario where a category 5 monster doesn't get retired, and now I get to see it.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #607 on: December 01, 2019, 05:13:12 AM »

Okay, the Atlantic hurricane season has come to an end. A weird one, where my list of storms starts with Barry (skipping Andrea) and ends with Pablo and Sebastien (skipping Rebekah, thus Sebastien should have been Pablo). Chantal will remain in the list again thanks to a subtropical storm (which IMO shouldn't be named), it was spared from retirement in 2007 along with Erin and Melissa, and looks like Dorian will be struck down.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #608 on: December 01, 2019, 09:11:04 AM »

Okay, the Atlantic hurricane season has come to an end.

Good riddance!
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #609 on: December 01, 2019, 12:20:10 PM »

Okay, the Atlantic hurricane season has come to an end. A weird one, where my list of storms starts with Barry (skipping Andrea) and ends with Pablo and Sebastien (skipping Rebekah, thus Sebastien should have been Pablo). Chantal will remain in the list again thanks to a subtropical storm (which IMO shouldn't be named), it was spared from retirement in 2007 along with Erin and Melissa, and looks like Dorian will be struck down.

It will be a gray day if Dorian is struck down ;)
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #610 on: May 17, 2020, 06:19:17 PM »

It appears hurricane season has started a couple weeks early.. Tropical Storm ARTHUR has become the first named storm of the season. It is somewhat close to the coast, but will curve back in to the ocean.

Yes, I know this thread hasn't been replied to in months, but there hasn't been a hurricane in a long time, either.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #611 on: May 17, 2020, 06:24:14 PM »

It appears hurricane season has started a couple weeks early.. Tropical Storm ARTHUR has become the first named storm of the season. It is somewhat close to the coast, but will curve back in to the ocean.

Yes, I know this thread hasn't been replied to in months, but there hasn't been a hurricane in a long time, either.

Didn't the season start early last year, as well? NOAA may have to make some adjustments.

EDIT: Yes is did. Sub Tropical storm Andrea formed May 20, 2019,  dissipated May 21.
« Last Edit: May 17, 2020, 06:27:08 PM by US71 »
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US 89

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #612 on: May 17, 2020, 06:57:39 PM »

Didn't the season start early last year, as well?

Yep. So did the 2018 season. And the 2017 season. And the 2016 season. And the 2015 season, too.

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #613 on: May 17, 2020, 07:04:23 PM »

Didn't the season start early last year, as well?

Yep. So did the 2018 season. And the 2017 season. And the 2016 season. And the 2015 season, too.

Someone needs to inform Mother Nature when the season is supposed to begin ;)
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #614 on: May 18, 2020, 08:07:25 AM »

They claim it's the 6th year in a row the Atlantic has started too early. I don't think so, because I don't include subtropical storms and thus I consider the first storm in 2019 (Barry, which should have been Andrea) to have formed on July 11 instead, more than a month into the season.

Also, they cancelled the meeting in which they were to announce the retired names of 2019 (due to reasons known to everyone), so I temporarily consider the list for 2025 is the same as the one for 2019.

Anyway, I prefer the thing that is in the Bay of Bengal now, cyclone Amphan. Now that is ending a list with a bang. Earlier on I tracked cyclone Harold in the South Pacific, and a tropical depression in the Eastern Pacific... in April.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #615 on: May 18, 2020, 08:43:15 AM »

2020 Names:

Arthur
Bertha
Cristobal
Dolly
Edouard
Fay
Gonzalo
Hanna
Isaias
Josephine
Kyle
Laura
Marco
Nana
Omar
Paulette
Rene
Sally
Teddy
Vicky
Wilfred
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #616 on: May 18, 2020, 09:17:35 AM »

It appears hurricane season has started a couple weeks early.. Tropical Storm ARTHUR has become the first named storm of the season. It is somewhat close to the coast, but will curve back in to the ocean.

Yes, I know this thread hasn't been replied to in months, but there hasn't been a hurricane in a long time, either.

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #617 on: May 18, 2020, 12:40:52 PM »

Didn't the season start early last year, as well?

Yep. So did the 2018 season. And the 2017 season. And the 2016 season. And the 2015 season, too.

Wait, you mean for all those years, June 1st came and went earlier than our calendars indicated it did?  :-D
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #618 on: May 18, 2020, 12:56:50 PM »

They claim it's the 6th year in a row the Atlantic has started too early. I don't think so, because I don't include subtropical storms and thus I consider the first storm in 2019 (Barry, which should have been Andrea) to have formed on July 11 instead, more than a month into the season.


So how are they wrong based on what you think?
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #619 on: May 18, 2020, 02:38:08 PM »

It's the 1990 list in this year's rotation. 1990 was the first season to ever reach the N named storm.

Retired from that list are Cesar, Diana, Fran, Gustav, Hortense, Isidore, Klaus, Lili and Paloma.

Diana and Klaus were retired that year.

2020 Names:

Arthur
Bertha
Cristobal
Dolly
Edouard
Fay
Gonzalo
Hanna
Isaias
Josephine
Kyle
Laura
Marco
Nana
Omar
Paulette
Rene
Sally
Teddy
Vicky
Wilfred

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #620 on: May 18, 2020, 04:05:26 PM »

I should note this year's list is exactly the same as 2014's, as there were no retired names then.
So how are they wrong based on what you think?

They aren't by any means wrong. I respect their decisions, but I disagree with some, like the naming of subtropical storms. They are "almost, but not quite tropical", so I don't see the point of giving them names from the same list as fully tropical ones.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #621 on: May 18, 2020, 08:41:13 PM »

So how are they wrong based on what you think?
They aren't by any means wrong. I respect their decisions, but I disagree with some, like the naming of subtropical storms. They are "almost, but not quite tropical", so I don't see the point of giving them names from the same list as fully tropical ones.

The NHC obviously sees a point to it, though. Otherwise they wouldn't do it. And I'm going to go with what the experts say on this one.

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #622 on: June 01, 2020, 07:37:50 PM »

It's the first official day of the Atlantic Hurricane season, and we have our third tropical cyclone in the Gulf. It looks like TD 3 may get up to storm strength.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #623 on: June 02, 2020, 02:31:28 AM »

It's the first official day of the Atlantic Hurricane season, and we have our third tropical cyclone in the Gulf. It looks like TD 3 may get up to storm strength.
It may become a hurricane in the gulf too, some models have been forecasting a pressure in the 970s.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #624 on: June 02, 2020, 09:46:19 AM »

Lorenzo will join the 2005 iteration of Emily in the very short list of storms that reached category 5 and yet managed to survive in the naming list. Even further, Lorenzo will be the first such storm to have been operationally recognized as cat. 5, as Emily was only upgraded in the post-season reanalysis. I already theorized such a scenario where a category 5 monster doesn't get retired, and now I get to see it.
It goes double for Emily as that one made landfall (as a Category 4). Emily (2005) is one of the most surprising non-retirements in hurricane naming.
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