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Author Topic: Tropical cyclone tracking thread  (Read 74247 times)

1995hoo

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #650 on: August 24, 2020, 08:30:38 PM »

Two hurricanes and some corona should be the menu for a Jimmy Buffett tailgate, not the weather forecast.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #651 on: August 25, 2020, 12:04:08 AM »

Good news: Marco fell apart due to some strong wind shear, hitting Louisiana this afternoon as a weak 40 mph tropical storm. Other than some minor flooding and perhaps a few tornadoes on the Gulf Coast, not a whole lot of damage. It's now down to a tropical depression and probably will dissipate by tomorrow.

Bad news: Laura survived Cuba fairly well and is about to move into an extremely favorable environment for intensification in the Gulf of Mexico. The NHC is officially calling for a high-end category 2 landfall, although category 3 or 4 strength is definitely not out of the question. Currently, the most likely location for landfall is somewhere between Galveston, TX and Morgan City, LA.

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #652 on: August 25, 2020, 01:51:00 AM »

Perhaps the National Weather Service should add "Easy to Pronounce" to their criteria for choosing storm names.

The World Meteorological Organization maintains the hurricane list, not the US National Weather Service or the National Hurricane Center.

When the modern (i.e., the lists with alternating male and female names) were created, French and Spanish names were to be included to reflected the languages spoken in the other countries that are affected by Atlantic Hurricanes. 
« Last Edit: August 26, 2020, 01:45:05 AM by route56 »
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CoreySamson

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #653 on: August 25, 2020, 11:31:24 AM »

Bad news: Laura survived Cuba fairly well and is about to move into an extremely favorable environment for intensification in the Gulf of Mexico. The NHC is officially calling for a high-end category 2 landfall, although category 3 or 4 strength is definitely not out of the question. Currently, the most likely location for landfall is somewhere between Galveston, TX and Morgan City, LA.

Both local weather stations and the NHC have recently stated that the track of Laura will likely be further west of the current model, however, so a Texas landfall is all but assured. I’m going to board up later today.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #654 on: August 26, 2020, 01:12:59 AM »

Already up to a high end category 1 (90 mph) and likely rapidly intensifying as we speak.

NHC has pushed the expected landfall intensity to 120 mph, which is a mid-range category 3, but category 4 is definitely still a possibility. Latest guidance suggests a landfall somewhere in the Beaumont-Lake Charles area.

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #655 on: August 26, 2020, 12:06:49 PM »

NHS ain't mixing words about what's coming:

Quote
1. Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will
cause catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to
Intracoastal City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes.
This surge could penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate
coastline. Only a few hours remain to protect life and property and
all actions should be rushed to completion.

Time to find out how good the levees are in Port Arthur.
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MrManlet

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #656 on: August 26, 2020, 03:08:30 PM »

TWC is now saying that Lake Charles LA is expected to receive 15-20 FEET of storm surge. NWC office there has been evacuated. Hurricane is now Category 4 with 140 mph winds and 948 mb pressure.
« Last Edit: August 26, 2020, 03:38:13 PM by MrManlet »
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #657 on: August 26, 2020, 10:38:01 PM »

TWC is now saying that Lake Charles LA is expected to receive 15-20 FEET of storm surge. NWC office there has been evacuated. Hurricane is now Category 4 with 140 mph winds and 948 mb pressure.

I'm hearing a few say Laura might go to Cat 5. As bad as it's looking now, I would hope not.
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CoreySamson

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #658 on: August 27, 2020, 02:57:51 PM »

Well, Houston just dodged a bullet. Sadly, SW LA did not fare so well.

I wonder if it is safe at all anymore to drive on the I-10 bridge in Lake Charles, considering its very poor condition.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #659 on: August 27, 2020, 09:54:23 PM »

This is wild
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #660 on: August 28, 2020, 07:50:17 PM »

Laura went directly over my house yesterday as a cat-1 hurricane. She put on a wild show.

Day 2 of no power, and we are under a heat advisory for heat index of possibly 110+ through tomorrow.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #661 on: September 01, 2020, 03:32:24 PM »

At 11 EDT this morning (September 1, 2020) the NHC initiated advisories on "Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen." Within an hour and a half, the Hurricane Hunters determined that the system had realized its potential and became Tropical Storm Nana.

Meanwhile, we have a depression on the outswing that may still become an Omar.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #662 on: September 01, 2020, 04:42:29 PM »

At 11 EDT this morning (September 1, 2020) the NHC initiated advisories on "Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen." Within an hour and a half, the Hurricane Hunters determined that the system had realized its potential and became Tropical Storm Nana.

Meanwhile, we have a depression on the outswing that may still become an Omar.

That was especially impressive because the hurricane hunters went out there mostly to determine whether the system had a closed circulation, as that couldn't be verified from satellite data, and they probably figured they'd find a depression or maybe a weak tropical storm. Instead, they found 70 mph flight-level winds and a closed eyewall - which suggest a much stronger tropical storm. It's likely going to make landfall on Belize sometime during the day on Thursday - by which point it will probably be hurricane strength, and Belize will have had less than two days to prepare for it.

EDIT: the other depression just got upgraded to Omar, making it the earliest "O" storm ever and breaking the previous record (Ophelia 2005) by about a week.
« Last Edit: September 01, 2020, 04:53:37 PM by US 89 »
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route56

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #663 on: September 01, 2020, 06:18:38 PM »

BTW, from here until we start using Greek Letters, any new tropical storm that forms will have a name that will be used for the first time.

The first name, Paulette, replaced "Paloma" after 2008.
The remaining names (Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, Wilfred) have been on the list since the modern naming lists were implemented.


« Last Edit: September 02, 2020, 12:23:51 PM by route56 »
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CNGL-Leudimin

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #664 on: September 02, 2020, 08:33:45 AM »

After this year there will be only one list remaining that hasn't gone past P (Peter, 2003)... and it will be used next year.
The remaining names (Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, Wilfred) have been on the list since the modern naming lists were implemented.

Fixed.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #665 on: September 02, 2020, 12:33:58 PM »

After this year there will be only one list remaining that hasn't gone past P (Peter, 2003)... and it will be used next year.

There is, of course, no guarantee that next year will get to 'P' again. After all, 2006 only got to 'I.'

As for spelling....

I would consider Debby, Fay, and Hanna to be alternate spellings of Debbie, Faye, and Hannah, which were used in the pre-1979 lists.

In fact, Debbie (used 4 times) and Debby (7 times) combined would match Arlene (11 times with the same spelling) for most-used Atlantic Tropical Cyclone name.

OTOH, since they are pronounced differently, I have to consider Ana and Anna to be separate names, and the later name to be unlikely to be used for the foreseeable future.
« Last Edit: September 02, 2020, 12:36:54 PM by route56 »
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #666 on: September 03, 2020, 12:40:41 AM »

Nana has now strengthened to a Category 1 hurricane as it bears down on Central America. If there’s any good news, it’s that the storm is unlikely to intensify much more before it makes landfall on Belize tomorrow. Most likely landfall point will be somewhere between Belize City and the Guatemala border, where a Hurricane Warning has been issued.

Also, Omar is starting to fall apart as expected - after peaking at 40 mph (barely strong enough for TS status), it was downgraded to a tropical depression earlier today and probably won’t survive the night. Attention now turns to two disturbances in the eastern tropical Atlantic. By the end of this weekend, we’ll probably be on our earliest P storm ever.

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #667 on: September 05, 2020, 12:02:07 PM »

Omar is still kicking  :-D :-D
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #668 on: September 05, 2020, 11:19:38 PM »

Omar is still kicking  :-D :-D

Did it set the record for most advisories issued on a storm below 45 mph? It had 21. Absolutely nuts.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #669 on: September 07, 2020, 01:23:03 AM »

The remnants of Nana created an tropical storm in the East Pacific. Since the low level circulation dissipated and did not maintain itself as a tropical cyclone, we have "Julio," which apparantly isn't long for the world, as it has since been downgraded to a depression.

Back in the Atlantic, one of the systems that had been projected to become a tropical cyclone became TD 17. Expect "Paulette" any day now :)

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #670 on: September 07, 2020, 06:05:36 AM »

What a pity Julio didn't form in July (that month is also julio in Spanish). It didn't either in 2014 (but it wasn't that far off that time).

Meanwhile at the other end of the Pacific, the Korean peninsula has been hit by three typhoons in a row: Bavi, Maysak and now Haishen. The next name is a North Korean one :sombrero:.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #671 on: September 07, 2020, 06:41:38 PM »

Back in the Atlantic, one of the systems that had been projected to become a tropical cyclone became TD 17. Expect "Paulette" any day now :)

She's here already - and Rene is right behind her. Rene will get a little bit stronger than Paulette (with a shot at hurricane status) but both are likely to recurve into the central Atlantic with little to no land impact. The next wave behind Rene might be another story, though.

Another area to watch is southwest of Bermuda. Although this is less likely to develop than the wave currently over Africa, it's worth watching as some model runs have suggested it could organize and make landfall over the Carolinas as a weak tropical storm.

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #672 on: September 09, 2020, 04:38:55 PM »

The Atlantic basin is now up to Rene, with Sally and Teddy likely soon to follow once those tropical waves get off Africa. I remember the 2005 season and thought that one was anomalous.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #673 on: September 11, 2020, 02:07:31 PM »

I'm predicting that 2020 will be the year forecasters are faced with the problem of choosing to retire a storm name that's a Greek letter.  We might need to devise a better system for seasons with more than 20 named storms.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #674 on: September 11, 2020, 05:28:05 PM »

I'm predicting that 2020 will be the year forecasters are faced with the problem of choosing to retire a storm name that's a Greek letter.  We might need to devise a better system for seasons with more than 20 named storms.

I seriously doubt they will retire  Greek letter. I'd be very surprised.
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