Coronavirus pandemic

[1995hoo]

[jakeroot]

I would be in favor of a permanent travel ban on China. I mean really what do you need them for anyways? They are not are friends they haven't been for a really long time.

I disagree, they are a huge trading partner and it would be an economic disaster unto itself.  I haven't had a chance to reply to JN yet but I think he's right on the money about why new infections tend crop up in Asia first.

Yeah they have taken lots of our jobs away. They aren't are friends and never will be again. It's time that we get rid of that made in China label for good and make our own stuff again.

As a consumer, trade is a very good thing. It's what gives you choice. Deciding between a single American-made product and nothing else benefits the manufacturer only.

I'll be more happy to "buy American" once we start building quality stuff, and/or have better quality control. My car was made in Mexico, to the chagrin of many Americans, but it's screwed together nice and tight.

[Max Rockatansky]

I would be in favor of a permanent travel ban on China. I mean really what do you need them for anyways? They are not are friends they haven't been for a really long time.

I disagree, they are a huge trading partner and it would be an economic disaster unto itself.  I haven't had a chance to reply to JN yet but I think he's right on the money about why new infections tend crop up in Asia first.

Yeah they have taken lots of our jobs away. They aren't are friends and never will be again. It's time that we get rid of that made in China label for good and make our own stuff again.

As a consumer, trade is a very good thing. It's what gives you choice. Deciding between a single American-made product and nothing else benefits the manufacturer only.

I'll be more happy to "buy American" once we start building quality stuff, and/or have better quality control. My car was made in Mexico, to the chagrin of many Americans, but it's screwed together nice and tight.

Problem with things made in the America was the 1970s and 1980s happened.  Those two decades saw a huge downturn in domestic made products and the beginning of outsourcing due to high manufacturing costs.  The last two decades have done a lot to turn the corner on the perception of American build quality but it definitely nowhere near what it was...nor likely will be again. 

[US71]

I'll be more happy to "buy American" once we start building quality stuff, and/or have better quality control. My car was made in Mexico, to the chagrin of many Americans, but it's screwed together nice and tight.

But it's cheaper to make things in Mexico or China. They don't have pesky things like Minimum Wage or environmental standards which add to the cost of everything.

[Duke87]

I've never really understood how you "close" a park. It's just an area set aside for recreational use. Most city parks around here don't really have a fence or anything around them you could lock up, so you'd have to station police there 24/7 while the park is closed, and Norman probably has more parks than it does police officers.

In many cases, they put up snow fences around playground equipment to keep kids off them. Yes, it's somewhat of an honor system. People need to stop making it like a challenge though to find ways around bans.

In the case of our local park, there is a sign on the gate to the baseball field that says "fields closed" and caution tape around the playground equipment. Otherwise, there's nothing saying you can't walk or bike around in there, and I've seen people doing so, but they're not congregating so that's fine.

The Italian experience suggests it takes a few days for a lockdown to "bite" and for the daily rate of increase in cases to slow--in their case, from 20%-30% for the first few days to 13% for a few days.  Yesterday's increase was only 10%, which may be a sign a favorable trend is beginning.

This is certainly encouraging, because it means Italy is now the first nation outside of Asia to have some success in bending the curve back. This means results can be achieved with less-authoritarian western government and less-disciplined western culture.

Wuhan locked down on January 23.  It is now two months later and just after the start of a two-week period of no new cases in Hubei, at the end of which there may be some relaxation of restrictions.  So my baseline is at least three months for mandatory lockdowns in the US and many months of additional delay (until the development of effective treatment outside ICUs or the adoption and widespread availability of a vaccine) before things return completely to normal.

I've seen some of the conversations about COVID-19 and its effects on road meets in the road meet board, and frankly I have to shake my head.  I'm basically in agreement with those who advocate wait-and-see, but I wouldn't be looking hard for road meets to be held until July at the very earliest.

Regarding the baseline out of China, it is important to note that you're looking at the experience in Wuhan specifically - THE ground zero of the virus. Other parts of the country were not as badly hit and were able to both have fewer restrictions and release them sooner.

The US is a similarly large country and the virus' impact here is going to be geographically disparate. We are already seeing geographic disparity in severity and timing of restriction implementation, and it's likely fair to say we will see geographic disparity in when and by how much restrictions are loosened.

Thus, I'd expect we will see a time period where road meets will be able to be held in some parts of the country but not others, and will be able to be attended by people who live in some parts of the country but not others.

Right now it looks like people in the northeast and on the west coast (naturally, the most densely populated areas, and the ones that welcome the most international visitors) may have to wait a bit longer for a return to normalcy than the rest of the country...

[kalvado]

\

The Italian experience suggests it takes a few days for a lockdown to "bite" and for the daily rate of increase in cases to slow--in their case, from 20%-30% for the first few days to 13% for a few days.  Yesterday's increase was only 10%, which may be a sign a favorable trend is beginning.

This is certainly encouraging, because it means Italy is now the first nation outside of Asia to have some success in bending the curve back. This means results can be achieved with less-authoritarian western government and less-disciplined western culture.

Testing is the key. What I hear, Italy gave up not only on testing but on treatment as well. So those numbers are vaporware.
I hear the same thing for NY/NJ area as well.
Deaths may be somewhat appropriate metrics - but those wouldn't tell the full story until much later.

[Brandon]

I'll be more happy to "buy American" once we start building quality stuff, and/or have better quality control. My car was made in Mexico, to the chagrin of many Americans, but it's screwed together nice and tight.

But it's cheaper to make things in Mexico or China. They don't have pesky things like Minimum Wage or environmental standards which add to the cost of everything.

However, Mexico does have better standards than China, and I really don't mind things being made in Mexico and raising their standard of living closer to ours, as they are a part of us, North America.  I favor the three of us (Canada, US, Mexico) standing together with our smaller neighbors in Central America and the Caribbean.

[Max Rockatansky]

I'll be more happy to "buy American" once we start building quality stuff, and/or have better quality control. My car was made in Mexico, to the chagrin of many Americans, but it's screwed together nice and tight.

But it's cheaper to make things in Mexico or China. They don't have pesky things like Minimum Wage or environmental standards which add to the cost of everything.

However, Mexico does have better standards than China, and I really don't mind things being made in Mexico and raising their standard of living closer to ours, as they are a part of us, North America.  I favor the three of us (Canada, US, Mexico) standing together with our smaller neighbors in Central America and the Caribbean.

Usually we visit Mexico once a year.  Its nice being able to pick up some homemade crafted stuff at local Mercados and it being generally of a high quality.  A good percentage of the populace actually has a trade and/or craft skill which has become something of a rarity State Side. 

[bing101]

https://www.fox19.com/2020/03/22/watch-live-ky-gov-beshear-provides-update-covid-/


Update Kentucky has issued a "non essential Business Shutdown order"

[bing101]

Expect more cities and states to announce a "Non Essential Business shutdown order" or "Shelter in Place" order to happen this week.

[kalvado]

Expect more cities and states to announce a "Non Essential Business shutdown order" or "Shelter in Place" order to happen this week.

I heard the opposite, some creative quarantine lifting is coming

[bandit957]

I heard the opposite, some creative quarantine lifting is coming

Gosh, I hope so. We're deep in dangerous territory now.

[Scott5114]

I heard the opposite, some creative quarantine lifting is coming

Gosh, I hope so. We're deep in dangerous territory now.

I'd argue we've been in dangerous territory for the last ten years, but this crisis has just exposed why the economy hasn't really worked for a while.

[Duke87]

I heard the opposite, some creative quarantine lifting is coming

Gosh, I hope so. We're deep in dangerous territory now.

I'd argue we've been in dangerous territory for the last ten years, but this crisis has just exposed why the economy hasn't really worked for a while.

Some typing head had an op-ed piece a week or two ago prognosticating that "this virus is going to bankrupt more people than it kills".

Gotta say, the current path we're on seems to support this conclusion.

Especially dangerous is the fact that a lot of people are losing their health insurance right now as they get laid off...

[Scott5114]

Especially dangerous is the fact that a lot of people are losing their health insurance right now as they get laid off...

A virus closing down the economy and causing job losses is almost like an example you'd pull out of thin air to justify a belief as to why healthcare should not be tied to employment.

[Max Rockatansky]

I heard the opposite, some creative quarantine lifting is coming

Gosh, I hope so. We're deep in dangerous territory now.

I'd argue we've been in dangerous territory for the last ten years, but this crisis has just exposed why the economy hasn't really worked for a while.

Some typing head had an op-ed piece a week or two ago prognosticating that "this virus is going to bankrupt more people than it kills".

Gotta say, the current path we're on seems to support this conclusion.

Especially dangerous is the fact that a lot of people are losing their health insurance right now as they get laid off...

I have a friend who's already approaching bankruptcy due to the virus.  He already had to lay off ten employees because there was no way to pay given that the revenue essentially went to zero overnight.  His business we doing okay but they definitely couldn't afford to close up shop like so many other businesses that were deemed non-essential. 

[hbelkins]

Obviously, I have no evidence that this is a biological weapon, but it's not an impossibility either. And it's certainly not as if the ChiComs care about their populace. Those types of dictators have no qualms about hurting their own people to take down an enemy.

[US71]

Especially dangerous is the fact that a lot of people are losing their health insurance right now as they get laid off...

A virus closing down the economy and causing job losses is almost like an example you'd pull out of thin air to justify a belief as to why healthcare should not be tied to employment.

Interesting theory.

[kalvado]

Obviously, I have no evidence that this is a biological weapon, but it's not an impossibility either. And it's certainly not as if the ChiComs care about their populace. Those types of dictators have no qualms about hurting their own people to take down an enemy.

Well, there is a much better case to build about virus modification research on the opposite side of the world.
https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/lab-made-coronavirus-triggers-debate-34502
NCSU actually did a bit of research towards weaponising coronavirus. Officially, that research was banned shortly after - but maybe it was just classified?...

[TheHighwayMan3561]

The greatest fault of the US is the disjointed response at every turn as various agendas emerged within government, business, and social circles trying to contradict and downplay each other to protect themselves and their interests.

[TheHighwayMan3561]

I would be in favor of a permanent travel ban on China. I mean really what do you need them for anyways? They are not are friends they haven't been for a really long time.

I disagree, they are a huge trading partner and it would be an economic disaster unto itself.  I haven't had a chance to reply to JN yet but I think he's right on the money about why new infections tend crop up in Asia first.

Yeah they have taken lots of our jobs away. They aren't are friends and never will be again. It's time that we get rid of that made in China label for good and make our own stuff again.

China took no US jobs.

US corporations willingly gave them to China (and Vietnam, Malaysia, et al)

[AlexandriaVA]

I would be in favor of a permanent travel ban on China. I mean really what do you need them for anyways? They are not are friends they haven't been for a really long time.

I disagree, they are a huge trading partner and it would be an economic disaster unto itself.  I haven't had a chance to reply to JN yet but I think he's right on the money about why new infections tend crop up in Asia first.

Yeah they have taken lots of our jobs away. They aren't are friends and never will be again. It's time that we get rid of that made in China label for good and make our own stuff again.

China took no US jobs.

US corporations willingly gave them to China (and Vietnam, Malaysia, et al)

And Mexico.

And particularly, machines. One worker using advanced machinery (e.g. robots) can make many more products than an army of blue-collar workers on an assembly line several generations ago. As productivity goes up, labor utilization goes down.

This has all been true for decades. None of this is new.

[J N Winkler]

The Italian experience suggests it takes a few days for a lockdown to "bite" and for the daily rate of increase in cases to slow--in their case, from 20%-30% for the first few days to 13% for a few days.  Yesterday's increase was only 10%, which may be a sign a favorable trend is beginning.

This is certainly encouraging, because it means Italy is now the first nation outside of Asia to have some success in bending the curve back. This means results can be achieved with less-authoritarian western government and less-disciplined western culture.

Testing is the key. What I hear, Italy gave up not only on testing but on treatment as well. So those numbers are vaporware.

I hear the same thing for NY/NJ area as well.

Deaths may be somewhat appropriate metrics - but those wouldn't tell the full story until much later.

Today's numbers are in the same direction:  confirmed cases up only 8%, 50 fewer deaths today than the day before.

[kalvado]

The Italian experience suggests it takes a few days for a lockdown to "bite" and for the daily rate of increase in cases to slow--in their case, from 20%-30% for the first few days to 13% for a few days.  Yesterday's increase was only 10%, which may be a sign a favorable trend is beginning.

This is certainly encouraging, because it means Italy is now the first nation outside of Asia to have some success in bending the curve back. This means results can be achieved with less-authoritarian western government and less-disciplined western culture.

Testing is the key. What I hear, Italy gave up not only on testing but on treatment as well. So those numbers are vaporware.

I hear the same thing for NY/NJ area as well.

Deaths may be somewhat appropriate metrics - but those wouldn't tell the full story until much later.

Today's numbers are in the same direction:  confirmed cases up only 8%, 50 fewer deaths today than the day before.

I just got a word from a friend in a major NYC hospital. It is beyond bad.
Oncologist needed to test a patient who is exhibiting moderate symptoms and need to decide if they should go ahead with therapy or postpone it.
Interrupting therapy if patient is actually having a virus means severe decrease of survival probability.
Pulling all the strings, the doctor couldn't secure a test. No tests left, those few in reserves are reserved for those heading towards intensive care.

[Bruce]

Boeing will shut down all operations in Western Washington beginning on Wednesday for a two-week period. One worker at the Everett plant died.

This comes a few days after Everett specifically allowed Boeing to continue as an "essential" business, which is a bit absurd given the situation. Sad that it took a death to get things done right.