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Author Topic: Tropical cyclone tracking thread  (Read 53842 times)

Thing 342

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #50 on: September 29, 2015, 11:51:19 PM »

Many of the models seem to want to take the system right over VA, particularly over the New River Valley, where we've already had 6-7 inches of rain in the past week.  However, the system is in a pretty complex setup currently, and the models haven't been very accurate with this system (it was initially forecast to peak as a TD) or this season as a whole. It could still hit anywhere north of Miami, or it could avoid any land at all and head out to sea.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #51 on: September 30, 2015, 08:24:42 AM »

Upgraded to a hurricane as of the 8 am advisory.  The model have shifted significantly westward too.

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #52 on: September 30, 2015, 09:27:58 AM »

^^ Intermediate advisory. I was expecting the 5 a.m. full advisory to have a hurricane but nope.

A bit of trivia: Joaquin replaced Juan after the 2003 season, which featured a category 2 hurricane slamming into Nova Scotia, but 2009 ended just short of that name.

Hm, Japan says there is now a tropical depression to the East of the Philippines, which is Invest 90W, the very same disturbance the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has issued a TC Formation Alert on. Models say this won't become a tropical storm until it gets onto the South China sea, and they also develop 99W into a typhoon. I'm also interested on this because the next name in the Western Pacific list is North Korean :sombrero:.
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CNGL-Leudimin

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #53 on: September 30, 2015, 12:51:08 PM »

Some key messages from NHC:
Quote from: NHC
1. Confidence in the details of the track forecast late in the
period remains low, since the environmental steering currents are
complex and the model guidance is inconsistent.  A wide range of
outcomes is possible, from a direct impact of a major hurricane
along the U.S. east coast to a track of Joaquin out to sea away from
the coast.  It is therefore way too soon to talk about specific
wind, rain, or surge impacts from Joaquin in the U.S.

2. Should the threat to the U.S. increase, any further adjustments
of the forecast to the west would likely be accompanied by an
increase in the forecast forward speed, with impacts along the coast
occurring sooner than currently forecast. A hurricane watch could
be required for portions of the U.S. coast as early as Thursday
evening.

3. Many areas of the eastern U.S. are currently experiencing heavy
rains and gusty winds associated with a frontal system.  This
inclement weather is expected to continue over the next few days,
which could complicate preparations for Joaquin should it head
toward the coast.

As of the last advisory and since I use the recommended definition of sustained winds (That's it, 10-minute average instead of 1-minute NHC uses), I have Joaquin with maximum winds of 70 mph.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #54 on: September 30, 2015, 03:01:17 PM »

Boy oh boy. A dominant Super-High dominating the Midwest and Canada, its steering winds pulling moisture and the general path straight into the East Coast, and a frontal system with waves riding it up.

Someone is gonna get clobbered between Richmond VA and Boston MA.   
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #55 on: September 30, 2015, 06:07:00 PM »

People are already buying generators and stocking up on fuel here. Honestly I'll take the rain over the wind, at least I know how bad the flooding in the basement gets.
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Thing 342

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #56 on: September 30, 2015, 08:01:02 PM »

Joaquin continues to rapidly intensify, now a 105-mph Category 2 storm: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/302357.shtml
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #57 on: September 30, 2015, 09:24:57 PM »

Each forecast update thus far seems to be dragging the projected landfall further south. It went from centered on Long Island to New Jersey to Delaware and now it's NC/VA. But the models are still all over the place. So it's going to hit the east coast somewhere between Georgia and Maine, I guess. No cause for anyone to panic yet but of course everyone has to keep an eye on it due to the lack of certainty.
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CNGL-Leudimin

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #58 on: October 01, 2015, 10:34:25 AM »

Joaquin is now the only named cyclone after Marty dissipated early this morning, unless one counts TD 22W which Philippines has unofficially named Kabayan, which I consider still a depression despite the JTWC calling it a storm simply because Japan has not said so yet and thus has not named it. Joaquin is now a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph (1-min, NHC official) or 105 mph (10-min, my estimate) winds.

BTW, I didn't knew a hurricane could have a beta phase like videogames, doesn't it? :sombrero:


Hurricane β. It's obvious from which season is.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #59 on: October 01, 2015, 02:08:35 PM »

Models have diverged, figures. Half now have a landfall somewhere between DC and NYC. The other half is split, a quarter send it off to the N. Atlantic, the other quarter have it offshore and turns towards Massachusetts and New England/Nova Scotia.

I have a feeling we should pay attention to the frontal system that has brought the first taste of autumn. The stationary boundary is gonna be key as to where and how Joaquin behaves
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #60 on: October 01, 2015, 02:12:47 PM »

Joaquin looks pretty fearsome:
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #61 on: October 01, 2015, 02:52:45 PM »

Joaquin is now a Cat 4
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #62 on: October 02, 2015, 11:33:46 AM »

Joaquin is trending more and more out to sea with the last couple of updates. Carolina's are about to get a 3 month period of rain in less than 2 days possibly
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #63 on: October 02, 2015, 02:43:54 PM »

Warning: North Korean storm now active! Tropical Storm Mujigae in the South China Sea, also known as Kabayan in the Philippines. And Tropical Storm Choi-Wan South of Wake Island in a new epic fail of the JTWC, they still had a tropical cyclone formation alert when Japan named it, and they still have it as a tropical depression.
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Thing 342

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #64 on: October 03, 2015, 12:01:28 PM »

Remember when the initial forecasts for 11L / Joaquin didn't even have it attaining TS status? Well now it's close to being a Category 5 Hurricane:

...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS SEVERE HURRICANE JOAQUIN WITH 155 MPH
WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 71.6W
ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM NE OF SAN SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES

Imagine the panic if it was still on a course for the US...
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #65 on: October 03, 2015, 12:52:21 PM »



Joaquin + plume of moisture slamming SC / NC at about 12:00 PM.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #66 on: October 03, 2015, 01:32:45 PM »

Category 4 right now - about 100 miles east of Miami, Florida. Bermuda's on hurricane watch, and it's still expected to steer clear of the east coast.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #67 on: October 08, 2015, 12:05:15 PM »

Joaquin is now tropically gone, but still alive as a extratropical cyclone which will bring bad weather to my country by the weekend. It peaked just shy of category 5, it would have been the first one since Felix in 2007. And all other basins have had at least a category 5 cyclone since 2010 (counting the CPac with the EPac).

BTW, there have been a ton of hawaiian names usde this year, eight of them, and then they can get stuck for years before the next name of the list is used. The names were Ela (Bad name IMO, ELA is Spanish for ALS), Halola (tracked all the way to Asia!), Iune, Kilo (did the same as Halola), Loke, Malia, Niala and Oho (which has just become extratropical now).
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #68 on: October 08, 2015, 12:24:38 PM »

Oho about to give Alaska a hard time, mainly the panhandle and Juneau
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #69 on: October 23, 2015, 01:05:49 AM »

Reconnaissance mission finding 180 kt flight-level winds and a 890 mbar central pressure in Patricia, which would be the record for the deepest system ever to form in the Pacific west of 180W, beating both the EPac record holder Linda (1997, 902 mbar) and the CPac record holder Ioke (2006, 900 mbar)
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #70 on: October 23, 2015, 09:40:18 AM »

Reconnaissance mission finding 180 kt flight-level winds and a 880 mbar central pressure in Patricia, which would be the record for the deepest system ever to form in the Pacific east of 180, beating the EPac record holder Linda (1997, 902 mbar)

Fixed. Ioke only reached 915 hPa (same as mbar). And I count the CPac together with the EPac like Wikipedia does.

Hurricane Patricia is really crazy. It was only named on Wednesday, but yesterday by 2:00 p.m. it was already category 4. When I woke up today, Patricia was already far into category 5, and I awaited for the 5:00 a.m. advisory. I thought I would never see a tropical cyclone hitting 200 mph, but that was before Patricia formed. And those were measured by the Hurricane Hunters.

Patricia is so strong, that it has triggered something never seen before. Normally, the 1 min estimate in knots and my 10 min estimate in mph both yield the same value, but Patricia is estimated to have 1 min winds of 175 knots and my 10 min estimate yields a value of 180 mph.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #71 on: October 23, 2015, 11:15:29 AM »

Quote
but Patricia is estimated to have 1 min winds of 175 knots and my 10 min estimate yields a value of 180 mph.

I presume you understand the difference between knots and mph, yes?
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #72 on: October 23, 2015, 02:25:39 PM »

Quote
but Patricia is estimated to have 1 min winds of 175 knots and my 10 min estimate yields a value of 180 mph.

I presume you understand the difference between knots and mph, yes?


175 knots is around 200mph, I think.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #73 on: October 23, 2015, 02:56:52 PM »

Quote
but Patricia is estimated to have 1 min winds of 175 knots and my 10 min estimate yields a value of 180 mph.

I presume you understand the difference between knots and mph, yes?


175 knots is around 200mph, I think.

1 knot = 1.151 mph

Hence, 175 knots is 201.425 mph.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knot_%28unit%29
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #74 on: October 23, 2015, 03:23:44 PM »

Patricia's course is about a couple hundred or so miles west of Manazillo. It's also 517 miles from Mexico City, but it's course seems to be northward towards the US, towards New Mexico and Texas.
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